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  #221  
Old 29.06.2015, 00:44
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Technically (I learned), the IMF is not required to declare a default until a month from Tuesday.
As of Tuesday, they'll simply be "in arrears".

So, everybody is working behind the scenes now to try to dig themselves out of the holes they dug themselves in.

My guess would be that this will end-up in another 100+ billion write-off of Greek debt - either way.
The politicians just have no clue yet how to sell that to their voters, in light of austerity-measures and cuts they had to suffer on their own...

And of course, nobody wants to be the one who puts the dagger into Greece (and eventually the Euro, if that is what comes out). That's probably the reason why the ECB has so far continued to provide ELA (which, given the circumstances, in itself is an almost criminal act IMO).

This, of course, shows the larger problem of Europe: nobody wants to make decisions that hurt or make voters unhappy, until it's too late - and then the problem has usually grown so much that the original, hurtful fix isn't even enough anymore.
But knowing our politicians, this mixed game of Jenga and "first one to move loses the game" will continue for a while.

"Everybody gets the politicians they deserve".
About "My guess would be that this will end-up in another 100+ billion write-off of Greek debt - either way. "
According to the BBC today - Greek debt 323 Billion euro.
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Old 29.06.2015, 01:15
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

323 + whatever the ECB has loaned for the banks to keep running for the past few months + the money owed to the social system (integrated pension funds and health insurance providers) in the coming 2-3 years brings the total number to about 1 trillion.


Anyway, what seems to have happened is this:

Troika delivers an 8.5 bil package that SYRIZA believes crosses red lines.
SYRIZA counter-proposes an essentially identical plan that goes to a little over 8 billion.

Throughout Friday people, including the greek delegation, are working to come together. Tsipras takes a flight home, and when he lands he basically calls Merkel and tells her he's having a referendum. The greek delegation learnt about it on Twitter...

Essentially Tsipras did not want to bring the near-agreement to his party because of a radical hard-core that is completely out of touch with reality or have intense Drachma-related interests and even investing positions.

Instead of putting the country over his party, he did the opposite and threw the country in panic and the shitter...


Long story short, banks will be closed for until Monday the 6th and will open again on Tue the 7th (supposedly; I don't see it happening tbh).

Capital controls that are not clearly defined yet, but initial leaks from the ministers' meeting right now are saying 120EUR/day/account. Other running rumor is 60EUR/day/account.

For some reason, payments via card (debit & credit) are not going to be processed.

Pensions are either already paid for July, or are going to be paid without problems on Monday and Tuesday, but many senior citizens do not have ATM cards, and cannot access their funds so they can pay rent, bills, groceries, etc. These people either don't have cards because they threw them away, or because in some cases banks don't issue cards to people over the age of 70sth. Don't ask why, that's what I see on the news.




On Sunday the 5th of July a nationwide referendum is being arranged. The vote is on whether the people agree that with the troika's proposal, or if they don't. A yes means that the gov will resign, elections, and the new gov will go and take whatever the troika throws at them. A no is more complicated. The gov says it doesn't mean Drachma, but it could mean more negotiation for a better agreement.

This is BS of course, they're just not going to admit whatever's coming. There is already a huge campaing from governing officials and MPs discussing about Greeks "not taking a knee". That's the rhetoric they're going with. Everyone except for the neo-nazis are against the very idea of the referendum and are strongly campaigning in favor of an agreement and stayin in the Euro no matter the cost.


The referendum has many problems:
1) it's probably a moot point. Technically the proposal from the troika is valid till Tue (if it's still alive that is). After that we're basically voting for something that doesn't exist.

2) the referendum is anti-constitutional. The constitution has provisions for a referendum, but clearly forbids one that is discussing matters of fiscal policy. It's spirit is clearly a matter of "strategic national importance". They are arguing that this vote is not strictly about fiscal policy, so they are allowed to move forward. Also they don't really give many flying f-fs, so who's going to stop them? Arguing the result would mean special constitutional court here, or escalating in the EU and that would take months if not years.

People are running to ATMs for the past two days, and tonight they're also running to fuel stations because they won't be able to pay for gas starting tomorrow.


From what I gather, a "yes" to the agreement and staying in the Euro will either win by a few points or lose by a landslide. Two separate polls weeks before had the Greeks wanting to stay in the EU and the Euro regardless of cost, one with about 60% and some 15% undecided, and the other with ~50% yes and more than 20% undecided.

The problem is that people want to stay, want Greece to change, but there is a critical mass of people, that due to f-ed up election laws elected a majority of 160/300 with just 35% of the votes, and that cannot give up the free meals they were taking for the last 30 years of hardcore socialism.

1/3 of Greeks wants to be supported by the rest, and the rest are going down in flames for that.

This is going to be a very interesting week, that's for sure...
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  #223  
Old 29.06.2015, 01:19
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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It has not been about debt repayment for along time! Take a good look at the EU proposals - it's been about trying to get the Greek government to restructure the economy in order to stem the flow! Five years, three governments and billions later and these guys are still debating about it rather than doing! Debt repayment was the only force that could be applied and it has not worked. The EU's position has always been to try and find a compromise but since the Greeks left the room so to speak the game appears to be over!
As I said, it's more about honesty (yeah, I had to chuckle) and cojones of the politicians.
Greece was never going to be able to pay back most of its debt. Ever. Period.
Everybody knew that in 2009 (most politicians denied), everybody knew it in 2012 (again most politicians denied) and now it dawns even to politicians that it might actually be the case that Greece will default. Oh, what a surprise!

Greece can't really restructure their economy in such a short time. It took a decade (or two) in a functioning, (super-strong) economy like Germany with real output of real goods (beyond honey, olive oil, fruits, pickled vegetables and goat-cheese), a mostly functional tax-collection system and an at least semi-efficient bureaucracy.
All of which Greece doesn't have, didn't get in the last six years (didn't get in the twenty years between 81 and 01, nor in the eight years between 01 and 09) and will almost certainly not acquire over night come next Tuesday.
But instead of acknowledging all that some five years ago (thereby, implicitly, acknowledging a mistake), they just tried to throw more money at the problem, bailing out private investors, institutional investors time and time again.
But dare you tell the tax-payer that the money is all gone. Because when Greece defaults, it's the tax-payer who gets the bill.
Too bad most of the politicians who thought they'd be retired already once the shit hits the fan are still in office!

And, just to make my rant complete, adding to that is a trend in the last six years that has its special nuances in every country individually: un-democratization.
Decisions are moved away from national parliaments and working groups into international high-level working groups (the so-called Euro-Group, the EU-commission - there's probably more). While ultimately, parliaments decide, the decisions are usually presented as "without alternative" and huge (hundreds of pages often), complicated international contracts with far-reaching consequences are literally thrown in front of the parliament with no time to debate (because the matter is urgent): "Just shut-up, vote with yes and be done with it. Until the next installment".
So, yes, in a way I criticize politicians for not making decisions and for making them. But that's essentially what is happening.

The whole thing would be even more depressing if it any of my tax-money was involved. Fortunately, that's currently not really the case ;-)
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  #224  
Old 29.06.2015, 01:26
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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About "My guess would be that this will end-up in another 100+ billion write-off of Greek debt - either way. "
According to the BBC today - Greek debt 323 Billion euro.
They'll cut that in three tranches (10-digit would be good - unfortunately the problem is too big already for 9-digit "sweep-it-under-the-rug"-write-offs).
Hoping that the first cut will last until the next election (whatever, whenever that is).
Also, there's the "Brexit-Referendum" at the horizon.
That one is really the elephant in the room, if you ask me.
Who gives a shit about Portugal or Cyprus (sorry)?
But Britain, that would be big.
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  #225  
Old 29.06.2015, 01:33
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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323 + whatever the ECB has loaned for the banks to keep running for the past few months
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerge...ity_Assistance
says it was 83 - on 2015-06-16.
It's now probably almost at 100.
And they debated for weeks over a couple of billions (and split over maybe half a billion), while ECB was paying that out in less than a week in the end...

You really have to ask if that sort of retiredness is a by-product of being a politician for too long or if it's a job-requirement.
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  #226  
Old 29.06.2015, 09:06
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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The problem is that people want to stay, want Greece to change, but there is a critical mass of people, that due to f-ed up election laws elected a majority of 160/300 with just 35% of the votes....
So a system that is roughly the same as the UK then.
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Old 29.06.2015, 09:46
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Sad that much poorer but more fiscally responsible peoples are paying for the sins of the Greeks.
Thanks for propagating last year´s myth of the "lazy , irresponsible Greeks" as opposed to the "model students": Portoguese, Irish etc. who overcame austerity by emmigrating abroad en masse to survive.
You are correct in mentioning the fraud that took place upon Greece´s entry into the Monetary Union. Only that the fraud did not take place without "Europe´s" consent.
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  #228  
Old 29.06.2015, 09:51
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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"Everybody gets the politicians they deserve".
Did the Germans deserve Hitler then?

Frankly I'm sick of listening lessons from countries which dragged all Europe into the war machine, from countries who had colonies and stole from everywhere as much as they could.
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  #229  
Old 29.06.2015, 10:10
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Update:

Banks closed until coming Monday. The only personnel allowed in banks is people that will work in the capital control implementation measures. Some branches will open for withdrawals from special groups of people (basically senior citizens).

Withdrawals are at 60EUR/day/card, so even if you have a card with 5 different accounts linked, you can only take that amount in total.

Credit/debit card transactions and e-banking transactions are being processed as normal only for intra-national parties. International transactions are on hold until the capital control measures are finalised next week and implemented in full.

Edit: Cards issued by foreign banks have no limitations in withdrawals, or processed payments while in Greece, so tourists are completely unaffected by the whole banking situation right now.


The public panic that has been spread, is not due to the referendum but rather due to the fact tomorrow the programme is ending without any agreement to extend it whatsoever.

There are a lot of people trying to explain what a "no" at the referendum will mean, and unfortunately also a lot of people that say "I don't have money in the bank, I don't care if it'e Euro or Drachma. These people don't really understand how banks are functioning and what they are providing in a modern society, and don't understand that whatever lifestyle level they have, however poor it may seem, will be severely compromised further come Monday with a negative result.

The shit has officially hit the fan...
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  #230  
Old 29.06.2015, 10:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

My feeling is that if the Greeks can demonstrate the testicular fortitude needed to show the EU elites the stink finger, default on its debts (immorally acquired) and create a new Drachma currency, then...
- within about one year or so the Greek economy will turn up and the beginning of a boom will be seen.
- the power of Washington (and NATO) over its European vassal states will be significantly decreased.
If this happens Europe will be the greater for it.

I still can't believe independent European thinkers have come so far towards diminishing the power of this EU monstrosity.
Will it happen? Unfortunately, I still have my doubts!
Maybe it will come to an assana.... sorry, an accident where key members of the Greek government unfortunately die.

One way or another we can only sit and watch, and hope!
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  #231  
Old 29.06.2015, 10:48
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Did the Germans deserve Hitler then?

Frankly I'm sick of listening lessons from countries which dragged all Europe into the war machine, from countries who had colonies and stole from everywhere as much as they could.
You want to invoke Godwin's Law?
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  #232  
Old 29.06.2015, 11:07
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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My feeling is that if the Greeks can demonstrate the testicular fortitude needed to show the EU elites the stink finger, default on its debts (immorally acquired) and create a new Drachma currency, then...
- within about one year or so the Greek economy will turn up and the beginning of a boom will be seen.
- the power of Washington (and NATO) over its European vassal states will be significantly decreased.
If this happens Europe will be the greater for it.

I still can't believe independent European thinkers have come so far towards diminishing the power of this EU monstrosity.
Will it happen? Unfortunately, I still have my doubts!
Maybe it will come to an assana.... sorry, an accident where key members of the Greek government unfortunately die.

One way or another we can only sit and watch, and hope!
You've taken a complete leave of your senses and have no idea how the Greek economy stands: Greece is exporting about 27 billion EUR and is importing 48 billion. Please explain how a severely inflational Drachma will bring prosperity in a country that is not self sustainable in many areas - including agriculture... Even for the few things we have great comparative advantages (boxite, aluminum, rice, to name but a few), the producers would rather sell for hard currency abroad than sell it for worthless Drachmas in the country.


These kinds of simplistic, 5-minute analysis, is what most of the public is doing and is shooting totally uninformed "opinions" about something they've read on a column and for which the only pre-existing information they have is based on prejudice and stereotypes that is on the same level as the "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" in France, or the "nazi" Germany.
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  #233  
Old 29.06.2015, 12:28
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I was in Germany this morning and while we were waiting we turned on the radio and listened to the Presseschau. Some of the stuff the journalists are penning would have been pretty comical were the issue not so serious. Some of them came pretty close to invoking Godwin on the Greeks.
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Old 29.06.2015, 12:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I was in Germany this morning and while we were waiting we turned on the radio and listened to the Presseschau. Some of the stuff the journalists are penning would have been pretty comical were the issue not so serious. Some of them came pretty close to invoking Godwin on the Greeks.
I can well believe it!
The Western media is prostituting itself to the elites and has very little value listening to or reading...as a poster above clearly demonstrates.
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  #235  
Old 29.06.2015, 13:40
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

On one level I think it makes sense for both Germany and Greece to leave the Euro at this point. Two diametrical opposites pulling apart a flakey fantasy concept of an international politically controlled pseudo currency. It's not just the cultural and work ethic differences, but the physical geographic differences, especially climate, resources, etc. One size of a paper currency just does not fill all. The sovereign state, looses all the advantages of a local currency, and gains only grief, and is powerless to control its own interest rates, borrowing, etc.

The idea of a globally acceptable luncheon voucher type currency for travellers is so 1980s. With interest rate derivatives and swaps, there is not need for a Euro which is just becoming a tax and a burden. Look at poor Ireland. Suffering a modern day version of the potato famine. I think the Euro is becoming a disgrace.

From an economic point of view, it seems to me that this was going to happen at some point, the day the currency was introduced and continually expanded, with no planned means of exit available from day 1.
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Old 29.06.2015, 13:41
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

It is quite clear that Tsipras does not want an agreement. If he wanted an agreement, he'd have called the referendum 2 weeks ago.

I'd have understood his move then. A bit chickensh*t, but fair enough, the EU is not budging and the agreement would've been a stark contrast to his election promises. He could've washed his hands of the responsibility and have the people decide on whatever they want. They could've even spun it into a good PR move, look at us, we listen to what the people want.

Now, announcing a referendum before the default, but putting it 5 days too late and then announcing that they'll campaign against a positive outcome is just taking the piss.

It is unfair to all the people in Europe who will foot most of the bill, it is also unfair to the rest of the world who will foot some of the bill (whether through IMF or by holding Greek debt).

However, it is most unfair to the Greeks. Regardless whether they deserve it or not, Tsipras betrayed Greece in an especially underhanded manner and he is a class A douchecanoe. By pulling this stunt, he condemns the Greeks to a default, no matter what their decision. He makes it look like the people have a choice, but they are getting backstabbed either way. There will be consequences, even if they agree to the terms now. Let's ignore the 6 months of dithering that caused serious damage already, what is happening now will grind the entire system to a halt.
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  #237  
Old 29.06.2015, 14:28
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

What will the referendum deliver now that the bail out deal has been taken off the table?
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Old 29.06.2015, 14:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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My feeling is that if the Greeks can demonstrate the testicular fortitude needed to show the EU elites the stink finger, default on its debts (immorally acquired) and create a new Drachma currency, then...
- within about one year or so the Greek economy will turn up and the beginning of a boom will be seen.
- the power of Washington (and NATO) over its European vassal states will be significantly decreased.
If this happens Europe will be the greater for it.

I still can't believe independent European thinkers have come so far towards diminishing the power of this EU monstrosity.
Will it happen? Unfortunately, I still have my doubts!
Maybe it will come to an assana.... sorry, an accident where key members of the Greek government unfortunately die.

One way or another we can only sit and watch, and hope!

About "- within about one year or so the Greek economy will turn up and the beginning of a boom will be seen.
- the power of Washington (and NATO) over its European vassal states will be significantly decreased."

And how exactly will this mouse decrease the power of those elephants?
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Old 29.06.2015, 15:02
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Thanks for propagating last year´s myth of the "lazy , irresponsible Greeks" as opposed to the "model students": Portoguese, Irish etc. who overcame austerity by emmigrating abroad en masse to survive.
Don't suppose you've got any statistics to back up this mass emigration hypothesis of yours do you ???

Also as to lazy and irresponsible well you've got several Greek posters here who corroborate that view - Dan Molina for example " The problem is that people want to stay, want Greece to change, but there is a critical mass of people, that due to f-ed up election laws elected a majority of 160/300 with just 35% of the votes, and that cannot give up the free meals they were taking for the last 30 years of hardcore socialism.

1/3 of Greeks wants to be supported by the rest, and the rest are going down in flames for that."

Then you've got the Wall Street journal's excellent article on Greek tax evasion - which is now legendary.

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You are correct in mentioning the fraud that took place upon Greece´s entry into the Monetary Union. Only that the fraud did not take place without "Europe´s" consent.
Not only is that untrue but it is a really malicious lie if you bother to investigate the level of machinations the Greek state and it's employees have gone to hide that lie :
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/20...rat-in-trouble

Had Europe told Greece that they could not enter the Euro there would have been howls of protest as to their sovereignty and who were say the Germans to question the Greeks' numbers...
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  #240  
Old 29.06.2015, 16:29
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

some people seem to be making the faulty assumption that Greece can simply default, wipe 323B of debt from its balance sheet, go back to the Drachma and then move on. this is incredibly naive, and borderline stupid.

when Greece defaults - and it's very definitely when as opposed to if - the people who are going to get it the hardest are the Greeks. the market (including with respect to the Euro) has already priced in 98% of the default risk, and lenders in insolvency cases never write down 100% of any debt - especially when it is sovereign debt that is intertwined with treaty, trade and other relationships. the only creditors that will truly get screwed will be those creditors who have claims for Greek pensions or other benefits, because there will be no money left to pay those obligations and because those creditors lack the power to hedge or otherwise syndicate their credit exposure.

fair or not, a default is going to be absolutely disastrous for Greece and effectively a non-event to a net-positive for the EU. all the bluster and nonsense about "the Germans / EU / IMF took advantage of the Greeks" and similar arguments is going to help the Greeks about as much as it helped the Brazilians and others in the 80's, i.e. it is going to set Greece back by at least 20 years.
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