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  #261  
Old 30.06.2015, 00:18
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I don't think selling off their country is worth it. It would only buy a little more time. I think Greece should just bite the bullet. An economy doesn't just disappear into thin air. In the case of Argentina, they bartered with each other. i suspect Greece will be doing something similar. They'll have to make their own things instead of importing from China, so I suspect Greece will experience a jolt of creativity. which isn't a bad thing for Greece. They should just go through the painful shock as soon as possible, instead of the slow lingering death of relying on the EU. Greece might still turn out to be a pretty cool place in a couple of years.
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  #262  
Old 30.06.2015, 00:29
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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interest rate in euro will go down which will cause the euro to lose value which is not at all bad for the EU. QE is still going strong so ECB will smoothen things out a bit.

The big picture in my view is that if Greece would leave the euro (but we are not at all there yet) the contamination risk would be much smaller than during the last bailout in 2012. Worst is that a Greece leaving the euro would mean leaving the EU and that may become a safety issue as Obama is trying to tell us.
About "interest rate in euro will go down which will cause the euro to lose value " Problem is we do not know how much risk is already built into today's price so it is hard for us to forecast...
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  #263  
Old 30.06.2015, 02:03
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I don't think selling off their country is worth it. It would only buy a little more time. I think Greece should just bite the bullet. An economy doesn't just disappear into thin air. In the case of Argentina, they bartered with each other. i suspect Greece will be doing something similar. They'll have to make their own things instead of importing from China, so I suspect Greece will experience a jolt of creativity. which isn't a bad thing for Greece. They should just go through the painful shock as soon as possible, instead of the slow lingering death of relying on the EU. Greece might still turn out to be a pretty cool place in a couple of years.
Cosco (essentially china) leased Piraeus Pier2 for 30 years (starting 2009 I think), people then said they overpaid big time. Well, freight volume grew sevenfold since, these days nobody says the overpaid. Quite the contrary. Pier3 got leased not that long ago, too, with the intent for Piraeus to reach Rotterdam, Antwerpen and Hamburg volumes by 2016/17.

Meanwhile, Pier1, which is still owned and operated by Greece, is supposedly creating little more than rust. Nonetheless, the unionized workers there, before the crisis, were earning three times what Piraeus2 workers earn today (€1200), which even today is above GR-average.

How can Cosco possibly prosper in a (supposedly) utterly corrupt country? Assuming they give Piraeus no particular advantage, I see mainly two possibilites:
- they're used to corruption, and take better advantage of it than the greeks
- they're better managers
both bullet points can each be summarized as "they're better business people/managers".

So perhaps Greece would indeed be better off if they had outsiders run economy and country, at least for an extended while
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  #264  
Old 30.06.2015, 02:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

You can all do your bit. Out of €1.6 billion they now only need about €1.6 billion.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund
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  #265  
Old 30.06.2015, 02:15
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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It's a mess
Perhaps the Greece should have somebody else run the country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milita...g_World_War_II
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  #266  
Old 30.06.2015, 02:18
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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So perhaps Greece would indeed be better off if they had outsiders run economy and country, at least for an extended while
Yes, of course. In theory.
In practice, they resent even their own state authority - the very reason they're in the gutter.
They certainly wouldn't welcome the German tax-inspectors with flowers, ouzo and a souvlaki buffet...
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  #267  
Old 30.06.2015, 06:41
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Has anyone considered the option of selling territory? It's like an enforced repo. And the Germans always did have a thing about Crete.
Yes, it may well come to some form of looting or other. That may well have been the original idea of the big boyz behind this game.
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  #268  
Old 30.06.2015, 07:52
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I see David Stockman has weighed in with his views on the Greece issue.

Good On You, Alexis Tsipras (Part 1)

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So let the price discovery begin. In the days ahead, we will catalogue the desperate efforts of the regime to reassert its authority and control and to stabilize the suddenly turbulent casino.
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  #269  
Old 30.06.2015, 10:30
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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How does a country with such apparent lack of pride and initiative rebuild?
The decay of infrastructure might have to do more with the massive budget cuts that Greece has faced since 2008 than with a lack of pride!

Maybe you need to look at the figures, before you make statements like that!

In 2012 (!), Roger Bootle, a prominent British economist, said the following:

'Since the beginning of 2008, Greek real GDP has fallen by more than 17pc. On my forecasts, by the end of next year, the total fall will be more like 25pc. Unsurprisingly, employment has also fallen sharply, by about 500,000, in a total workforce of about 5 million. The unemployment rate is now more than 20pc. . . . A 25pc drop is roughly what was experienced in the US in the Great Depression of the 1930s. The scale of the austerity measures already enacted makes you wince. . . . Attempts to cut back on the debt by austerity alone will deliver misery alone'
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  #270  
Old 30.06.2015, 10:42
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Anyone else think the Greek PM is somewhat cocky by stating they 'won't kick us out'?
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  #271  
Old 30.06.2015, 10:57
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Yes, of course. In theory.
In practice, they resent even their own state authority - the very reason they're in the gutter.
They certainly wouldn't welcome the German tax-inspectors with flowers, ouzo and a souvlaki buffet...
I'm aware of the historic issues, thank you. Apparently they prefer to risk the collapse of their economy.

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Anyone else think the Greek PM is somewhat cocky by stating they 'won't kick us out'?
While the EU treaties describe the procedure of a member country declaring exit, they don't mention exclusion.
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  #272  
Old 30.06.2015, 11:03
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Cosco (essentially china) leased Piraeus Pier2 for 30 years (starting 2009 I think), people then said they overpaid big time. Well, freight volume grew sevenfold since, these days nobody says the overpaid. Quite the contrary. Pier3 got leased not that long ago, too, with the intent for Piraeus to reach Rotterdam, Antwerpen and Hamburg volumes by 2016/17.

Meanwhile, Pier1, which is still owned and operated by Greece, is supposedly creating little more than rust. Nonetheless, the unionized workers there, before the crisis, were earning three times what Piraeus2 workers earn today (€1200), which even today is above GR-average.

How can Cosco possibly prosper in a (supposedly) utterly corrupt country? Assuming they give Piraeus no particular advantage, I see mainly two possibilites:
- they're used to corruption, and take better advantage of it than the greeks
- they're better managers
both bullet points can each be summarized as "they're better business people/managers".

So perhaps Greece would indeed be better off if they had outsiders run economy and country, at least for an extended while
Only that Piraeus will never create enough jobs to fix the unemployment of all of Greece, and meanwhile those piers are being used to import stuff from China that could theoretically also be manufactured in Greece. So the net effect is job prevention rather than creation.

If Greece took control of its own currency and devalued it sufficiently that imports become uncompetitive, domestic manufacturing would pick up and exports would flourish. That's precisely what the Eurozone has prevented them from doing.
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  #273  
Old 30.06.2015, 11:10
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Translation of the ballot paper, according to Bloomberg:

Should the draft agreement submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on 25.06.2015 that consists of two parts be accepted?
The first document is titled "Reforms for the completion of the current program and beyond'' and the second "Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis''
Answer boxes: Not approved/NO - Approved/YES


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  #274  
Old 30.06.2015, 11:20
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Only that Piraeus will never create enough jobs to fix the unemployment of all of Greece
Of course not. So?
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, and meanwhile those piers are being used to import stuff from China that could theoretically also be manufactured in Greece. So the net effect is job prevention rather than creation.

If Greece took control of its own currency and devalued it sufficiently that imports become uncompetitive, domestic manufacturing would pick up and exports would flourish. That's precisely what the Eurozone has prevented them from doing.
A lot of things could happen, theoretically. But why don't they? Why didn't they produce that stuff even when they still had the Drachme?
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  #275  
Old 30.06.2015, 11:21
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I'm aware of the historic issues, thank you. Apparently they prefer to risk the collapse of their economy.
For an addict to accept help, (s)he must reach rock-bottom.

Otherwise, there will always be people who will claim "The traitors! We could have made it, if we had persisted".

Germany had a lot of those after 1918, claiming that the democratic revolution "stabbed the army in the back".
(Different background, I know - but the sentiment is quite common IMO).

As such, in the 1940s a lot of people who were against the Nazi-regime realized that unless the defeat was total this time, these same claims would be re-surface again.
My history teacher quoted a saying along the lines of "to drink the poisoned chalice to the end".

I think Greece, too, will need to empty this chalice it has prepared for itself.

So far, though, it doesn't look like anybody is going to prison for this mess.
In any classic Greek tragedy, there needs to be a catharsis, to clear the skies. So to speak.
All those middle-class people who lost their jobs, their savings, their houses - they'll need a group of people to point at and say "At least, they went to jail for it". And not the least because it would cover the fact that they themselves elected these same people into office (often again and again).
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  #276  
Old 30.06.2015, 11:25
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Of course not. So?
Because you are cviting the one example as an employment success that is actually the nail in the coffin of internal recovery.

It's like saying, OK, our factory closed down and 100 people are out of a job, but there is hope. The demolition guys have a job. If only we could follow in their footsteps we'd all soon be back to work.

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A lot of things could happen, theoretically. But why don't they? Why didn't they produce that stuff even when they still had the Drachme?
They produced a lot more than they do now. Why else do you think the economy has shrunk so much?
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  #277  
Old 30.06.2015, 12:46
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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They produced a lot more than they do now. Why else do you think the economy has shrunk so much?

GDP measures account for economy running on borrowed money as well. You can't tell from it pensions were paid with a deficit.
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  #278  
Old 30.06.2015, 13:01
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I think the problem is the vast majority of Greeks don't relate well to the global financial system. For them, its a game tilted towards pockets not their own. I think they would rather have a more rudimentary economics of something they make to trade for something they want. I don't think I would invest in Greece staying in the global finance system, when they themselves don't really want to. But I would invest in Greek people who want to produce something. I think there is potential there for cottage industries to boom. I would incubate micro-economics projects that allowed everyday people to produce something. I'm thinking something like 3D printers. I would sell complicated derived paper values short.
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  #279  
Old 30.06.2015, 13:26
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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If Greece took control of its own currency and devalued it sufficiently that imports become uncompetitive, domestic manufacturing would pick up and exports would flourish. That's precisely what the Eurozone has prevented them from doing.
Sorry, you are just repeating a nonsense rhetoric that has been propagated by Marxist orphans. Tell me a single country in the past century in which cutting imports would result in a better off economy? None.
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  #280  
Old 30.06.2015, 13:42
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Sorry, you are just repeating a nonsense rhetoric that has been propagated by Marxist orphans. Tell me a single country in the past century in which cutting imports would result in a better off economy? None.
For certain special values of none, maybe.

Concerning controlling and restricting imports. Post-war Japan did this pretty succesfully. In fact it is difficult to find very many countries that do not have some level of restriction or disincentive to protect some aspect of their domestic industry.

Concerning devaluation of currency, Argentina did this quite succesfully, but later managed to sabotage the fledgling growth of its economy with other mistakes.

But between that and none there is a rhetorical difference.
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