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  #281  
Old 30.06.2015, 14:14
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

You forgot the part where Japan and Argentina are powerhouses of production, whilst Greece is a powerhouse of NOT.

So yeah, there's that minor detail...
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  #282  
Old 30.06.2015, 15:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I know it isn't anything unexpected but Greece have officially confirmed that they will not be able to make the payment today
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gre...ays-2015-06-30
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  #283  
Old 30.06.2015, 15:58
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Because you are cviting the one example as an employment success that is actually the nail in the coffin of internal recovery.

It's like saying, OK, our factory closed down and 100 people are out of a job, but there is hope. The demolition guys have a job. If only we could follow in their footsteps we'd all soon be back to work.

They produced a lot more than they do now. Why else do you think the economy has shrunk so much?
If that was true, the overproportinately increasing imports would push the already negative trade balance even deeper into the red. The reality however is the exact opposite.

Notice the 5-year jumps until 1990. Underlying numbers from worldbank.
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  #284  
Old 30.06.2015, 16:21
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

In the left media, there are quite many comments about the debt reduction in the private sector some times ago. The issue being that the Greek government doesn't get why the public debt can't follow the same procedure. The government puts the rules the debt collector made up themselves on the grill. Refusing to make it a mechanical number issue and getting it out into the political arena is a way of forcing the EU to be political for the first time in a looooong time.
I don't have any opinion, but there is something interesting about testing the existing rules set by the EU to the extreme. I just hope nobody forgets the real people in Greece who have to suffer through it.
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  #285  
Old 30.06.2015, 16:53
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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For certain special values of none, maybe.

Concerning controlling and restricting imports. Post-war Japan did this pretty succesfully. In fact it is difficult to find very many countries that do not have some level of restriction or disincentive to protect some aspect of their domestic industry.

Concerning devaluation of currency, Argentina did this quite succesfully, but later managed to sabotage the fledgling growth of its economy with other mistakes.

But between that and none there is a rhetorical difference.
Sorry but you have chosen a very bad example to try to corroborate your theory that Greece would be better off if it restricts imports.

Japan was the biggest non-European IMPORTER of capital right after the WWII. It allowed then to IMPORT raw material, machines, and invest in production assets that were crucial to reconstruct its economy. And all of this was only possible because of an extremely disciplined and efficient way to allocate resources.

I am not an economist nor a historian so sorry for my ignorance, but I am trying hard to pick a country in which restricting imports or "protecting" domestic industry developed into a better place after an economic crisis.
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  #286  
Old 30.06.2015, 17:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Sorry but you have chosen a very bad example to try to corroborate your theory that Greece would be better off if it restricts imports.

Japan was the biggest non-European IMPORTER of capital right after the WWII. It allowed then to IMPORT raw material, machines, and invest in production assets that were crucial to reconstruct its economy. And all of this was only possible because of an extremely disciplined and efficient way to allocate resources.

I am not an economist nor a historian so sorry for my ignorance, but I am trying hard to pick a country in which restricting imports or "protecting" domestic industry developed into a better place after an economic crisis.
Japan did not just invest heavily in its domestic industrial capability, but the government basically went into individual companies and set up growth plans and objectives jointly with them while massively restricting imports that would have hurt those companies. Once these companies strarted performing and could stand on their own feet, these restrictions were lessened. But neverthless, at a crucila point in their development there was a program of targeted restrictions.

If Greece on the other hand does what the rest of the world wants, it must leave its markets open to imports while having little ability to further develop or create new exports or even goods for the domestic market.

I doubt that the government of Greece is as smart as Japan's government of the post war period, and I doubt they could pull something like that off. But that's not the same as saying restrictions and protection have never built a strong economy.

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Tell me a single country in the past century in which cutting imports would result in a better off economy? None.
Hence me questioning what special value "none" may hold in this context.
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  #287  
Old 30.06.2015, 18:48
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Japan did not just invest heavily in its domestic industrial capability, but the government basically went into individual companies and set up growth plans and objectives jointly with them while massively restricting imports that would have hurt those companies. Once these companies strarted performing and could stand on their own feet, these restrictions were lessened. But neverthless, at a crucila point in their development there was a program of targeted restrictions.

If Greece on the other hand does what the rest of the world wants, it must leave its markets open to imports while having little ability to further develop or create new exports or even goods for the domestic market.

I doubt that the government of Greece is as smart as Japan's government of the post war period, and I doubt they could pull something like that off. But that's not the same as saying restrictions and protection have never built a strong economy.



Hence me questioning what special value "none" may hold in this context.
I was going to groan on your post but that is sometimes seen as a sign of discordance. But the case is that I am not disagreeing or agreeing with your reasoning, it's just that it's technically wrong and out of context.

The current situation of Greece and it's ability to recover in the future has nothing to do with "protecting" the domestic industry and/or excessive imports. It's all about financing the state excessive spending with borrowed money.

You are right in saying that the Japanese government intervened in the economy at that time, but that was to allocate the IMPORTED capital on INVESTMENTS in production. What's the parallel with Greece current situation or future conditions for recovery? Nothing, niente, nada, rien, nichts.

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1 - But that's not the same as saying restrictions and protection have never built a strong economy.

2 - If Greece on the other hand does what the rest of the world wants, it must leave its markets open to imports while having little ability to further develop or create new exports or even goods for the domestic market.


I'm sorry if I'm being harsh on you but these theories of protectionism have never worked well in the long term. Do you really believe that Greece can recover out of nowhere by avoiding trade? Again, I am still waiting your answer about which countries became successful by adopting such policies.

PS: don't take it personally.

Last edited by Capo; 30.06.2015 at 19:07.
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  #288  
Old 30.06.2015, 18:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I'm sorry if I'm being harsh on you but these theories of protectionism have never worked well in the long term. Do you really believe that Greece can recover out of nowhere by avoiding trade? Again, I am still waiting your answer about which countries became successful by adopting such policies.

PS: don't take it personally.
Well, now you are moving the goal posts. You previously didn't mention "such policies" but said no country has ever in the last 100 years acheived succes through protectionism.

You are now changing that challenge by saying the example has to be "long term" and has to be comparable to Greece.

It's too easy to win an argument if you change the challenge at the end and then claim the other person didn't actually respond to the challenge.

Think about it.
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  #289  
Old 30.06.2015, 22:28
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I'm sorry if I'm being harsh on you but these theories of protectionism have never worked well in the long term. Do you really believe that Greece can recover out of nowhere by avoiding trade? Again, I am still waiting your answer about which countries became successful by adopting such policies.

PS: don't take it personally.

Tell me how the free trade agreements (and especially free capital flow) benefited the lower 90 percent.
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  #290  
Old 30.06.2015, 22:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Sorry, you are just repeating a nonsense rhetoric that has been propagated by Marxist orphans. Tell me a single country in the past century in which cutting imports would result in a better off economy? None.
I can see how that principle applies for countries steadily growing in a relatively stabile economy. But in the case of Greece, it isn't a healthy patient. It suffers from anemia, and has been in the hospital for a number of years, and is now in ICU. I'm not sure the typical prescription of rigorous cardio exercises is applicable to Greece. All countries protect its industries and markets. Can you name one that doesn't? None?
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  #291  
Old 30.06.2015, 22:45
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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In the left media, there are quite many comments about the debt reduction in the private sector some times ago. The issue being that the Greek government doesn't get why the public debt can't follow the same procedure. The government puts the rules the debt collector made up themselves on the grill. Refusing to make it a mechanical number issue and getting it out into the political arena is a way of forcing the EU to be political for the first time in a looooong time.
I don't have any opinion, but there is something interesting about testing the existing rules set by the EU to the extreme. I just hope nobody forgets the real people in Greece who have to suffer through it.
Probably because the private sector creates value and pays back. It has to for its survival. While the public sector is not as compelled to create any value. All they have to do is scare people, or rob Peter to pay Paul.
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  #292  
Old 01.07.2015, 00:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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If Greece on the other hand does what the rest of the world wants, it must leave its markets open to imports while having little ability to further develop or create new exports or even goods for the domestic market.
It is not imports that stops Geek business from developing. It is the lack of a favourable business climate! If you are a Greek with a smart business idea the last place you want to develop it is Greece - Employers social insurance 36%, Corporate tax 28%, new special corporate tax 12%! Then there is all the red tape, the collective bargaining etc...

A few of my former colleagues in Ireland, who specialise in startups have commented about the number of enquiries they have from Greeks who wish to establish there. And it is hard to blame them, who would want to set up in such an anti-business environment when there are so many other places they could be....
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  #293  
Old 01.07.2015, 08:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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You can all do your bit. Out of €1.6 billion they now only need about €1.6 billion.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund
I can't believe 34 thousand people are that thick that they think their contributions will make any difference. And why the hell would anyone want to fund banks and Greek politicians?!
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  #294  
Old 01.07.2015, 11:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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All countries protect its industries and markets. Can you name one that doesn't? None?
I'd say every EU member qualifies.

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In the left media, there are quite many comments about the debt reduction in the private sector some times ago. The issue being that the Greek government doesn't get why the public debt can't follow the same procedure. The government puts the rules the debt collector made up themselves on the grill. Refusing to make it a mechanical number issue and getting it out into the political arena is a way of forcing the EU to be political for the first time in a looooong time.
I don't have any opinion, but there is something interesting about testing the existing rules set by the EU to the extreme. I just hope nobody forgets the real people in Greece who have to suffer through it.
Why do you say this hasn't been a political matter? Both EU and Eurozone treaties have benn amended and broadened as a reaction to the crises, where Greece is, though not alone, at the core. And of course EU has been helping all along, to boot.

The guiding "rule" (law, as you call it) is the agreement reached in 2012/13 by the Eurogroup and greek government, probably including IWF and ECB. One core point mentioned openly at that time forecast 175% indebtedness by 2016, which is close enough to where Greece stands today. This agreement had to be ratified by all national parliaments involved, including greek parliament, IIRC each nation had veto power. So, it's not as if the "debt collectors", as you call them, made their own rules, quite the contrary - the one party demanding new rules in the middle of the "game" is Greece.

What seems to go forgotten is that, in effect, Greec got two haircuts already. One is the "bailout" of private banks that cost them 53.5% of the face value, plus the opportunity cost created by extending the duration and lowering interest rates on the new bonds. All in all that amounted to about 70% haircut.

The second (indirect, silent) cut lies in the fact that the Troika demands much lower interest than would be justified. A few weeks ago, total return on long-term greek bonds was 8-8.5%. EU, ECB, IWF money carries about 1% actual interest on average. Effectively, EU/ECB/IWF subsidize Greece for about 10% greek GDP, each and every year.

If they got a third one, there's a high likelihood that Italy, Spain and Ireland would demand similar procedure for themselves, which would involve much higher debt amounts. Eastern European EU members might follow suite on the grounds that they also had to take draconic steps, and even today have lower living standards than Greece. All in all, it might even destroy the Euro, perhaps EU itself.
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  #295  
Old 01.07.2015, 15:28
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Poor analysis from the Independent just quoting a campaign:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-10355847.html

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Almost all the money owed by Greece has been used to pay off its lenders, with only 10 per cent of it going to the Greek people, according to the Jubilee Debt Campaign.
Clearly rubbish - the money originally went to the Greek people and was owed to the banks. The fact they now owe it to ECB/ESM/IMF doesn't change the fact they spent it, any more than me moving my mortgage makes me free to ignore the debt or claim a 90% rebate.
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  #296  
Old 01.07.2015, 20:03
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Clearly rubbish - the money originally went to the Greek people and was owed to the banks. The fact they now owe it to ECB/ESM/IMF doesn't change the fact they spent it, any more than me moving my mortgage makes me free to ignore the debt or claim a 90% rebate.
Correct, but incomplete and misleading. The (private) lenders earned money while it lasted, instead of parking them at ECB, assuming they have enough clout to get bailed out, and then they got bailed out by Troika, who knew that this money is unrecoverable.
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Old 01.07.2015, 20:43
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Clearly rubbish - the money originally went to the Greek people
But did it?

There's not much in Greece in he way of infrastructure or other investment to show for that money. I expect most of that money never filtered through to the people it was intended for. So basically the greedy politicians stole the money while pretending to be doing things for the people, and now the people are expected to pay it back.

If Greece were a plc, the shareholders would now refuse to give their CEO a dechargé, and he would be personally liable for he losses. A state being a less accountable form of a company, politicians can print their own get out of jail free cards.
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  #298  
Old 03.07.2015, 01:14
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Article here about the issues businesses are facing today in Greece.

Horror story
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  #299  
Old 03.07.2015, 09:05
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Article here about the issues businesses are facing today in Greece.

Horror story
I don't think Greeks & businesses will see any relief before the referendum; creditors & Greeks will play all their cards.

On the other hand, I do not see how anyone can trade with Greek businesses in this conjuncture knowing payment is not a possibility
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Old 03.07.2015, 10:25
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Even those of us with booked tickets for Greece this summer are having second thoughts (and we ARE Greeks too). Nobody wants to get stranded somewhere with no flights/strikes and closed banks and ATMs.

A whole nation under dillusion...hope they will choose the hard way through a YES. Once again, Greeks abroad cannot vote as if they don't matter. Soon half the country will be abroad anyway as there are no jobs and their dream to turn it into a communist utopia might come true.
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