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  #341  
Old 06.07.2015, 14:37
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

"OXI" 61%
Even in my wildest dreams I didn't hope for such a good result.

Well done the people of Greece!!
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  #342  
Old 06.07.2015, 14:52
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

"Well done people of Greece"...? They have screwed their economy into the ground. If they stay in the EUR or not they still will be borrowing money to survive, creditors telling them what to do, and a corrupt and disastrous financial system. I agree, it's best if they leave the EUR, but I don't see it as an occasion to pop some champagne and pat each other on the back
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  #343  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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So you'd let them starve then ?
oh, the bankers wouldn't starve. worse case is that they don't buy that third private jet. nothing to cry over...
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  #344  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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But he's both a coward and a deluded person, crazy if you will. It's his fricking JOB to decide, that's what he got elected for. He appears to think pushing his countr down bankruptcy lane to be the best course - I can almost hear the demands for humanitary help. In his mind it's always somebody elses fault, never the greeks'.

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sure, but he has his own interests to look out for. the EU made no secret of wanting the current (and in the EU, only) radical left government out. so they appear to have put him in a no-win situation of either ending his own political career, or going against the raison d'etre of Syriza and therefore likely ending the party.

the referendum is an attempt to side-step the trap that has been laid for him by the troika.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe...europe-no-what

So. Turns out a great decision. He wanted to give a 'no' answer and now has huge political backing for it. On top of that one of the 'yes' leaders has had to resign.

A huge political win for Tsipras and bad news for the Troika who have miscalculated.

Now they face negotiating under weakened positions. I wonder if they now wish that they had given more earlier on?
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  #345  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

"Greece's Economy Minister, Georgios Stathakis, told the BBC the ECB had to keep Greek banks alive for seven to 10 days so that negotiations could take place."

Really? Why? You've had months to come up with a viable plan and have basically done nothing. A few more days isn't going to make any difference. Greece has been screwing itself for decades on the financial side of things and now you're paying the price. Euro or Drachma you're still going to be deep in debt and on the verge of collapse.

Yeah, well done Greece.
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  #346  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:28
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

The truth is Greece has all the aces now and it's time for the EU, the ECB and the IMF to come to terms with the fact that it is them and their big banks that are facing financial bankruptcy. It wouldn't surprise me if Germany or the ECB secretly handed Greece a few billions under the table (small change for them) so that the reality of the situation can be put off for a couple more can kicks.
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  #347  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:44
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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The truth is Greece has all the aces now and it's time for the EU, the ECB and the IMF to come to terms with the fact that it is them and their big banks that are facing financial bankruptcy.
If that's what you call "all the aces" then clearly I know nothing about cards....
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  #348  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:50
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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If that's what you call "all the aces" then clearly I know nothing about cards....


It may just be that each side is playing a different game. Certainly seems consistent with what has been seen so far. Aces are not always a high card...

So far we have see that each side's "compelling arguments" have little credence with the other.
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  #349  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:51
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

"Greece has all the Aces now", LOL

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  #350  
Old 06.07.2015, 15:56
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

The only thing Greece holds is a bunch of IOUs - which are worthless. Either way Europe/ECB lose. It's just a question of a one off pain when they cut the cords completely or whether they continue to try and prop up a dead economy for a while longer.

The whole situation is ludicrous though. Borrow money to pay off debts owed which were created by borrowing money in the first place. Whatever the ECB or anyone else may hand over to Greece will only go right back to pay the debts off and won't do anything to get the country's economy moving again. Spend, spend, spend won't work either as there's no money to spend with.
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  #351  
Old 06.07.2015, 16:11
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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The truth is Greece has all the aces now and it's time for the EU, the ECB and the IMF to come to terms with the fact that it is them and their big banks that are facing financial bankruptcy.
Don't see how you come to that conclusion. The private banks were sorted out in 2012, when Greece was given a w/o of approx. 100b. As for the rest, it is a foregone conclusion that the rest will not be paid back.

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It wouldn't surprise me if Germany or the ECB secretly handed Greece a few billions under the table (small change for them) so that the reality of the situation can be put off for a couple more can kicks.
Well first of all there are 18 states involved and Germany is not the only one saying no! Furthermore by voting no the Greeks have given the EuroGroup the justification they needed to pull the plug and send them on their way with a bit of humanitarian aid!

No matter how you look at it the Greek people have some very hard times ahead.
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  #352  
Old 06.07.2015, 16:18
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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The whole situation is ludicrous though. Borrow money to pay off debts owed which were created by borrowing money in the first place. Whatever the ECB or anyone else may hand over to Greece will only go right back to pay the debts off and won't do anything to get the country's economy moving again. Spend, spend, spend won't work either as there's no money to spend with.
Yes but remember the criteria being used to measure improvement was the budget deficit before interests payments and the Greeks were on the way to achieving that at the end of last year.

Getting agreement to w/o the debt after structural changes could be sold back home by the 18 EuroGroup member, but before that is a very hard sell!
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  #353  
Old 06.07.2015, 18:51
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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http://www.economist.com/news/europe...europe-no-what

So. Turns out a great decision. He wanted to give a 'no' answer and now has huge political backing for it. On top of that one of the 'yes' leaders has had to resign.

A huge political win for Tsipras and bad news for the Troika who have miscalculated.

Now they face negotiating under weakened positions. I wonder if they now wish that they had given more earlier on?
Not sure I understand that, how are the Troika weakened?
If they offer Greece better terms then the other Piigs will be knocking on the door! Public opinion across the EU will be against any more giveaways; at least in the richer countries?
Plus it is not clear how much flexibility the EU has to ignore their own lending rules anyway? Presumably will require an 18 state vote which probably cannot be organised overnight?

Anyway Greece is not much bigger than Switzerland in population terms so it is hard to believe Grexit would have much impact on the EU, the markets seem to be quite relaxed about this possibility?
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  #354  
Old 07.07.2015, 15:15
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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A huge political win for Tsipras and bad news for the Troika who have miscalculated.
I'm not so sure about that.

I've been feeling for some time now that there has been an unresolvable stalemate, but the Troika have felt they need to make it absolutely clear that it's 100% Greece's fault and 0% their own and so they are allowing Tsipras to have enough rope to hang himself. Tsipras has walked straight into the trap and taken the rope.
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  #355  
Old 07.07.2015, 17:45
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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"OXI" 61%
Even in my wildest dreams I didn't hope for such a good result.

Well done the people of Greece!!
I don't get this enthusiasm. It's not good for Greece, nor for the rest of E.U. countries....I'm sure they'll find a solution in the end but applauding a politician like Tsipras (or probably any other recent politician as a matter of fact) is beyond me. But well.

I hope you don't forget to buy Greek products as often as you can, and spend your holiday in Greece because they rather need this kind of support and not blank, pseudo-enthusiastic words to "support" Greece.

Last edited by greenmount; 07.07.2015 at 17:56.
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  #356  
Old 07.07.2015, 17:53
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Can anyone explain clearly what difference the referendum made?

Basically the Greek people voted to let their government negotiate under a set of conditions slightly weaker than those already promised in their manifesto.

I can't see that being a particularly strong statement when trying to negotiate a 320 billion Euro debt, and when from what I can see the governments across the rest of the Euro zone have massive support from their voters for not backing down.
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  #357  
Old 07.07.2015, 18:09
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Can anyone explain clearly what difference the referendum made?

Basically the Greek people voted to let their government negotiate under a set of conditions slightly weaker than those already promised in their manifesto.

I can't see that being a particularly strong statement when trying to negotiate a 320 billion Euro debt, and when from what I can see the governments across the rest of the Euro zone have massive support from their voters for not backing down.
It's all Greek to me!!
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  #358  
Old 07.07.2015, 18:49
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Can anyone explain clearly what difference the referendum made?

Basically the Greek people voted to let their government negotiate under a set of conditions slightly weaker than those already promised in their manifesto.

I can't see that being a particularly strong statement when trying to negotiate a 320 billion Euro debt, and when from what I can see the governments across the rest of the Euro zone have massive support from their voters for not backing down.
It's a bit like the financial crisis 2008: if you owe five million but can't pay, you're in trouble.
If you owe five billion, suddenly your bank is in trouble and the state has to bail you (and your bank) out.

Following this principle, the Greek government tried to do exactly that in the last months and weeks.
It will be interesting to see how it goes from here.
Smaller EU states are openly refusing to give any more money without significant concessions from the Greek government.
But basically they're really at the "just f'ck off" stage.
Maybe the Greek government has overplayed their hand a bit.
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  #359  
Old 08.07.2015, 00:09
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Tonight's press conference after the euro group meeting does not sound positive for Greece, example from Merkel " Greece has not yet done enough to start negotiations about a new bailout programme:"
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  #360  
Old 08.07.2015, 00:11
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

So on one hand we have a drip feed of bailout help and maintaining a downward spiral of regaining competitiveness by slashing pensions, salaries and public sector employment, with a de-facto deflation while the companies and private debt in Euro stays the same. Hard and crippling the economy. On the other hand there might be a shock adjustment of cost of labour when Euro is renounced, with debts readjusted to the new realities. With a big issue of external private and public debt in Euro. But this is anyway the same issue this way or the other.
The banks are doomed as they lent in times of prosperity, of a kind of a bubble, and no one can pay these money back. So they'll not be able to provide credit to the economy which will further cripple it (as is happening in Italy where lending to business became gradually more and more restricted since Euro has been adopted).
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