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Old 12.07.2015, 14:29
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

The faffing and bluffing goes on. According to the BBC's Robert Peston:

"So the first rather chilling thing I've learned, from well-placed bankers, is there have been no conversations between the Bank of Greece, the government or regulators and Greece's commercial banks about the technicalities of leaving the euro and adopting a new currency.

This is astonishing - and some would say pretty close to criminal - given that on Wednesday night the president of the European Union, former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, was explicit that this weekend's negotiations were all about whether Greece would stay in the eurozone.

"There have been absolutely no talks with the authorities on what we would do if we leave the euro - no technical preparations, nothing that we are aware of," said one senior banker.


Full story here:

Could euro survive temporary exit of Greece?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33497877
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  #402  
Old 12.07.2015, 15:25
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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From reading today's news, it sounds like Greece and EU are trying to still work out a deal to keep Greece in the EUR currency? Why? Germans are sick and tired of giving them money, and Greece doesn't want to pay it back or live by the austerity rules (that seem to be making things actually worse in Greece). Why is it that everyone seems to agree that the "Grexit" is the best thing for all, but yet they are still fighting to prevent it from happening?
Regardless of the outcome, the Greek people are going to have to go through some very hard times in the years ahead and those fighting to keep Greece within the EuroGroup believe that by doing so, they can make those times just a little bit more bearable. I happen to agree with them.

For the past five years Greece has been claiming that it was implementing austerity, but 3 successive governments have failed to do so. What they have done is cut expenditure on pensions etc, but failed to make the necessary structural changes required to turn things around. Thus the disadvantaged in Greece are facing hard times with no real end in sight. By being in a tightly controlled bail out situation it is hoped (not at all certain) that the Greek government would be forced into making those structural changes.

Once the Greek government start to using any currency other than the Euro, they will be in breach of an EU treaty which ultimately means their membership will be suspended. This means that although their citizens will still enjoy all the privileges of citizenship, their government will no longer have voting rights and more importantly they will be excluded from structural funds. For example, over the coming two years the EU was committed to spending €20b on projects in Greece, these funds go mainly to the poorer parts of the country and Greece can not really afford to pass up free money!

Also by staying within the Union, they stand a much better chance of obtaining humanitarian aid and other forms of support than is the are simply a third country.

But in reality since it's election the current government has behaved more like the winners of student union election than the government of a country and have engaged the Union in an ideology war rather than putting their people and their country before party. Which has got them to the current situation where although the new proposals seem good, there is very serious doubt about their ability to implement it. In my opinion, if yesterday Tsipars had sacked all ministers who voted against the government it would at least have given some indication that he was serious, but he choose not to, so where is the determination?
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  #403  
Old 12.07.2015, 19:35
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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looks like this will run to the last minute.

If you wrote a book with this as the theme nobody would believe it.
So Greece had a referendum that rejected the creditors offer. Now contrary to that it seems the Greek Parliament agreed a proposal that is more austere than the one rejected.

Now it looks possible that the EU will reject the new proposal although it is more austere than they requested!

The EU finance ministers meeting has been extended to today.

EU European leaders meeting has been postponed because the finance ministers do not have an agreement.

However this turns out (bailout or not) there will be many people and countries profoundly dissatisfied with the result.
if there is a deal made to keep Greece in the Eurozone, it will only be because the Greeks agreed to whatever the EU demanded. and the EU can demand anything it wants, frankly.

just last week the Greeks were celebrating the glory of "democracy", this weekend they are learning just how expensive "democracy" can be. and also how illusory it can be, since whatever the Greek people voted on last week has become completely irrelevant and meaningless.
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Old 12.07.2015, 20:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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since whatever the Greek people voted on last week has become completely irrelevant and meaningless.
Do the Greek people know this? Does their media tell them that their own goverment has now proposed those same measures they just refused on referendum? and if yes, arent they furious?

Unfortunately my Greek skills are too rusty to read their local news.
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  #405  
Old 12.07.2015, 22:51
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Do the Greek people know this? Does their media tell them that their own goverment has now proposed those same measures they just refused on referendum? and if yes, arent they furious?

Unfortunately my Greek skills are too rusty to read their local news.
Some greek newspapers have english editons, e.g. http://www.ekathimerini.com/
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  #406  
Old 12.07.2015, 23:05
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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the president of the European Union, former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk

He is a puppet and has no say so you may as well assume he said nothing. Or, that he said what he was told to say.
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  #407  
Old 12.07.2015, 23:21
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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He is a puppet and has no say so you may as well assume he said nothing. Or, that he said what he was told to say.
However, on an unrelated matter every Balkan could only hope to have some of the Poland's politicians.
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  #408  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:24
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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But in reality since it's election the current government has behaved more like the winners of student union election than the government of a country and have engaged the Union in an ideology war rather than putting their people and their country before party. Which has got them to the current situation where although the new proposals seem good, there is very serious doubt about their ability to implement it. In my opinion, if yesterday Tsipars had sacked all ministers who voted against the government it would at least have given some indication that he was serious, but he choose not to, so where is the determination?
I don't know what you've been reading but it's Germany (and its vassal states) that has refused to see reason, putting its (their) ideology first.

Why Greece never got a fair chance
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On pure economics, Syriza got it mostly right both in terms of the diagnoses of the crisis and on what micro and macro level steps were needed to restore the Greek economy. But its big mistake was to assume that economic arguments could prevail over ideology and realpolitik.
Basically a business can go to the bank and ask to negotiate its debt when it realizes that it's not sustainable, but a country can't?
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  #409  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:26
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Basically a business can go to the bank and ask to negotiate its debt when it realizes that it's not sustainable, but a country can't?
If they can be trusted to pay their debts.
Also, Germany is not a bank. It did however agree to provide many billions in good faith, and does not want to commit to more billions if there is a risk of not getting some or all of that money back. Wouldnt you do the same if you were lending a lot of money to a friend who has been reluctant or unable to repay?
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  #410  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:37
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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If they can be trusted to pay their debts.
Also, Germany is not a bank. It did however agree to provide many billions in good faith, and does not want to commit to more billions if there is a risk of not getting some or all of that money back. Wouldnt you do the same if you were lending a lot of money to a friend who has been reluctant or unable to repay?
Germany should not have given any money to Greece.
Greece should not have asked for any money from Germany.
This is back in 2009-2010.

Can we get back to 2015?

Now somebody (the new Greek government) saw reason, told everybody that this thing is getting nowhere, did not ask for money (it only asked to not pay back those stupid loans), and the other side refuses to see reason because of its obsession with its ideology.
And still, it's the first side, the one that saw reason, that gets accused of starting an "ideology war".

My only consolation is that one day German voters will ask their government what happened with their money that it stupidly gave Greece.
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  #411  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Germany should not have given any money to Greece.
Greece should not have asked for any money from Germany.
This is back in 2009-2010.

Can we get back to 2015?

Now somebody (the new Greek government) saw reason, told everybody that this thing is getting nowhere, did not ask for money (it only asked to not pay back those stupid loans), and the other side refuses to see reason because of its obsession with its ideology.
And still, it's the first side, the one that saw reason, that gets accused of starting an "ideology war".

My only consolation is that one day German voters will ask their government what happened with their money that it stupidly gave Greece.
Greece is now asking for 50 billion more to cover debts already incurred, putting them further into debt. EU estimates they will need 83 billion.

You are right Germany is the 'fool', but the fool, bitten once, may not play the fool again (unless trust is established).

Those stupid loans were an attempt to help Greece as it has mismanaged its economy. Do you think it is right that Greece should get away with not paying its debts?
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  #412  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:40
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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If they can be trusted to pay their debts.
Also, Germany is not a bank. It did however agree to provide many billions in good faith, and does not want to commit to more billions if there is a risk of not getting some or all of that money back. Wouldnt you do the same if you were lending a lot of money to a friend who has been reluctant or unable to repay?
Also, I'm not sure about your background, but you obviously think that one only goes to the bank to ask for money.
When I talked about "debt negotiation" I did not mean more money, I meant the process through which you get part of the debt canceled because you can prove to the bank that you can't pay it back.
Happens all the time in business.
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  #413  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:41
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Now somebody (the new Greek government) saw reason, told everybody that this thing is getting nowhere, did not ask for money (it only asked to not pay back those stupid loans), and the other side refuses to see reason because of its obsession with its ideology.
And still, it's the first side, the one that saw reason, that gets accused of starting an "ideology war".
.
Stupid loans? They were stupid because they weren't used (or asked) for better purposes, but they were loans, nevertheless. And should be payed back. There's no ideology here, just common sense.
Frankly, as much as I love Greece and the Greeks, I don't see any single reason for which they should be treated as a special case and excused from paying their debts....
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Old 13.07.2015, 09:43
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Greece is now asking for 50 billion more to cover debts already incurred, putting them further into debt. EU estimates they will need 83 billion.
Greece is NOW asking for 50 billion.
In February Greece did not ask for money, it only asked for:
-relief from upcoming debt payments
-a renegotiation of the requirements for too big budget surpluses in the next years (which strangled the economy)

Because of Germany's (and its vassal states') refusal to see reason, we go to last night's negotiations.
Now Germany has shown its real face to the whole world.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/thisisacoup
Varoufakis tried to saved everybody from this embarrassment.
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Old 13.07.2015, 09:45
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Stupid loans? They were stupid because they weren't used (or asked) for better purposes, but they were loans, nevertheless. And should be payed back. There's no ideology here, just common sense.
Frankly, as much as I love Greece and the Greeks, I don't see any single reason for which they should be treated as a special case and excused from paying their debts....
Again the same obsession.
I hate to break it to you but loans get canceled every day all over the world.
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Old 13.07.2015, 09:47
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Greece is NOW asking for 50 billion.
In February Greece did not ask for money, it only asked for:
-relief from upcoming debt payments
-a renegotiation of the requirements for too big budget surpluses in the next years (which strangled the economy)

Because of Germany's (and its vassal states') refusal to see reason, we go to last night's negotiations.
Now Germany has shown its real face to the whole world.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/thisisacoup
Varoufakis tried to saved everybody from this embarrassment.
This attitude is why Greece is in the situation it is in. Borrow money, no plan to pay it back. No belief it should pay it back. Anyone borrowing money for a house, and not paying back the mortgage, loses the house. Any company borrowing and not paying back goes bankrupt and shuts down. Greece is days away from shutting down, or running on its own without anyone to help as the trust to help does not exist.
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  #417  
Old 13.07.2015, 09:55
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I hate to break it to you but loans get canceled every day all over the world.

Yes, they do. But immediately after a loan is cancelled because it can't be paid back, lenders are generally reluctant to lend again. Sometimes loans are made again after a write down because lendors are convinced that the situation that prevented the repayment has fundamentally changed and improved. I think whether or not this has happened in Greece is at the heart of the discussion. If there is no trust that the results will be different the next time, then going down the same path again is not a good option.
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  #418  
Old 13.07.2015, 10:03
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Seems an agreement has been reached.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33503955

Merely postponing the inevitable I fear. No way is Greece going to be able to turn itself around at this late stage.
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Old 13.07.2015, 10:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Seems an agreement has been reached.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33503955

Merely postponing the inevitable I fear. No way is Greece going to be able to turn itself around at this late stage.
And the markets are up...
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Old 13.07.2015, 10:15
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Seems an agreement has been reached.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33503955

Merely postponing the inevitable I fear. No way is Greece going to be able to turn itself around at this late stage.


Reports are Greek parliament must agree to austerity measures within 3 days before financial talks about the bailout can begin. Will be interesting to see if that happens since the referendum rejected many of these already.


http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-33476597
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