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  #81  
Old 17.06.2011, 00:19
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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"unilaterally re-denominate euro debts into drachma debts" - I doubt they have a sound legal basis on which to do this change.
But how debtors could pursue a remedy in the courts I have no idea?

Anyway probably many of the debtors are banks & this debt restructuring could start a domino effect on the banks.
Plus everybody would start selling their Irish & Portugese bonds before they made the same change which would really pull the rug out from under the euro.
ever heard of the term 'financial oppression'? because it will soon enter the vocabulary of many investors...
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  #82  
Old 17.06.2011, 00:20
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Guess it won't take us long to know what will happen, my assumption is the unless EU really revise their policies, Euro will collapse in matter of 2 years.

Honestly, i don't think Greece, Spain and Portugal are the biggest problem, USA, UK, France are the really big deal and no one really know when this will strike

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
No, the Euro is not the problem at all, and so will not collapse. The problem is some countries who exceeded given limits. However, in case of Spain and Portugal, the industrial-economic substance is there, while it in Greece is not.

You mention the UK and France, and jump to negative forecasts. Problems are there to be solved

In case of Greece a "debts-cut" will become necessary, which means that ALL who are creditors to Greece and Greek companies, only will get some 20% of their money. If the companies in question will profit from an export-risk-guarantee of their countries is another question. But that this debts-cut is inevitable should be clear to everybody
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  #83  
Old 17.06.2011, 02:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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No, the Euro is not the problem at all, and so will not collapse. The problem is some countries who exceeded given limits. However, in case of Spain and Portugal, the industrial-economic substance is there, while it in Greece is not.

You mention the UK and France, and jump to negative forecasts. Problems are there to be solved

In case of Greece a "debts-cut" will become necessary, which means that ALL who are creditors to Greece and Greek companies, only will get some 20% of their money. If the companies in question will profit from an export-risk-guarantee of their countries is another question. But that this debts-cut is inevitable should be clear to everybody
I didn't really jump to negative forecasts, the problem is imo that part of these countries budget is another country's debt, once one struggles, they will all fall one under another, i don't see economies getting any likely to grow as much as they have in the past.
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  #84  
Old 17.06.2011, 02:27
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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No, the Euro is not the problem at all,
Of course it is. Euro = monetary union with no fiscal union. It is an economic prison for countries like Greece Spain etc whose economies aren't on par with Germany's...

The German populace can save the EUR if they don't mind paying higher taxes to pump up club insolvent...

My take on it: ECB will follow Fed Reserve's footsteps and engage in further quantitative easing and maybe, just maybe commence monetising debt in a less subtle fashion.

The peoples of Europe can indeed change the course of things and turn against the banking-political alliance...
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  #85  
Old 17.06.2011, 09:21
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I didn't really jump to negative forecasts, the problem is imo that part of these countries budget is another country's debt, once one struggles, they will all fall one under another, i don't see economies getting any likely to grow as much as they have in the past.
The economy of Germany has grown in spite of Germany taking most of the burden in reality. Look at realities. The German state of Nordrhein-Westfalen alone is twice as large as Greece. Sure, in case the U.K. or France gets belly-up, THEN it would be a catastrophy for all. BUT things at least at present are NOT that way.
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  #86  
Old 17.06.2011, 09:27
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Of course it is. Euro = monetary union with no fiscal union. It is an economic prison for countries like Greece Spain etc whose economies aren't on par with Germany's...

The German populace can save the EUR if they don't mind paying higher taxes to pump up club insolvent...

My take on it: ECB will follow Fed Reserve's footsteps and engage in further quantitative easing and maybe, just maybe commence monetising debt in a less subtle fashion.

The peoples of Europe can indeed change the course of things and turn against the banking-political alliance...
To begin at the bottom, NO, the peoples of Europe cannot "turn against the banking-political alliance" for a variaty of reasons

to continue at the top, by YOUR criteria, Switzerland would no longer exist, as the Cantons not just take most of the taxes (most of the rest goes to the towns and villages), but each Canton having its own Finance Ministry, administering the finances of each Canton independently. It is NOT the federal government, but the conference of the Cantonal Finance Ministers, who decides each year about a system by which the richer Cantons support the less affluent ones. The Federal Government however is in charge of the currency. THIS is the system, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing had in mind when convincing Helmut Schmidt about the Euro. They both however wanted to get a far stronger security mechanism with far more reserves, as they already then forecast the possibility of one or the other members to run into trouble.
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  #87  
Old 17.06.2011, 14:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

They better leave and save face before the Germans get fed up because they are starting believe the Euro is dragging them down...
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  #88  
Old 17.06.2011, 18:22
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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They better leave and save face before the Germans get fed up because they are starting believe the Euro is dragging them down...
They cannot leave. I mean they cannot leave Europe. And to establish a currency of their own would cost some billions they do not have. Germany in reality also had to support Greece, regardless of what money the Greeks are using.
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  #89  
Old 17.06.2011, 19:37
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Of course it is. Euro = monetary union with no fiscal union. It is an economic prison for countries like Greece Spain etc whose economies aren't on par with Germany's...

The German populace can save the EUR if they don't mind paying higher taxes to pump up club insolvent...

My take on it: ECB will follow Fed Reserve's footsteps and engage in further quantitative easing and maybe, just maybe commence monetising debt in a less subtle fashion.

The peoples of Europe can indeed change the course of things and turn against the banking-political alliance...
Economic prison? You mean allowing Greece to borrow with rates equivalent to a more solid rating because they entered a union with Germany, was some how a negative to allow them to continue to borrow and support an economy that had to be more conservative from years ago, not last year, who decided instead of catching this break, took advantage to just keep games going as usual, and now faced with living a social life style of a successful economy, but in reality not as progressed, is a systematic encumbrance against where Greece should be, had it not been in a union with Germany?

Why should Germans continue to dole out welfare to Greece, when either the people or it's governance cannot figure out how to pay for it's basic social needs, after, how many times in the past defaulting?

Because they entered in an investment thought to further secure Europe, but peacefully and socially; economically too. Has Germany benefited this way?
I doubt anyone would cast that Germans are over spenders and lazy.
But saying that Greece is in an economic prison because Germany has made more with their resources then Spain or Greece is silliness.
So, what does it take for Greece to finally realize their kept-behind-closed-doors talents and become the economic super power that clearly Germany has held them back from being...any takers?
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  #90  
Old 17.06.2011, 22:05
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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To begin at the bottom, NO, the peoples of Europe cannot "turn against the banking-political alliance" for a variaty of reasons

to continue at the top, by YOUR criteria, Switzerland would no longer exist, as the Cantons not just take most of the taxes (most of the rest goes to the towns and villages), but each Canton having its own Finance Ministry, administering the finances of each Canton independently.
Wollishofen: Switzerland is one country and it is united. Europe isn't a country.

The US isa united country. Rich states like NY subsidize poor ass ones like hmm Mississippi. But again, we're talking about a country not some unfounded union. Think of it this way, if your brother gets in trouble you will bail him out without thinking about it twice -there is a that bond that chemistry, he's family...- if your neighbour gets in trouble, you will question the why & how and come to the conclusion of why is this guy sponging off me...you will help him out once or twice but that is as far as you'll go.
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  #91  
Old 17.06.2011, 22:16
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Economic prison? You mean allowing Greece to borrow with rates equivalent to a more solid rating because they entered a union with Germany, was some how a negative to allow them to continue to borrow and support an economy that had to be more conservative from years ago, not last year, who decided instead of catching this break, took advantage to just keep games going as usual, and now faced with living a social life style of a successful economy, but in reality not as progressed, is a systematic encumbrance against where Greece should be, had it not been in a union with Germany?
When a country has no control over its monetary policy it is said to be in an economic prison. Look, countries get in trouble all the time, that is why there is a tool called competitive devaluation often used as a last resort-technical default. You get off your debt, you start building yourself again.
Greece isn't allowed to do that at all. They must implement a series of harsh austerity measures which on EU/IMF terms which will CERTAINLY hamper growth for years to come...and I mean lots of years.

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Why should Germans continue to dole out welfare to Greece, when either the people or it's governance cannot figure out how to pay for it's basic social needs, after, how many times in the past defaulting?
Because their banks have massive exposure to greek debt...directly & through derivatives..

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Because they entered in an investment thought to further secure Europe, but peacefully and socially; economically too. Has Germany benefited this way?
I doubt anyone would cast that Germans are over spenders and lazy.
But saying that Greece is in an economic prison because Germany has made more with their resources then Spain or Greece is silliness.
So, what does it take for Greece to finally realize their kept-behind-closed-doors talents and become the economic super power that clearly Germany has held them back from being...any takers?
Let's be honest, the French & Germans were both greedy, they wanted to take the little guy in and financially enslave him...in this case, the little guy was a big ass liar who cooked books and nailed them in return.
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  #92  
Old 17.06.2011, 22:36
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Wollishofen: Switzerland is one country and it is united. Europe isn't a country.

The US isa united country. Rich states like NY subsidize poor ass ones like hmm Mississippi. But again, we're talking about a country not some unfounded union. Think of it this way, if your brother gets in trouble you will bail him out without thinking about it twice -there is a that bond that chemistry, he's family...- if your neighbour gets in trouble, you will question the why & how and come to the conclusion of why is this guy sponging off me...you will help him out once or twice but that is as far as you'll go.
Just to be pedantic; Switzerland is technically a confederation although it behaves more like a federation.
One key difference between a confederation & a federation is like Hotel California in a federation you can check out but you cannot leave.

USA is a federation.

Europe is somewhere between a confederation & a federation; it is hard to define exactly......
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  #93  
Old 17.06.2011, 22:59
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Wollishofen: Switzerland is one country and it is united. Europe isn't a country.

The US isa united country. Rich states like NY subsidize poor ass ones like hmm Mississippi. But again, we're talking about a country not some unfounded union. Think of it this way, if your brother gets in trouble you will bail him out without thinking about it twice -there is a that bond that chemistry, he's family...- if your neighbour gets in trouble, you will question the why & how and come to the conclusion of why is this guy sponging off me...you will help him out once or twice but that is as far as you'll go.
I think you know my brother....a little too well.
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  #94  
Old 17.06.2011, 23:12
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

I'm worried about following EU expansions, it's ridiclous. There are already proven facts that the vastly diverse economies in the EU a creating a SERIOUS problem for the stability of the whole of the EU, so why the hell are they letting even more countries in???

PS: This comment is purely economical, has nothing to do with the people from these new candidate countries!
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Old 17.06.2011, 23:17
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I'm worried about following EU expansions, it's ridiclous. There are already proven facts that the vastly diverse economies in the EU a creating a SERIOUS problem for the stability of the whole of the EU, so why the hell are they letting even more countries in???

PS: This comment is purely economical, has nothing to do with the people from these new candidate countries!
Sure it isn't. You want all the Serbian girls all to yourself....!!!
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Old 17.06.2011, 23:19
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Just to be pedantic; Switzerland is technically a confederation although it behaves more like a federation..
It is then very misleading that the coutry´s constitution is called Bundesverfassung/constitution fédérale/constituzione federale/constituziun federala.
Same with Bundesversammlung/Assemblée fédérale/Assemblea federale/Assamblea federala.

Swiss really suck at labeling their institutions.
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Old 17.06.2011, 23:37
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Just to be pedantic; Switzerland is technically a confederation although it behaves more like a federation.
One key difference between a confederation & a federation is like Hotel California in a federation you can check out but you cannot leave.
Good point Marton!


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I think you know my brother....a little too well.
haha that made me laugh but it really speaks of how we will always reach out to family members regardless of how irresponsible...

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I'm worried about following EU expansions, it's ridiclous.
Politicians admire the idea of expanding...it makes them 'look' more important regardless of consequences...
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  #98  
Old 18.06.2011, 01:07
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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I'm worried about following EU expansions, it's ridiclous. There are already proven facts that the vastly diverse economies in the EU a creating a SERIOUS problem for the stability of the whole of the EU, so why the hell are they letting even more countries in???

PS: This comment is purely economical, has nothing to do with the people from these new candidate countries!
Why ? A) because the basic thing about the E.U. is that it in the end is to include ALL of Europe, more or less at least, and this includes Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey B) the name has been changed from the EEC (European ECONOMIC Community) to the far more ambitious "European Union" which it is not.
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Old 18.06.2011, 13:44
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Why ? A) because the basic thing about the E.U. is that it in the end is to include ALL of Europe, more or less at least, and this includes Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey B) the name has been changed from the EEC (European ECONOMIC Community) to the far more ambitious "European Union" which it is not.
True I preferred EEC myself

The ominous thing about the EU is the very powerful unelected EU commissioners who do not seem to be fully under the control of the elected European Parliament.

I see Moody are threatening Italy with a credit rating downgrade, tough & tougher times for the euro.

Be interesting to see if the involved EU ministers do agree the Greek bail out tomorrow & for how long that will bring peace.
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Old 18.06.2011, 15:09
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Why ? A) because the basic thing about the E.U. is that it in the end is to include ALL of Europe, more or less at least, and this includes Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey ...
But just where does Europe end then? Israel has expressed its desire to join along with EU commissioners, if Israel is a European country then so is Syria Jordan Egypt Iraq Iran Afghanistan...and if Russia can be part of the EU then so can Mongolia.
The question now is, who pays for all this?
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