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  #161  
Old 02.09.2011, 20:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Yield on 2 year Greek debt is now over 47% - who really believes Greece will survive as a eurozone country.
Small investors may do very well, on the 2 year debt they don't have to except the terms of the majority & may get paid out in full. Ireland's debt is not the same. Could be an interesting punt.
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  #162  
Old 02.09.2011, 21:10
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Small investors may do very well, on the 2 year debt they don't have to except the terms of the majority & may get paid out in full. Ireland's debt is not the same. Could be an interesting punt.
true......
Is that a pun about Ireland?
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  #163  
Old 03.09.2011, 13:43
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true......
Is that a pun about Ireland?
You don't have the right to refuse any exchange on the Irish bonds. In theory private investors could get payment at par, but who knows. If it works it's a great trade, I am waiting for an even better price!
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  #164  
Old 04.10.2011, 12:50
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Quote "Evangelos Venizelos (Greek finance minister) declared last night that the intention was to present "for the first time after many years" a primary surplus of €3.2bn next year compared with a deficit of €29bn only two years ago. He said the fiscal consolidation had been "very strong and very fast.""

Reminds of the quick turn-around in fiscal budget Greece announced before being allowed to join the euro; hope it is true this time.
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  #165  
Old 11.10.2011, 22:22
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Incredible numbers!

The Greek two-year bond yield fell today 20 basis points to 73.20 percent after earlier rising to 77.15 percent. The securities traded at 39.56 percent of face value.

So the market has priced in a 60% haircut.....

Slovakia has rejected the EFSF expansion - I guess this is temporary & they will vote again in some days time after some political fixing - little reaction in the markets as yet

Last edited by marton; 12.10.2011 at 00:32. Reason: slovakia
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  #166  
Old 17.10.2011, 22:02
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

& today
"Top officials from the US Treasury and the International Monetary Fund are privately worried that Europe’s `Grand Plan’ to overcome the debt crisis is fundamentally deficient and may fail to restore market confidence."

It really needs the eurozone politicians to announce a credible plan instead of announcing "we will announce plan soon"

This brinkmanship could lead to a disaster......
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  #167  
Old 21.10.2011, 00:35
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

just gets worse....
"Plans to "decisively address" the debt crisis this weekend were plunged into chaos on tonight as European leaders were forced to announce another "summit" next week amid political deadlock between France and Germany."

Keep buying gold or dollars but not euros; & not the CHF while it is tied to this dying duck
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  #168  
Old 24.10.2011, 21:32
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

As forecast they have now asked Greek bondholders to take a voluntary 60% haircut
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  #169  
Old 24.10.2011, 21:46
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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As forecast they have now asked Greek bondholders to take a voluntary 60% haircut
Where are you seeing 60%? Reuters is claiming 40% - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79M2HW20111023 not that I'd be surprised at 60% but after getting stuffed for 1.25 chf/eur today, I keep wondering how long this agony theatre is going to continue. It's like watching paint dry this financial crisis as you know it will eventually, but it's so terrifically agonizing waiting for it to finally get on with it.
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  #170  
Old 24.10.2011, 21:49
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Where are you seeing 60%? Reuters is claiming 40% - http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79M2HW20111023 not that I'd be surprised at 60% but after getting stuffed for 1.25 chf/eur today, I keep wondering how long this agony theatre is going to continue. It's like watching paint dry this financial crisis as you know it will eventually, but it's so terrifically agonizing waiting for it to finally get on with it.
Financial Times today
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  #171  
Old 30.10.2011, 00:50
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Seems the deal requires the banks to take a 50% haircut.
But
If I was a bank that had taken out CDSs to cover any loss why would I take a 50% haircut when I coud simply call up my CDSs & have no loss????
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  #172  
Old 30.10.2011, 13:26
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Seems the deal requires the banks to take a 50% haircut.
But
If I was a bank that had taken out CDSs to cover any loss why would I take a 50% haircut when I coud simply call up my CDSs & have no loss????
Anyone know, will CDS pay out on this? I would have thought that a 50% haircut is a default event?
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  #173  
Old 30.10.2011, 16:11
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Anyone know, will CDS pay out on this? I would have thought that a 50% haircut is a default event?
About "a 50% haircut is a default event" seems not if it is voluntary! That is what the politicians hope.

If I was a bank & had insured my bonds with a CDS then why would I take a voluntary 50% haircut?

This high finance is too complex for me...
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  #174  
Old 02.11.2011, 15:57
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

Reviving an existent thread,

Well a few days ago France and Germany were pleased that at last it looked as if Greece was going to co-operate and work towards sorting out their Euro debt.

Now this morning George Papandreou has announced he will need a referendum before he can agree to the bail out terms. Heads of state are shocked that George is doing this: they assumed he had the authority, even though 6 of his party are working against him.

Often I read that people are saying, the alternative is that Greece will be bankrupt. I understand that some French and German banks might lose heavily on their Greek investments, but why is that such a bad thing? What will happen in Greece? Obviously Greece will leave the Euro, but then parts of Scandinavia, Switzerland, and eastern Europe do quite nicely without it.
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  #175  
Old 02.11.2011, 16:08
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

They shouldn't have joined in the first place. Ideology isn't the right way forward for a financial (without the political) union. I see it as ... Greece leaves; new currency implemented; debts virtually wiped out (hello Latin America), and other weak European countries looking enviously on and maybe following.

I think I still have some pesetas somewhere.
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  #176  
Old 02.11.2011, 16:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Now this morning George Papandreou has announced he will need a referendum before he can agree to the bail out terms. Heads of state are shocked that George is doing this: they assumed he had the authority, even though 6 of his party are working against him.
Actually it's a very smart move.

If the referendum is accepted that would also be a clear message to the protestors to shut up.

If it is rejected and France and Germany press the Greek governmant to go ahead anyway that would be another nail in the coffin of the Eurocracy and in standing up to them, Papandreu would be the hero of Europhobes from across the continent.

If it is rehected, and France and Germany offer more favourable conditions, that would be a win for Greece.

In other words, he can't lose.
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  #177  
Old 03.11.2011, 00:39
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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According to latest news there are discussions to have greece leaving the euro zone.
6 months later this is closer to reality than ever.
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  #178  
Old 03.11.2011, 09:34
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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6 months later this is closer to reality than ever.
Perilously so, indeed -
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011...e-ejected.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...th-Greece.html

Interesting times. What worries me most is that few even here are talking about this rather huge problem which is often a direct indicator of how scary the problem is. Nobody seems to know what will happen if there's a run on the banks which seems to be where all this is headed.
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  #179  
Old 03.11.2011, 17:54
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

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Perilously so, indeed -
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011...e-ejected.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...th-Greece.html

Interesting times. What worries me most is that few even here are talking about this rather huge problem which is often a direct indicator of how scary the problem is. Nobody seems to know what will happen if there's a run on the banks which seems to be where all this is headed.
Seems referendum is cancelled - interesting times indeed
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  #180  
Old 12.11.2011, 14:01
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Re: Greece discussing leaving the Euro Zone (Spiegel Online)

So the solution supported by the non-elected EU officials for Italy & Greece is to replace their elected leaders with non-elected leaders.

Now if I was a conspiracy theorist....
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