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  #21  
Old 28.06.2011, 11:34
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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The first sign of real development will be when lots and lots of people will want to migrate to India or China. But I guess that moment will be not any time soon.
Well people always migrate to more prosperous, safer country. As for India, it is happening even now, from its neighbour Bagladesh. Just read some newspapers from eastern parts of India, like Assam, Tripura, Mizoram etc. If we call India poor, then Bangladesh is super-poor. If China continues its growth, I guess You can meet a lot of mongolians, north-koreans (lucky ones) and other neighbours in Bejing in few years (if they are not there yet ) working as lowcost alternative to natives in some not-so-posh jobs.
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Old 28.06.2011, 15:48
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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The first sign of real development will be when lots and lots of people will want to migrate to India or China. But I guess that moment will be not any time soon.
We've been asked to accept postings in China and India, we declined, although we may do a short trip if really pushed. My sister loved India and Goa- but not to live. People I know who have done exchange trips to Shanghai and Taiwan have been very disappointed, they complained of food, sexist attitudes towards women, pollution and housing standards. Most Chinese and Indians that I know refuse to go back- even when fired; they fought too hard to get out.

To qoute one congressman- the Chinese are all Ra-Ra and the Americans all gloom and doom, the Chinese are over- confident and the US lacks confidence. When is China going to stop copying and start innovating?

Anyway, where is Europe, the Middle East and Brazil in this equation?
I met a family of doctors recently who work 3 months a year and travel the rest. They are young and looking for a country to settle on- so far it's Argentina- free education, but are looking at Costa Rica, it's just a reminder that China and India are not the only emerging economies. Their success rests on cheap labour.
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Old 28.06.2011, 15:52
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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People I know who have done exchange trips to Shanghai and Taiwan have been very disappointed, they complained of food
I stopped reading after this sentence. WTF of the day.
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Old 28.06.2011, 16:07
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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I stopped reading after this sentence. WTF of the day.
Did you live there? Food is pretty awful, Shanghai has some good international food but the local food isn't, most Chinese would agree too.

And that doesn't even include food safety, availability of fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, etc etc. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...485,full.story
And talking to many, many people there I don't seem to be the only one to think so, check any expat forum, people aren't raving about the local food, too oily and bland. Good food in my opinion is found in Yunnan, Hunan and Szechuan, very rural regions with a spicier, fresher and more varied cuisine. Cantonese food is sweeter and lighter and the most popular in the West, but not my favourite either.Mind you, the city is massive and it's always possible to get decent food, but it pales to any South-east Asian country.
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Old 28.06.2011, 16:25
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

http://www.engrish.com/ These Plucky Chinese Always Strive To Be Western....
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Old 28.06.2011, 17:23
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Did you live there? Food is pretty awful, Shanghai has some good international food but the local food isn't, most Chinese would agree too.

And that doesn't even include food safety, availability of fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, etc etc. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...485,full.story
And talking to many, many people there I don't seem to be the only one to think so, check any expat forum, people aren't raving about the local food, too oily and bland. Good food in my opinion is found in Yunnan, Hunan and Szechuan, very rural regions with a spicier, fresher and more varied cuisine. Cantonese food is sweeter and lighter and the most popular in the West, but not my favourite either.Mind you, the city is massive and it's always possible to get decent food, but it pales to any South-east Asian country.
The people I know who went were very pro- Chinese, before they went. I suppose they were a bit naiive and the culture shock was too much. My family (not me) love to try new foods, my daughter was digging into a sheep's skull a couple of days ago- telling me it's much more nutritious than McDonald's, plus she once had a nasty case of food poisoning from a Mickey D, soft ice in Switzerland. However, when you are stuck in China on a student budget, I think an affordable Big Mac would be a godsend to some and a safer bet when considering stomach bugs.

I have been taught how to cook by Chinese, and I have the best cookbook- The Complete Asian cook book by Charmain Solomon,
http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Asian.../dp/080481791X

but most Chinese in China, have to be more inventive based on availability and budget.

Most who visit aren't prepared for the pollution, there's a reason why you see people walking around in masks.
Some Chinese I know can't afford to return because of the one-child policy. I understand the reasoning behind the one-child policy in the short-term, but wonder how this will work out long-term economically with one child to support 4 aging grandparents. Or the fact that there will be an over-abundance of men.

It seems that some are already predicted problems, such as the real estate bubble. here's Nouriel Roubini's view:

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Nouriel Roubini Sees China Bubble Bursting in 2013 After Change in Political Leadership
http://historysquared.com/2011/04/14...al-leadership/
What would become of the world without cheap Chinese goods?
I suppose that I should just go and see it for myself, but then I will have to use Chinese airplanes?

Last edited by hoppy; 28.06.2011 at 17:33.
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Old 28.06.2011, 17:30
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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However, when you are stuck in China on a student budget, I think an affordable Big Mac would be a godsend to some and a safer bet when considering stomach bugs.
Ok, I changed my mind. This is the WTF of the day.

Seriously: There is either a Mc D or KFC at EVERY corner of any Chinese city. Literally - including Tiananmen! Mc Donald's alone has some 1200 restaurants in the country, nearly exclusively in the cities.There used to be even a star bucks WITHIN the forbidden city.

Costs of a Big Mac in China is 2.30 USD (15 RMB). A menue was something around 20 RMB so roughly 20-25% of Swiss prices.

Bottom line: You really really need to visit the country before talking rubbish about it.
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Old 28.06.2011, 17:59
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Ok, I changed my mind. This is the WTF of the day.

Seriously: There is either a Mc D or KFC at EVERY corner of any Chinese city. Literally - including Tiananmen! Mc Donald's alone has some 1200 restaurants in the country, nearly exclusively in the cities.There used to be even a star bucks WITHIN the forbidden city.

Costs of a Big Mac in China is 2.30 USD (15 RMB). A menue was something around 20 RMB so roughly 20-25% of Swiss prices.

Bottom line: You really really need to visit the country before talking rubbish about it.
Exactly, so what do you think these exchange students ate? ( actually it's 20-30 RMB for a meal so a bit more expensive.

A Big mac is not so affordable to the regular Chinese labourer, they get about 75c an hour, they got a pay rise last year and are now the third highest paid labourers in Asia. So a Big mac will be about 3 hours work- about 6 hours work for a Big Mac meal. How does that relate to Switzerland? Would you be prepared to work 6 hours for a Big Mac meal or would you eat mainly rice and what you could find cheap off the local market?
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  #29  
Old 28.06.2011, 18:06
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Exactly, so what do you think these exchange students ate? ( actually it's 20-30 RMB for a meal so a bit more expensive.

A Big mac is not so affordable to the regular Chinese labourer, they get about 75c an hour, they got a pay rise last year and are now the third highest paid labourers in Asia. So a Big mac will be about 3 hours work- about 6 hours work for a Big Mac meal. How does that relate to Switzerland? Would you be prepared to work 6 hours for a Big Mac meal or would you eat mainly rice and what you could find cheap off the local market?
I NEVER eat at Mc Donalds when in Asia - it is not a cheap meal as it is here, but a luxury. You can have a VERY decent meal at an average restaurant for 30 RMB.
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Old 28.06.2011, 18:16
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

The masks are not for pollution but to stop germs spreading.

Taiwan doesn't have the same food scandal issues that China does (bar the odd exception, like some recent plastic worries - similar to Germany with the killer sprouts).

Anyway, food quality improves with the country not the other way around, so I'm not sure why someone not liking all the food in Shanghai means the country is doomed.

Look at the UK - food, which was good for the elite in the 19th century, took a huge dive during the wars and only really recovered in the 80s!
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Old 28.06.2011, 18:18
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Exactly, so what do you think these exchange students ate? ( actually it's 20-30 RMB for a meal so a bit more expensive.

A Big mac is not so affordable to the regular Chinese labourer, they get about 75c an hour, they got a pay rise last year and are now the third highest paid labourers in Asia. So a Big mac will be about 3 hours work- about 6 hours work for a Big Mac meal. How does that relate to Switzerland? Would you be prepared to work 6 hours for a Big Mac meal or would you eat mainly rice and what you could find cheap off the local market?
I don't get it. You tell me that some exchange students eat all the time at Mc Donalds, didn't like the local food and could not afford it - while its better and cheaper than Mc Donalds, so China must be a bad place?

Sounds more like the stereotypical US exchange students to me.

And what does the average workers income have to do with the topic at all?
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Old 28.06.2011, 18:22
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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I NEVER eat at Mc Donalds when in Asia - it is not a cheap meal as it is here, but a luxury. You can have a VERY decent meal at an average restaurant for 30 RMB.
Well there isn't one on every corner anyway. Still if you are non-tourist/ western exchange student and know where to get a decent 30 RMB meal, you must remember it is about 6 hours work for the majority.
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Old 28.06.2011, 18:29
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

Hi All

My 2 cents. Actually it is not this or that meaning, it is not going to be Either India or China or West. It is going to be a more balanced world then right now.

The difference now is that earlier most of the resource consumption or Capital creation or innovations were purely meant for western world. Now whatever some people say here, the fact of the matter is that the standard of living and consumption or GDP size in the East is going up. Which means that in future for any resources west will compete with not so rich east. We already see that happening (Eg: Price of commodities in last recession).

Similarly whatever we write about cost of Mcdonalds, the fact is India and China have given more new billionaires in last 5 years then any western country (not that I support or like it, but who cares). It will continue like that.

In the end every country will be like mega Corporations. Each corporation positions itself in a specific mass or niche based on what it wants to do an what it is capable of doing. Like H&M and Prada. It is already going that way. Germans even after all the outsourcing are know to be the engineering marvels (and thus a large export economy inspite of all cost), Chines do great job in producing cheaper and low value stuff, Indian good in R&D and knowledge based Industry, Africa is giving lot of raw material so on and so forth.

What people/countries are slowly realizing is that it doesn't pay only to be a consumer. US made this notions in large of 90s and last decade but if you see the recent realignment of strategy they are talking about rebuilding the manufacturing and services base. So in the next 10-15 years such adjustments and realignments will happen. And then that will become a regular process, like in companies. They keep realigning them selves to get the best value.

So the bottom line, we will have a more balanced globe and very high amount of trade traffic and everyone will live happily ever after
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Old 28.06.2011, 18:35
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Well there isn't one on every corner anyway. Still if you are non-tourist/ western exchange student and know where to get a decent 30 RMB meal, you must remember it is about 6 hours work for the majority.
You are really freaking me out with your off topic posts full of half-knowledge and ignorance. Have you ever been to China? Yes or no? The average city dweller can very well afford a 30 RMB meal. There are just hundreds of millions of poor living in the rural areas and factory workers in the very south that bring the average so far down. My wifes' family members in Beijing have incomes that by now are not much lower than a German salary.

And yes, there really is fast food on every corner in the inner cities. Believe it or not.
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Old 28.06.2011, 19:22
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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You are really freaking me out with your off topic posts full of half-knowledge and ignorance. Have you ever been to China? Yes or no? The average city dweller can very well afford a 30 RMB meal. There are just hundreds of millions of poor living in the rural areas and factory workers in the very south that bring the average so far down. My wifes' family members in Beijing have incomes that by now are not much lower than a German salary.

And yes, there really is fast food on every corner in the inner cities. Believe it or not.
Nope never lived there, like I said before- had the offer with plenty of incentives and refused. I assume the offer is always there.

I suppose it depends on how you calculate the average:

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But as the premier spoke in the glittering Great Hall, the best illustration of China’s uneven distribution was sitting right before him: 70 of the wealthiest of 2,990 deputies, who, according to Bloomberg, have combined fortunes of more than $75 billion.

By comparison, World Bank figures show that close to 500 million Chinese still live on less than $2 per day.
Last summer the Swiss bank, Credit Suisse, issued a report warning that China’s wealth gap is now approaching levels unknown outside Africa.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/ar...-rich-and-poor
Here is what Virtual tourist has to say about wearing a mask and pollution in China Beijing etc, Taiwan has improved but still heavily affected by pollution.

http://www.virtualtourist.com/travel...tion-BR-1.html
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  #36  
Old 28.06.2011, 19:43
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Well there isn't one on every corner anyway. Still if you are non-tourist/ western exchange student and know where to get a decent 30 RMB meal, you must remember it is about 6 hours work for the majority.
To be honest there really is one around every corner, even in provincial cities, Chinese really love McDo and KFC like crazy. Chinese food isn't that cheap anymore either, a simple dish of noodles at a local stall costs 12-15 rmb as well in Guangzhou, same as a BigMac actually.
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Old 28.06.2011, 20:14
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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India has more potential than China, but both pale in comparison to the West for atleast the next 30 years. At that depends on how they deal with both countries running out of water in the next decade.....! Good luck to them both.
As you state, water will be an issue as will food.

As the Indian population as a percentage of existing population is expanding at a much higher rate than China will be the downfall of India and China will do better than India in the long term; as well as the fact that China is managing to take control of commodities/minerals/raw materials from other continents (Africa etc) and is becoming an empire.
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Old 28.06.2011, 23:32
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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As you state, water will be an issue as will food.

As the Indian population as a percentage of existing population is expanding at a much higher rate than China will be the downfall of India and China will do better than India in the long term; as well as the fact that China is managing to take control of commodities/minerals/raw materials from other continents (Africa etc) and is becoming an empire.
Well neither has it right I think, India has a massive population that is still increasing, China already has a very dense population in inhabitable areas (large parts of China is desert or mountains) and is aging very rapidly, the reproduction rate in the cities is comparable to the West or in the case of Shanghai even Japan, with increasingly many young people delaying even the one child they're allowed to have. Both are destroying their environment at an allarming rate, but China leading. China is quickly depleting a lot of goodwill towards its economic rebirth by being overly assertive in its foreign policy and being the big bully in the region, the very reason why Vietnam and others welcome the US again.. And after having witnessed the Chinese education system firsthand I see even fewer reasons why it should continue to grow at the same pace. To me the question isn't how we manage China's rise, it's much more how will China manage its economic slowdown.
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Old 29.06.2011, 00:58
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Chairman Mao might take exception to this as he engineered the great famine of '58-'62. I think the estimates were 45 million Chinese died of starvation.

fduvall
I mentioned this quite clearly when pointing to "the Great Leap Forward"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk...ap_forward.htm
That attempt to shortcut development ended in total failure and more than 50 million people dying of starvation between 1958 and 62 . Previous famines resulted from the Chinese Civil War between the Kuomintang and the Communists in 1944 to 1949, and later ones from the excesses of the Cultural Revolution (1966-76).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution
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Old 30.06.2011, 08:26
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Did you live there? Food is pretty awful, Shanghai has some good international food but the local food isn't, most Chinese would agree too.

And that doesn't even include food safety, availability of fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, etc etc. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...485,full.story
And talking to many, many people there I don't seem to be the only one to think so, check any expat forum, people aren't raving about the local food, too oily and bland. Good food in my opinion is found in Yunnan, Hunan and Szechuan, very rural regions with a spicier, fresher and more varied cuisine. Cantonese food is sweeter and lighter and the most popular in the West, but not my favourite either.Mind you, the city is massive and it's always possible to get decent food, but it pales to any South-east Asian country.
The reason Cantonese food is so population in the West is due to Hong Kong and the fact that the greater Guangdong region (along with Fujian) have exported more Chinese than anywhere else to the rest of the world going back to the 19th century. Poorer immigrants often open resteraunts, so...they serve "Chinese food" which is their regional food.

Shanghai people like a lot of cold meat dishes, as well as sweet and sour stuff. I studied in Shanghai, and did not care for their food, food from Beijing is better, a lot of noodle and also bread dishes.

My favorite is in Sichuan/Chongqing..."hot pot", spicy stuff...very good. Also ethnic Uyghur food from Xinjiang is EXCELLENT. But those restaurants are hard to find because few people leave china from there.
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