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  #41  
Old 30.06.2011, 10:08
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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My favorite is in Sichuan/Chongqing..."hot pot", spicy stuff...very good. Also ethnic Uyghur food from Xinjiang is EXCELLENT. But those restaurants are hard to find because few people leave china from there.
All true what you said, people talk about Beijing duck as if it were a standard dish, but they've got great noodles and dumplings up north too among others, maybe it's because I was shown around by local students at the time but I had much better food in Beijing than in the south. I've spent quite a bit of time in Shanghai and Zhejiang and Guangzhou but wasn't impressed by the food. I like the Uighur food too, lamb kebabs with yoghurt and mint, delicious.
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  #42  
Old 30.06.2011, 10:34
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Also ethnic Uyghur food from Xinjiang is EXCELLENT. But those restaurants are hard to find because few people leave china from there.
You'll find lots of them in Guangzhou..I usually ate there, because the people were rather friendly and cooked with some understanding of hygiene standards.

I find Cantonese dishes rather inferior as they seem to have flavor added after it has been cooked. Thus making it a salty, greasy but yet rather bland food.

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Old 30.06.2011, 12:21
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

It is NOT going to be India or China BUT India AND China. Collaboration between the two giants. Yes, they have differences in the past, however, these outway the incentives for their future.

For the Aussie's out there..Back in Oz early 1990's Paul Keating cut a lot of slack when he strategised and nutured relationships between the Chinese gov more so than the US...the vast majority ridiculed him... and now times have changed haven't they? The re-emergence of China is inevitable so we all have to adapt, but, for reources rich Australia i think we are sold out already!!!!!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...-1226083817540

The big question is should our children be learning Mandarin etc.... and not French?

watch this
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  #44  
Old 30.06.2011, 12:32
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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It is NOT going to be India or China BUT India AND China. Collaboration between the two giants. Yes, they have differences in the past, however, these outway the incentives for their future.

For the Aussie's out there..Back in Oz early 1990's Paul Keating cut a lot of slack when he strategised and nutured relationships between the Chinese gov more so than the US...the vast majority ridiculed him... and now times have changed haven't they? The resurgence of China is inevitable so we all have to adapt, but, for reources rich Australia i think we are sold out already!!!!!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...-1226083817540

The big question is should our children be learning Mandarin etc.... and not French?

watch this


The entire economy of Australia will collapse in the next 12 months my friend. China is set to implode, iron ore prices will likely collapses and the AUD had daily, weekly, and monthly dmark counts on it.

This is a replay of Australia 1990... Remember? Like when everyone in Double Bay and Balmain wanted their children to learn Japanese? Then Oz went into the biggest recession its ever seen and the government debased the currency. Anytime an Asian country accounts for 30% of Aussie exports it has always signaled the top in the market for Oz. China is now at 30% of exports. Or is it different this time?

India has plenty of Iron Ore in Orissa. They could boost coking coal demand, but it wont cover a China drop in demand.
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  #45  
Old 30.06.2011, 13:52
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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It is NOT going to be India or China BUT India AND China. Collaboration between the two giants. Yes, they have differences in the past, however, these outway the incentives for their future.
Can't view your video (work - no youtube) but I find that a highly unlikely scenario, and fewer experts within India and China seem to consider it realistic too.
There has been talk in the past about using competitive advantages of China and India respectively (manufacturing & service sector) to cooperate and become global cost leaders... haven't heard that for a while now, China is trying to massively expand its service sector with little success so far as I can see, while India reluctantly agrees to have more foreign manufacturing in some of its states. Both are agricultural exporters and importers, both cannot cover their commodities or energy needs without foreign markets, they have unsettled border conflicts, a war on influence in South East Asia, especially Burma for its vast gas reserves... I think they have pretty much given up the idea of Pan-Asian cooperation, China can't even manage to have good relations with its direct, culturally closer neighbours, let alone India.. They might have similar interests in international bodies and matters of foreign policy as well as a general suspicion of the West and Western corporations but otherwise... clearly a strategic rivalry.

I agree with Zuger's assessment of Australia, its economy is too closely aligned with China's growth and infrastructure construction. While Germany and Switzerland will suffer too from an economic slowdown in China the impact will slightly be less drastic as the demand in machinery and luxury goods among others could be much less elastic than the need for commodities, at least that's what I think.
But even a burst of the property market in China will not necessarily mean an end to construction, these properties are simply unaffordable for the potential buyers. China plans to construct vast amounts of cheap housing, this could keep construction going for a long time if the promise is held.
Either way, in the long run Australia has lots of commodities the world needs, so it'll do fine.
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  #46  
Old 30.06.2011, 14:33
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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...................China can't even manage to have good relations with its direct, culturally closer neighbours, let alone India.. .............................
I agree; close partnership between a Communist country & a strongly religious one? Do not see it happening myself.
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  #47  
Old 30.06.2011, 15:07
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

BBC article highlighting the growing disparity between urban climbers and rural poor.

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Of particular concern is the large pool of migrant labour.

At the end of 2009, China had an estimated 229.8 million rural migrant workers, of which about 149 million are thought to work outside their registered home area.

The official average monthly wage for these workers, many of whom work in manufacturing and assembly, amounted to 1,417 yuan, though unofficial reports suggest many earn less that 1,000 yuan a month.

Moreover, because these migrants work outside their registered area, the low wage rates conceal enormous personal sacrifices, which include long working hours, poor housing conditions, and, most significantly, a loss in welfare benefits associated with the household registration system known as Hukou.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13945072

Actually some of the charts in the article remind me of the growing gap in the US between rich and poor- the erosion of the middle class.

The Chinese government are trying to address this, but I wonder, as the elite take control, how effective any proposed measures to address the disparity will be.

It would be interesting to see a chart comparing the amount of money spent on education between the Chinese nouveau riche and the poor.

The turning point for China or India will be when, and if, their fledgling scholars return home. I often wonder what will happen if the Arab diaspora who are studying/ working abroad returned. I think that there is more chance of the Arabs returning than the Chinese or Indians
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:17
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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I think that there is more chance of the Arabs returning than the Chinese or Indians
And how did you come to this enlightened conclusion?

I know personally a number of Indian IT guys who moved back to India after some years in Zurich. Their experience here got them good jobs home and they can happily live a very good life there.
I know even more Chinese. Good educated people like to gain some experience here and then return home to make even better careers in the booming economy.
The ones who don't want to return home are not the university educated ones, but the poor. Working as a cleaner in Switzerland is probably not the most comfortable life, but you have enough to eat, a place to live and can send the kids to a school. Not the case in poor countries. Most Arabs in Europe are more on the latter side, definitely not scholars. Why would they want to go home?
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:21
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

A very good post that I enjoyed reading, thanks simon_ch, although there are a couple of remarks I cannot help making:

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But even a burst of the property market in China will not necessarily mean an end to construction, these properties are simply unaffordable for the potential buyers. China plans to construct vast amounts of cheap housing, this could keep construction going for a long time if the promise is held.
Then again, if - or when - the Chinese property bubble bursts, the demand for government-subsidised inexpensive housing will evaporate, since prices of privately-built real estate will rather quickly come down to a reasonable level.

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Either way, in the long run Australia has lots of commodities the world needs, so it'll do fine.
Most of those commodities can be found elsewhere, it's just that Australia has the roads and ports to ship them as well as vast extents of desert where a mine can be built and run with negligible resistance from the local dwellers (whose inhabitats will largely be destroyed in the process). If the prices of commodities will stay high enough long enough, the former advantage could soon be lost.
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:25
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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And how did you come to this enlightened conclusion?

I know personally a number of Indian IT guys who moved back to India after some years in Zurich. Their experience here got them good jobs home and they can happily live a very good life there.
I know even more Chinese. Good educated people like to gain some experience here and then return home to make even better careers in the booming economy.
The ones who don't want to return home are not the university educated ones, but the poor. Working as a cleaner in Switzerland is probably not the most comfortable life, but you have enough to eat, a place to live and can send the kids to a school. Not the case in poor countries. Most Arabs in Europe are more on the latter side, definitely not scholars. Why would they want to go home?
Ive lived in San Fran for a few years. 67% Chinese population in SF. I have yet to meet one Chinese person who has gone back to China who hasnt come back to the US after 2 or 3 years with his tail between his legs. The first complaint is that CHina is very expensive (i.e. you can buy a pair of Chinese made jeans at Wal-Mart for $20 in the US, but the same jeans in China are $70 because there are no export subsidies) And they simply didnt make enough money to make it worth their time and effort. They were expected to make some one, their boss who had connections, money and make a lower than expected income for them selves. Its still a 3rd world country with 3rd world wage competition.

I think people who are experts in their field dont want to move to China. They end up in HK or move back to the US. But maybe its different for European Chinese?
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:29
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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And how did you come to this enlightened conclusion?

I know personally a number of Indian IT guys who moved back to India after some years in Zurich. Their experience here got them good jobs home and they can happily live a very good life there.
I know even more Chinese. Good educated people like to gain some experience here and then return home to make even better careers in the booming economy.
The ones who don't want to return home are not the university educated ones, but the poor. Working as a cleaner in Switzerland is probably not the most comfortable life, but you have enough to eat, a place to live and can send the kids to a school. Not the case in poor countries. Most Arabs in Europe are more on the latter side, definitely not scholars. Why would they want to go home?
I think that there is a big difference between being Indian or Chinese in Switzerland and being Indian or Chinese in the US.
I guess that we are both viewing this based on personal experience. Most of the Arabs that I mixed with in Europe are from the elite in their own countries and have returned, well kind of returned they are globe trotters. If we are discussing economic refugees that's different, there are always the boat-people. Then there are the political refugees biding their time. But those who make a difference to a country are the wealthy or intellectuals. I've know Chinese intellectuals in the UK Switzerland and now the US- I don't know any that want to return- except to visit relatives. They even have their own arranged marriages here among the diaspora, with coordinated cooperation from back home. It's a world within a world here in the US or the UK- I didn't see that kind of community in Switzerland. In Switzerland the Chinese seemed more isolated,fewer of them, not much of a sense of community other than to mix with other Asians, they weren't that popular with the Swiss-Tibetan community.

Last edited by hoppy; 30.06.2011 at 15:52. Reason: Took out C'mon bite me bro
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  #52  
Old 30.06.2011, 15:41
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Then again, if - or when - the Chinese property bubble bursts, the demand for government-subsidised inexpensive housing will evaporate, since prices of privately-built real estate will rather quickly come down to a reasonable level.
I have to disagree with you there, you have a huge demand for property in China, but it is very segmented, and even with a burst in property prices the lower middle-class and workers from the provinces won't be able to afford most of the vacant property, these appartments are simply too spacious and expensive in the upkeep. Due to poor construction standards my guess is that a lot of these vacant buildings will simply be torn down again, with a big markdown for the speculators.
There is still a massive aggregate demand for cheap housing in China, but due to several reasons in the local investment and property market building them is simply unattractive for the private sector so far, as they make so much more cash with better apts., even if they eventually remain vacant they are still being sold!
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Most of those commodities can be found elsewhere, it's just that Australia has the roads and ports to ship them as well as vast extents of desert where a mine can be built and run with negligible resistance from the local dwellers (whose inhabitats will largely be destroyed in the process). If the prices of commodities will stay high enough long enough, the former advantage could soon be lost.
True, but transportation and extraction cost of these commodities is a big enough factor to allow for a lasting competitive advantage I think, even if more players enter the market. When miners are paid executive salaries my guess would be that they have more than just a first-mover advantage. Sure, supply increases always come with a delay and therefore in the long run commodity price increases might flatten somewhat but I don't see how Australia could lose the edge in that field, especially as they've got pretty good access to major markets. But it's admittedly something I have not looked into in great detail, so I'd be glad to be proven wrong and learn something in the process.
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:48
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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I have to disagree with you there, you have a huge demand for property in China, but it is very segmented, and even with a burst in property prices the lower middle-class and workers from the provinces won't be able to afford most of the vacant property, these appartments are simply too spacious and expensive in the upkeep. Due to poor construction standards my guess is that a lot of these vacant buildings will simply be torn down again, with a big markdown for the speculators.
There is still a massive aggregate demand for cheap housing in China, but due to several reasons in the local investment and property market building them is simply unattractive for the private sector so far, as they make so much more cash with better apts., even if they eventually remain vacant they are still being sold!
.
Actually he might be right. The Chinese have a system for dealing with NPL's, which typically range from 40% to 60% of loans at the end of the lending cycle. Then the government entity in charge of buying these loans basically give the real estate away for 20c on the $. That means you have a $40,000 apartment that cost them $200k to build. The government directs this toward having full occupancy.

Quality is an issue, but so is the loan book.
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Old 30.06.2011, 15:53
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Did you live there? Food is pretty awful, Shanghai has some good international food but the local food isn't, most Chinese would agree too.

And that doesn't even include food safety, availability of fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, etc etc. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...485,full.story
And talking to many, many people there I don't seem to be the only one to think so, check any expat forum, people aren't raving about the local food, too oily and bland. Good food in my opinion is found in Yunnan, Hunan and Szechuan, very rural regions with a spicier, fresher and more varied cuisine. Cantonese food is sweeter and lighter and the most popular in the West, but not my favourite either.Mind you, the city is massive and it's always possible to get decent food, but it pales to any South-east Asian country.
You are entitled to your opinion but don't try to speak for "most Chinese". I'm Chinese and I don't agree. I don't really favor Shanghai food, but to say it's awful is a bit of stretch.
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:03
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Nope never lived there, like I said before- had the offer with plenty of incentives and refused. I assume the offer is always there.

I suppose it depends on how you calculate the average:



http://www.thestar.com/news/world/ar...-rich-and-poor
Here is what Virtual tourist has to say about wearing a mask and pollution in China Beijing etc, Taiwan has improved but still heavily affected by pollution.

http://www.virtualtourist.com/travel...tion-BR-1.html

OK, forget about any website, let me tell you what a mask is for, because I grew up in Northern China and people wear masks for 1/3 of the year in every northern Chinese city, since about 30 years ago, when pollution didn't exist yet - the mask is firstly to stop germs at flu season, and secondly to warm up air when people ride their bicycle. You know, bicycles are different from cars & motor bikes, there is no windscreen - try ride one at -10 Celsius and you'll know why it's essential.

I'm not saying the pollution is not a problem, with such a fast expanding manufacturing industry pollution has been a terrible problem, but the peak has passed and now China spent more money than any other government to fix pollution. My hometown, a heavy industry base, is now almost as clean as when i was 10.
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:04
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

.....................
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:05
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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The entire economy of Australia will collapse in the next 12 months my friend. China is set to implode, iron ore prices will likely collapses and the AUD had daily, weekly, and monthly dmark counts on it.

This is a replay of Australia 1990... Remember? Like when everyone in Double Bay and Balmain wanted their children to learn Japanese? Then Oz went into the biggest recession its ever seen and the government debased the currency. Anytime an Asian country accounts for 30% of Aussie exports it has always signaled the top in the market for Oz. China is now at 30% of exports. Or is it different this time?

India has plenty of Iron Ore in Orissa. They could boost coking coal demand, but it wont cover a China drop in demand.
Do I remember home was 'in the styx' far from Balmain and 1 year of an introduction to the Japanese language at age 13!!!
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:06
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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You are entitled to your opinion but don't try to speak for "most Chinese". I'm Chinese and I don't agree. I don't really favor Shanghai food, but to say it's awful is a bit of stretch.
Perhaps I have an uncultivated Chinese palate, but I was always partial to a bit of wind-dried duck.

With respect to property development, visiting Tehran it was a shock to see the crazy pace of skyscraper building- very fancy marble, heavily ornate ironwork, reflective glass- not as architecturally nice as London buildings but still at least the rate was impressive. Pollution was bad, I wore a mask some days. It has always been bad but now it is compounded by dust storms. The dust storms emanating from Iraq, caused by desert storm etc. razing the land and causing erosion. The problem in a rapidly growing metropolis is how to curtail corruption and pollution. Those Chinese Billionaires don't want to sit in their own stuff.
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:16
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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They might have similar interests in international bodies and matters of foreign policy as well as a general suspicion of the West and Western corporations but otherwise... clearly a strategic rivalry. .


True we don't need an electron mircoscope to access the granularity of the relationships current composition; as the rivalry factor is apparent, but, in decades to come...over the border hand in hand relationships will be far more economical creating a win-win situation that will fly these confident giants higher up above their previous rivalry positions. They already have a bigger holistic view that goes beyond regional.
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Old 30.06.2011, 16:16
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Perhaps I have an uncultivated Chinese palate, but I was always partial to a bit of wind-dried duck.

With respect to property development, visiting Tehran it was a shock to see the crazy pace of skyscraper building- very fancy marble, heavily ornate ironwork, reflective glass- not as architecturally nice as London buildings but still at least the rate was impressive. Pollution was bad, I wore a mask some days. It has always been bad but now it is compounded by dust storms. The dust storms emanating from Iraq, caused by desert storm etc. razing the land and causing erosion. The problem in a rapidly growing metropolis is how to curtail corruption and pollution. Those Chinese Billionaires don't want to sit in their own stuff.
The funny thing is, Tehran has a major shortage of hotel rooms though. China has more 5 star hotels than the ENTIRE world put together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A 3rd world country!? Iran has a great demographic back-drop, while China is elderly...... Id put my money in Iran any day. They have the best performing stock market in USD terms for the last 2 years running.
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