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Old 25.06.2011, 13:38
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China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

Came across some interesting estimates. By 2050, the largest economies will be China, the United States and India – in that order –

The next 6 or 7 will be from today's developing nations, BUT China’s per capita income will be only 37 percent of the US level, and India’s just 11 percent, at market exchange rates.

http://www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/conte...oblems-part-ii

How will the world work like this. You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America, but increasingly powerful militaries and aggregate wealth in the "developing world"...which will have real power in international institutions. hmmm....

I still don't see mass immigration from Western nations to Asia, as the economic incentive for most people is not there, besides specialized business folks. I imagine also the cultural center of gravity will shift a bit, as Westerns selling their cultural narrative will start to increasingly loose appeal to Asian urban elites who are increasingly nationalistic, self-ware, looking for their own stories, and have the money to back them up globally. The Indian and Chinese movie industries will only increase. Hollywood will still be a major player I suspect due to the universality of many movies of many generic urban movies that come out (action, slap-stick comedy, etc).

I don't even want to start speculating about security/military changes, they are coming, as each nation is already trying to carve out a sphere of influence...China in the South and East china Seas...India in the Indian Ocean and the surrounding nations, etc. There are also territorial issues to be resolved between India and China, the question of Pakistan, competition in South East Asia, etc.
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Old 25.06.2011, 20:14
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Came across some interesting estimates. By 2050, the largest economies will be China, the United States and India – in that order –

The next 6 or 7 will be from today's developing nations, BUT China’s per capita income will be only 37 percent of the US level, and India’s just 11 percent, at market exchange rates.

http://www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/conte...oblems-part-ii

How will the world work like this. You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America, but increasingly powerful militaries and aggregate wealth in the "developing world"...which will have real power in international institutions. hmmm....

I still don't see mass immigration from Western nations to Asia, as the economic incentive for most people is not there, besides specialized business folks. I imagine also the cultural center of gravity will shift a bit, as Westerns selling their cultural narrative will start to increasingly loose appeal to Asian urban elites who are increasingly nationalistic, self-ware, looking for their own stories, and have the money to back them up globally. The Indian and Chinese movie industries will only increase. Hollywood will still be a major player I suspect due to the universality of many movies of many generic urban movies that come out (action, slap-stick comedy, etc).

I don't even want to start speculating about security/military changes, they are coming, as each nation is already trying to carve out a sphere of influence...China in the South and East china Seas...India in the Indian Ocean and the surrounding nations, etc. There are also territorial issues to be resolved between India and China, the question of Pakistan, competition in South East Asia, etc.

About "You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America"

From where did you get this comment that implies there are few super rich in India & China?

There are many super rich in India, for example; according to the 2010 Merrill Lynch-Capgemini World Wealth Report, in India, the number of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) with minimum investable assets of $1 million rose to 126,700 by the end of 2009
Even more in China estimated to have 383,000 individuals of high net worth this year, according to China Private Wealth Report 2010 released Tuesday by Forbes China in association with China Construction Bank.
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Old 25.06.2011, 22:35
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

I remember growing up and always hearing about "all the children starving in China." So I find it pretty amazing at what a powerhouse they've become, economically. On the one hand, I find myself thinking "Good for them!," but on the other hand, I guess I do find it a bit frightening because they are rapidly becoming such a huge contributor to the world's energy consumption. I realize, though, that much of this is due to their manufacturing of goods that are exported to the US.

It also worries me that China is buying up so much of the US's debt. But perhaps the fact that the US and China's economies are so inter-dependent now will help safeguard against any really negative repercussions from that (?). I don't know...

Well, economics is certainly (and perhaps obviously) not my forte. But just the other night, I watched a pretty good documentary about much of this, titled "The China Question." It really provided some interesting insight into the growth of China's economy from what I felt was a fairly objective viewpoint:

http://thechinaquestion.com/
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Old 25.06.2011, 22:41
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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About "You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America"

From where did you get this comment that implies there are few super rich in India & China?

There are many super rich in India, for example; according to the 2010 Merrill Lynch-Capgemini World Wealth Report, in India, the number of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) with minimum investable assets of $1 million rose to 126,700 by the end of 2009
Even more in China estimated to have 383,000 individuals of high net worth this year, according to China Private Wealth Report 2010 released Tuesday by Forbes China in association with China Construction Bank.
That's not what I meant...I should have been more clear, I mean "super rich' as in amazingly rich average living standards for Westerns and Japanese (and also I guess Koreans, taiwanese) as compared to most of the world...

On average everyone on this board is quite Rich compared to the average person living in a developed nation. I think we forget that...a trip to some place like Ethiopia (where I was last December) is a good reminder.
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Old 25.06.2011, 22:50
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Came across some interesting estimates. By 2050, the largest economies will be China, the United States and India – in that order –

The next 6 or 7 will be from today's developing nations, BUT China’s per capita income will be only 37 percent of the US level, and India’s just 11 percent, at market exchange rates.

http://www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/conte...oblems-part-ii

How will the world work like this. You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America, but increasingly powerful militaries and aggregate wealth in the "developing world"...which will have real power in international institutions. hmmm....

I still don't see mass immigration from Western nations to Asia, as the economic incentive for most people is not there, besides specialized business folks. I imagine also the cultural center of gravity will shift a bit, as Westerns selling their cultural narrative will start to increasingly loose appeal to Asian urban elites who are increasingly nationalistic, self-ware, looking for their own stories, and have the money to back them up globally. The Indian and Chinese movie industries will only increase. Hollywood will still be a major player I suspect due to the universality of many movies of many generic urban movies that come out (action, slap-stick comedy, etc).

I don't even want to start speculating about security/military changes, they are coming, as each nation is already trying to carve out a sphere of influence...China in the South and East china Seas...India in the Indian Ocean and the surrounding nations, etc. There are also territorial issues to be resolved between India and China, the question of Pakistan, competition in South East Asia, etc.
You already know my stance on the whole China hysteria AGWV. They will grow old before they grow rich.

As far as india goes, its impossible to do business there. Just bringing in $1m worth of roughs takes 3 weeks to process because of graph and paper work. Takes 2 days in Antwerp or SA. Buying a house in India is bullshiitt as well. You spend 18 months bartering (they keep raising the price when you finally agree on their original price) and then they simply take your bid to the bank, use it as a mark to market and borrow against it. My former boss has been trying to buy a beach front hotel in Goa for the last 7 years!!!!! Doesnt matter how much money you throw at these guys. India has more potential than China, but both pale in comparison to the West for atleast the next 30 years. At that depends on how they deal with both countries running out of water in the next decade.....! Good luck to them both.

Some other useful reading.....

http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Powers-...17/ref=lh_ni_t

http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years...9031374&sr=1-1
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Old 25.06.2011, 23:42
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

Isn't it all just this week's version of the Yellow Peril?
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Old 26.06.2011, 00:33
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Isn't it all just this week's version of the Yellow Peril?
Somewhat, but I didn't take the article as a "negative" I took it as a "this is a likely projections..."...I don't necessarily see the rise of other developing nations as negative, but it will just make the world more complex, and my personal choice is that once people have power you often have to force them to give it up....by hook or by crook. For example Europe refuses to give up the IMF top seat, claiming a European is needed because of the "Euro crisis" but somehow during the Asian Crisis in the late 1990's no Asian was needed. LOL The UN security council seats, etc...goes on and on...there will be some violence in the future, but I don't forsea full on total wars, more like limited relative small scale conflicts in certain areas...pissing contests...and that's all natural.

In some ways South Asia and East/Southeast Asia are the same security wise as Europe was 150 years ago (well with greater reliance on an outside stabilizer, the U.S. and less interlocking security treaties).
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Old 26.06.2011, 09:48
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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Came across some interesting estimates. By 2050, the largest economies will be China, the United States and India – in that order –

The next 6 or 7 will be from today's developing nations, BUT China’s per capita income will be only 37 percent of the US level, and India’s just 11 percent, at market exchange rates.

http://www.yaleglobal.yale.edu/conte...oblems-part-ii

How will the world work like this. You will continue to have the super rich in Europe and North America, but increasingly powerful militaries and aggregate wealth in the "developing world"...which will have real power in international institutions. hmmm....

I still don't see mass immigration from Western nations to Asia, as the economic incentive for most people is not there, besides specialized business folks. I imagine also the cultural center of gravity will shift a bit, as Westerns selling their cultural narrative will start to increasingly loose appeal to Asian urban elites who are increasingly nationalistic, self-ware, looking for their own stories, and have the money to back them up globally. The Indian and Chinese movie industries will only increase. Hollywood will still be a major player I suspect due to the universality of many movies of many generic urban movies that come out (action, slap-stick comedy, etc).

I don't even want to start speculating about security/military changes, they are coming, as each nation is already trying to carve out a sphere of influence...China in the South and East china Seas...India in the Indian Ocean and the surrounding nations, etc. There are also territorial issues to be resolved between India and China, the question of Pakistan, competition in South East Asia, etc.
The centre of gravity WILL shift ?? It in fact already HAS shifted.
A) Here in Switzerland, India and China are prime origins of inbound tourism. To the good luck of the inbound tourism (CH money earner nr.2) the Indian and most of the Chinese (both upper and middle class people) understand English.
B) India and China already are prime-markets for the export industry (CH money earner nr.1)
A-2) also Japan, as well as smaller countries from the FarEast like Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, South-Korea "send" lots of tourists, as do Latin American countries like Brazil, Argentina and Chile
B-2) The countries mentioned under A-2) also are good markets for the export industry

And THESE things above of course apply to most of Continental Europe. In case of the U.K. the "exceedingly special relationship" with the USA may result in a slightly different picture.

Last edited by Wollishofener; 26.06.2011 at 09:59.
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Old 26.06.2011, 09:57
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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I remember growing up and always hearing about "all the children starving in China." So I find it pretty amazing at what a powerhouse they've become, economically. On the one hand, I find myself thinking "Good for them!," but on the other hand, I guess I do find it a bit frightening because they are rapidly becoming such a huge contributor to the world's energy consumption. I realize, though, that much of this is due to their manufacturing of goods that are exported to the US.

It also worries me that China is buying up so much of the US's debt. But perhaps the fact that the US and China's economies are so inter-dependent now will help safeguard against any really negative repercussions from that (?). I don't know...

Well, economics is certainly (and perhaps obviously) not my forte. But just the other night, I watched a pretty good documentary about much of this, titled "The China Question." It really provided some interesting insight into the growth of China's economy from what I felt was a fairly objective viewpoint:

http://thechinaquestion.com/

Just to pass news on to you. The last times when children were starving in China were in the 1920ies, 30ies and 40ies In the 60ies, many Chinese got into trouble due to A) "the big leap forward" and B) the "Cultural Revolution". And just to have it mentioned, the Emperor got relieved of his command a century ago

Forecasts showing China to get ahead of India were already made in the 1960ies and were wrong. On one of their meetings, Tshu En Lai and Jawaharlal Nehru discussed the prospects of their nations, TEL using such forecasts for his arguments in favour of Chinese communism, but Nehru replied that he was in favour of a relatively slow but permanent progress, combined with democracy and personal freedom
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Old 26.06.2011, 10:33
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

People are always predicting china and India will take over, and that we will all be underwater because of global warming and the westerners will be in desperate conditions, I think it's all rubbish.

It takes more than economic scaling to make a country. There is the entire countries social development, level of corruption, political stability, religious interference and a host of other factors which determine what kind of business you will run in it. America, the uk and Europe in general will still be very much above the financial waterline in 2050 despite what some financial modeling accountant predicts.
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Old 27.06.2011, 13:33
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

If China is the cats-ass then why are there so many Chinese officials stealing money in order to move to Australia, Canada, and the US??????

Ive been doing business with political figures for more than a decade. But Ive never seen theft on this large of a scale before. $120Bn!!!!!! Simply stunning.... They make Mobutu look like a little-leaguer.


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Old 27.06.2011, 14:06
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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People are always predicting china and India will take over, and that we will all be underwater because of global warming and the westerners will be in desperate conditions, I think it's all rubbish.

It takes more than economic scaling to make a country. There is the entire countries social development, level of corruption, political stability, religious interference and a host of other factors which determine what kind of business you will run in it. America, the uk and Europe in general will still be very much above the financial waterline in 2050 despite what some financial modeling accountant predicts.
exactly. infrastructure is easy to build. a rule of law where people have confidence in is another matter.
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Old 27.06.2011, 14:10
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

Chairman Mao might take exception to this as he engineered the great famine of '58-'62. I think the estimates were 45 million Chinese died of starvation.

fduvall

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Just to pass news on to you. The last times when children were starving in China were in the 1920ies, 30ies and 40ies In the 60ies, many Chinese got into trouble due to A) "the big leap forward" and B) the "Cultural Revolution". And just to have it mentioned, the Emperor got relieved of his command a century ago

Forecasts showing China to get ahead of India were already made in the 1960ies and were wrong. On one of their meetings, Tshu En Lai and Jawaharlal Nehru discussed the prospects of their nations, TEL using such forecasts for his arguments in favour of Chinese communism, but Nehru replied that he was in favour of a relatively slow but permanent progress, combined with democracy and personal freedom
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Old 27.06.2011, 14:52
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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If China is the cats-ass then why are there so many Chinese officials stealing money in order to move to Australia, Canada, and the US??????
Cause and effect! They don't steal money in order to move. They are corrupt in order to have a nice life and only move after they stole too much money and know that staying gets dangerous... Corrupt officials have a tradition in China, even Laozi identified them as a core problem of the state in 600 BC.
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Old 27.06.2011, 15:13
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

I've spent altogether 6 months in India, and it is a fascinating country to know. And the people... I see the major block for their development the amount of corruption, on every single level of existence. You cannot run a business there without bribes, knowing right persons etc. They don't like so much foreign investors there, and I think buing any property is not worth the hassle. But I can understand that they don't want to sell their homeland cheaply to some foreigners. There is a lot of optimism these years there, simply because they still have a huge gap to grow between western world. But in some remote areas, life still didn't change much in past few hundred years.
And my personal observation - indians are not aggressive people. On single human level, but also on nation's level. I don't know their whole history, but what I red, every single conflict was provoked by their neighbour (China taking massive lands in Ladakh/Lahaul&Spiti regions with army, few thousands paki soldiers invading north Ladakh in 1999 etc). If the world would be black & white, then pakis would be definitely black in this scenario. Laska e Taiba terrorist group sponsored by paki goverment (which is indirectly trained by americans!) trying to destabilize kashmir, terrorist attack in Bombai in 2008 etc. Indians didn't do a single act like that on Paki territory. So I don't think they would end up being same type of superpower like China can be. China behaves nice only to appear so in other's eyes.
I don't get the US position there - they are so-so friends with India (but not so much, since they are not buying weapons from them, rather from russia or build their own). And big friends with their arch-enemy Pakistan, who is on some goverment levels supporting al-qaida and other terorrists etc.
Anyway - I think China has bigger superpower potential, because it is not democracy compared to India. They can play bad if the goal is worth it, without any remorse. But I am just a simple traveller anyway
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Old 27.06.2011, 15:28
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

On one side I think that there is no way that China or India can become respected as secure major powers until they have solved the problem of the poor agricultural masses. I suppose the poor masses didn't stop the Brits during the transition from agricultural to industrial revolution. The Brits succeeded through colonialization, which is what the Chinese are doing in Africa.
I recently met of travellers to Africa who argued that the Chinese ( unike the Brits) lay the path to colonialization with providing much needed infrastructure. That surprised me as it is not what I had seen in British documentaries or read in hte international press. I do believe that the British did provide some infrastructure ( transport, healthcare etc.)
Most successful colonial powers provide new technology- what new technology are the Chinese providing? In everything that I have read corruption is rfe among the Chinese;p corruption provides a rotten core and eventual destruction of any civilization if left unchecked.
The Chinese that I meet who have moved abroad to study have no wish to return, although they often leave young children to be raised by grandparents.
Where is the new technology in China? What major technological breakthrough have they provided since Nixon's visit? They can't survive by copying they must innovate.
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Old 27.06.2011, 15:44
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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It takes more than economic scaling to make a country. There is the entire countries social development, level of corruption, political stability, religious interference and a host of other factors which determine what kind of business you will run in it.
I totally agree. China for me is a ticking time bomb and could soon go the Russian way. You cannot oppress 1.3 billion people for a long time. But the ageing Chinese population could do well to fight the PARTY to give an independent future to the small percentage of the young ones.

Coming to my beloved homeland, well the list is really big. But for me the biggest issue there is corruption and overall living standard. The big Indian cities are already seeing a rise in crime. I interpret this as the lower strata of the society trying to get at the snobbish upper middle class. Until the gap between the rich and the poor is managed we also have a ticking time bomb right under our ass.

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America, the uk and Europe in general will still be very much above the financial waterline in 2050 despite what some financial modeling accountant predicts.
We are rather mixing two things here. On scale, I am sure the Chinese and the Indian economy will be bigger and more powerful than the "Developed" economies in another decade. Quality of life for the average citizen is still at least 50 years behind the "Developed" countries.

But hey, India is just 60+ years old. We are a young country and eventually we will come around!
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Old 27.06.2011, 16:01
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

The first sign of real development will be when lots and lots of people will want to migrate to India or China. But I guess that moment will be not any time soon.
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Old 27.06.2011, 16:45
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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The first sign of real development will be when lots and lots of people will want to migrate to India or China. But I guess that moment will be not any time soon.
Depends on who you are talking about. According to China Daily (party mouthpiece) 50% of expats leave China prematurely, at the same time
there are more and more illegal Vietnamese workers in the country, and more visibly, Africans from countries the Chinese do business with (and who happen to have oil or other natural ressources like Nigeria, Liberia etc.)
China is not very attractive to a spoilt Westerner, but for many people from elsewhere is still the promised land. Chinese think that their country offers a lot of opportunities to get rich - just not for them (the normal, educated but unconnected masses).

China is increasingly assertive in its foreign policy, even though most Chinese disagree and think their government should be even more so. China has border conflicts with every single neighbour but North Korea and is rather confrontational about it as of late. After a year in China I can't help but have an uneasy feeling about their economy and society and take these growth projections with more than a pinch of salt.
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Old 27.06.2011, 23:45
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Re: China, India, U.S. and future of global economy

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People are always predicting china and India will take over, and that we will all be underwater because of global warming and the westerners will be in desperate conditions, I think it's all rubbish.

It takes more than economic scaling to make a country. There is the entire countries social development, level of corruption, political stability, religious interference and a host of other factors which determine what kind of business you will run in it. America, the uk and Europe in general will still be very much above the financial waterline in 2050 despite what some financial modeling accountant predicts.
Here in Switzerland, we only can HOPE that China and India get UP as far and as high as possible, as them getting rich will make them prime markets for the Swiss export industry.

The other way round works as well. I already in about 1968 bought a cheap but excellent China-made bostitch which was in use until about 1990 ! and I in places like Dubai learnt to appreciate the products of the Indian consumer industry. In our shop we sell aircraft models produced in China. The adhesive they use is lousy, but generally their products are good

A lot of what you write are in favour of India but NOT in favour of China, exactly as P.J.N. already in the 1950ies saw
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