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  #41  
Old 29.06.2011, 10:21
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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It's a giant mess. And one that reminds me constantly of why I am so happy to be in Switzerland, even with all of the rules. Seriously... I'd rather not flush the toilet after 10pm for the rest of my life than have to live in the US right now. It's that bad.
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It has a lot to do with declining tax revenues on the richest (1%) Americans. I tend to agree with Robert Reich on this.



As for the rest of it, I don't know if people are in denial, I know a lot of people are scared because the middle class seems to be dissappearing. Politicians are pontificating rather than working together - this is a real dissappointment to me. Buch of losers on both sides - but who wants to be a politican? And the uS is spending too much money on defense abroad, leaving not enough money for infrastructure and social programs....
most people do not know what is going on and do not understand the issue...most people are worried with keeping their jobs, paying mortgage and feeding their families. Most unfortunately also are more concerned with what's on TV and the outcome of The Apprentice than protesting in an organized manner. Where are the masses on the streets demanding change? It seems it is possible everywhere even in oppressed ME countries but not in "democratic"' USA?
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  #42  
Old 29.06.2011, 10:25
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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By the way excellent article from the BBC. I read it yesterday and it really got me thinking about the US debt crises, since I currently live in the US. The article touched on some subjects that I think are very important in analyzing the US debt situation.

One issue that the article does leave out are state debt liabilities. Many states (California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey) have extremely high debt liabilities with additional debt to be added on because of entitlements, state pension liabilities and social spending programs (Medicaid) issued by the state that will be incurred in the future. State debt is held separately from federal debt and in some states (New York) the state government has created governmental authorities and municipalities that have the capability of issuing their own debt that is held separately from state debt.

The consequences of paying off the interest of this debt have been increased regulations that trigger more taxes, force smaller businesses out of the state, and decreased budget allocations for educational purposes, heath care and security(police etc). I write interest because many states are constantly refinancing their debt pushing maturity further down the line. In addition, most of the states with higher debt figures suffer from some of the highest unemployment figures (California). While states try to combat high unemployment they are scaring away businesses through high rates of taxation and are instead dolling out increased social welfare program expenditures that keep the unemployed barely above water financially. Obviously this is not a sustainable model of governance.

Politically, within many of the states there are a lot of big promises that are made during each campaign with regard to fixing the budget deficit, but a lot of the ideas get bogged down in political debate that often result in some sort of compromise by both parties that includes a lot of earmarks and does not appropriately address the problem. This has been a problem on the federal level as well. (example Obama extending estate tax cuts in order to gain continued unemployment insurance).

Although the state deficits in each respective state pale in comparison to the overall federal deficit what makes me particularly worried about the state and federal debt situation is how engrained debt has become as part of governmental policy. When politicians and policy makers face a fiscal problem they do not want or know how to deal with they just issue more debt, leaving the future generation on the hook. There is no institution that meaningfully controls how debt is spent in this country.

For a breakdown in who owns US federal debt please see: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29880401/The_..._Debt?slide=16
the states will either get bailed out by the federal govt, or will go bankrupt and reset (leaving many without pensions).
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  #43  
Old 29.06.2011, 10:59
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

I think one aspect hat hasn't been mentioned yet is the currency war in general and that of the US and China in particular. As much as the US is portrayed as a slave to its debt to China and the world, the same holds true for China. China has huge foreign currency reserves but can't use it without appreciating their own currency, yet have to witness the constant depreciation of their savings, endure massive inflation due to their undervalued currency and shrinking export margins, because rising prices don't allow for better salaries. It's like a heads on race into a wall, where neither party gives in first because they know the price of doing so would be too high, and the benefit of the other giving in first too great. If the recent deals China concluded with Germany entices Merkel to push for the full acceptance of China as a market economy I see the beginning of the end of the Doha rounds as the US and other countries will simply pull out as they can't resort to anti-dumping import taxes anymore.

edit: can't be bothered editing the endlessly long sentences, sorry.
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  #44  
Old 29.06.2011, 11:12
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

I am disappointed that the 'revolution' seen in some parts of the world hasn't spread to the US and Europe. Not because I want trouble, purely because the governments are just screwing with us with their policies.

If none of the main political parties are willing to make a stand then we are all screwed. Again the general population is being let down by the politicians.
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Old 29.06.2011, 11:21
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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I think one aspect hat hasn't been mentioned yet is the currency war in general and that of the US and China in particular. As much as the US is portrayed as a slave to its debt to China and the world, the same holds true for China. China has huge foreign currency reserves but can't use it without appreciating their own currency, yet have to witness the constant depreciation of their savings, endure massive inflation due to their undervalued currency and shrinking export margins, because rising prices don't allow for better salaries. It's like a heads on race into a wall, where neither party gives in first because they know the price of doing so would be too high, and the benefit of the other giving in first too great. If the recent deals China concluded with Germany entices Merkel to push for the full acceptance of China as a market economy I see the beginning of the end of the Doha rounds as the US and other countries will simply pull out as they can't resort to anti-dumping import taxes anymore.

edit: can't be bothered editing the endlessly long sentences, sorry.
well, they did try to use them, but were blocked by the US (e.g. Unocal) so their US$ horde ended up being a pretty worthless pile of paper.
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  #46  
Old 29.06.2011, 11:25
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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I am disappointed that the 'revolution' seen in some parts of the world hasn't spread to the US and Europe. Not because I want trouble, purely because the governments are just screwing with us with their policies.

If none of the main political parties are willing to make a stand then we are all screwed. Again the general population is being let down by the politicians.
Personally I don't buy that politicians screwed us/Greek mentality. Everyone profited from it by consuming (jobs, retirement, health care, social sector, infrastructure etc.) more than they paid in taxes. That easy. Americans for decades consumed more than they produced as a country, and spent more than they paid in taxes, and left the bill to be paid for later, knowing that the debt would be worth much less in the future. Same goes for many other countries, it's convenient to blame politicians, but the inredible arrogance and self-centeredness of people going to the streets whenever it hurts them instead of the countries finances leaves politicians no choice but to give in every single time they're facing the electorate. Countries in a better position are only so because their people are more prudent and accept some cuts, not because they invented politicians with more integrity out of thin air.

I know representative democracies are just so much more convenient, you can simply blame everything on your elected leaders without having to make some tough decisions yourself, but come on.. wisen up.
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  #47  
Old 29.06.2011, 11:27
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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well, they did try to use them, but were blocked by the US (e.g. Unocal) so their US$ horde ended up being a pretty worthless pile of paper.
True, what I meant was they can't use it internally without appreciating their currency. Of course they're on a spending spree via their "private" companies but are more often than not blocked out by increasingly vigilant governmental bodies in both the US and EU.
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Old 29.06.2011, 11:50
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

Interesting debate, however, there is one thing that puzzles me as to who is the creditor i.e. the Banks, other governments, IMF (which in part is controlled by the US) or a big loanshark with a team of heavies who could come and break down the US door and shoot some knee caps!!

Hold on!?! Is US not the biggest gun in town so could they simply decide not to pay without the fear of getting wacked?

I mean who would or could literally threaten DON USA
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Old 29.06.2011, 11:57
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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Hold on!?! Is US not the biggest gun in town so could they simply decide not to pay without the fear of getting wacked?

I mean who would or could literally threaten DON USA
The US is the biggest gun in town. Problem is, like with an alcoholic and his local bar, once he openly declares that he's not going to settle his tab, there will be no more beers, neither here nor next place.

Same with Greece, sure, it can just declare bankruptancy, say it won't pay, but then who, pray tell, who will pay for its expenses?
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Old 29.06.2011, 12:53
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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It's maybe easier to balance a budget in a police state where leaders are not accountable to their people and the police can lock up and torture dissidents. The absence of a free press is very convenient for a government that likes to sweep things under the carpet. Many of the Gulf oiligarchies may have a shock coming as they move to proper democracy.
you're mixing economics with politics. Those Gulf countries are ruled by a bunch of oppressive tyrants, yes, but these oppressive tyrants are fiscally responsible apparently...They spend less than they earn, pocket the difference & reinvest it somewhere else. Their subjects are as fiscally responsible as their oppressors.
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Old 29.06.2011, 13:31
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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Interesting debate, however, there is one thing that puzzles me as to who is the creditor i.e. the Banks, other governments, IMF (which in part is controlled by the US) or a big loanshark with a team of heavies who could come and break down the US door and shoot some knee caps!!

Hold on!?! Is US not the biggest gun in town so could they simply decide not to pay without the fear of getting wacked?

I mean who would or could literally threaten DON USA
of course they could show everyone the finger and say bugger off... that would take care of all the existing debt... but what would they live on after that???
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Old 29.06.2011, 13:32
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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of course they could show everyone the finger and say bugger off... that would take care of all the existing debt... but what would they live on after that???
Blame it on the previous government

That normally works as an excuse for selling policy U-turns.
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Old 29.06.2011, 20:50
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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Personally I don't buy that politicians screwed us/Greek mentality. Everyone profited from it by consuming (jobs, retirement, health care, social sector, infrastructure etc.) more than they paid in taxes. That easy. Americans for decades consumed more than they produced as a country, and spent more than they paid in taxes, and left the bill to be paid for later, knowing that the debt would be worth much less in the future. Same goes for many other countries, it's convenient to blame politicians, but the inredible arrogance and self-centeredness of people going to the streets whenever it hurts them instead of the countries finances leaves politicians no choice but to give in every single time they're facing the electorate. Countries in a better position are only so because their people are more prudent and accept some cuts, not because they invented politicians with more integrity out of thin air.

I know representative democracies are just so much more convenient, you can simply blame everything on your elected leaders without having to make some tough decisions yourself, but come on.. wisen up.
I agree to some extent with the argument "people get the government they deserve", however many of the procedural checks and balances of how debt is issued within state and federal government are cut off from any form citizen consent. In NY for example the government historically used to take a vote of the populace before issuing general obligation bonds. However the state government got around that provision by simply creating authorities and municipalities which could issue their own debt and relend it back to the state government. Similarly, the treasuries as issued by the Federal Reserve are not issued on behalf of the populace's consent but instead are controlled largely by the Treasury Dept. and the board of directors at the Federal Reserve.
The Treasury has borrowed against social security, private and public pension funds and mutual funds are heavily tied to treasury allocations. This policy assures that if the US defaults the middle class is going to take it square in the mouth.


And what funds have people in US "enjoyed"? Our infrastructure is falling apart, our school system ranks 17th in the world our health care system ranks last among OECD countries. Outside the cheap entertainment Fox provided on the "War against Terrorism" and flag rallying that existed during the Iraq invasion, people in the US really have not "enjoyed" the funds we have spent "rebuilding" Iraq and Afghanistan. No most people in US have friends or family members who have gone to war and have been negatively affected as a result.

In 2008, congress did not bat an eyelash in issuing 700 billion to Goldman boy Hank Paulson and granting increased rights for the Federal Reserve to control monetary policy so that Ben Bernanke could flood banks with liquid cash on the off chance that banks might relend. And what did that do for Main street? Nothing. Now that Obama has given up hope that there will be a recovery any time soon he is left to playing meaningless statiscal games with our countries unemployment figures. How does the average Joe get any enjoyment from all of this?

Just to the point of who is going to make the US repay its debt in the event of a default; the truth of the matter is that the majority of the federal debt is held by the Federal Reserve itself and US public and private institutions and US states. If the US suffers an actual hit to its credit rating by the S&P foreign bond holders will back out first and domestic holders will be stuck carrying the US defaulted debt.

Last edited by Cbass; 29.06.2011 at 21:36. Reason: typo
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  #54  
Old 30.06.2011, 00:08
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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you're mixing economics with politics. ...
Wouldn't it be nice if we could actually separate economics and politics? It's causing rot in the system. If politics and economics weren't mixed for one thing the US would get the blank out of Afghanistan & Iraq.
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Old 30.06.2011, 00:26
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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And they also need to raise income tax on the rich, stop some of the ridiculous subsidies to big business & plug the loop holes that allows corporations to send their profits overseas and not get taxed.

Mostly they really need to re-haul the system. But as was said way above, politicians are only worried about getting reelected and not fixing anything. There is some serious myopia in the US.
Plus, they need to stop removing the war numbers and a sizable chunk if the defense budget from the numbers that they use when they are discussing the budget when making laws. I find it disturbing that the 2 billion entitlement handed out to the oil companies was put off limits this past month and yet these same oil companies made 142 billion in profits this past term. And these are just a few of the many things that are not reasonable.
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Old 30.06.2011, 02:17
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

One of America's biggest problems is that they think they're still in their glory days. They still believe that they're the greatest country in the world for numerous reasons, they still believe that everyone thinks that way of America too. So they carry on "business as usual." Until America faces the truth of their plight there will be no real changes.
Like a few of you have stated in so many words "where is your revolution America?" Americans are sitting back like all is well. The government could care less and make decisions on a whim. True change will happen " starting from the bottom to the top." Not the other way around. When the people have had enough, then there will be changes.
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Old 30.06.2011, 03:48
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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Is America in denial about the extent of its financial problems, and therefore incapable of dealing with the gravest crisis the country has ever faced?

Denial being a human quality, can one personify a nation ?

Are we at the first of DABDA in the death of the US economy ?
I think the world is in denial at the moment. What economy hasn't "massaged" their numbers recently. Even China is starting to show trouble. Had the boom kept going, they might have been able to cover it longer.

As far as the USA? Well it's interesting to say the least. Corporations have money up the wazoo, but aren't spending it. Republicans claim another tax cut (thus lowering general revenue and putting the country further in the whole) will fix it. Democratic people say stimulus will fix it. Truth be told they're both wrong.

I say if they're going to spend the money it should be on infrastructure. I think the should return to Reagan (1985 or so) tax levels. I think they should fold in duplicating agency functions. I think they should close down the two useless wars eating money.

There's a LOT more, of course, too much for a simple board post.
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Old 30.06.2011, 04:27
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

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I say if they're going to spend the money it should be on infrastructure. I think the should return to Reagan (1985 or so) tax levels. I think they should fold in duplicating agency functions. I think they should close down the two useless wars eating money.

There's a LOT more, of course, too much for a simple board post.
Pre-Reagan tax levels, thank you.

Raise taxes on the richest 1% and stop handing out money to profitable corporations (oil), and dump corporate welfare.

I begin to see small spurts of activism and people talking about it more than they have in a long time. It has to happen from the ground up, and it's going to take a while to build - no good leadership. The "average" person is scared, and the middle class is fractured. But I agree about infrastructure - and it is a source of jobs. Not all unions are good, and many of them became bloated at the top, but collective bargaining does give the middle class power.

Health care fits in there too. But I'm at the end of my insomnia tonight....
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Old 30.06.2011, 08:35
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

What people are in denial about is the ability to repay this mountain of debt. Governments need to do what they can to reduce their borrowing but don't let anybody kid themselves that we "the people" can pay this off by cutting our pensions, paying nurses and teaches less, increasing income tax or putting up VAT. This all helps make sure the problem won't get any bigger but it won't a make a dent in the debt that's there. That's what's laughable about the Greek plan.
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Old 30.06.2011, 21:09
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Re: Is the US in denial over its $14tn debt ?

as some of you opined the US population should revolt in order to at least bring attention to the US deficit. Its not a measure I would agree with but I have some sentiments on this topic.

Although many have stated that americans are merely complacent, from my experience americans fall into two camps: 1) they are too overworked and/or worried about making ends meet and do not have the energy or capacity to care about the debt issue, or 2) they are well-off and see the debt issue as a means of raising taxes which they heavily oppose. Consumer debt in form of credit cards and student loans are still of primary concern to most people.

Also the US does not have the most friendly labor laws, especially when it comes to things like strikes or organized labor, both of which are requisites for a proper demonstration. The right to work doctrine enforced through the states pretty much means that you can get fired at any time for any reason without cause. Feel like risking your job by demonstrating when you know other equally qualified applicants are itching to take your spot should you become inclined to have a cause?

The unions have been active in demonstrating against some of the inadvertent debt issues (unions in Wisconsin demonstrating against the slashing of benefits because of budget cuts). However, their demonstrations were largely unsuccessful.

Given all of these factors a demonstration is not the solution. If both parties in congress could work together on coming up with a balanced budget that would have a bigger impact. It is possible, during the Clinton years we actually had a budget surplus.
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