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  #781  
Old 14.10.2015, 17:06
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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How do you make a statement like that when the definitions for crimes are changing, and political pressures for reporting crimes alter the figures?
Same way you can. Or are you lying?

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Just trying to help. So if you want to use the same set of data, it seems the same dynamics apply within the US itself. In the case of Chicago, tightening restrictions on gun ownership was also accompanied by a rise in crime. I think it is like the UK story. Perhaps correlating the data according to a closer set of data points might prove or disprove the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of gun control.
Plus you try to use multiple (each internally consistant) sources. There's a few measures in the UK, all show pretty much the same thing.


BTW, the issues of under-reporting of crime are concentrated around more minor crimes. We're talking fairly major stuff here where there is anyway much less of an issue.
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  #782  
Old 14.10.2015, 17:26
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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In America, we all know about the Scotch-Irish penchant for fighting. Where do you think John Wayne is from? There was a recent book by a military general about this, and how it influenced US Foreign Policy.

If we were to send them all back, might our rate of violence drop, and we become peace loving?

Perhaps the US should ban the Scotch-Irish instead of guns.
Scottish.

The other one is what causes the Scottish to fight.
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  #783  
Old 14.10.2015, 17:43
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Scottish.

The other one is what causes the Scottish to fight.
What? The Irish?
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  #784  
Old 14.10.2015, 17:45
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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What? The Irish?
Bushmills?
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  #785  
Old 14.10.2015, 17:52
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

Mainly migrants from the Ulster plantation in Northern Ireland. They accounted for 40% of the colonial rebel force against King George III.

Oh, it wasn't a military general, but a Secretary of the Navy who wrote that book:
Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America

Good insight on why "Americans" are the way the are in terms of guns, being hard-nosed, the Bible belt and others. Here you see Patton, Roosevelt, Reagan, John Wayne, etc.

They are referred to as Scotch-Irish or Scots-Irish in the US. I suppose Irish Scotch would be Bushmills.
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Old 14.10.2015, 18:16
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Bushmills?
No I wax.
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  #787  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:26
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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They are referred to as Scotch-Irish or Scots-Irish in the US. I suppose Irish Scotch would be Bushmills.
Yet another thing they get wrong in the US, then. Scots or Scottish. Scotch is the whisky (without the 'e').

Just because Australians call Americans 'Septics', that doesn't make it right, does it?

As for "Irish Scotch"...
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  #788  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:36
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Yet another thing they get wrong in the US, then. Scots or Scottish. Scotch is the whisky (without the 'e').

Just because Australians call Americans 'Septics', that doesn't make it right, does it?

As for "Irish Scotch"...
No, no, we're quite fine and settled with it. Flashlight for torches, soccer for football, etc. Right or wrong is often best determined by its end outcome. Often clumsy but effective.
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  #789  
Old 14.10.2015, 20:50
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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No, no, we're quite fine and settled with it. Flashlight for torches, soccer for football, etc. Right or wrong is often best determined by its end outcome. Often clumsy but effective.
Great, we'll stick with Septics then.
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Old 14.10.2015, 21:35
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Great, we'll stick with Septics then.
I know Australians. I know what they are like, and I know where they come from. Rather rich, that.
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  #791  
Old 14.10.2015, 21:56
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

If you take the population of the USA as 300 million and the violent death rate, by shooting, as 35.5 per million per year, then only 106 people die every year, just from the shooting. Maybe my calculations are wrong, but it seems a small price to pay for having the total freedom enjoyed by the gun lobby.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ted_death_rate
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  #792  
Old 14.10.2015, 22:29
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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If you take the population of the USA as 300 million and the violent death rate, by shooting, as 35.5 per million per year, then only 106 people die every year, just from the shooting. Maybe my calculations are wrong, but it seems a small price to pay for having the total freedom enjoyed by the gun lobby.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ted_death_rate
Your calculations are very wrong.

35.5 x 300 = 10,650
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  #793  
Old 14.10.2015, 23:06
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Your calculations are very wrong.

35.5 x 300 = 10,650
According to this UC Davis study, 64% or approx. 6,816 is through suicide:
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf...-031914-122535

Of the remaining, approx. 600 are by accident. So homicide would be approx. 3,500. So an average of 10 per day?

In comparison, the top 10 leading cause of deaths in the US:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149


Generally, I think suicides, homicides and school shootings are mental health related. Perhaps focusing more on a national mental health awareness programs may yield better results than gun control.
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Last edited by Phos; 14.10.2015 at 23:23.
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  #794  
Old 15.10.2015, 12:17
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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I know Australians. I know what they are like, and I know where they come from. Rather rich, that.
Do you, now? Tell me, where do "Australians" come from?
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  #795  
Old 15.10.2015, 12:31
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Do you, now? Tell me, where do "Australians" come from?


Lets stick to the topic at hand.

So the yearly chances of getting murdered with a gun is something like 1 in 30,000,00.

Winning a million dollar lottery ticket is about 1 in 16,000,000 - for 1 ticket.

Dying in a plane crash is about 1 in 11,000,000 - for 1 flight.

I think some of you out there understand Risk/Cost Assessments. The chances of getting shot are very low. And Gun Control may even increase those chances. Implementation is nearly impossible. And the modifications to the principles of the US would be profound.

This is just political demagoguery. The shootings are media fueled and sensational. The issue is merely used for stoking political sentiments.

Those moist eyes Obama shows after each of these shootings - cynical crocodile tears. He knows there is not valid case for gun control, but why not exploit sympathy while he still can.

So those stupid Americans seem to know something those stupid non-Americans haven't figured out.
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  #796  
Old 15.10.2015, 12:36
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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...national mental health awareness programs...
every single one of the recent shooters was receiving treatment for whatever mental health issues plagued them. the issue is not awareness, it is that "treatment" in the US means little more than prescription of medication with little to no oversight, follow-up or behavioral therapy.

well, that coupled with ease of access to deadly firearms by individuals who should never be permitted anywhere near a deadly firearm.
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Old 15.10.2015, 12:45
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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So the yearly chances of getting murdered with a gun is something like 1 in 30,000,00.

Winning a million dollar lottery ticket is about 1 in 16,000,000 - for 1 ticket.

Dying in a plane crash is about 1 in 11,000,000 - for 1 flight.
Either yet another total maths fail or some very strange use of ,'s and 0's.


On your own numbers before, 3,500 gun murders in a population of ~300m is about 1 in 85,000 per year. Not 1 in 30 million (also not 1 in 30K if that was what you were trying to write)
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  #798  
Old 15.10.2015, 12:46
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Lets stick to the topic at hand.

So the yearly chances of getting murdered with a gun is something like 1 in 30,000,00.

Winning a million dollar lottery ticket is about 1 in 16,000,000 - for 1 ticket.

Dying in a plane crash is about 1 in 11,000,000 - for 1 flight.

I think some of you out there understand Risk/Cost Assessments. The chances of getting shot are very low. And Gun Control may even increase those chances. Implementation is nearly impossible. And the modifications to the principles of the US would be profound.

This is just political demagoguery. The shootings are media fueled and sensational. The issue is merely used for stoking political sentiments.

Those moist eyes Obama shows after each of these shootings - cynical crocodile tears. He knows there is not valid case for gun control, but why not exploit sympathy while he still can.

So those stupid Americans seem to know something those stupid non-Americans haven't figured out.
It would be great if just one stupid American could get his mathematics right.

Firstly, it's disingenuous to exclude suicides -- these are still deaths and many of them would be avoided if the quick and easy option of a gunshot were not available.

But even setting suicides aside, you state that:

Quote:
homicide would be approx. 3,500
per year.

That's 3,500 out of a total population in the US of about 322 million -- I'll even round that population up to 350 million for you.

That's 1 in 100,000.

Doesn't look too good now, compared to your plane crash and lottery winning stats, does it?
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Old 15.10.2015, 12:51
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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I
per year.

That's 3,500 out of a total population in the US of about 322 million -- I'll even round that population up to 350 million for you.

That's 1 in 100,000.

Doesn't look too good now, compared to your plane crash and lottery winning stats, does it?
Ok, per year. About 1 in 30,000,000 per day. Hmm, nobody really flies nor plays lottery everyday.

Still not quite the urgency as gun control advocates make it out to be.
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Old 15.10.2015, 12:55
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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According to this UC Davis study, 64% or approx. 6,816 is through suicide:
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf...-031914-122535

Of the remaining, approx. 600 are by accident. So homicide would be approx. 3,500. So an average of 10 per day?

In comparison, the top 10 leading cause of deaths in the US:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149
Six or seven of the factors you've listed apply in the main to the elderly. Have a look at the leading causes of death for otherwise healthy individuals, e.g. in the age range 21-40.

Don't allow statistics to round you up and lead you meekly wherever you want to be led. Take a moment to give them a little intellectual consideration. Or, as you would put it:

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Sshhhhh..... quiet..... listen...... relax...... don't over-react..... think!
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