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  #801  
Old 15.10.2015, 13:05
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

True. Nevertheless, that roughly illustrate the relevance of cause of death in this topic.

Now for the approx. 3,500 who I mistakenly assumed as homicide. I don't think those are necessarily ALL innocent victims. I suspect many are perpetrators in the act of a crime, or have a relationship with the perpetrator.

So if you discount perpetrators and their relations, you may see innocent victims fall into the hundreds. I'm guessing. I'll see if there are estimated numbers, though I'm sure each dotted "i" will be contested.

In any which way, rather than some misguided and myopic effort to legislate gun control, one would better serve oneself by staying clear out of trouble, and being careful who one associates with.


Yup, I think Gun Control is dead in the US short of a Supreme Court decision. But really though, it isn't the war zone you make it out to be. But that's okay with me if you don't want to go there for a visit.
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  #802  
Old 15.10.2015, 13:18
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

Yes, you are guessing. Even if you confine your analysis exclusively to school shootings, I think you'll find they account for hundreds of innocent gun deaths per year.
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  #803  
Old 15.10.2015, 13:24
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

"Hundreds" sound sensational and alarming, but one website that tracks school shooting victims only counts 15 for this year, and 9 for 2014.

I imagine serial killers do more than that.
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Old 15.10.2015, 14:04
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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"Hundreds" sound sensational and alarming, but one website that tracks school shooting victims only counts 15 for this year, and 9 for 2014.

I imagine serial killers do more than that.
You're right, hundreds is overstating it. Wikipedia lists 28 killings in schools last year (rather more than 9). But nevertheless, I'm very confident that innocent victims of gun crime number in the thousands each year. (The broader issue, though, is that innocent or not, one death by shooting is too many and is preventable.)
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Old 15.10.2015, 14:17
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

Although school shootings happen ALL OVER the world:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_shooting

I'm sure some of those places have stricter gun control than the US. It's not exclusively US phenomenon. The News just draws more attention to US ones. I'm sure one can pick pockets of populations and demographics to show how it is on par with US rates.

If one was serious about concern and sympathy for school shooting victims, then one would look for cause and prevention of that particular issue at that level, which may include beefing up security for schools. But what I heard in this thread is that beefed up security is not desired by (a) gun control advocate, and perhaps school shooting victims serve a purpose for highlighting gun ownership issues.

So is it concern for victims, or just gun control overall?
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Old 15.10.2015, 14:35
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Although school shootings happen ALL OVER the world:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_shooting

I'm sure some of those places have stricter gun control than the US. It's not exclusively US phenomenon. The News just draws more attention to US ones. I'm sure one can pick pockets of populations and demographics to show how it is on par with US rates.
One would have to pick isolated incidents such as the Taliban attack on a school in Pakistan or one of the other terrorist attacks listed in your quoted link to get anything even remotely resembling the litany of fatal school shootings in the US.

Your suggestion that gun control proponents want to see more gun deaths is ludicrous and smacks of desperation on the part of someone who is all out of intelligent arguments.
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  #807  
Old 15.10.2015, 14:47
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

You use the word "only" like it really is something insignificant, rather than kids killed at school. Only should never be used in relation to this subject.

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"Hundreds" sound sensational and alarming, but one website that tracks school shooting victims only counts 15 for this year, and 9 for 2014.

I imagine serial killers do more than that.
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  #808  
Old 15.10.2015, 17:43
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

What I see is that gun control proponents do not even know the effects of what they are advocating. They know not whether it would increase or decrease violent crimes. They have a "gut feel" which they believe to be a slam dunk, that more gun ownership means more violent. But that is not proven to be true.

I can understand the desire for less gun violence. Even those who advocate gun rights also want less violence. But gun rights proponents have rational proof and evidence. Yet gun control advocates don't, they only have sentiments. Furthermore, they use tragedies to foment the sentiment instead of arguable proofs. They use hysteria.

The problem with using hysteria is that it discredits what you are advocating for. If you are advocating for less victims, that is a pity. But maybe they are not, and they are simply advocating for less guns for the sake of it. But if it is politics for the sake of politics, it has rightfully reached its dead end.

I think anyone serious about the issue would look for a smarter approach that is based on an objective reality nobody can deny. This approach of insinuations, incriminations, demonization and polarization doesn't work. Fortunately, people are still smarter than that. Try again.

If these are the kinds of arguments the NRA comes up against, I can now understand why they hold fast the way they do.
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Old 15.10.2015, 17:48
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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What I see is that gun control proponents do not even know the effects of what they are advocating. They know not whether it would increase or decrease violent crimes. They have a "gut feel" which they believe to be a slam dunk, that more gun ownership means more violent. But that is not proven to be true.

I can understand the desire for less gun violence. Even those who advocate gun rights also want less violence. But gun rights proponents have rational proof and evidence. Yet gun control advocates don't, they only have sentiments. Furthermore, they use tragedies to foment the sentiment instead of arguable proofs. They use hysteria.

The problem with using hysteria is that it discredits what you are advocating for. If you are advocating for less victims, that is a pity. But maybe they are not, and they are simply advocating for less guns for the sake of it. But if it is politics for the sake of politics, it has rightfully reached its dead end.

I think anyone serious about the issue would look for a smarter approach that is based on an objective reality nobody can deny. This approach of insinuations, incriminations, demonization and polarization doesn't work. Fortunately, people are still smarter than that. Try again.

If these are the kinds of arguments the NRA comes up against, I can now understand why they hold fast the way they do.
Throughout this thread it is you who have singularly failed to provide any remotely credible facts in favour of your arguements.


Now please go back and re-read the posts on the Australian experience. Cause and effect. Or look again at the difference in murder rates between Western Europe and the US.


Except you won't. Cos facts have never been your strong point where guns are concerned.
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Old 15.10.2015, 17:52
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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They have a "gut feel" which they believe to be a slam dunk, that , that more gun ownership means more violent. But that is not proven to be true.
No-one said that. We did say that (in the developed world) more guns = more deaths which is not the same and is unarguable. Correlation and causality.
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Old 15.10.2015, 18:51
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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According to this UC Davis study, 64% or approx. 6,816 is through suicide:
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf...-031914-122535

Of the remaining, approx. 600 are by accident. So homicide would be approx. 3,500. So an average of 10 per day?

In comparison, the top 10 leading cause of deaths in the US:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
Heart disease: 611,105
Cancer: 584,881
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 149,205
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 130,557
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,978
Alzheimer's disease: 84,767
Diabetes: 75,578
Influenza and Pneumonia: 56,979
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 47,112
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 41,149


Generally, I think suicides, homicides and school shootings are mental health related. Perhaps focusing more on a national mental health awareness programs may yield better results than gun control.
I didn't follow you two in detail, but I think sombody is using percentages on the wrong number. Total US gun deaths are 32-33k annually, whereof 20-20k are suicides and 12-13k are homicides. That gives 3-4 homicides per 100k each year or about 36 homicides per million.

According to this site the average years lost by early death by gun victims is around 44yrs per death. With life expectancy at 78yrs the average gun victim dies at age 34.

Most deaths by disease occur at old age. At a much younger age the numbers look vastly different, may even pale in comparison to gun deaths. If somebody knows what he's doing (seems to not apply to Phos and numbers) it would be highly disengenious to compare gun deaths with "ordinary" deaths without adjusting for age.
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Old 16.10.2015, 03:49
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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... it would be highly disengenious to compare gun deaths with "ordinary" deaths without adjusting for age.
Precisely. I didn't want to use terms such as "adjusting for age" for fear of confusing Phos, who demonstrably doesn't cope well with science.
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Six or seven of the factors you've listed apply in the main to the elderly. Have a look at the leading causes of death for otherwise healthy individuals, e.g. in the age range 21-40.
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  #813  
Old 16.10.2015, 12:29
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

I was working off of numbers Sbrinz posted, and rounding off. Those were wrong, there is an average 30 homicides per day. Anyway, the odds of getting killed by a gun in the US is still somewhere like 1 in 10,000,000 in a day. This is about the odds of dying in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000). And you have better odds of winning a lottery by playing twice (1 in 8,000,000).

Now, I know the Autralian gun laws and its effects are not conclusive, as Australia did not have a high murder rate to begin with. It is said to prevent mass shootings, yet you still had the Sydney hostage standoff last year, and a boy went on a rampaged last month. The Australia example is as relevant to the US as the Switzerland example. And no, they will not be banning private gun ownership in the US, so that is a reality to face up to.

Implementing a fantasy gun ban in the US will likely get more people killed. It would leave people defenceless.

But in your reality hundreds of students die in school shootings every year. :roll eyes: Quite accurate and scientific, eh? More like hysteria.
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Old 16.10.2015, 12:42
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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Implementing a fantasy gun ban in the US will likely get more people killed. It would leave people defenceless.
So for the nth time, how about producing some FACTS to substantiate this?


And explain how come all us defenceless Brits, Swiss, Aussies etc. don't get killed in high numbers.
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Old 16.10.2015, 12:47
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

Both sides will be happy with this

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Old 16.10.2015, 12:56
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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So for the nth time, how about producing some FACTS to substantiate this?


And explain how come all us defenceless Brits, Swiss, Aussies etc. don't get killed in high numbers.
For the nth time, it is reported in so many places, and as already posted. Not only by theory and statistics, but factual results: Where guns are restricted, crime rates rise. Where guns are legally allowed, crime rates drop:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...n-pe/?page=all
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...e391_blog.html
http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/...nter-Final.pdf
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybel...control-lobby/
http://www.cato.org/publications/com...yths-realities
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Old 16.10.2015, 13:15
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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I was working of off numbers Sbrinz post, and rounding off. Those were wrong, there is an average 30 homicides per day. Anyway, the odds of getting killed by a gun in the US is still somewhere like 1 in 10,000,000 in a day. This is about the odds of dying in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000). And you have better odds of winning a lottery by playing twice (1 in 8,000,000).

Now, I know the Autralian gun laws and its effects are not conclusive, as Australia did not have a high murder rate to begin with. It is said to prevent mass shootings, yet you still had the Sydney hostage standoff last year, and a boy went on a rampaged last month. The Australia example is as relevant to the US as the Switzerland example. And no, they will not be banning private gun ownership in the US, so that is a reality to face up to.

Implementing a fantasy gun ban in the US will likely get more people killed. It would leave people defenceless.

But in your reality hundreds of students die in school shootings every year. :roll eyes: Quite accurate and scientific, eh? More like hysteria.
I believe I retracted and corrected the statement about the numbers killed in school shootings. One might even say I amended my statement, somewhat like the way a constitution -- or even an amendment to a constitution -- can be amended. No need to roll your eyes, although I do know that you love to engage in histrionics.

Note also that guns are not the only means of defence. There are plenty of other ways to defend oneself (with avoidance of the need to fight being foremost among them). A gun is not required for the vast majority of situations (rare as they are) -- mostly one-on-one -- where defence may be called for; there's no need to use a weapon capable of killing dozens of people when you need to defend yourself against just one or two people. And why do you need to be able to kill to defend yourself? How about exchanging all those self-defence guns for Tazers?

But didn't you tell us that guns are needed so you can rise up at will against your corrupt, overbearing government? As illustrated, a pistol and a rifle won't get you very far ("you're bringing a gun to a dronefight").

Yes, the Australian gun ban is said to have reduced mass shootings. And so it has. The two incidents you have quoted -- and you will be very hard-pressed to find many more, and none of any substantial size in terms of number of deaths -- both involved Islamic terrorists (rather inept, but with terrorism as their aim) and no mass deaths (according to the generally accepted US definition). Your "rampage" was a boy with radical Islamic beliefs who carefully selected a single target. So... yes, the Australian gun laws have proven benefits. But I know you'll ignore these facts (which have been stated already many times in this thread), as they don't align with what you'd really like to believe.

And lastly, your wonderful interpretation of statistics. I haven't bothered to check whether any of the odds you've quoted are correct -- given your track record, probably not -- but assuming your figure of 30 homicides per day is right, and your other quoted odds are correct, you're now setting "the odds of being murdered" (a passive concept) against "the odds of dying in a plane crash" or "the odds of winning the lottery". To get murdered, all you have to do is exist, each day-- just be there.

For the latter two instances, you need to actively do something: board a flight or buy a lottery ticket. Those things occur rarely; most people take a flight maybe twice year, on vacation. Let's be really generous and say they fly once a month, that's 24 flights a year. You say that 30 Americans are murdered every day. Given your odds, even if EVERY American took two flights per month, then you would expect 2 to die per day in a plane crash. So it looks to me like -- newsflash! -- America has a firearms problem.

To solve that problem, Americans could argue incessantly about nuances related to their Constitution, or they could bite the bullet (pun very much intended) and actually DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
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Old 16.10.2015, 13:37
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

Not sure about the "Where guns are restricted, crime rates rise" thing, but if you look at situations where kids and toddlers shoot themselves or someone else, restricting access to guns or bullets appears to save lives.
Every week in the US a toddler shoots a person
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Old 16.10.2015, 13:53
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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.... you're now setting "the odds of being murdered" (a passive concept) against "the odds of dying in a plane crash" or "the odds of winning the lottery". To get murdered, all you have to do is exist, each day-- just be there.
.....
You say that 30 Americans are murdered every day. Given your odds, even if EVERY American took two flights per month, then you would expect 2 to die per day in a plane crash. So it looks to me like -- newsflash! -- America has a firearms problem.
.
This is an example of hysterics and the mental lapse taken by your arguments. Murder is crime. Homicide is NOT necessarily a crime. Homicide conducted in the course of self defense or law enforcement is NOT murder. A large majority of people killed by gunfire are those in the act of trying to kill someone else. While that is homicide and reflected in homicide statistics, that is NOT murder. In fact, also reflects on the effectiveness of guns.

And you are very accurate, are you?
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Old 16.10.2015, 14:20
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Re: A shooting just happened in ( *fill in the blank * )

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This is an example of hysterics and the mental lapse taken by your arguments. Murder is crime. Homicide is NOT necessarily a crime. Homicide conducted in the course of self defense or law enforcement is NOT murder. A large majority of people killed by gunfire are those in the act of trying to kill someone else. While that is homicide and reflected in homicide statistics, that is NOT murder. In fact, also reflects on the effectiveness of guns.

And you are very accurate, are you?
Absolute garbage, Phos. The number of "justifiable homicides" committed each year is a tiny portion of the whole. I'm sure you can find the numbers for me.

Even policemen are routinely charged with murder when they kill suspects -- even proven criminals -- unnecessarily. And any person who kills others "in the act of trying to kill someone else" is legally committing murder.

Apart from the fact that you're wrong, again, you're trying -- and failing -- to use semantics to detract from the fact that you just don't have an argument in this debate.

Look again at all the facts that people here have so kindly provided. Look at the statistical evidence. Look at the correlations. Look at the proof of cause and effect. Leave aside your own prejudices and step outside your narrow focus of thinking. Then make a judgment.

Guns kill. Where there are no guns, guns can't kill.
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