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  #281  
Old 22.07.2014, 23:33
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Erdogan wants to be nice to the Turkish Kurds, in order to prevent them from getting into an alliance with the Iraqi Kurds. In the meantime, President Talabani, Iraqi State President and influential Kurdish leader has returned to Iraq. Difficult to tell what he can and wants to do
He also needs the Kurdish votes to be President with a good majority.
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  #282  
Old 22.07.2014, 23:41
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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He also needs the Kurdish votes to be President with a good majority.
Well, Mr Talabani IS Iraqi State President, but YES, Erdogan wants to get Kurdish votes to become State President of Turkey. And he wants to be State President in the ways of Mustafa Kemal and Ismet Pasha and General Gürsel

---

AND indeed, for all this he will need the support of the armed forces. He will/would not be the first Turkish leader to do something military to get this support.
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  #283  
Old 12.08.2014, 02:01
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Well not surprisingly Erdogan won the President vote but with 51.8% which was lower than I expected.

Both the Turkish lire and the stock exchange fell after the announcement.

To achieve his Presidential ambitions he needs to have a prime minister appointed who is willing to give up some authority.
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  #284  
Old 12.08.2014, 11:06
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Re: Turkish Spring?

A rift seems to be building up rapidly between Tayyip and Gul, the incumbent president. Tayyip needs a loyal and obedient prime minister to realize his plans for becoming the almighty president To that end he needs to change the constitution and get more powers to the presidency which as it stands is mostly a symbolic position

Gul, being among the founder-members of Akp, is not seen to be too obedient by many critics; I tend to disagree since as a president he signed all new law proposals brought forward by Tayyip -even to the extend that he confirmed his approval before seeing the actual proposal (internet bans). Maybe the fear is that once he gets the Prime Minister role, he would have his own agenda.

Yesterday, Gul announced that he intends to continue his political career and it's only natural to do this with AKP. Tayyip supporters within AKP were quick to criticize the decision (Samil Tayyar calling it 'not elegant'). AKP new prime minister will be announced at party committee meeting on 27th August i.e., one day earlier than Gul's end of term, technically blocking his nomination. Rumours are that he might step down earlier to overcome this.

Lira and other Turkish assets rallied yesterday morning; which was stupid given that President election was a done deal. It came back down following that realization and fear of losing the current economy ministers; like Babacan who is scheduled to leave his post soon
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  #285  
Old 12.08.2014, 11:35
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Technically as President, Erdogan must resign from the AKP. This likely will complicate the relationship.

About "to realize his plans for becoming the almighty president. To that end he needs to change the constitution".
To achieve these changes requires two-thirds majority (67%) in Parliament to immediately implement the changes. Unlikely that the AKP will get so many seats in the next election and then which other parties will support Erdogan?

However, a majority of votes is sufficient to present any proposed amendments to the electorate in a referendum. Is a simple majority enough or do they need to reach a certain level e.g. 60%?
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  #286  
Old 12.08.2014, 11:45
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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...
...

To achieve these changes requires two-thirds majority (67%) in Parliament to immediately implement the changes. Unlikely that the AKP will get so many seats in the next election and then which other parties will support Erdogan?

However, a majority of votes is sufficient to present any proposed amendments to the electorate in a referendum. Is a simple majority enough or do they need to reach a certain level e.g. 60%?
You are right, he needs 367 mps to support the changes.
For referendum a simple majority is enough- I believe. Last time they got 361 votes when deciding to elect the president on public vote
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  #287  
Old 12.08.2014, 12:19
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Re: Turkish Spring?

German coalition partner (CSU) spokesman making harsh remarks against Turkey's EU talks:
CSU, not really a favorite of Turkey's accession talks, believes that other parties should also see the doom of the accession process and officially stop it.

I also believe Turkey cannot / does not want to join EU. It will be seen as anti-Turkey (Erdogan) rhetoric in Turkey but it is only fair to play with open cards. Both sides played the EU-accession process to achieve their own goals.
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  #288  
Old 12.08.2014, 13:08
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Sorry with bombarding the thread with news article excerpts but this is important:
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Yigit Bulut will remain part of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s staff after he is sworn in as president, HaberTurk reports.
The new president will be spared of future telekinesis attacks thanks to his cautious advertisor
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  #289  
Old 22.08.2014, 02:06
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Quote "Turkish president-elect Tayyip Erdogan nominated Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as the next leader of the ruling AK Party and his future prime minister on Thursday."

Seems this is all sliding down an Erdogan planned path, turning Turkey into a President led country!!
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  #290  
Old 22.08.2014, 08:52
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Quote "Turkish president-elect Tayyip Erdogan nominated Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as the next leader of the ruling AK Party and his future prime minister on Thursday."

Seems this is all sliding down an Erdogan planned path, turning Turkey into a President led country!!
Davutoglu was not a successful foreign minister so some of his other qualities must have prompted Erdogan to announce him as his follower
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  #291  
Old 22.08.2014, 09:17
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Davutoglu was not a successful foreign minister so some of his other qualities must have prompted Erdogan to announce him as his follower
Yes, he is his puppet.
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  #292  
Old 22.08.2014, 13:30
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Good short summary about him and Turkey's recent foreign policy by Bloomberg:
Erdogan taps Foreign Policy Guru as Successor for Turkey Battles
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  #293  
Old 22.08.2014, 17:54
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Well not surprisingly Erdogan won the President vote but with 51.8% which was lower than I expected.

Both the Turkish lire and the stock exchange fell after the announcement.

To achieve his Presidential ambitions he needs to have a prime minister appointed who is willing to give up some authority.

An incumbent rarely gets a high vote, people just assume that he will be reinstated. So what happened to the revolution? And looks like he has enough family and friends to fill a cabinet. Actually I think that he was fairly elected; Istanbul is prospering. Yes he has a firm (ouch!) hand US and Europe may not like him but that's tough.
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  #294  
Old 23.08.2014, 13:59
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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An incumbent rarely gets a high vote, people just assume that he will be reinstated. So what happened to the revolution? And looks like he has enough family and friends to fill a cabinet. Actually I think that he was fairly elected; Istanbul is prospering. Yes he has a firm (ouch!) hand US and Europe may not like him but that's tough.

About "Istanbul is prospering".
  • Erdogan started very well but now things are starting to look not so good. The Lire is around 20% down in a year against major currencies (so those businesses who borrowed abroad are looking at huge losses) and several credit risk agencies now have negative outlooks on Turkey.
  • He is having a major conflict with Fetullah Gulen and it looks like another conflict could be starting with Abdullah Gül with the risk of splitting the AKP.
  • Trying to answer the corruption charges by firing thousands of police and prosecutors is not a good way to get foreign investors.
  • Now As Moscow banned food imports from the West, Turkey voiced its readiness to increase its exports of agricultural products to Russia, Turkish economy minister has said “Turkey is a major supplier of food and agricultural produce to Russia. It is ready to increase its food exports to Russia if necessary"
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  #295  
Old 11.09.2014, 01:01
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Re: Turkish Spring?

From today's papers; "Turkey's economy grew less than expected in the second quarter, helping send the lira to its lowest in more than five months and prompting the finance minister to warn that a four-percent full-year growth target may be missed."

Erdogan will have to do some fancy dancing to keep Turkey prospering, his pressure to cut interest rates will not help; looks like inflation will be over 8% this year.
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  #296  
Old 11.09.2014, 02:09
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Well not surprisingly Erdogan won the President vote but with 51.8% which was lower than I expected.

Both the Turkish lire and the stock exchange fell after the announcement.

To achieve his Presidential ambitions he needs to have a prime minister appointed who is willing to give up some authority.

The new Prime Minister IS willing to give up most of the authority in question
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  #297  
Old 11.09.2014, 12:20
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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From today's papers; "Turkey's economy grew less than expected in the second quarter, helping send the lira to its lowest in more than five months and prompting the finance minister to warn that a four-percent full-year growth target may be missed."

Erdogan will have to do some fancy dancing to keep Turkey prospering, his pressure to cut interest rates will not help; looks like inflation will be over 8% this year.
This will just give more ammunition to the "Lower Interest Rates" lobby among the ministers and presidential advisers; the attacks on the Central Bank (CBT) will increase. CBT, though has a formal inflation target, has been missing it repeatedly last few years as the government's ambition is to pursue high growth particularly through the interest rate sensitive construction sector; public and private. Government needs high growth to keep up its economic success saga and popularity.

Turkey, like many other emerging markets, has been riding the ample liquidity wave among the major economies.. Looking ahead with EU rates at minus, ECB determined to pump in even more liquidity, and Draghi promising to keep this stance for quite some time, Turkey might just get lucky with inflation as well
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  #298  
Old 13.10.2014, 00:20
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Re: Turkish Spring?

Seems Erdogan has locked up three German journalist from FAZ, nobody knows why yet! Of course Turkey has jailed almost so many journalists as Iran so maybe they do not need reasons.
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  #299  
Old 13.10.2014, 04:53
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Re: Turkish Spring?

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Seems Erdogan has locked up three German journalist from FAZ, nobody knows why yet! Of course Turkey has jailed almost so many journalists as Iran so maybe they do not need reasons.

reasons ?


espionnage
anti-government conspiracies
anti Turkish acticities



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Old 14.10.2014, 13:47
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Re: Turkish Spring?

According to some newspapers today Turkey's air force started bombing Kurds in Turkey today!

If it is true Turkey will give the US access to their bases then we could have the strange situation that the US are bombing Syria to protect Kurds while the Turks are using the same base to bomb Kurds in Turkey?

I guess this is the end of the peace process with Turkish Kurds.
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