Its seemingly small details like that which can be most telling.

Israel has started evacuated diplomatic families from Kiev.

I`d say time for a non military solution is getting very short.

By now, I cannot see an outcome without at least an invasion of Eastern Ukraine. Vova needs to keep face and Lavrov has doubled down that all the West has offered is "excuses".

Or use the bidet.

Tom

Well, go on making jokes.

Many of us, with chidren, grandchildren and parents living a long way from here- and in regions which are likely to be strongly affected if it all kicks off, just don't find the situation funny ... at all.

It IS a joke.

Tome

So far it's been a phoney war of 'jaw, jaw' & politicians queuing up to do their churchillian speeches
& round trips to Kyiv & Moscow, hopefully it remains that way.

Hopefully

both BBC News and ITV have mentionned several times that an imminent invasion of Ukraine is likely any day now. So,, hopefully.

But as a mum and a gran- with my loved one a long way away- I find this all very very upsetting.

Laugh, Tom, laugh at me, if it makes you feel big and better. FO!

You have family in Ukraine/Russia?

Tom

I suppose she meant those who do have, and believe it or not there are people on EF who have families in Ukraine....or Russia.

People can still joke on this issue....for the moment.

One is too many, surely.

I also tend to believe that there's too much troops just for a show-off and the stakes have been raised quite high by the Russians themselves to just sit idly there.

HOWEVER

If you look at practically all conflicts Russia has been in, with neighbors and in the middle east, it was never a full blown invasion, but rather calculated, tactical incursions. This is why I believe the maximum they will do this time is an incursion in Donbas. Having said that, the more I think about it, this also doesn't make much sense as Russia also has a significant amount of pro-Russian separatists there which it supports and provides equipment to. Invading Donbas doesn't really provide any additional political or military leverage.

MAYBE the objective of Putin is already achieved? Maybe his point is to further weaken Ukraine (done) and stress to NATO that Ukraine as a NATO member will bring only trouble (done).

I doubt this. Allowing Ukraine into NATO has been off the cards since 2014.

My point is that from a cost-benefit approach, his cost of keeping the pressure on Ukraine is lower than the cost to Ukraine itself and as long as that calculus is true, there's probably no reason to change the approach.

In the end, this is what he wants - everyone guessing what's his true intent and next move. I just start to see the possibility that he won't invade.

So will you merge them, or are you just making smart comments?

No need to be snarky. It was serious. And I thought I might have a coffee first. Sorry I wasn't quick enough for you. Threads merged.

You had a drink tonight Tom...e !!!!!

No, this morning.

Tom

Remember Col. Vindman? He published a piece in Foreign Affairs on possible scenarios and responses. Quite a long read and one might not agree, but I found it interesting.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...russia-attacks

And NZZ on how Russian media portrays this (in German, and might be paywall). In a nutshell, not surprisingly the story is spun that the West has pumped up Ukraine with weapons, intoxicated the Ukrainians with anti-Russia ideology and is pushing Ukraine into attacking Russia/Russians.

Who would have thought?

https://www.nzz.ch/international/rus...ikt-ld.1668921

Straw in the wind?

"Putin's superyacht abruptly left Germany amid sanction warnings over Russia-Ukraine tensions, report says. Vladimir Putin's yacht Graceful left Hamburg before finishing repairs, German media reported."

There will only be sanctions if Russia does attack Ukraine.