No comment. Take it as it is. FYI
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...er-problem-for

Yes I reckon that the most likely aggresive scenario ( low fallout option ) is that Russia annexes the Donbas
& Luhansk just like they did the Crimea which will no doubt face no protests from the pro-Russian separatists.

"...his fear that Turkey could join with Ukraine in a military alliance..."

I think the General is having some ridiculous bad dreams. Turkey - Ukraine alliance is an absolute non-sense. Turkey supported Azerbaidjan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as there were cultural, ethnic, religious and political reasons behind. Turkey and Ukraine have practically nothing in common (makes no strategic sense) and Turkey has no tactical reason to support Ukraine vs. Russia as 1) it will be betting on a losing horse with absolutely no upside 2) it will be dragging in NATO, something which neither NATO, nor Turkey will do as the calculus simply doesn't add up.

Just yesterday I was half way in the guts of a patchpanel trying to follow a bunch of cat6´s in the room they were talking about their holidays for this year.
One wanted to go to Turkey, another was talking maybe Greece or Macedonia.
And I am thinking....: "Maybe not!"

No I did not. I am talking about anyone separated from family if things kick off. And of course all those with family in Easter Europe.

And if they start playing cow-boys and indians with nuclear arms- doesn't really matter where you or your family lives. Including so called 'neutral' Switzerland, pig in the middle as usual.

Apart from the fact that there's not much to do in North Macedonia, I don't see how a potential Ukraine - Russia conflict would impact the holidays in Turkey, Greece or N.Macedonia. It didn't happen during the Crimea crisis, it didn't happen with Nagorno-Karabakh, it didn't happen with Georgia, so really not much reason to be worried about summer holidays now either.

Well, first of all, Ukraine has no nuclear weapons, probably their biggest historical mistake was giving them up based on the Budapest memorandum. And second, bombing your neighbor with nukes is obviously a suicidal mission, something Russia won't do. Nukes are for the Americans and the Chinese, not for the Ukrainians

The UK (where my family lives) is getting seriously involved. Here are movements at just one of the air bases

Thursday 10th February 2022
4 nuclear capable B52s arrived at USAF Fairford - see what else departed and arrived today - ominous signs people......
UPDATED 15:20
Departures
Departed 06:58 80-10?? U2S BLACK01 U.S. Air Force
Departed 10:36 85-0001 C5M RCH436 U.S. Air Force
Departed 10:43 68-10329 U2S DRAGON21 U.S. Air Force
Arrivals
Arrived 06:51 85-0001 C5M RCH436 U.S. Air Force
Arrived 11:30 61-0039 B52H HATE14 U.S. Air Force
Arrived 14:05 60-0044 B52H HATE13 U.S. Air Force
Arrived 14:56 61-0018 B52H HATE12 U.S. Air Force
Arrived 15:15 61-0003 B52H HATE11 U.S. Air Force

Sorry, but this is fear-mongering. You can be absolutely certain that these US B52s were NOT carrying nukes

I was just going to write about the B52´s myself... How can you be certain for one and they may not be carrying nukes right now, the nukes are already there waiting to be loaded and remember the B52 has a formidable weapons load without nukes.

The chances of a local Ukraine vrs. Russia deathmatch conflict spilling over into a wider European conflict is immense, I don´t think it could blaze up to a global 1980ties style war. But Europe could be devastated, if not by bullets and bombs perhaps economically with civil disruption and a disunited Europe, with all the tension of the turn of the (last) century European politics.

__________________
Back in Bavaria, god´s own belly button.

I am 100% certain as 1) it makes absolutely no sense to transport nukes across the Atlantic when the UK is a nuclear power itself 2) the US bringing nukes in the eve of the Ukraine crisis brutally and stupidly ups the game in the conflict and provides Russia a path for further escalation with a solid rationale behind "see, they are now threatening us with nukes!". Moreover, the US has enough nukes in another couple of countries in Europe which are logistically better if the need arises. Which it wont.

It's also feasible that some anti-Russian sentiment arises. People with some business or family links to Russia might be affected. I wouldn't want to be in the shoes of someone that signed a contract with Russian customers a few weeks ago or some Russian individual working to the west of St. Petersburg. People should not judge other people based on citizenship but...that's the world we live in

Rational is not what I think when I contemplate the military mind, but you are correct they are not armed, and I remember reading that the B52 is no longer regarded as a prime carrier for nuclear weapons.
But it´s a moot point as by now something has to break and somebody has to blink. There is no backing down from this.

Those who are willing to consider Russia's perspective may find this vid by Sahra Wagenknecht informative. She's a left German politician from the former GDR who co-chaired Die Linke (The Left) for four years roughly during the Trump years. Unfortunately the generated subs aren't that precise as she mumbles occasionally.

TLDR: She says, plausibly IMHO, that this the consequence of keeping Russia at a distance and Nato's continuous eastern expansion. Ukraine becoming an EU and Nato member is seen as an existential threat by Russia tantamount to Russia allying with Mexico or Canada would be one for the USA.

There's no bargaining, or give-and-take, in such instances.

No, the 'nukes' are in the UK- ready to load up. Which puts the UK at particular high risk, and the whole of Europe with it. This would be a war where Swiss Neutrality would mean very little!

Those of us who are a bit longer in the tooth have always known that MAD would only protect us until mad men/psychopaths get involved.

Laugh, mock, none of it matters to me.

This is what I have been saying all along. Without an aggressive NAto expansion and the continued policy of viewing Russia as an enemy we would not be at the brink right now.

Reportedly the last US nukes have been withdrawn in 2006 from the UK. So where's your proof, or at the least rumors from a credible source?

The US have rather stringent requirements for the stationing of their nukes, starting with appropriate shelters and troops to keep them out of unauthorised hands. This, for instance, must have been a massive concern a few years ago when Turkey locked in the US troops at Incirlic where the US are said to have (have had, most likely by now) nukes stationed.
Humor can be an excellent valve to release stress. Feel free to ignore the jokes, different tastes and all that. It's called tolerance.

They are now most likely in Poland, and we ask why Russia wants guarantees.

No, the US doesn't have nukes in Poland. Only "western" countries and Turkey have US nukes and this does not include the UK.

I guess this is part of Putin's plan - fall into fearmongering and uncertainty, in a way, he has already achieved his goal.

And you're such an expert and able to confirm that the delivery payload system of the B52 is plug and play with the UK Trident nuclear missile, which only btw is a submarine-launched ballistic missile?

Frankly reading this thread it's like reading Russia Today. The Russian propaganda functions brilliantly today....as always...
You have to give that to "Mother Russia".

It would be a marriage against nature...Turkey is supporting Russia big time, they both have huge resentments against the West. (imagine that)

Well, there's a significant cooperation between Rosatom and Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and Bulgaria.

There is a plan in Hungary to build new reactors at the Paks NPP to be able to decommission older ones and increase capacity. Russia loans money to Hungary, then Hungary buys reactors from Russian manufacturers, and the whole project is managed by Rosatom. The license to build the plant is evaluated right now by the Hungarian nuclear safety authority https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/A...icence-delayed

If shooting starts, quite probably economic sanctions follow and business will slow down. Back on 2017, Rosatom expected 140 billion USD of exports for the 2017-2027 period. If Russia steps on Ukraine, the discussion on EU countries doing business with them by the billion will be very very interesting https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C...-23101702.html