Russia will not stop supply to Germany. They have only to lose if they do so as this will only accelerate the process for alternative suppliers. They are aware that their power to inflict short to mid-term pain, but this will be a one-off as it will forever damage them as a reliable supplier. Gas is actually plentiful, it's not the commodity itself that's the problem, it's the logistics of it that causes headaches. If Russia forced Germany to diversify, it will have inflicted self-harm from which it will probably never recover. Germany is (or was a few years ago when I was checking it) the worlds largest gas importer and as such, is a very lucrative customer. Rich, reliable and hungry - there's plenty of willing suppliers which will be willing to invest to make them a long-term partner.

Also, let's not paint doomsday scenarios. Gas is very important, but let's put it in perspective. Roughly 20% of all energy needs are covered by Gas and and Russia supplies about 40% of that 20% which is 8% overall. This is no joke by any means, but at the same time it's not a massive chaos and crisis if it happens.

Don't underestimate how stupid, arrogant and short-sighted putin (who is actually a terrible strategist) and the russian estabilishment is.

Year ago Elon Musk wanted to buy some rockets from them...they asked for an insane amount for their soviet-era garbage, then literally spitted at him and laughed at him. This convinced Musk to do everything on his own, and to create SpaceX...today SpaceX is eating their lunch and reducing the reliance of the US on the Soyuz. Yet another loss of income source for their basked case economy...idiots.

Someone whose firmly in charge of Russia since the late 90s uninterrupted cannot by any measure be called short-sighted. (un)fortunately, he's not stupid, underestimating him has been a major mistake of the West in the early 2000s and the West is now overcompensating the underestimation with overestimation which is equally ridiculous.

Exactly!

it is quite interesting to hear about this hype about Russia- Ukraine war; yet, is Ukraine mobilizing? If it was 'imminent' (like those fake headlines suggested) I would have assume the army would have been fully mobiiized by now. Instead twitter warriors keep sending kalasnikov girl photos taken probably in Belarus in the nineties.. lol.

Is NATO going to war with Russia or with Ukraine? Why are the NATO countries asking their citizens to leave Ukraine and not Russia? I would imagine first call to leave is for the country you go to war against LOL.


Like your ability to invoke anything anti-Russian. Spare me pls.
Like 'Russian jets scrambling NATO pilots' - seriously? compared to US presence in the world you complain about Russian pilots?

I used the Serbian example as it was heavily invoked in another thread, and no, it was not me neither who started it nor pushed it.

And why do you feel obliged to the comment never addressed to you?

ALl I can say, all who are worried here about B52s being moved to UK - you deserved it.

Shows how little clue has someone who never worked in the gas sector.

You're wrong. If Ukraine mobilizes the army it will give a pretext to Putin to spin it as a threat to Russia which will only give him more options to maneuver.

You're wrong again. There's no threat whatsoever to Russia itself, neither from Ukraine, nor from NATO.

If we look at daily and spot reports from the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine there are gunshots and explosions every day in East Ukraine, a horrible situation for the people still living there.

Sad to say that the only thing that's driven Covid-19 from the news headlines is the constant clarion call that
'The Russians Are Coming !, the Russians Are Coming !' where even Boris has joined in, no doubt to finally
get away from his Downing Street parties.

Maybe we should buy the t-shirt although this one doesn't have Biden as the US President.

The Russians Are Coming !, the Russians Are Coming ! - Classic t-shirt

For those who missed the last time 'The Russians Are Coming, the russians are coming' and landed in America check out the video below.

Video of the last time the Russians came in colour & Panavision !!

Seriously... if Ukraine mobilizes, it will give them a pretext, and if it joins NATO it will not? LOL

If you don't want to give them a pretext, why don't you follow Costa Rica example?

And surely there is no threat to Russia itself. Nor it will ever be. Nor there is any threat to Ukraine, other than your own fabrications.

(when I say 'your own' mean all you NATO cronies).

Ukraine is not going to join NATO, not in the foreseeable future, your assumption is flawed.

Khrushchev used to talk like that

It's so delicious to see people sticking to their hard learned vocabulary

The staged conversation on Russian state TV between Putin and Lavrov was funny. So Lavrov is saying there could be a diplomatic solution. Putin looked like a lizard.

Question now is: Is this a message sent to the West that Russia is willing to talk? Or is this a message for the Russians to nurture the fairy tale of Russia being the peaceful power here? Or both?

so what's a big deal then? just say it outloud.

LOL



ahahahahaha this is even more hilarious - had no idea Hruschov was an US official

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/u...n-pretext.html

U.S. Exposes What It Says Is Russian Effort to Fabricate Pretext for Invasion

That's exactly the point. In the real world there's no problem, but through the twisted lens of Mr. Putin, who manages an economy smaller than Italy, he needs to prove to the world he's a big boy otherwise he has erectile problems.

To be honest, we are overdue for a reality check. As I have said here before, most developed countries haven't experienced war on the doorstep for over 70 years, and we've become soft... we think everyone plays nice, and borders are fixed and finished. We invest probably more in art and crypto than defence spending (US excepted). NATO especially has been caught unprepared.

The reality is that resources are becoming more scarce, and authoritarian leaders like Putin and Xi are ready to exploit our fears of conflict.

To be honest, the West should be putting in sanctions now, to be removed only when he pulls his troops back. Otherwise he may just keep Ukraine boxed in until they do something silly.

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So sayeth the 'Speed
* I do look like my avatar

I disagree with this somewhat popular narrative. If you look at the times when we needed "tough" societies it was when we had massive conscription armies as wars were frequent and country leaders and kings needed to pump up the society as it was the society which was essentially providing the soldiers. Today, the most effective armies are made up entirely of professionals which has achieved many things, but two are fundamental 1) trained and equipped professionals are by a magnitude better than amateurs who are quickly trained and poorly equipped 2) it allows the society to focus on other things and make everyone's life better

Now, if you look at the first-tier Western-aligned armies (US, UK, France) and second-tier (Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy) you would notice that they are not only battle-ready and with significant battle-experience across the world, but they are also dominating the technological front, the communication between themselves, intelligence gathering, analysis and crucially - they have the ability to act together as their "hardware and software" are fully compatible. Their ability to project power is absolutely unquestionable and the only way that powers, such as China and Russia can challenge this is either by asymmetrical warfare around themselves, but never far away or by interfering in distant areas where the "West" is not heavily invested (such as Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh).

Militarily, the west is so much more powerful than any other challenger, that this is not even a point of debate in Moscow or Beijing. The debates they have and the way they push their military doctrines is around asymmetrical warfare and opportunistic posturing.

Just as an aside what's the situation concerning Cold War II authors, spy novelists, film & TV series etc. ?

As you know weve had some cracking spy books, spy TV series, films, thrillers, etc during the first Cold War and I'm sure there must be a new generation of authors putting pen to paper or rather hitting the keyboards, tapping away on Windows Word on their Laptops & Notepads.

The BBC already cannot resist delving into Cold War II with their acclaimed series Killing Eve. Others being films like Red Sparrow.

Of course Cold War II is generating some cracking 'real life' material, some stranger than fiction such as the Salisbury poisonings with which to emulate those geat books and spy novels although I'm sure James Bond is overdue a facelift in order to make him more PC acceptable for the 21st century.

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Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

Looks like the bluffing is over - BBC reports some Russian troops are withdrawing as the "exercise" is finished...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60386141

In the romantic world every citizen was a soldier willing to die to defend the country. In the real world this ended in citizens uselessly dying while failing to to stop an invading army. However, amateurs are relatively effective in guerilla warfare and terrorism, making the life of the invader/occupier hard. I guess that's the asymmetrical warfare.

This is an interesting topic because the definition of strong is complicate. Wars are endurance events, soldiers should be closer to marathon runners than weightlifting bros. Somehow the idea of strong was captured by large guy sports over biathlon (cross-country ski + rifle shooting). Me, coming from no snow country wonder if I should start and promote at home a sport that combines 21K run with rifle shooting. Look at the men and women in biathlon, they become capable soldiers the moment they get a real weapon in their hands. The irony is that sports and activities that are perceived as "strong" are just injury factories, sending people to hospital and causing lifetime disability...hardly the way to build an army.

PS. back at home I competed several times in a 72K race. It was a race organized by a military inspired organization for the youth. No gun was carried and no shooting was pointed, but there was rule for the race to run with a backpack at least 10 kilos at the end of the race and carrying basic soldier equipment (knife, lantern, compass, fire making stuff, old wool emergency blanket, a mirror, etc). I ran as a long haired hippy along the military wannabes, but some years later I see the point of these activities: defense army.

It will be a while before the bluffing is over. Simultaneously to the "partial withdrawal, the Duma votes in favour ot recognizing the Donbass separatist "republics".

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...regions-a76381