At the end of the day, the Ruzssians have won, they managed to increase the oil price to $100.--/barel up from around $50.--



They're laughing all the way to the bank now !

Nothing, if you are Russian. My point is that all Ukrainians I know (not that many to be fair) would like to be recognized as Ukrainians and not as some type of Малороссы. Not only by the Russians but also by the West.

I agree with you and have the same feeling. Yet, that won't really help them much as the "west" is now much more likely to be even more cautious with it's support for Ukraine. Unfortunately, the situation with them is now very binary. Either they get full membership in NATO ASAP, which we know isn't going to happen or the west should pull back on supporting them as this will be seen by Moscow as yet another reason to ramp up the provocations. We all know what's going to happen: Putin will continue to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine be interfering in their internal politics and supporting various separatist factions and the West will be watching by the sidelines and issue frequent "condemnations". I feel for the Ukrainians, they're really stuck unfortunately.

Headlines in the Times :

Joe Biden doubts Russia is withdrawing from Ukraine border
US warning comes as intelligence officials suggest there is ‘no sign of de-escalation’

Stocks rally after Russia ‘pulls back’
Oil falls sharply and safe-haven assets retreat

So who's right? Biden and US intelligence, or the Market?

Good chance Putin may just leave his troops parked around Ukraine until the US mid-terms are complete...and a more Kremlin-friendly congress/senate is in place. In the meantime he'll be happy to have so much world attention.

He will have to remove a sizable portion of the troops in order to be able to ramp up pressure in the future again. If he leaves >100k soldiers and hardware at the border and doesn't invade, he'll weaken his threat.

We have already established that Minsk is not binding - so what's a problem with violating it? Same goes for Helsinki Act - to quote your argument (i.e. it is non-binding so no problem violating it).


Maybe you don't know any Ukrainian from the East?
(and remember - those that were the majority who voted democratically to elect the President Yanukovich; who was then ousted in the coup d'etat)

You're wrong, as expected. Russia is claiming the Minsk accords are binding and yet, it is violating them. Russia is the one to violate the non-binding Helsinki act. Do you start to see the pattern now as to who is the villain in the story?

Well you may wish to address your concerns to the US and all countries that recognized Kosovo (in violation of Helsinki Act), before you can say anything to Russia.

Unless you are a complete hypocrite (funny enough, in line with NATO stance

('surely we can violate Helsinki Act - but when Russia does so we will keep crying that international law is violated').

You are utterly confused and off-topic, but let me entertain your low-level trolling for a last time. The Helsinki Accord was signed in the 70s in an attempt to decrease tension between the "East" and the "West". The recognition of Kosovo has nothing to do with it.

I have my own personal opinion why the Kosovo recognition was a huge strategic mistake and on top completely unfair to Serbia. The Balkans will continue to pay the price for this utter non-sense by NATO and EU but that is an altogether different topic

Yes, we can go further this way that neither the UN charter nor Helsinki Accord and the concept of territorial integrity have anything to do with Kosovo.

Nor with Crimea. Nor with Donbas. Nor with Bosnia (read Republika Srpska).

Cannot agree more! So good to hear that we agree 100%!

Seeing an awful lot of Ukraine registered cars and busses on the roads these days.
Driving back from Garmisch today, bombing along the B17 and came across a troupe of German soldiers on exercise and in full cammo crossing the road... ...without any Streckenposten warning the cars. I almost flattened the buggers.
There is also a lot of conflicting news, some from respectable sources. The Russkies are pulling back, the Russkies are still poised for invasion, seems that there is no accord on western media on the situation, from this it is hard to figure out what exactly is going on.
One thing is for sure in my opinion; the political landscape of Europe will change, alliances will shift, America will no longer be seen as the bright beacon and it´s hegemony will weaken, therefore I think that the Europeans will become a bit more Russian.

Perhaps that is the endgame.

__________________
Back in Bavaria, god´s own belly button.

St. Moritzs is already on that path....

the false vision was heavily promoted by russian empire for more than 300 years

true. already occupied by russians

I disagree. You cannot use the level of US engagement in Ukraine and extrapolate it across to Europe. It's certainly over simplistic (and a favorite GOP view) of how helpless Europe is without the US, but the reality is the US needs Europe almost as much, this isn't likely to change. The US forces and commitment to Europe are here to stay.

But just for the sake of the argument, lets assume that US closes itself in it's shell. Then the assumption that Europe cannot defend itself against Russia is simply wrong. Economically, Russia is a mid-size power at best (it's economy is smaller than Italy, per capita it's poorer than Romania and if you strip away gas / oil to see the real-value adding economy, it's the size of Norway). Militarily, don't forget the NATO "one attacked, all respond", but again, just for the sake of the argument, lets assume Turkey and US will not play ball. A combination of Eastern European states willing to provide logistical and base support and France / UK / Germany / Greece airforce are more than sufficient to protect Europe from any Russian threat. They don't even need to commit troops or ground hardware, fighter jets would be enough to protect against Russian navy in the Black Sea or air incursions (which are already happening anyway). But then again, this is just a purely hypothetical scenario, it's just not happening.

If the US were to follow an isolationist path, like they did before entering WW2, it would be China rushing in to fill the void, a China allied with Russia, if I am reading the dice correctly. I think that a Sino-Russia Pac would be able to offer resistance to the US without much of a problem. And if you look where China is and has invested a lot of money, the entire continent of Africa for instance. Without US backing it maybe the EU asking for assistance from Africa.
There are a lot of scenarios that could play out in the aftermath of this conflict and one of the probable ones is a diminished American power in Europe.

__________________
Back in Bavaria, god´s own belly button.

Yes, if this was ever going to be a solid alliance, which it never can be. Russia and China are merely tactically aligned on various global issues for the simple reason that they want to push the US whenever they can. However, in the mid-term China is much more a threat to Russia than it is to the US. The heavily depopulated and resource-rich Russian East happens to be next to the heavily populated Chinese west and the major reason that China is "investing" in Africa is resources. At some point, it will stop looking so far away from home and start looking closer to its border. On the ground it's already happening. If you've ever been in this part of Russia, you would have noticed the huge amount of Chinese goods and traders already establishing a presence. However, it's something that neither China nor Russia talk about as it undermines them both.

The US and Europe, as much as they like to squabble on various issues, are civilizationally basically the same and have broadly the same global and local objectives. This is no mere tactical alliance, it's simply the fact that both see the world through pretty much the same lens. This isn't going to change anytime soon.

The cooperation between Russian and Chinese cooperation does bring the Molotow-Ribentrop packt to mind, and if you substitute Poland with Ukraine you can see parallels between an unprepared Britain and France and a disunited EU.

Well, the Molotov - Ribentrop pact was also a tactical one without common long-term strategic goals between both countries. But using your example, remember how the relationship between Germany and the USSR developed after the pact?