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  #2161  
Old 17.02.2022, 08:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, the Molotov - Ribentrop pact was also a tactical one without common long-term strategic goals between both countries. But using your example, remember how the relationship between Germany and the USSR developed after the pact?
Very much, but my comparison was about how the EU´s standing at the moment reminds me of how clueless the French and the British were back in the day.
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  #2162  
Old 17.02.2022, 15:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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St. Moritzs is already on that path....
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true. already occupied by russians
Not to mention the Costa's, Andalucia in fact most of sunny Med Spain, vacated by the British following their withdrawal from the EU.
Apparently russian reinforcements are already on there way to Spain thanks to these recent announcements
by the British government.

BBC News - UK to scrap visa's for rich foreign investors
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Old 17.02.2022, 15:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not to mention the Costa's, Andalucia in fact most of sunny Med Spain, vacated by the British following their withdrawal
from the EU.
Apparently russian reinforcements are already on there way to Spain are on their way thanks to these recent

announcements by the British government.


BBC News - UK to scrap visa's for rich foreign investors
wow, is the Portugal buy 250K € visa still working?
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  #2164  
Old 17.02.2022, 16:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

US says war appears imminent after shelling on Ukraine front line - Reuters News

• UK sees 'blatant attempt' to 'fabricate pretexts for invasion'
• Zelenskiy calls shelling 'big provocation'
• Kremlin says it is seriously concerned
• West disputes Russian announcement of pullback

By Dmitry Antonov and Pavel Polityuk

MOSCOW/KYIV, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday there was now "every indication" that Russia was planning to go into Ukraine, including signs Moscow was preparing a "false flag" operation to justify it.

Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists within Ukraine earlier exchanged fire on Thursday across a frontline that divides them, in what Western officials described as a possible pretext created by Moscow to invade.
Biden ordered Secretary of State Antony Blinken to change his travel plans at the last minute to speak at a United Nations Security Council meeting on Ukraine. "The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told reporters.

Russia denies planning to invade its neighbour and said this week it was pulling back some of the more than 100,000 troops it has massed near the frontier. Washington says Russia is not withdrawing, but in fact sending more forces. "We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at NATO headquarters in Brussels. "We even see them stocking up their blood supplies." "I was a soldier myself not that long ago. I know firsthand that you don't do these sorts of things for no reason," said Austin, a retired Army general. "And you certainly don't do them if you're getting ready to pack up and go home." Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels gave conflicting accounts of shelling across the front in the Donbass separatist region. The details could not be established independently, but reports from both sides suggested an incident more serious than the routine ceasefire violations reported regularly in the area.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was "seriously concerned" about reports of an escalation. Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called the reports "a blatant attempt by the Russian government to fabricate pretexts for invasion. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the pro-Russian forces had shelled a kindergarten, in what he called a "big provocation". The separatists, for their part, accused government forces of opening fire on their territory four times in the past 24 hours. Austin said Washington was "still gathering details, but we have said for some time that the Russians might do something like this in order to justify a military conflict."

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance was "concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine. There is still no clarity, no certainty about the Russian intentions".
"They have enough troops, enough capabilities to launch a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine with very little or no warning time."
A senior Ukrainian government source said the shelling at the line of contact with Russian-backed separatist forces went beyond the scale of ceasefire violations routinely reported throughout the conflict.

'LOOKS A LOT LIKE A PROVOCATION'

"It is not typical. It looks a lot like a provocation," the source told Reuters.
A Reuters photographer in the town of Kadiivka, in Ukraine's rebel-held Luhansk region, heard the sound of some artillery fire from the direction of the line of contact, but was not able to determine the details of the incident.
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Moscow had already warned that a concentration of additional Ukrainian forces near the Donbass frontline created a risk of provocations. Kyiv has denied massing extra troops in the area.

Kyiv accused the rebels of firing shells at several locations, including some that struck a kindergarten and others that hit a school where pupils had to flee to the cellar. Video footage released by Ukrainian police showed a hole through a brick wall in a room scattered with debris and children's toys. Separate images showed emergency workers escorting small children and teachers from a building.

Russia's defence ministry released video it said showed more Russian units leaving the area near the border. But Maxar Technologies, a private U.S. company that has been tracking the build-up, said satellite images showed that, while Russia has pulled back some military equipment from near Ukraine, other hardware has arrived.
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  #2165  
Old 17.02.2022, 22:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael?re...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Michael Kofman's predictions might still be true:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/pu...with-the-west/
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What are Russia’s Options? [...] Given the stakes, and likely costs, any Russian military operation would have to attain political gains that give Moscow the ability to enforce implementation. In short, just hurting Ukraine is not enough to achieve anything that Russia wants. While some believe that Russia intends to compel Ukraine into a new Minsk-like agreement, the reality is that nobody in Moscow thinks that a Ukrainian government can be made to implement any document they sign.
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The increasingly likely scenario is that Moscow intends to install a pro-Russian government backed by its forces, which aligns with recently released claims by the United Kingdom. Alternatively, Russia may consider a partitioning of Ukraine. This would not be a total occupation of the country, but would include most of the country sans the Western regions. It would be terribly risky, and costly, but it would make Putin the Russian leader who restored much of historical Russia, and established a new buffer against NATO. A de facto occupation of most of Ukraine may be the only way that Russia can impose its will on the country if it cannot install a pro-Russian government. In launching an offensive, one of Moscow’s riskiest decisions will be whether to stay largely east, or to venture west of the Dnieper river.
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Why not something lesser in scope? A smaller campaign, perhaps seizing the rest of the Donbas, would have high costs and risks. What does this gain Moscow in Ukraine, or in terms of revising its position in Europe? If anything, it worsens Russia’s current predicament. Russian leaders have acknowledged that their strategy of trying to leverage the Donbas has failed to deliver and are unlikely to double down or repeat something that they concede won’t work. The logic of a Russian military operation suggests that the best way in which Moscow could attain lasting political gains is to use force on a large scale and commit to an occupation for some period of time.
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  #2166  
Old 18.02.2022, 00:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The situation doesn't look good...at all.
At this point I can say that Putin is unpredictable.
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  #2167  
Old 18.02.2022, 00:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Probably there are people who claim Biden is organizing the Russian invasion to protect Hunter 🤔
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Old 18.02.2022, 01:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Cold War II build up compared to the first Cold War build up with music from New Orders - Blue Monday followed by other Soviet & Warsaw Pact videos.

Cold War - Warsaw Pact music Blue Monday
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  #2169  
Old 18.02.2022, 08:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The situation doesn't look good...at all.
At this point I can say that Putin is unpredictable.
Naah, the figures just don't add up. The circa 130k Russian soldiers is plenty to create pressure, but no where near enough to overwhelm the Ukrainians and will incur significant losses.

For me the more dangerous aspect is how long can the US maintain the level of credibility and counter-pressure with the frequent notifications that an attack is imminent?
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Old 18.02.2022, 09:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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naah, the figures just don't add up. The circa 130k russian soldiers is plenty to create pressure, but no where near enough to overwhelm the ukrainians and will incur significant losses.

For me the more dangerous aspect is how long can the us maintain the level of credibility and counter-pressure with the frequent notifications that an attack is imminent?

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  #2171  
Old 18.02.2022, 09:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Funny and yet do not underestimate the new approach of the US towards Russia. Calling them out and publicly releasing intelligence information takes away the initiative and surprise element from Putin; This is a first and I am sure that the Kremlin did not expect the US to engage it in the information warfare as well in this way. The fact that they are nervous and somewhat surprised is also visible in the tone Lavrov and the state media outlets have started using as they are visibly a bit on the defensive re communication right now. The problem is the asymmetry in terms of skill. The Russians have been playing this disinformation game for over 100 years, but it's an interesting development nonetheless.
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  #2172  
Old 18.02.2022, 10:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Probably there are people who claim Biden is organizing the Russian invasion to protect Hunter ��
You mean people like Tucker? I'm sorry, I can't take seriously any tv biz man with a wig. That thing on his head - is fake.
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  #2173  
Old 18.02.2022, 10:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Naah, the figures just don't add up. The circa 130k Russian soldiers is plenty to create pressure, but no where near enough to overwhelm the Ukrainians and will incur significant losses.
2003 Iraq invasion was of similar number, no idea how the hardware disparities stack up. I think the key would be the morale (or lack thereof) and the attitude and sympathies of the population.Also, Russia has an extremely efficient in its brutality internal security apparatus that kept both the Soviet Union and its surrounding nations completely subdued until the mysterious fall and dissolution of the SU. I bet its remnants have survived in Ukraine, any still alive members are on file and can help set up the new old regime, so it won't slip back from Russia's grip like Iraq under Iranian influence.
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Old 18.02.2022, 11:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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2003 Iraq invasion was of similar number, no idea how the hardware disparities stack up.
Incomparable. The opening salvo then was a massive and very precise aerial bombardment of over 70 military sites which denied the Iraqi army any intelligence as to when, where and how many troops will enter. Once they entered, the hardware disparity in terms of technology was so brutally overwhelming that the Iraqi army collapsed within 2 weeks. Both things are not the same here. Ukraine and the world know exactly where the Russians are and the hardware disparity in terms of tech is not so drastically different. Yes, the Russians have superior army overall, but the Ukrainians are much more battle ready today and will almost certainly not be overwhelmed as easily. Even the most hawkish Russians know that they will incur heavy losses if they invade. Yes, they will overwhelm, but at a very high price.

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I bet its remnants have survived in Ukraine, any still alive members are on file and can help set up the new old regime, so it won't slip back from Russia's grip like Iraq under Iranian influence.

I fully agree. This is precisely what I believe is the endgame for Russia: being able to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev
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Old 18.02.2022, 11:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You mean people like Tucker? I'm sorry, I can't take seriously any tv biz man with a wig. That thing on his head - is fake.
As if the hair is the issue with that chump.
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  #2176  
Old 18.02.2022, 13:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I fully agree. This is precisely what I believe is the endgame for Russia: being able to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev
Would that be a bad thing?
I get the impression that a majority of Ukraines would not be too adverse to the idea.
Well there would be stability and a way out of the recession currently in Ukraine society.
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Old 18.02.2022, 13:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I get the impression that a majority of Ukraines would not be too adverse to the idea.
Stop reading Pravda.ru
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Old 18.02.2022, 13:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Would that be a bad thing?
I get the impression that a majority of Ukraines would not be too adverse to the idea.
Well there would be stability and a way out of the recession currently in Ukraine society.
Well, I don't know where to begin...
I mean, if you are sincerely voicing your own opinion and not simply trolling.
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Old 18.02.2022, 14:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, I don't know where to begin...
I mean, if you are sincerely voicing your own opinion and not simply trolling.
Well it‘s been three years since I was last in Ukraine and the was a lot of resentment over the pro west government. And if you think that Ukraines make up the largest immigrant Populationen in Russia then one could come that conclusion.
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Old 18.02.2022, 14:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well it‘s been three years since I was last in Ukraine and the was a lot of resentment over the pro west government. And if you think that Ukraines make up the largest immigrant Populationen in Russia then one could come that conclusion.
Well, sure, after the annexation of Crimea this has risen substantially and yet, they do not represent the largest ethnic immigrant population in Russia. The largest group are the Tatars.
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