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  #2281  
Old 20.02.2022, 18:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I admit I followed this thread very loosely.

AFAIK, once upon a time, the West assured Russia that no NATO expansion beyond the German borders as agreed in the 2+4 talks would happen.

There is no written document, from what I understand that spells this out, but there are is a lot of supporting evidence in notes and cables etc.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...nato-expansion


I don't see the link to the original article, but here is a for-pay article:

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/nato-...6-2cd6d3285295

IMO, there should have been a consultation with Russia as to how to deal with the former Warsaw-pact states that want to join.

Instead, their membership was accepted - probably with the idea in mind that it was easier to ask for forgiveness later than for permission beforehand...
2+4 were the two Germanys and the four occupying (of Germany) countries SU, US, FR and UK.

A bit of arrogance to suggest that these had any authority to decide for the rest of Europe.

Nato is not a threat to Russia, nor is any European country.
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  #2282  
Old 20.02.2022, 18:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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AFAIK, once upon a time, the West assured Russia that no NATO expansion beyond the German borders as agreed in the 2+4 talks would happen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...nato-expansion
This is exactly the problem here: Russia continues to have a mentality of spheres of influence irrelevant of the choices of these spheres. All the countries in Eastern Europe had referendums to join NATO. Moreover, there has never been a document, treaty, agreement, whatsoever in which NATO agrees with Russia to no expansion beyond Germany. You can do well by ditching sources like zerohedge.

Most importantly, Eastern Europe knows that it did the right choice in joining NATO. This is the only thing that protects it from Russia and logically, the more Russia bullies and harasses its neighbors, the stronger this conviction is. Probably the only thing that has saved the Baltic states is indeed NATO.

Russia's "fear" of NATO is absolutely self-delusional and not even Putin ever imagines that NATO will attack Russia. He's just using it as a justification for his tantrums and finally the world is waking up to this madman and whatever the outcome of the Ukraine crisis is, the view on Russia in the West has fundamentally shifted. It is now an untrustworthy bully who needs to be contained one way or another.


Check this: quite factual and comprehensive
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-expansi.../31263602.html
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  #2283  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is exactly the problem here: Russia continues to have a mentality of spheres of influence irrelevant of the choices of these spheres. All the countries in Eastern Europe had referendums to join NATO. Moreover, there has never been a document, treaty, agreement, whatsoever in which NATO agrees with Russia to no expansion beyond Germany. You can do well by ditching sources like zerohedge.

Most importantly, Eastern Europe knows that it did the right choice in joining NATO. This is the only thing that protects it from Russia and logically, the more Russia bullies and harasses its neighbors, the stronger this conviction is. Probably the only thing that has saved the Baltic states is indeed NATO.

Russia's "fear" of NATO is absolutely self-delusional and not even Putin ever imagines that NATO will attack Russia. He's just using it as a justification for his tantrums and finally the world is waking up to this madman and whatever the outcome of the Ukraine crisis is, the view on Russia in the West has fundamentally shifted. It is now an untrustworthy bully who needs to be contained one way or another.


Check this: quite factual and comprehensive
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-expansi.../31263602.html
Sorry but you are bringing Putin down to the level of teeth gnashing, wide-eyed and lunatic fringe tin pot dictators of a Trumpian level. And Putin is everything except that. You are buying into the western propaganda that Putin is mired in the past, stuck in imperialistic 19th century delusions of grandeur. I would call Putin one of the first 21st century politicians. And believe me the way things are heading that may not be a good thing.
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  #2284  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

BTW, people who Russia evacuated from LDPR are still staying in buses, for two days already. Including babies and old people. Without Putin they would have lived peacefully in their homes on Ukrainian territory as they did before 2014 and no war would ever have come to their region.
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  #2285  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

"According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN."

The latest US estimate is the Russian forces total around 190,000 which is probably larger than the Ukraine army, it must be costing Russia a fortune to keep them combat ready and supplied.

If they do invade then their costs will escalate and if the stories of strong Ukraine guerrilla forces are true then their costs will keep rising.
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  #2286  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are buying into the western propaganda that Putin is mired in the past, stuck in imperialistic 19th century delusions of grandeur.

On the contrary, the "western" view of Putin is very very recent. The Eastern European view of Putin has been quite clear since at least the early 2000s when he started openly meddling in the politics of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, neither NATO nor the EU were paying attention to the warnings coming from the east, they had to learn their lesson the hard way.

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I would call Putin one of the first 21st century politicians. And believe me the way things are heading that may not be a good thing.
What is your definition of a 21st century politician? A failed economy based solely on extraction of natural resources and no value add, extreme concentration of resources in a few oligarchs, complete suppression of any political opposition and invading neighboring countries only because they are militarily weaker?
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  #2287  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sounds like the time is right for Georgia to takeback some of its lost territory… And Japan,

Any others.
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  #2288  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What is your definition of a 21st century politician? A failed economy based solely on extraction of natural resources and no value add, extreme concentration of resources in a few oligarchs, complete suppression of any political opposition and invading neighboring countries only because they are militarily weaker?
You make that sound like a bad thing.


Actually I think you are correct regardless on where you look, Kremlin, WallStreet, The City. Perhaps the latter don´t invade with their military (American meddling as the exeption to the rule) but it doesn´t matter, the "how" is just cosmetics.
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  #2289  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You make that sound like a bad thing.


Actually I think you are correct regardless on where you look, Kremlin, WallStreet, The City. Perhaps the latter don´t invade with their military (American meddling as the exeption to the rule) but it doesn´t matter, the "how" is just cosmetics.
Laughable.
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  #2290  
Old 20.02.2022, 19:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is not that easy — to build the strong economy. The Soviet Union broke into 15 separate countries, and Russia was one of them. How many of these countries today are doing better economically than Russia?
All the Warsaw Pact countries except Albania have higher GDPs per capita than Russia as do three former Soviet states.
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Old 20.02.2022, 20:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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All the Warsaw Pact countries except Albania have higher GDPs per capita than Russia as do three former Soviet states.
And that's even when many of them has not so many natural resources riches like Russia has.
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  #2292  
Old 20.02.2022, 22:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Let him groan he's unable to formulate meaningful counter arguments and is thus quite entertaining. I like him, he's like a predictable puppy
Yeah, I think serial groaning is against the forum rules though....I dragged him to my ignore list because I don't find him "cute". Predictably annoying.
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  #2293  
Old 20.02.2022, 23:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Also they have shown videos of Ukrainian kindergarden shelled by the separatists and say that this is a kindergarten in LPR shelled by Ukrainian army.
Is that the building with a hole in the wall and one window shattered, while the rest of the wall and all other windows are intact?

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All the countries in Eastern Europe had referendums to join NATO.
Ah get it - cannot agree more with your support to Crimean referendum.

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BTW, people who Russia evacuated from LDPR are still staying in buses, for two days already. Including babies and old people. Without Putin they would have lived peacefully in their homes on Ukrainian territory as they did before 2014 and no war would ever have come to their region.
They would have lived peacefully in their homes with the President they elected - but no, someone decided to orchestrate an African style coup.

And that someone was not Putin, for sure.

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The Eastern European view of Putin has been quite clear since at least the early 2000s when he started openly meddling in the politics of Eastern Europe.
Yep - kind of remember Putin orchestrating Russian agression/bombing of Serbia in 1999.

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Sounds like the time is right for Georgia to takeback some of its lost territory… And Japan,

Any others.
Cannot agree more - I am sure you mean Serbia here.
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  #2294  
Old 21.02.2022, 08:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They would have lived peacefully in their homes with the President they elected -
You seem to be enthralled and in love with Putin and Russia, and yet, you seem to be more comfortable in the decadent and weak West. What gives? Why don't you move there and tell us first-hand how the situation is in Russia?
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  #2295  
Old 21.02.2022, 08:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You seem to be enthralled and in love with Putin and Russia, and yet, you seem to be more comfortable in the decadent and weak West. What gives? Why don't you move there and tell us first-hand how the situation is in Russia?
Even the representatives of the pro-Russian party are leaving Ukraine with the families on charter flights towards western Europe, not Russia.
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  #2296  
Old 21.02.2022, 08:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You seem to be enthralled and in love with Putin and Russia, and yet, you seem to be more comfortable in the decadent and weak West. What gives? Why don't you move there and tell us first-hand how the situation is in Russia?
Putin encourages separatist movements and revisionism (only when it fits Russia's interests..as per divide et impera) that's why he is so loved by some people..nothing to see here, really..

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Even the representatives of the pro-Russian party are leaving Ukraine with the families on charter flights towards western Europe, not Russia.
But of course. They can even apply for political asylum here, and be accepted!

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You seem to be enthralled and in love with Putin and Russia, and yet, you seem to be more comfortable in the decadent and weak West. What gives? Why don't you move there and tell us first-hand how the situation is in Russia?
Armchair "rebel"....this level of militantism would deserve a better cause.

Last edited by greenmount; 21.02.2022 at 10:06.
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  #2297  
Old 21.02.2022, 17:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

fyi!
https://www.globalfirepower.com/
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  #2298  
Old 21.02.2022, 17:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin will decide today on the recognition of the independence of L/DPR. The problem is that they will recognize them in the borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, in the words of Russian government "before they have been occupied by Ukraine". It means that Russia will start a war with Ukraine to "deoccupy" the whole regions and then probably invade the whole Ukraine.
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  #2299  
Old 21.02.2022, 17:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin will decide today on the recognition of the independence of L/DPR. The problem is that they will recognize them in the borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine, in the words of Russian government "before they have been occupied by Ukraine". It means that Russia will start a war with Ukraine to "deoccupy" the whole regions and then probably invade the whole Ukraine.
Once they recognize the independence, they might go ahead and move the troops in DNR/LNR the same way as they did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It looks like this is what they are trying to organize. Did they go completely crazy? They cannot do this.
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  #2300  
Old 21.02.2022, 17:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Once they recognize the independence, they might go ahead and move the troops in DNR/LNR the same way as they did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It looks like this is what they are trying to organize. Did they go completely crazy? They cannot do this.
Oh they can do it, they shouldn't, but they definitely can do it.
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