I have listened to the Putin‘s announcement yesterday for the whole hour-long speech, and to be honest this was the first time I have listened to him for more than a minute. The speech was more about Ukraine than the breakaway republics. He was basically saying that Ukraine as the country was not historically valid, that it was not even the country in a way. He said that Lenin created it. This is very aggressive, and I really don’t understand why he is doing this — sorry I don’t buy the idea that Putin wants to be the new Napoleon. Putin follows some kind of political objectives, but I struggle to understand what possible good could be from the invasion of Ukraine. This will be a catastrophe for both countries. Who might benefit from this?

Putin is looking to secure all of his borders for the long-term future of Russia. The Ukraine is actively not in compliance with Russia and wants to join NATO... imo it's not rocket science why he wants this threat removed before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently and it becomes a bastion of Western influence on his doorstep. As long as Ukraine is more or less still by itself and not part of any alliance then the task of subjugating it is much easier to deal with militarily as well as the political and legal consequences.

The Tzar, Putin wants to be a new Tzar. His discourse, his arrogance towards neighbours, the fact that we would deal only with USA (he openly despised France for instance), the fact that all the ambassadors he had ever sent to ex-satellites and republics were the paramount of arrogance, and and and....actually a Tzar would have been more educated and would have respected his "enemies" more, so I don't know what or who he wants to reincarnate....Stalin?

And unfortunately the reign of the Trumped-up gave a free pass to these sort of individuals, it became acceptable to even desirable for some to be like Putin. We now have all sort of middle-aged impotent males trying hard to make the world a less safe and less democratic place. The era of illiberalism is full on.

There are many unfriendly countries on the Russian borders. Why Ukraine?
Russia will lose a lot. The war is very expensive, maintenance of the occupied territories is extremely expensive. Hundreds of thousand of refugees are very expensive and will create anger in the Russian public. Economic blockade will be a disaster for Russia. Coffins with Russian men, dead and suffering civilians, economic collapse. Not to mention that Ukraine is not some kind of distant land on the map. Almost every family has relatives in Russia. This war will be a disaster.

A bizarre speech. The setting was weird, in this bland bureaucrat office, him sitting and leaning backwards, and looking just angry and somewhat unprepared. It felt like pure grievance and even hatred towards Ukraine. I don't buy the multidimensional chess player smarts of the guy.

Russia is the third largest oil exporter.

Moving the Russian border further west won't make much of a difference in this respect. I think that's just the rationalization of Putin's expansion ambitions.

I agree that it was weird but if you listen to the speech in Russian without translation, it's quite well structured and pointed. His underlying point is much broader than Ukraine. He's after "fixing unfair" historical events. He's basically saying he has the moral right and even obligation to fix this unfairness. It goes beyond Ukraine and I just can't stop making the parallels in my mind that we are at a Neville Chamberlain moment. The "West" needs to recognize this is not about Ukraine only, it's about Eastern Europe all the way to the borders of Austria.

Maybe it'll be the final spur for the Russian population to overthrow Putin and his lackeys and turn Russia into a true democracy finally.

Well, think about it leonie. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are already members of NATO, so obviously they can't be attacked without serious repercussions. Belarus is a pro-Russian puppet and acts as a buffer between Russia and other more significant countries. This leaves Ukraine, a geographically bigger landmass than all of those other countries with a huge and long border to Russia that is sitting on his doorstep with direct access to the heartland of Russia. If Ukraine stays independent and then joins NATO it gives the West a huge military advantage, having NATO borders everywhere except Belarus.

Also the Ukraine is a country with, as you say, significant direct ties to Russia that has resulted in a country where a significant proportion of the population is pro-Russian. In terms of theoretical ease of integration after subjugation it would also be easier for Russia to deal with that. I think Ukraine is many things for Putin... both a point of pride and a big potential future military problem on his doorstep.

But well, he already achieved some things from this Plan - Black Sea is almost a Russian "lake" now and he will leave Ukraine landlocked.

Black Sea is by no means and never will be a Russian lake, c'mon. Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey border the Black Sea and they are all NATO members.

We will see what happens following the end of Boris Johnson's COBRA meeting today, maybe the UK has found a new role for itself after Brexit, namely to be the worlds Policeman.

The Lion awakes - opening to The Charge of the Light Brigade

Is it 'Rocket' science? I bloody hope not!

Well, Israel is lobbying/praying for no economic sanctions to Russia: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...ia-operations/

Meanwhile in China they take the pragmatic side of "we need Russian coal, nat gas and oil": https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...gtype=homepage

Indian government is taking a nap: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/

But people in India do notice wheat and corn exports from Russia and Ukraine are vital: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst

Back to CH, when do we buy gas at 3-4 CHF/liter? And, which Swiss banks will suffer with the economic sanctions to Russia?

Declaring them independent and then moving in an occupation force is somehow contradictory.

But where does this stop?
He could decide next to strengthen Ukraine's western border. Might as well snap up Moldova while he is there.
Of course, the same Putin border securing argument applies to occupying Finland and then why not Sweden as well?

He already has an occupation force in Belarus, who will remain in the country indefinitely, Belarus’s defence ministry has said.

Kazakhstan also has a force of Russian peacekeepers and currently, 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory is under Russian military occupation.

Putin is an empire builder by military force.

Also involved in the Syrian civil war since 2015.

The questions is how many fronts can be fought at the same time.

Russia will celebrate a public holiday tomorrow: Day of the Defenders of the Fatherland. Both Russia and Ukraine have penciled in Victory Day for May 9th.

Absolutely! However, I believe his focus is not on West "proper" (Sweden and Finland), I believe his ambition is to reclaim the former USSR sphere of influence. In the "near abroad" (a term used during USSR to collectively describe the Eastern block) he has continued to meddle for decades. He orchestrated a coup in Montenegro, he is propping up Orban in Hungary, supplying military hardware to Serbia, and one of the senior MPs in his own party openly said that they will "buy" Bulgaria.

I think he's using military power where he knows there will be no NATO response and he's preparing the ground for a long-term game in NATO/EU Eastern Europe in the hope of getting pro-Russian and anti-NATO/EU governments.

Russian history and culture runs very deep...it is not so maliable that you can simply "turn" it into anything it does not want to be.

The danger for Western nations is that both China and Russia are eyeing the end game, not the next political cycle. For example, China has similarly been building up defences in the South China sea (including numerous man-made islands) as a means to extend occupation.

Bottom line: Putin is speaking with his actions. NATO, Europe and the US have to do the same or fear losing major credibility. Either way for Ukraine, I'm afraid Winter is Coming.

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So sayeth the 'Speed
* I do look like my avatar