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  #2341  
Old 22.02.2022, 09:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I have listened to the Putin‘s announcement yesterday for the whole hour-long speech, and to be honest this was the first time I have listened to him for more than a minute. The speech was more about Ukraine than the breakaway republics. He was basically saying that Ukraine as the country was not historically valid, that it was not even the country in a way. He said that Lenin created it. This is very aggressive, and I really don’t understand why he is doing this — sorry I don’t buy the idea that Putin wants to be the new Napoleon. Putin follows some kind of political objectives, but I struggle to understand what possible good could be from the invasion of Ukraine. This will be a catastrophe for both countries. Who might benefit from this?
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  #2342  
Old 22.02.2022, 09:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I have listened to the Putin‘s announcement yesterday for the whole hour-long speech, and to be honest this was the first time I have listened to him for more than a minute. The speech was more about Ukraine than the breakaway republics. He was basically saying that Ukraine as the country was not historically valid, that it was not even the country in a way. He said that Lenin created it. This is very aggressive, and I really don’t understand why he is doing this — sorry I don’t buy the idea that Putin wants to be the new Napoleon. Putin follows some kind of political objectives, but I struggle to understand what possible good could be from the invasion of Ukraine. This will be a catastrophe for both countries. Who might benefit from this?
Putin is looking to secure all of his borders for the long-term future of Russia. The Ukraine is actively not in compliance with Russia and wants to join NATO... imo it's not rocket science why he wants this threat removed before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently and it becomes a bastion of Western influence on his doorstep. As long as Ukraine is more or less still by itself and not part of any alliance then the task of subjugating it is much easier to deal with militarily as well as the political and legal consequences.

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  #2343  
Old 22.02.2022, 09:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I have listened to the Putin‘s announcement yesterday for the whole hour-long speech, and to be honest this was the first time I have listened to him for more than a minute. The speech was more about Ukraine than the breakaway republics. He was basically saying that Ukraine as the country was not historically valid, that it was not even the country in a way. He said that Lenin created it. This is very aggressive, and I really don’t understand why he is doing this — sorry I don’t buy the idea that Putin wants to be the new Napoleon. Putin follows some kind of political objectives, but I struggle to understand what possible good could be from the invasion of Ukraine. This will be a catastrophe for both countries. Who might benefit from this?
The Tzar, Putin wants to be a new Tzar. His discourse, his arrogance towards neighbours, the fact that we would deal only with USA (he openly despised France for instance), the fact that all the ambassadors he had ever sent to ex-satellites and republics were the paramount of arrogance, and and and....actually a Tzar would have been more educated and would have respected his "enemies" more, so I don't know what or who he wants to reincarnate....Stalin?

And unfortunately the reign of the Trumped-up gave a free pass to these sort of individuals, it became acceptable to even desirable for some to be like Putin. We now have all sort of middle-aged impotent males trying hard to make the world a less safe and less democratic place. The era of illiberalism is full on.
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  #2344  
Old 22.02.2022, 10:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin is looking to secure all of his borders for the long-term future of Russia. The Ukraine is actively not in compliance with Russia and wants to join NATO... imo it's not rocket science why he wants this threat removed before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently. As long as Ukraine is more or less still by itself then the task of subjugating it is much easier to deal with militarily as well as the political and legal consequences.
There are many unfriendly countries on the Russian borders. Why Ukraine?
Russia will lose a lot. The war is very expensive, maintenance of the occupied territories is extremely expensive. Hundreds of thousand of refugees are very expensive and will create anger in the Russian public. Economic blockade will be a disaster for Russia. Coffins with Russian men, dead and suffering civilians, economic collapse. Not to mention that Ukraine is not some kind of distant land on the map. Almost every family has relatives in Russia. This war will be a disaster.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I have listened to the Putin‘s announcement yesterday for the whole hour-long speech, and to be honest this was the first time I have listened to him for more than a minute. The speech was more about Ukraine than the breakaway republics. He was basically saying that Ukraine as the country was not historically valid, that it was not even the country in a way. He said that Lenin created it. This is very aggressive, and I really don’t understand why he is doing this — sorry I don’t buy the idea that Putin wants to be the new Napoleon. Putin follows some kind of political objectives, but I struggle to understand what possible good could be from the invasion of Ukraine. This will be a catastrophe for both countries. Who might benefit from this?
A bizarre speech. The setting was weird, in this bland bureaucrat office, him sitting and leaning backwards, and looking just angry and somewhat unprepared. It felt like pure grievance and even hatred towards Ukraine. I don't buy the multidimensional chess player smarts of the guy.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Meanwhile, oil prices surged as traders are concerned about disruptions to supplies of energy and other commodities.
Russia is the third largest oil exporter.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently and it becomes a bastion of Western influence on his doorstep
Moving the Russian border further west won't make much of a difference in this respect. I think that's just the rationalization of Putin's expansion ambitions.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A bizarre speech. The setting was weird, in this bland bureaucrat office, him sitting and leaning backwards, and looking just angry and somewhat unprepared. It felt like pure grievance and even hatred towards Ukraine. I don't buy the multidimensional chess player smarts of the guy.
I agree that it was weird but if you listen to the speech in Russian without translation, it's quite well structured and pointed. His underlying point is much broader than Ukraine. He's after "fixing unfair" historical events. He's basically saying he has the moral right and even obligation to fix this unfairness. It goes beyond Ukraine and I just can't stop making the parallels in my mind that we are at a Neville Chamberlain moment. The "West" needs to recognize this is not about Ukraine only, it's about Eastern Europe all the way to the borders of Austria.
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  #2349  
Old 22.02.2022, 10:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are many unfriendly countries on the Russian borders. Why Ukraine?
Russia will lose a lot. The war is very expensive, maintenance of the occupied territories is extremely expensive. Hundreds of thousand of refugees are very expensive and will create anger in the Russian public. Economic blockade will be a disaster for Russia. Coffins with Russian men, dead and suffering civilians, economic collapse. Not to mention that Ukraine is not some kind of distant land on the map. Almost every family has relatives in Russia. This war will be a disaster.
Maybe it'll be the final spur for the Russian population to overthrow Putin and his lackeys and turn Russia into a true democracy finally.
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  #2350  
Old 22.02.2022, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are many unfriendly countries on the Russian borders. Why Ukraine?
Russia will lose a lot. The war is very expensive, maintenance of the occupied territories is extremely expensive. Hundreds of thousand of refugees are very expensive and will create anger in the Russian public. Economic blockade will be a disaster for Russia. Coffins with Russian men, dead and suffering civilians, economic collapse. Not to mention that Ukraine is not some kind of distant land on the map. Almost every family has relatives in Russia. This war will be a disaster.
Well, think about it leonie. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are already members of NATO, so obviously they can't be attacked without serious repercussions. Belarus is a pro-Russian puppet and acts as a buffer between Russia and other more significant countries. This leaves Ukraine, a geographically bigger landmass than all of those other countries with a huge and long border to Russia that is sitting on his doorstep with direct access to the heartland of Russia. If Ukraine stays independent and then joins NATO it gives the West a huge military advantage, having NATO borders everywhere except Belarus.

Also the Ukraine is a country with, as you say, significant direct ties to Russia that has resulted in a country where a significant proportion of the population is pro-Russian. In terms of theoretical ease of integration after subjugation it would also be easier for Russia to deal with that. I think Ukraine is many things for Putin... both a point of pride and a big potential future military problem on his doorstep.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin is looking to secure all of his borders for the long-term future of Russia. The Ukraine is actively not in compliance with Russia and wants to join NATO... imo it's not rocket science why he wants this threat removed before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently and it becomes a bastion of Western influence on his doorstep. As long as Ukraine is more or less still by itself and not part of any alliance then the task of subjugating it is much easier to deal with militarily as well as the political and legal consequences.
But well, he already achieved some things from this Plan - Black Sea is almost a Russian "lake" now and he will leave Ukraine landlocked.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But well, he already achieved some things from this Plan - Black Sea is almost a Russian "lake" now and he will leave Ukraine landlocked.
Black Sea is by no means and never will be a Russian lake, c'mon. Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey border the Black Sea and they are all NATO members.
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Old 22.02.2022, 10:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

We will see what happens following the end of Boris Johnson's COBRA meeting today, maybe the UK has found a new role for itself after Brexit, namely to be the worlds Policeman.

The Lion awakes - opening to The Charge of the Light Brigade
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Old 22.02.2022, 11:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Is it 'Rocket' science? I bloody hope not!
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Old 22.02.2022, 11:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, Israel is lobbying/praying for no economic sanctions to Russia: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...ia-operations/

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Israeli officials are worried that the imposition of US sanctions against Russia in response to a possible invasion of Ukraine could harm Israel’s security interests in Syria, according to a report Monday.

“US sanctions against Russia put Israel in a very embarrassing position,” an official was quoted as saying. “The United States is a long-standing stable ally, but Israel needs Russia given the circumstances in the Middle East.”
Meanwhile in China they take the pragmatic side of "we need Russian coal, nat gas and oil": https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...gtype=homepage

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“China will not challenge Western sanctions on Russia, but will indirectly help its strategic partner [Russia] reduce the current difficulties and provide support within its capacity,” Shi said, adding that the newly signed deal for the supply of 100 million tonnes of coal between the two countries was a “sign” of Beijing’s support.
Indian government is taking a nap: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/

But people in India do notice wheat and corn exports from Russia and Ukraine are vital: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst

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Those involved in commodities trading have a worst-case scenario in mind. Were conflict to arise and Russia block the port of Odessa, Ukraine would have trouble exporting, Le Molgat said. In such a situation, one can imagine that there will be economic sanctions. The United States could thus decide to prohibit the trade of Russian wheat in dollars," he said.

Indonesia and Morocco, which would be forced to find wheat elsewhere, probably at a higher price. On the supply side, the European Union, United States and Australia, the other major players in terms of wheat, would be major benefactors of the disruption.
Back to CH, when do we buy gas at 3-4 CHF/liter? And, which Swiss banks will suffer with the economic sanctions to Russia?
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Old 22.02.2022, 11:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Multiple report of Russian troops and equipment moving into the newly recognised independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Declaring them independent and then moving in an occupation force is somehow contradictory.

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Putin is looking to secure all of his borders for the long-term future of Russia. The Ukraine is actively not in compliance with Russia and wants to join NATO... imo it's not rocket science why he wants this threat removed before The West can strengthen Ukraine permanently and it becomes a bastion of Western influence on his doorstep. As long as Ukraine is more or less still by itself and not part of any alliance then the task of subjugating it is much easier to deal with militarily as well as the political and legal consequences.
But where does this stop?
He could decide next to strengthen Ukraine's western border. Might as well snap up Moldova while he is there.
Of course, the same Putin border securing argument applies to occupying Finland and then why not Sweden as well?

He already has an occupation force in Belarus, who will remain in the country indefinitely, Belarus’s defence ministry has said.

Kazakhstan also has a force of Russian peacekeepers and currently, 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory is under Russian military occupation.

Putin is an empire builder by military force.
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Old 22.02.2022, 11:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But where does this stop?
Also involved in the Syrian civil war since 2015.

The questions is how many fronts can be fought at the same time.
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Old 22.02.2022, 12:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia will celebrate a public holiday tomorrow: Day of the Defenders of the Fatherland. Both Russia and Ukraine have penciled in Victory Day for May 9th.
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Old 22.02.2022, 12:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But where does this stop?
He could decide next to strengthen Ukraine's western border. Might as well snap up Moldova while he is there.
Absolutely! However, I believe his focus is not on West "proper" (Sweden and Finland), I believe his ambition is to reclaim the former USSR sphere of influence. In the "near abroad" (a term used during USSR to collectively describe the Eastern block) he has continued to meddle for decades. He orchestrated a coup in Montenegro, he is propping up Orban in Hungary, supplying military hardware to Serbia, and one of the senior MPs in his own party openly said that they will "buy" Bulgaria.

I think he's using military power where he knows there will be no NATO response and he's preparing the ground for a long-term game in NATO/EU Eastern Europe in the hope of getting pro-Russian and anti-NATO/EU governments.
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Old 22.02.2022, 12:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Maybe it'll be the final spur for the Russian population to overthrow Putin and his lackeys and turn Russia into a true democracy finally.
Russian history and culture runs very deep...it is not so maliable that you can simply "turn" it into anything it does not want to be.

The danger for Western nations is that both China and Russia are eyeing the end game, not the next political cycle. For example, China has similarly been building up defences in the South China sea (including numerous man-made islands) as a means to extend occupation.

Bottom line: Putin is speaking with his actions. NATO, Europe and the US have to do the same or fear losing major credibility. Either way for Ukraine, I'm afraid Winter is Coming.
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