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  #2361  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The questions is how many fronts can be fought at the same time.
Ask Germany how well that worked out.

Tom
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  #2362  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Europe will have a hard time agreeing on economic sanctions, and it is easy to see why. Maybe the most effective would be indeed - as some have suggested - sanction instead all the oligarchs of Putin's crime family, seize their London houses and Chamonix chalets, freeze their accounts and withdraw all their Schengen visa.

Switzerland would find itself in a tough spot though in that scenario ...
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  #2363  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Europe will have a hard time agreeing on economic sanctions, and it is easy to see why. Maybe the most effective would be indeed - as some have suggested - sanction instead all the oligarchs of Putin's crime family, seize their London houses and Chamonix chalets, freeze their accounts and withdraw all their Schengen visa.

Switzerland would find itself in a tough spot though in that scenario ...
For Switzerland there is a bingo game called Russian firms and US Sanctions. This is from November 2019:

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  #2364  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Also involved in the Syrian civil war since 2015.

The questions is how many fronts can be fought at the same time.
LOL!

I remember people posting here that Russia would finish the job and be out of Syria within a year. Some estimates claim there are 13,000 Russian troops still in Syria and large areas of Syria still outside Govt. control.

I doubt the majority of Russians will be happy to see Russian coffins returning from Ukraine, maybe this time the Govt. will cease denial and give the families of fallen soldiers the pensions they are entitled to.
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Old 22.02.2022, 12:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ask Germany how well that worked out.

Tom
The Germans didn't have hypersonic nuclear warheads.
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  #2366  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Germans didn't have hypersonic nuclear warheads.
They had the jet and could of conquered the world with it. But thankfully Hitler saw no purpose for something developed for defense.
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  #2367  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Oh, the Swiss (and us working here) are damned good at Sanctions Bingo. The minuscule footnote in the Glencore Preliminary Results 2021 report says:

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In December 2021, Glencore agreed to the sale of its interest in OAO NK Russneft. Completion of the sale is conditional on receipt of certain regulatory approvals and is expected to occur in H1 2022. Glencore’s investment in OAO NK Russneft is pledged under a loan facility issued to OAO NK Russneft.
https://www.glencore.com/media-and-i...minary-results

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Glencore holds 23.46% in Russneft's charter capital, or 31.28% of voting shares, through Rambero Holding AG. According to insiders, the Gutseriyev family that controls Russneft would buy the stake from Glencore. The final price has not been disclosed but some experts say it could be about $100 million.
https://www.energyintel.com/0000017e...e-fb6c82f30000
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  #2368  
Old 22.02.2022, 12:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

"Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the gas pipeline project cannot go ahead now in these crisis circumstances. He said the approval process has been halted."

A brave move.
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  #2369  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A brave move.
Absolutely. I hope that this is the opening salvo of wider Western sanctions, not merely the end of them. If Germany is willing to do that, the US and the EU hopefully will follow with wide economic sanctions against the Russian economy, not only against a few individuals, which would be a largely symbolic act. SWIFT exclusion might be a "nuclear option" best reserved for later, but sanctions on Russian oil and grain would be fantastic news. Yes, China will remain a customer, but the Russians will have to sell at a significant discount to make the deal worth it for the Chinese.
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  #2370  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From 20min

On Tuesday at 3 p.m., the FDFA plans to provide information on the current situation in eastern Ukraine. The Federal Department of Foreign Affairs condemns Russia's recognition of the Ukrainian regions in Luhansk and Donetsk as independent people's republics. The media conference will be attended by Livia Leu, State Secretary FDFA, and Ambassador Hans-Peter Lenz, Head of the FDFA Crisis Center.
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  #2371  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ask Germany how well that worked out.

Tom

I tried phoning, but Adolf isn't taking calls right now
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  #2372  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They had the jet and could of conquered the world with it. But thankfully Hitler saw no purpose for something developed for defense.
Not really, even if Germany had all the jets in the world and had been able to stop the allied advance the Red Army would still have been in Berlin. Even if Germany had by some miracle been able to stop the Red Army and the Allied, then either Bonn, Kassel, Wilhelmshaven, Fulda or Frankfurt a.d. Oder would have been nuked.
In fact in my very humble opinion, the allies could have not invaded and could have just kept to the defensive in 1943, not one allied soldier need to die crossing Europe. They could have simply let the Soviets cream the Germans, then Nuked the Fulda gap to stop the Soviets from overrunning the rest of Europe, rearmed the Germans and flattened the Red army.
Not all my idea by the way Churchill came up with this in Operation unthinkable.
By the way, is it just me or does the Russian foreign minister Lavrov look a bit like Zhukov?
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  #2373  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the gas pipeline project cannot go ahead now in these crisis circumstances. He said the approval process has been halted."

A brave move.
Yes but with that Germany has shot herself in the foot.
The nuke plants are being phased out, with the last ones going offline in 23. Coal plants will be history 2030-ish.
Better hope that the wind continues to blow for the windfarms.
And without NS2, Germany will be forced to buy that expensive fracking stuff from America... I wonder if that was not the American endgame all along.
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  #2374  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes but with that Germany has shot herself in the foot.
The nuke plants are being phased out, with the last ones going offline in 23. Coal plants will be history 2030-ish.
Better hope that the wind continues to blow for the windfarms.
And without NS2, Germany will be forced to buy that expensive fracking stuff from America... I wonder if that was not the American endgame all along.
Alternatively Europe could have just allowed fracking and not been reliant on Russia OR the US. Instead Europe has allowed energy policy to be dictated by a green agenda that is completely detached from reality.
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Old 22.02.2022, 13:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Alternatively Europe could have just allowed fracking and not been reliant on Russia OR the US. Instead Europe has allowed energy policy to be dictated by a green agenda that is completely detached from reality.
To true, but that is now neither here or there. There is no infrastructure in place and time has run out.
Not a fan of fracking, by the time you have to resort to fracking to satisfy your energy needs then you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
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  #2376  
Old 22.02.2022, 13:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes but with that Germany has shot herself in the foot.
The nuke plants are being phased out, with the last ones going offline in 23. Coal plants will be history 2030-ish.
Better hope that the wind continues to blow for the windfarms.
And without NS2, Germany will be forced to buy that expensive fracking stuff from America... I wonder if that was not the American endgame all along.
"Germany has shot herself in the foot."
That is exactly why I said Germany is brave.

Germany is able to buy gas from any exporter, not only America.

Today, the majority of German gas imports come from Netherlands and Norway, in July 2018, an economy ministry spokesperson put Russia’s share in German natural gas imports at “about 40 percent.”
Of course, it is always possible that Germany will be forced to introduce fracking.
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Old 22.02.2022, 14:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Alternatively Europe could have just allowed fracking and not been reliant on Russia OR the US. Instead Europe has allowed energy policy to be dictated by a green agenda that is completely detached from reality.
The problem is not the energy transition. The problem is being overly reliant on one supplier who consequentially also has extreme pricing power. If Europe had contracted firm LNG supplies - instead of interruptible where the seller only sends gas if there is no better paying market elsewhere - this would be no issue.
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Old 22.02.2022, 14:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

47% of Swiss gas supply comes from Russia:

https://gazenergie.ch/de/wissen/deta...ic/3-herkunft/
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Old 22.02.2022, 14:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Germany has shot herself in the foot."
That is exactly why I said Germany is brave.

Germany is able to buy gas from any exporter, not only America.

Today, the majority of German gas imports come from Netherlands and Norway, in July 2018, an economy ministry spokesperson put Russia’s share in German natural gas imports at “about 40 percent.”
Of course, it is always possible that Germany will be forced to introduce fracking.
It´s not just that, since coal mining ceased in 2018, Russia accounts for 50% of all coal fired in Germany, only around 15% is used for energy with the rest for steel and other energy hungry manufacturing.
For Germany to "cancel" NS2 as a sanction while NS1 is still up and running and the Russian coal imports are not included in the sanctions is hypocrisy.
In the end it´s the citizens who foot the bill for another "Milliardengrab"
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  #2380  
Old 22.02.2022, 14:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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By the way, is it just me or does the Russian foreign minister Lavrov look a bit like Zhukov?
No, he will look a bit like Ribbentrop in his last minute
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