 | | | 
22.02.2022, 14:47
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: BL
Posts: 1,282
Groaned at 235 Times in 170 Posts
Thanked 4,609 Times in 1,743 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Yes but with that Germany has shot herself in the foot. | | | | | The thing here is that the pain is very asymmetric. Yes, Germany will suffer, but Russia will suffer way more. Germany has other options. Russia doesn't really have anything besides gas, oil and grains. The pain for Germany will be short-lived and by next winter they will have re-balanced.
| 
22.02.2022, 15:01
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: SZ
Posts: 4,089
Groaned at 399 Times in 285 Posts
Thanked 8,789 Times in 3,757 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | The thing here is that the pain is very asymmetric. Yes, Germany will suffer, but Russia will suffer way more. Germany has other options. Russia doesn't really have anything besides gas, oil and grains. The pain for Germany will be short-lived and by next winter they will have re-balanced. | | | | | That is very optimistic, to put it mildly. We will come out of the winter with storage close to record lows. The global market is very tight and Asia is buying and paying a lot. In that environment, it will be very difficult to even refill storage, let alone replacing any Russian supplies that might fall away.
| 
22.02.2022, 15:06
| Senior Member | | Join Date: May 2007 Location: Geneva
Posts: 457
Groaned at 63 Times in 39 Posts
Thanked 1,311 Times in 732 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | By the way, is it just me or does the Russian foreign minister Lavrov look a bit like Zhukov? | | | | | Lavrov looks to me - puffy face, skinny legs - as if he might like the sauce.
| 
22.02.2022, 16:23
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Hopefully soon to be Aargau
Posts: 2,210
Groaned at 1,037 Times in 582 Posts
Thanked 5,486 Times in 2,457 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | To true, but that is now neither here or there. There is no infrastructure in place and time has run out.
Not a fan of fracking, by the time you have to resort to fracking to satisfy your energy needs then you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel. | | | | | Whilst you're correct this doesn't really help solve today's crisis, it is important to understand how we got here.
Also, Shale Gas (from fracking), isn't scraping the barrel, it's a resource just waiting to be exploited. For example there's 40 trillion cm3 of it sitting below Bowland in Lancashire. Just 10% of that amount would keep the UK self sufficient for gas for 50 years. | Quote: | |  | | | The problem is not the energy transition. The problem is being overly reliant on one supplier who consequentially also has extreme pricing power. If Europe had contracted firm LNG supplies - instead of interruptible where the seller only sends gas if there is no better paying market elsewhere - this would be no issue. | | | | | The problem goes far deeper than that. 20 years of failed green energy policy, taking seriously the ramblings of 16 year old activist, Germany switching off her nuclear power stations because of a freak accident on the other side of the world, the list just goes on and on. All of which has left Europe is so tragically ill prepared to handle Russia.
Europe has already been ramping up LNG imports from the US for the simple reason that the US fracked and Europe didn't.
| The following 2 users would like to thank TonyClifton for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 16:25
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: May 2008 Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,378
Groaned at 721 Times in 605 Posts
Thanked 24,083 Times in 12,610 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | That is very optimistic, to put it mildly. We will come out of the winter with storage close to record lows. The global market is very tight and Asia is buying and paying a lot. In that environment, it will be very difficult to even refill storage, let alone replacing any Russian supplies that might fall away. | | | | | According to this article on Nord Stream 2, the EU already cut Russian gas imports in January from 40% to 17%.
Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historic lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day. That’s less than half the levels of a year ago and is not good for the Ukraine economy.
Edit: Nord Stream 2 cost Russia $11 billion which they can ill afford to simply throw away.
Last edited by marton; 22.02.2022 at 16:37.
| This user would like to thank marton for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 16:28
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | "Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the gas pipeline project cannot go ahead now in these crisis circumstances. He said the approval process has been halted."
A brave move. | | | | | OK, NS2 is closed. What about the rest of the Russian gas which is coming to Europe? If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers.
Medvedev has twitted:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
| This user would like to thank for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 16:32
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Sep 2019 Location: Hopefully soon to be Aargau
Posts: 2,210
Groaned at 1,037 Times in 582 Posts
Thanked 5,486 Times in 2,457 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers. | | | | | Bingo!
| This user would like to thank TonyClifton for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 16:41
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: SZ
Posts: 4,089
Groaned at 399 Times in 285 Posts
Thanked 8,789 Times in 3,757 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | According to this article on Nord Stream 2, the EU already cut Russian gas imports in January from 40% to 17%.
Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historic lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day. That’s less than half the levels of a year ago and is not good for the Ukraine economy. | | | | | Russia is still delivering its contractual obligations. It is simply not sending more, selling into the spot market like Europe has gotten used to so much. It is a similar point as for LNG: If you do not have firm deliveries, you cannot really blame anyone if you are short.
Yes, reduced gas flows through Ukraine are not good for the Ukrainian economy. However it is Russian gas sold to EU customers, and Ukraine has no right to be the transit route for this gas.
And to the point of power generation: Yes, shutting down nuclear means more demand for gas (although currently its is actually more coal) - but less than 20% of Germany's gas demand comes from power gen, and most is heating and industrial processes.
| 
22.02.2022, 16:47
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: May 2008 Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,378
Groaned at 721 Times in 605 Posts
Thanked 24,083 Times in 12,610 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | OK, NS2 is closed. What about the rest of the Russian gas which is coming to Europe? If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers.
Medvedev has twitted:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas! | | | | | Demonstrates how much this is hurting Russia.
| 
22.02.2022, 16:51
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: SZ
Posts: 4,089
Groaned at 399 Times in 285 Posts
Thanked 8,789 Times in 3,757 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | |
Edit: Nord Stream 2 cost Russia $11 billion which they can ill afford to simply throw away.
| | | | | Half of the investment comes from Western shareholders like Shell, OMV etc.
| 
22.02.2022, 16:52
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: May 2008 Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,378
Groaned at 721 Times in 605 Posts
Thanked 24,083 Times in 12,610 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Bingo! | | | | | I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune | 
22.02.2022, 16:55
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: SZ
Posts: 4,089
Groaned at 399 Times in 285 Posts
Thanked 8,789 Times in 3,757 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune  | | | | | Low at the moment?
| 
22.02.2022, 17:02
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Lummerland
Posts: 5,660
Groaned at 235 Times in 156 Posts
Thanked 10,535 Times in 4,123 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune  | | | | | I wonder if you could call that: "War Profiteering?"
Or, where can I invest my 150Euros?
| 
22.02.2022, 17:15
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Oct 2019 Location: Suhr, Aargau
Posts: 5,573
Groaned at 105 Times in 96 Posts
Thanked 8,173 Times in 3,829 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas! | | | | | That's like the annual costs for a single home unit in Germany, not exactly the worst. Anyway, people living in single homes are not poor. Annual costs are even lower in apartments.
So, a few hundreds Euros more per year is Brave New World?
| This user would like to thank Axa for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 17:23
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: SZ
Posts: 4,089
Groaned at 399 Times in 285 Posts
Thanked 8,789 Times in 3,757 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | That's like the annual costs for a single home unit in Germany, not exactly the worst. Anyway, people living in single homes are not poor. Annual costs are even lower in apartments.
So, a few hundreds Euros more per year is Brave New World? | | | | | 2000 Euro per 1000 cubic meter is roughly 10 times the historic average wholesale gas price in Europe.
| This user would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post: | | 
22.02.2022, 17:40
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: BL
Posts: 1,282
Groaned at 235 Times in 170 Posts
Thanked 4,609 Times in 1,743 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | 2000 Euro per 1000 cubic meter is roughly 10 times the historic average wholesale gas price in Europe. | | | | | 2k EUR per 1k cubic meter is an increase vs. prior year, BUT:
1. It's not 10 times because of Ukraine, it was already very high even towards the end of last year mainly due to surging demand as economies recover post Covid and supply scrambling to meet demand.
2. around 1/3 of the gas in Europe comes from Russia, no small amount undoubtedly, but this will not mean in any way there will be no gas in Europe. There will be. It will be more expensive, but again, it will be more expensive anyway
| 
22.02.2022, 17:56
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Lummerland
Posts: 5,660
Groaned at 235 Times in 156 Posts
Thanked 10,535 Times in 4,123 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | 2k EUR per 1k cubic meter is an increase vs. prior year, BUT:
1. It's not 10 times because of Ukraine, it was already very high even towards the end of last year mainly due to surging demand as economies recover post Covid and supply scrambling to meet demand.
2. around 1/3 of the gas in Europe comes from Russia, no small amount undoubtedly, but this will not mean in any way there will be no gas in Europe. There will be. It will be more expensive, but again, it will be more expensive anyway | | | | | True, but if I had to choose l would prefers more expensive over waaaaaaaay more expensive.
| 
22.02.2022, 18:04
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: BL
Posts: 1,282
Groaned at 235 Times in 170 Posts
Thanked 4,609 Times in 1,743 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | True, but if I had to choose l would prefers more expensive over waaaaaaaay more expensive. | | | | | The price had increased over the course of LAST YEAR by a few hundred percent which has nothing to do with Ukraine, so it was already "waaaaaay more expensive".
Equally important, we would all prefer cheap gas, friendly Russia, everlasting spring and huge salaries. Live ain't perfect though.
| 
22.02.2022, 18:14
|  | Forum Legend | | Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Lummerland
Posts: 5,660
Groaned at 235 Times in 156 Posts
Thanked 10,535 Times in 4,123 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | The price had increased over the course of LAST YEAR by a few hundred percent which has nothing to do with Ukraine, so it was already "waaaaaay more expensive".
Equally important, we would all prefer cheap gas, friendly Russia, everlasting spring and huge salaries. Live ain't perfect though. | | | | | ...and unicorns farting pixiedust. I think that the energy change, the transition from fossil fuel, is going to make today’s energy prices look like the good old days.
Our civilization will end when there is no cheap energy. So is this the beginning of the end...?
| 
22.02.2022, 18:22
|  | Forum Veteran | | Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: BL
Posts: 1,282
Groaned at 235 Times in 170 Posts
Thanked 4,609 Times in 1,743 Posts
| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | ...and unicorns farting pixiedust. I think that the energy change, the transition from fossil fuel, is going to make today’s energy prices look like the good old days.
Our civilization will end when there is no cheap energy. So is this the beginning of the end...? | | | | | No, because oil and gas are actually plentiful but as a civilization we're making the slow, tough and conscious choice to move away from fossil fuel. We'll manage |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 5 (0 members and 5 guests) | | Thread Tools | | Display Modes | Linear Mode |
Posting Rules
| You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts HTML code is Off | | | All times are GMT +2. The time now is 06:47. | |