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  #2381  
Old 22.02.2022, 14:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes but with that Germany has shot herself in the foot.
The thing here is that the pain is very asymmetric. Yes, Germany will suffer, but Russia will suffer way more. Germany has other options. Russia doesn't really have anything besides gas, oil and grains. The pain for Germany will be short-lived and by next winter they will have re-balanced.
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  #2382  
Old 22.02.2022, 15:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The thing here is that the pain is very asymmetric. Yes, Germany will suffer, but Russia will suffer way more. Germany has other options. Russia doesn't really have anything besides gas, oil and grains. The pain for Germany will be short-lived and by next winter they will have re-balanced.
That is very optimistic, to put it mildly. We will come out of the winter with storage close to record lows. The global market is very tight and Asia is buying and paying a lot. In that environment, it will be very difficult to even refill storage, let alone replacing any Russian supplies that might fall away.
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  #2383  
Old 22.02.2022, 15:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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By the way, is it just me or does the Russian foreign minister Lavrov look a bit like Zhukov?
Lavrov looks to me - puffy face, skinny legs - as if he might like the sauce.
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  #2384  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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To true, but that is now neither here or there. There is no infrastructure in place and time has run out.
Not a fan of fracking, by the time you have to resort to fracking to satisfy your energy needs then you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Whilst you're correct this doesn't really help solve today's crisis, it is important to understand how we got here.

Also, Shale Gas (from fracking), isn't scraping the barrel, it's a resource just waiting to be exploited. For example there's 40 trillion cm3 of it sitting below Bowland in Lancashire. Just 10% of that amount would keep the UK self sufficient for gas for 50 years.

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The problem is not the energy transition. The problem is being overly reliant on one supplier who consequentially also has extreme pricing power. If Europe had contracted firm LNG supplies - instead of interruptible where the seller only sends gas if there is no better paying market elsewhere - this would be no issue.
The problem goes far deeper than that. 20 years of failed green energy policy, taking seriously the ramblings of 16 year old activist, Germany switching off her nuclear power stations because of a freak accident on the other side of the world, the list just goes on and on. All of which has left Europe is so tragically ill prepared to handle Russia.

Europe has already been ramping up LNG imports from the US for the simple reason that the US fracked and Europe didn't.
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  #2385  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That is very optimistic, to put it mildly. We will come out of the winter with storage close to record lows. The global market is very tight and Asia is buying and paying a lot. In that environment, it will be very difficult to even refill storage, let alone replacing any Russian supplies that might fall away.
According to this article on Nord Stream 2, the EU already cut Russian gas imports in January from 40% to 17%.
Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historic lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day. That’s less than half the levels of a year ago and is not good for the Ukraine economy.

Edit: Nord Stream 2 cost Russia $11 billion which they can ill afford to simply throw away.

Last edited by marton; 22.02.2022 at 16:37.
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  #2386  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the gas pipeline project cannot go ahead now in these crisis circumstances. He said the approval process has been halted."

A brave move.
OK, NS2 is closed. What about the rest of the Russian gas which is coming to Europe? If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers.

Medvedev has twitted:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
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Old 22.02.2022, 16:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers.
Bingo!
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Old 22.02.2022, 16:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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According to this article on Nord Stream 2, the EU already cut Russian gas imports in January from 40% to 17%.
Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historic lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day. That’s less than half the levels of a year ago and is not good for the Ukraine economy.
Russia is still delivering its contractual obligations. It is simply not sending more, selling into the spot market like Europe has gotten used to so much. It is a similar point as for LNG: If you do not have firm deliveries, you cannot really blame anyone if you are short.

Yes, reduced gas flows through Ukraine are not good for the Ukrainian economy. However it is Russian gas sold to EU customers, and Ukraine has no right to be the transit route for this gas.

And to the point of power generation: Yes, shutting down nuclear means more demand for gas (although currently its is actually more coal) - but less than 20% of Germany's gas demand comes from power gen, and most is heating and industrial processes.
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  #2389  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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OK, NS2 is closed. What about the rest of the Russian gas which is coming to Europe? If the gas prices go up, Russia will gain more money on delivering less gas. The real losers here will be the EU customers.

Medvedev has twitted:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
Demonstrates how much this is hurting Russia.
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  #2390  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Edit: Nord Stream 2 cost Russia $11 billion which they can ill afford to simply throw away.
Half of the investment comes from Western shareholders like Shell, OMV etc.
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  #2391  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Bingo!
I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune
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  #2392  
Old 22.02.2022, 16:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune
Low at the moment?
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  #2393  
Old 22.02.2022, 17:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I recommend that everyone here who is forecasting much higher gas prices invest in gas futures which are quite low at the moment, you will make a fortune
I wonder if you could call that: "War Profiteering?"
Or, where can I invest my 150Euros?
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  #2394  
Old 22.02.2022, 17:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
That's like the annual costs for a single home unit in Germany, not exactly the worst. Anyway, people living in single homes are not poor. Annual costs are even lower in apartments.

So, a few hundreds Euros more per year is Brave New World?
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Old 22.02.2022, 17:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's like the annual costs for a single home unit in Germany, not exactly the worst. Anyway, people living in single homes are not poor. Annual costs are even lower in apartments.

So, a few hundreds Euros more per year is Brave New World?
2000 Euro per 1000 cubic meter is roughly 10 times the historic average wholesale gas price in Europe.
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  #2396  
Old 22.02.2022, 17:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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2000 Euro per 1000 cubic meter is roughly 10 times the historic average wholesale gas price in Europe.
2k EUR per 1k cubic meter is an increase vs. prior year, BUT:
1. It's not 10 times because of Ukraine, it was already very high even towards the end of last year mainly due to surging demand as economies recover post Covid and supply scrambling to meet demand.
2. around 1/3 of the gas in Europe comes from Russia, no small amount undoubtedly, but this will not mean in any way there will be no gas in Europe. There will be. It will be more expensive, but again, it will be more expensive anyway
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Old 22.02.2022, 17:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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2k EUR per 1k cubic meter is an increase vs. prior year, BUT:
1. It's not 10 times because of Ukraine, it was already very high even towards the end of last year mainly due to surging demand as economies recover post Covid and supply scrambling to meet demand.
2. around 1/3 of the gas in Europe comes from Russia, no small amount undoubtedly, but this will not mean in any way there will be no gas in Europe. There will be. It will be more expensive, but again, it will be more expensive anyway
True, but if I had to choose l would prefers more expensive over waaaaaaaay more expensive.
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Old 22.02.2022, 18:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, but if I had to choose l would prefers more expensive over waaaaaaaay more expensive.
The price had increased over the course of LAST YEAR by a few hundred percent which has nothing to do with Ukraine, so it was already "waaaaaay more expensive".

Equally important, we would all prefer cheap gas, friendly Russia, everlasting spring and huge salaries. Live ain't perfect though.
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Old 22.02.2022, 18:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The price had increased over the course of LAST YEAR by a few hundred percent which has nothing to do with Ukraine, so it was already "waaaaaay more expensive".

Equally important, we would all prefer cheap gas, friendly Russia, everlasting spring and huge salaries. Live ain't perfect though.
...and unicorns farting pixiedust. I think that the energy change, the transition from fossil fuel, is going to make today’s energy prices look like the good old days.
Our civilization will end when there is no cheap energy. So is this the beginning of the end...?
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Old 22.02.2022, 18:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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...and unicorns farting pixiedust. I think that the energy change, the transition from fossil fuel, is going to make today’s energy prices look like the good old days.
Our civilization will end when there is no cheap energy. So is this the beginning of the end...?
No, because oil and gas are actually plentiful but as a civilization we're making the slow, tough and conscious choice to move away from fossil fuel. We'll manage
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