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Old 23.02.2022, 20:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am no military expert so I don't know that. I would in fact like to hear something about this aspect - from occasionally listening to what guys like Gen Hertling (who is now a regular on CNN) have to say, I would it is not that bad.

Also, who knows how good the Russians really are. It is not like they have won any major wars lately. There were some reports how the Russian troops are behaving in Belarus, and it sounded unorganized, undersupplied and heavily into booze.
There's only two seriously military powers in Europe, France and the UK. Everyone else in Europe just gave up on defense once the Cold War was over. There was a think tank a few years ago that said the UK Army would be no match for Russia were conflict ever to take place. It's only one think tank but it's quite easy to see this being the case.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50567271

The problem is that Europe has just relied too heavily on the US for too long. This is actually a very European problem, terrible energy policy, coupled with zero defense has really exposed Europe's soft underbelly.

I feel for the people of Ukraine, they have been overpromised and used as a pawn between the West and Russia. It's a very sad situation, Putin can do as he likes and there's not very much that can be done to stop him.

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Rubbish. Recent encounters of Russian forces with US soldiers in Syria ended up with a humiliation for the Russians, in Georgia the performance of the Russians was so bad in terms of inter-unit communication that they were shooting down their own airforce, in Chechnya which was supposed to be a blietzkrig tank units in the city were ambushed and destroyed due to poor tactics and lack of intelligence, the 2014 conflict in Ukraine was so bad in terms of Russian performance, that Putin made the death toll a state secret

In the everlasting words of Churchill, Russia is never as strong as it believes it is and never as weak as we believe.
Fighting is one thing, holding on to the gains is something else. This is why ultimately I believe Vladimir Putin won't try and take the whole of the Ukraine.
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  #2462  
Old 23.02.2022, 20:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia has gas (and other resources), fair enough, but it shouldn't be more than a commercial partner. That alone doesn't give anyone the right to mingle in other countries' political affairs.
And what alone gives the right to the US and NATO to mingle in other countries' political affairs (does Ukraine/Maidan ring a bell? Yugoslavia? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? South America? Afghanistan? and so on...).
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  #2463  
Old 23.02.2022, 20:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And what alone gives the right to the US and NATO to mingle in other countries' political affairs (does Ukraine/Maidan ring a bell? Yugoslavia? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? South America? Afghanistan? and so on...).
This is also a valid point "it's OK when we do it". Remember the Cuban missile crisis? Imagine if Russian troops were stationed in Mexico?

This is why Ukraine have been treated badly, and this comes down to the unnecessary need of both the EU and NATO to continuously expand.
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Old 23.02.2022, 20:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And what alone gives the right to the US and NATO to mingle in other countries' political affairs (does Ukraine/Maidan ring a bell? Yugoslavia? Serbia? Iraq? Libya? South America? Afghanistan? and so on...).
Serbia? Hard to shake your roots?
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Old 23.02.2022, 20:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is why Ukraine have been treated badly, and this comes down to the unnecessary need of both the EU and NATO to continuously expand.
Yawn.
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Old 23.02.2022, 20:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is also a valid point "it's OK when we do it". Remember the Cuban missile crisis? Imagine if Russian troops were stationed in Mexico?

This is why Ukraine have been treated badly, and this comes down to the unnecessary need of both the EU and NATO to continuously expand.
or 'responsibility to protect' - as long as 'we' are 'responsible' it is ok, but god forbid Russians apply the same doctrine!
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Old 23.02.2022, 20:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is also a valid point "it's OK when we do it". Remember the Cuban missile crisis? Imagine if Russian troops were stationed in Mexico?

This is why Ukraine have been treated badly, and this comes down to the unnecessary need of both the EU and NATO to continuously expand.
Never mind "Russian troops were stationed in Mexico", they are stationed in Ukraine which is much too close to NATO and will provoke a reaction.
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Old 23.02.2022, 20:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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or 'responsibility to protect' - as long as 'we' are 'responsible' it is ok, but god forbid Russians apply the same doctrine!
The mental model "because A did something we should not criticize B for doing something else" is best used up to 6th grade, after that we tend to grow up and we are better able to differentiate between right and wrong on an individual basis. Time to grow up mikedragos! show us you can
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  #2469  
Old 23.02.2022, 20:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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. The reality of the situation is that if Vladimir Putin wanted, he could start the march westward and wouldn't meet any meaningful resistance until he was halfway across Germany. The defensive situation is that bad!
Shortly after the cold war ended a Russian general was asked in an interview where the first halt of the Red Army would have been.
His answer: "Antwerp"
The only difference to an invasion today would be that the Red Army would have to go through Poland, again. But the result would be pretty much the same.
And if they were to invade, it would be best on a Friday afternoon, then they could invade until Monday before getting any resistance, EU armies go home for the weekend and at least in Germany the Bundeswehr doesn´t get paid overtime and weekend work has to be approved in advance.
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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His answer: "Antwerp"
You are clumsily referring to the Seven Days to the River Rhine, a plan which was deemed unrealistic at the time by the Warsaw Pact and western analysts have long ago proclaimed it unrealistic.
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Shortly after the cold war ended a Russian general was asked in an interview where the first halt of the Red Army would have been.
His answer: "Antwerp"
I can literally picture the guy. Swollen, red eyes. Pribably lost his brother in Afghanistan. Consumed East German sausage and lukewarm beer for way to long. But still good for a tough story.
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are clumsily referring to the Seven Days to the River Rhine, a plan which was deemed unrealistic at the time by the Warsaw Pact and western analysts have long ago proclaimed it unrealistic.
"Western" analysts only claimed it to be unrealistic, the Red Army begged to differ.
Good job we never found out.
But, at the time, the Bundeswehr was a conscription army and at best seen as targets and to see if they could delay the Soviets while trying to die bravely.
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is there anything known whether Ukraine intends to defend the non-Russian/rebel controlled parts of these "people's republics"? Or are they digging at the borders of those, essentially conceding this to Russia?
Based on some social media and intelligence reports, I believe Ukraine has started to close out eastern fixed positions and is moving forces west. The danger the front line Ukranians face would be from the Russian forces enveloping them from the north and south.
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  #2474  
Old 23.02.2022, 21:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But, at the time, the Bundeswehr was a conscription army and at best seen as targets and to see if they could delay the Soviets while trying to die bravely.
The Red Army was also conscription based. In fact, even today roughly 1/3 of the Russian army is conscripts
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Shortly after the cold war ended a Russian general was asked in an interview where the first halt of the Red Army would have been.
His answer: "Antwerp"
The only difference to an invasion today would be that the Red Army would have to go through Poland, again. But the result would be pretty much the same.
And if they were to invade, it would be best on a Friday afternoon, then they could invade until Monday before getting any resistance, EU armies go home for the weekend and at least in Germany the Bundeswehr doesn´t get paid overtime and weekend work has to be approved in advance.
Given the USSR would have had a starting line that ran from Lübeck to Suhl that's quite believable. On the other hand the BRD had a decent defense force back then (as opposed to the joke it's become today) not to mention the thousands of US troops stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. Back then Europe was far more prepared to deal with the threat, as opposed to today where we're not.

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Yawn.
I'm sorry, are we still at the Russia bad everyone else good stage of debate? I fully stand with Ukraine and feel for the people that live there in the current situation and I think what Russia is doing is appalling behaviour, but I don't accept that NATO/EU are blameless in contributing to the current climate.
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Already a month old, but good perspectives from Tom Nichols (professor Naval War College) and Mark Hertling (former commander US army in Europe) on the RU/UA problem. Deep State Radio podcast.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4M4...urce=copy-link
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Old 23.02.2022, 21:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Given the USSR would have had a starting line that ran from Lübeck to Suhl that's quite believable. On the other hand the BRD had a decent defense force back then (as opposed to the joke it's become today) not to mention the thousands of US troops stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. Back then Europe was far more prepared to deal with the threat, as opposed to today where we're not.
I remember reading (I think "Der Spiegel") that the doctrine of the day called for the Bundeswehr to try and keep the Soviets occupied long enough for the Americans and the British to form a front on the Rhine, (not the French army by the way, they would have pulled back long ago)
Soviet non nuclear doctrine called for a modified Schleiffen plan as the Dutch and Belgian forces were seen as the weakest link.
Thing is if the Soviet Blitzkrieg would have gone on longer than a week and their objectives met, the allied nukes would have come out and would have been deployed in a line from Kiel to Munich.
Post WW2 Germany was always seen as a buffer by the allies and they would not have hesitated for a moment to laminate half of Germany if they were in any danger of defeat.

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I'm sorry, are we still at the Russia bad everyone else good stage of debate? I fully stand with Ukraine and feel for the people that live there in the current situation and I think what Russia is doing is appalling behaviour, but I don't accept that NATO/EU are blameless in contributing to the current climate.
I fully agree with you here, aggressive Nato (US) policy of expansion has brought us to this point where we are today.
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Old 23.02.2022, 22:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Google Traffic and corresponding social media reports indicate several multiple km "columns" of vehicles headed toward strategic Ukraine areas. (You really can see them on Google Traffic)

Also very recent reports of large power and TV outages in Donetsk.

Two US Air Force drones are flying Ukraine air space at the moment. This is something I haven't seen since this whole thing started.

All of the people and equipment that Russia has moved even closer to Ukraine in the past days cannot stay there indefinitely. They need to be rotated back into Russia or moved forward as there are no support facilities for them.

There is no information Ive come across witch indicates the situation has any chance of improving. Ill be pleasantly surprised if the night passes quietly.
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Old 23.02.2022, 22:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I remember reading (I think "Der Spiegel") that the doctrine of the day called for the Bundeswehr to try and keep the Soviets occupied long enough for the Americans and the British to form a front on the Rhine, (not the French army by the way, they would have pulled back long ago)
Soviet non nuclear doctrine called for a modified Schleiffen plan as the Dutch and Belgian forces were seen as the weakest link.
Thing is if the Soviet Blitzkrieg would have gone on longer than a week and their objectives met, the allied nukes would have come out and would have been deployed in a line from Kiel to Munich.
Post WW2 Germany was always seen as a buffer by the allies and they would not have hesitated for a moment to laminate half of Germany if they were in any danger of defeat.
My dad served in the East German army in the late 60s. He keeps telling the story that they were told they had 48 hours to live in the event of a major war between East and West. He was not infantry, but technical battalion in Air Force.
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Old 23.02.2022, 22:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Based on some social media and intelligence reports, I believe Ukraine has started to close out eastern fixed positions and is moving forces west. The danger the front line Ukranians face would be from the Russian forces enveloping them from the north and south.
Might be smart. At least one could argue this opens space for Putin to claim some victory and save face - if he wanted a way out of this mess. I know, Chamberlain and all, but UA is not going to hold this space anyway.
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