Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #2681  
Old 24.02.2022, 20:45
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
What a surprise, I thought everyone knows these examples. Yugoslavia of course was broken and bombed, Iraq invaded and Livia destroyed using fake charges, Ukrainian state turned into nationalist junta - all this against the wishes of their peoples.

Sounds like some people here call this "democracy"
Livia: The Scientifically Proven Menstrual Pain Off Switch
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #2682  
Old 24.02.2022, 20:47
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Up there over the fog
Posts: 5,065
Groaned at 781 Times in 515 Posts
Thanked 4,934 Times in 2,619 Posts
JackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Tony Clifton '' you hate the country, it's OK! ''

are you out of your mind? Many of us just hate what is beign done to that amazing country by Johnson and the curent Government. The Police Bill is real!
Reply With Quote
This user groans at JackieH for this post:
  #2683  
Old 24.02.2022, 20:50
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,317
Groaned at 429 Times in 307 Posts
Thanked 9,505 Times in 4,025 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Tony Clifton '' you hate the country, it's OK! ''

are you out of your mind? Many of us just hate what is beign done to that amazing country by Johnson and the curent Government. The Police Bill is real!
My Ukrainian friends and colleagues are very concerned about this, so thanks for bringing this up here. Again.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post:
  #2684  
Old 24.02.2022, 20:59
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,317
Groaned at 429 Times in 307 Posts
Thanked 9,505 Times in 4,025 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

How Ukraine could become a nuclear crisis
Chaos creates countless opportunities for mistakes.

By Tom Nichols

https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/...-2dd21830175c/

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a nuclear crisis. Yet. Concern about the role of nuclear weapons is perfectly understandable, however, now that a paranoid dictator has led Russia into a major war in the middle of Europe, attacking a country that shares a border with four of America’s NATO allies. A nuclear crisis is unlikely, but not impossible.

The Russians are going to defeat the overmatched Ukrainians, and they do not need nuclear weapons to do it. And while Putin is, in my view, unhinged and reckless, I see no indication that he is seeking war with the United States or NATO. Nonetheless, there are multiple paths to a dangerous nuclear confrontation that could embroil Moscow and Washington in a situation neither of them expects or wants.

The least likely occasion for a nuclear crisis would be if Russian forces directly and intentionally threatened NATO territory. All of the Atlantic Alliance, including the United States and its nuclear arsenal, would be required to come to the aid of the nations in danger. This is the doomsday scenario that NATO was created to prevent, and it would only come about if Putin were seized by an even greater madness than the one driving him to war in Ukraine. If Putin were to decide, for example, that his great crusade to roll back the collapse of the Soviet Union should include recapturing the Baltic states or driving NATO forces from Poland, he would effectively be declaring World War III and throwing the entire world into the abyss. But, again, there is no evidence that Putin intends to take this path.

A far more likely possibility would be a crisis arising from an accident. War is always a risky and unpredictable affair, even when one side is far stronger than the other. Human beings and their machines make mistakes, sometimes with dire results. In 2015, Turkey, a NATO nation, shot down a Russian jet that had strayed over the Turkish border. Two years ago, during the crisis between Iran and the United States after U.S. forces killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranians shot down a commercial airliner​​—from Ukraine, no less—in their own country. And let us not forget that the Russian forces now on the march belong to the same military that in 2014 managed to screw up and shoot down a commercial airline over Ukraine while claiming that they weren’t even there in the first place.

There are countless opportunities for such errors in the chaos now overtaking Ukraine. The Russians might shoot at NATO aircraft after misidentifying them. Or they might incorrectly believe that Russian aircraft have been attacked by NATO forces. They might suffer a misfire or a targeting error of some kind that puts Russian ordnance on NATO territory. Europe’s a crowded continent, and no place for a jumpy trigger finger, but accidents are an unavoidable part of warfare.

Any one of these mishaps could lead the Russians, or the United States, or both, to increase the alert status of their nuclear arsenals. This would mean that nuclear weapons and their crews—in some cases, with missiles that are already capable of being launched in fifteen or twenty minutes—would heighten their vigilance and readiness to proceed with their missions. Such alerts are rare, and for good reason: They move us one step closer to nuclear conflict.

Finally, there is the frightening possibility that Putin will increase the alert status of his nuclear forces for his own reasons, leaving the Americans no choice but to raise their alert status. The invasion of Ukraine was preceded by the Russian “Grom” (meaning “thunder”) drills, a regular exercise held by Russia’s strategic nuclear forces. The timing was no accident; Putin relies on Russia’s nuclear deterrent as one of its last claims to superpower status, and he could activate another such exercise, or call for a heightened alert condition, if he thinks things are going poorly for Russia.

Perhaps Russian forces, for example, end up taking more casualties than Putin expected, and he wants to blame the West rather than admit the incompetence or errors of his own commanders. He might then use nuclear signaling as a way of creating a narrative for his people that the West is somehow threatening Russia and that he is determined to stand up to Washington. Or he may be paranoid enough to believe that the U.S. and NATO are planning to send forces in to aid the Ukrainians. Or he may simply decide on such an alert merely to bare his teeth if he thinks it might stop the supply of arms and aid to Ukraine.

Such tit-for-tat signaling has happened before. In 1973, when the Soviet Union threatened to send troops into the middle of the Yom Kippur War to save Egyptian forces from destruction by the Israelis, the United States raised its level of nuclear preparedness, its “DEFCON,” or “Defense Condition,” as a way of indicating American resolve to prevent a Soviet intervention. The Soviets and the Americans for decades poisoned the air and oceans with nuclear tests that were meant to show strength and determination.

In an escalating alert-level scenario, each side will start watching the other intensely for evidence of an impending attack. All of the gremlins of error and miscalculation that are already on the loose in Ukraine now will become existential hazards until the crisis—which at that point will be about the United States and Russia, instead of Ukraine—is somehow sorted out.

None of this—we must hope—is likely. And it is needlessly anxiety-producing, even unhealthy, to spend too much time pondering the chances of a nuclear confrontation. But it is imprudent to pretend that the weapons do not exist at all. Nuclear weapons helped keep the peace in the first Cold War. Sadly, we must hope they will do so again in this new second Cold War declared by the Russian president.
Reply With Quote
  #2685  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:02
TonyClifton's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Hopefully soon to be Aargau
Posts: 2,283
Groaned at 1,101 Times in 630 Posts
Thanked 5,679 Times in 2,550 Posts
TonyClifton has a reputation beyond reputeTonyClifton has a reputation beyond reputeTonyClifton has a reputation beyond reputeTonyClifton has a reputation beyond reputeTonyClifton has a reputation beyond reputeTonyClifton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
The EU practically signed-off a blank cheque to Putin. Absolutely abhorrent and so shortsighted. Unofficially, SWIFT exclusion was blocked by Italy.
To come back to this, what message does this send out? Putin will do what he wants! If this isn't a red line, what on earth is?!
Reply With Quote
  #2686  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:03
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Up there over the fog
Posts: 5,065
Groaned at 781 Times in 515 Posts
Thanked 4,934 Times in 2,619 Posts
JackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Sounds a bit like Canada.
Groan Father Frost.
Reply With Quote
  #2687  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:07
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
To come back to this, what message does this send out? Putin will do what he wants! If this isn't a red line, what on earth is?!
It sends the message that we're at a Neville Chamberlain moment and Western Europe handed Ukraine on a platter to Putin. Eastern Europe has been fooled and disillusioned again by short-sighted Wester leaders. Really sad days for Ukraine and sad times ahead for the East.
Reply With Quote
  #2688  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:07
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Weak responses from weak leaders.
Weak?
The Russian stock market finished 33% down today, after initially losing half its value.
The Ruble sank to a record low causing the Russian Central Bank to step in.

US stock markets are mixed, some indices slightly up and others slightly down.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #2689  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:12
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Lausanne
Posts: 655
Groaned at 51 Times in 30 Posts
Thanked 787 Times in 413 Posts
dandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputation
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
...nationalist junta...

Khrushchev called, he wants his vocabulary back!
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank dandi for this useful post:
  #2690  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:21
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Either a good story or good propaganda?
"Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said on Thursday that a platoon of Russian soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainian military, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians.""

I remember similar stories circulating during the '56 uprising that the Russian soldiers were not told they were in Hungary.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #2691  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:31
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Either a good story or good propaganda?
"Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said on Thursday that a platoon of Russian soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainian military, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians.""

I remember similar stories circulating during the '56 uprising that the Russian soldiers were not told they were in Hungary.
Sounds legit. They thought they were there to pick up mushrooms and enjoy the coming spring.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #2692  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:31
leonie
 
Posts: n/a
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin calls Scholz:
— Hallo Olaf, we decided to recognize the independence of LNR, DNR and GDR.
— Why GDR? Where GDR? No way GDR!
— Fine. I thought that you would not object about the other two.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank for this useful post:
  #2693  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:33
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,560
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,653 Times in 12,911 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Ukraine got a bit too cocky a bit too fast, no doubt egged on by the spinless leaders of the West who are now talking about 'sanctions' as Russia is currently storming Ukraine.
"spinless"? Do you mean they are not writing propaganda to spin the story?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #2694  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:35
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Zurich
Posts: 413
Groaned at 83 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 276 Times in 155 Posts
Dandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthy
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

RFK: 80 million Americans could have died

It's a historic artifact from some of the darkest days of the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow reached a standoff that could have led to a nuclear doomsday.



In his book "Thirteen Days," Kennedy's brother, then-US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, said photos from US spy planes "indicated that the missiles were being directed at certain American cities, the estimate was that within a few minutes of their being fired 80 million Americans would be dead."



https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/u...ion/index.html
Reply With Quote
  #2695  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:36
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,317
Groaned at 429 Times in 307 Posts
Thanked 9,505 Times in 4,025 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Biden just spoke. Unfortunately relatively mild sanctions. He confirmed during the q&a that there wasn't agreement for SWIFT exclusuon in Europe. They didn't go all the way, Unfortunately. No energy, no SWIFT, no sanctions on Putin.

Moral of the story: economy at home beats security abroad
Let's be realistic. No sanctions would be harsh enough to make Russia withdraw at this point. It is not like Putin hadn't expected them. He did and chose to attack regardless. He doesn't care whether the Russian economy tanks. These sanctions will have an impact only in the longer term.
Reply With Quote
  #2696  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:37
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Zurich
Posts: 413
Groaned at 83 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 276 Times in 155 Posts
Dandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthy
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Diplomacy defuses the crisis


At the last minute, war was avoided, thanks to a bit of artful back-channel diplomacy.
Using go-between negotiators, President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev made a deal.
The US promised not to invade Cuba, and Khrushchev promised to withdraw the missiles.
Separately, the Kennedy administration and Moscow agreed to a secret deal -- which wasn't revealed until more than 25 years later -- calling for the United States to remove its obsolete American nuclear missiles from Turkey.
Reply With Quote
  #2697  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:38
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Zurich
Posts: 594
Groaned at 115 Times in 83 Posts
Thanked 1,664 Times in 871 Posts
John William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond reputeJohn William has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
the man who saved the world from nuclear war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

let's hope everything calms down soon
The man who saved the world according to Duetschland 83

Duetschland 83 - Opening
Reply With Quote
  #2698  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:42
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,317
Groaned at 429 Times in 307 Posts
Thanked 9,505 Times in 4,025 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Diplomacy defuses the crisis


At the last minute, war was avoided, thanks to a bit of artful back-channel diplomacy.
Using go-between negotiators, President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev made a deal.
The US promised not to invade Cuba, and Khrushchev promised to withdraw the missiles.
Separately, the Kennedy administration and Moscow agreed to a secret deal -- which wasn't revealed until more than 25 years later -- calling for the United States to remove its obsolete American nuclear missiles from Turkey.
Yes, Kennedy got played there. The Soviets built up missile sites mote or less openly and they got rewarded with the US pulling their missiles from Turkey which they had there long before the Soviets had anything on Cuba.
Reply With Quote
  #2699  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:43
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,321
Groaned at 242 Times in 176 Posts
Thanked 4,917 Times in 1,872 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Let's be realistic. No sanctions would be harsh enough to make Russia withdraw at this point. It is not like Putin hadn't expected them. He did and chose to attack regardless. He doesn't care whether the Russian economy tanks. These sanctions will have an impact only in the longer term.
Withdrawing was never the objective of sanctions, this would have been only with military campaigns, which were never on the table.

Strong sanctions would have achieved a different set of objectives. 1) further split any opposition internally as the oligarchs would be extremely unhappy if they are unable to access their quickly decreasing wealth
2) really limit Russia's ability to collect billions of USD/EUR from selling grain and energy and then feeding the army. This would also lead to even poorer population which would only increase pressure on Putin.

Both 1 and 2 would have served as a deterrent for future ventures. Right now, Putin's gamble seems to be paying off. He's not getting any serious push-back from the world and there's not much to make him stop and re-think.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #2700  
Old 24.02.2022, 21:44
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Zurich
Posts: 413
Groaned at 83 Times in 37 Posts
Thanked 276 Times in 155 Posts
Dandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthyDandy is considered unworthy
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia says Ukraine could turn into re-run of Cuban missile crisis



https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...is-2021-12-09/
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
crimea, russia, ukraine




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 3 (2 members and 1 guests)
dandi, kiwiguy08
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Jewish Refugees in Switzerland during World War II zanskar International affairs/politics 48 16.06.2010 15:58
Book about Switzerland in the second world war [recommendation?] telandy Other/general 14 18.06.2007 20:15


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 08:39.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0