Livia: The Scientifically Proven Menstrual Pain Off Switch

Tony Clifton '' you hate the country, it's OK! ''

are you out of your mind? Many of us just hate what is beign done to that amazing country by Johnson and the curent Government. The Police Bill is real!

My Ukrainian friends and colleagues are very concerned about this, so thanks for bringing this up here. Again.

How Ukraine could become a nuclear crisis
Chaos creates countless opportunities for mistakes.

By Tom Nichols

https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/...-2dd21830175c/

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a nuclear crisis. Yet. Concern about the role of nuclear weapons is perfectly understandable, however, now that a paranoid dictator has led Russia into a major war in the middle of Europe, attacking a country that shares a border with four of America’s NATO allies. A nuclear crisis is unlikely, but not impossible.

The Russians are going to defeat the overmatched Ukrainians, and they do not need nuclear weapons to do it. And while Putin is, in my view, unhinged and reckless, I see no indication that he is seeking war with the United States or NATO. Nonetheless, there are multiple paths to a dangerous nuclear confrontation that could embroil Moscow and Washington in a situation neither of them expects or wants.

The least likely occasion for a nuclear crisis would be if Russian forces directly and intentionally threatened NATO territory. All of the Atlantic Alliance, including the United States and its nuclear arsenal, would be required to come to the aid of the nations in danger. This is the doomsday scenario that NATO was created to prevent, and it would only come about if Putin were seized by an even greater madness than the one driving him to war in Ukraine. If Putin were to decide, for example, that his great crusade to roll back the collapse of the Soviet Union should include recapturing the Baltic states or driving NATO forces from Poland, he would effectively be declaring World War III and throwing the entire world into the abyss. But, again, there is no evidence that Putin intends to take this path.

A far more likely possibility would be a crisis arising from an accident. War is always a risky and unpredictable affair, even when one side is far stronger than the other. Human beings and their machines make mistakes, sometimes with dire results. In 2015, Turkey, a NATO nation, shot down a Russian jet that had strayed over the Turkish border. Two years ago, during the crisis between Iran and the United States after U.S. forces killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranians shot down a commercial airliner​​—from Ukraine, no less—in their own country. And let us not forget that the Russian forces now on the march belong to the same military that in 2014 managed to screw up and shoot down a commercial airline over Ukraine while claiming that they weren’t even there in the first place.

There are countless opportunities for such errors in the chaos now overtaking Ukraine. The Russians might shoot at NATO aircraft after misidentifying them. Or they might incorrectly believe that Russian aircraft have been attacked by NATO forces. They might suffer a misfire or a targeting error of some kind that puts Russian ordnance on NATO territory. Europe’s a crowded continent, and no place for a jumpy trigger finger, but accidents are an unavoidable part of warfare.

Any one of these mishaps could lead the Russians, or the United States, or both, to increase the alert status of their nuclear arsenals. This would mean that nuclear weapons and their crews—in some cases, with missiles that are already capable of being launched in fifteen or twenty minutes—would heighten their vigilance and readiness to proceed with their missions. Such alerts are rare, and for good reason: They move us one step closer to nuclear conflict.

Finally, there is the frightening possibility that Putin will increase the alert status of his nuclear forces for his own reasons, leaving the Americans no choice but to raise their alert status. The invasion of Ukraine was preceded by the Russian “Grom” (meaning “thunder”) drills, a regular exercise held by Russia’s strategic nuclear forces. The timing was no accident; Putin relies on Russia’s nuclear deterrent as one of its last claims to superpower status, and he could activate another such exercise, or call for a heightened alert condition, if he thinks things are going poorly for Russia.

Perhaps Russian forces, for example, end up taking more casualties than Putin expected, and he wants to blame the West rather than admit the incompetence or errors of his own commanders. He might then use nuclear signaling as a way of creating a narrative for his people that the West is somehow threatening Russia and that he is determined to stand up to Washington. Or he may be paranoid enough to believe that the U.S. and NATO are planning to send forces in to aid the Ukrainians. Or he may simply decide on such an alert merely to bare his teeth if he thinks it might stop the supply of arms and aid to Ukraine.

Such tit-for-tat signaling has happened before. In 1973, when the Soviet Union threatened to send troops into the middle of the Yom Kippur War to save Egyptian forces from destruction by the Israelis, the United States raised its level of nuclear preparedness, its “DEFCON,” or “Defense Condition,” as a way of indicating American resolve to prevent a Soviet intervention. The Soviets and the Americans for decades poisoned the air and oceans with nuclear tests that were meant to show strength and determination.

In an escalating alert-level scenario, each side will start watching the other intensely for evidence of an impending attack. All of the gremlins of error and miscalculation that are already on the loose in Ukraine now will become existential hazards until the crisis—which at that point will be about the United States and Russia, instead of Ukraine—is somehow sorted out.

None of this—we must hope—is likely. And it is needlessly anxiety-producing, even unhealthy, to spend too much time pondering the chances of a nuclear confrontation. But it is imprudent to pretend that the weapons do not exist at all. Nuclear weapons helped keep the peace in the first Cold War. Sadly, we must hope they will do so again in this new second Cold War declared by the Russian president.

To come back to this, what message does this send out? Putin will do what he wants! If this isn't a red line, what on earth is?!

Groan Father Frost.

It sends the message that we're at a Neville Chamberlain moment and Western Europe handed Ukraine on a platter to Putin. Eastern Europe has been fooled and disillusioned again by short-sighted Wester leaders. Really sad days for Ukraine and sad times ahead for the East.

Weak?
The Russian stock market finished 33% down today, after initially losing half its value.
The Ruble sank to a record low causing the Russian Central Bank to step in.

US stock markets are mixed, some indices slightly up and others slightly down.

Khrushchev called, he wants his vocabulary back!

Either a good story or good propaganda?
"Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova said on Thursday that a platoon of Russian soldiers surrendered to the Ukrainian military, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians.""

I remember similar stories circulating during the '56 uprising that the Russian soldiers were not told they were in Hungary.

Sounds legit. They thought they were there to pick up mushrooms and enjoy the coming spring.

Putin calls Scholz:
— Hallo Olaf, we decided to recognize the independence of LNR, DNR and GDR.
— Why GDR? Where GDR? No way GDR!
— Fine. I thought that you would not object about the other two.

"spinless"? Do you mean they are not writing propaganda to spin the story?

RFK: 80 million Americans could have died

It's a historic artifact from some of the darkest days of the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow reached a standoff that could have led to a nuclear doomsday.



In his book "Thirteen Days," Kennedy's brother, then-US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, said photos from US spy planes "indicated that the missiles were being directed at certain American cities, the estimate was that within a few minutes of their being fired 80 million Americans would be dead."



https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/u...ion/index.html

Let's be realistic. No sanctions would be harsh enough to make Russia withdraw at this point. It is not like Putin hadn't expected them. He did and chose to attack regardless. He doesn't care whether the Russian economy tanks. These sanctions will have an impact only in the longer term.

Diplomacy defuses the crisis


At the last minute, war was avoided, thanks to a bit of artful back-channel diplomacy.
Using go-between negotiators, President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev made a deal.
The US promised not to invade Cuba, and Khrushchev promised to withdraw the missiles.
Separately, the Kennedy administration and Moscow agreed to a secret deal -- which wasn't revealed until more than 25 years later -- calling for the United States to remove its obsolete American nuclear missiles from Turkey.

The man who saved the world according to Duetschland 83

Duetschland 83 - Opening

Yes, Kennedy got played there. The Soviets built up missile sites mote or less openly and they got rewarded with the US pulling their missiles from Turkey which they had there long before the Soviets had anything on Cuba.

Withdrawing was never the objective of sanctions, this would have been only with military campaigns, which were never on the table.

Strong sanctions would have achieved a different set of objectives. 1) further split any opposition internally as the oligarchs would be extremely unhappy if they are unable to access their quickly decreasing wealth
2) really limit Russia's ability to collect billions of USD/EUR from selling grain and energy and then feeding the army. This would also lead to even poorer population which would only increase pressure on Putin.

Both 1 and 2 would have served as a deterrent for future ventures. Right now, Putin's gamble seems to be paying off. He's not getting any serious push-back from the world and there's not much to make him stop and re-think.

Russia says Ukraine could turn into re-run of Cuban missile crisis



https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...is-2021-12-09/