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  #2981  
Old 26.02.2022, 12:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Back to the part of WW3, I remember several EF members have mentioned Revolut a lot. About 2 years ago, there was some news from Lithuania. At the time the links between the bank and Russian officials were local gossip, it was a non-issue. This week that Russia invaded Ukraine...Revolut may return to the spotlight. Protect your hard earned chuffs and take them somewhere else. Don't be a bagholder.

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Soon after Revolut got its banking licence, however, Lithuanian politics started muddying the waters. To grasp what happened next, it’s important to understand the politically sensitive relations between Lithuania and Russia. Lithuania was under the iron fist of the Russian empire for 123 years, and then part of the Soviet Union until its independence in 1990. Russia is therefore perceived as a constant threat to the country’s stability.

This is why claims that Revolut has links with the Russian government are causing controversy in Lithuania at the moment. Stasys Jakeliūnas, chair of the Lithuanian parliament’s budget and finance committee has accused Revolut of being involved with the Kremlin.
https://theconversation.com/revolut-...olution-111578
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  #2982  
Old 26.02.2022, 12:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is the realpolitik element, and why Europe has been so slow to react. What amount of harm and cost are voters willing to tolerate for a (not so) far away land?

We have to proceed, it's our duty. This has to be a red line.
I hear you. But unless Putin is toppled by his own people - which is a thin hope - this will be a very long game. Europe has to make itself less dependent on Russia in terms of energy and less dependent on the US militarily. This will take time and loads of money. Massively hurting the European economy by cutting Russian energy, agriculture, metals etc. supplies might be counterproductive. And again, I don't see Putin giving up on UA because of SWIFT. They are sitting on 650 bn USD reserves and can be relatively autonomous. I know how ugly this sounds, and how awfully alone UA is.
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  #2983  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

UK stops accepting visa applications from Ukrainians

Unless they already have family in the UK, link here

I learnt this as my eldest son (British Citizen) is with his Ukrainian girlfriend in Turkey and now looking for where to go next!

At least they are out of there, having left a couple of months ago.
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  #2984  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seeing footage of Russian vehicles stuck on Ukrainian roads because apparently they are out of fuel makes me wonder what geniuses run this army.
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  #2985  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am concerned that cutting them off SWIFT is going to hurt us more than it will hurt Putin. At least in the short term there will be massive disruptions. And I doubt it will alter what is happening in Ukraine over the next months.

I don't like what I write here, but I think I am realistic.
I think of it in terms of asymmetric pain. Yes, this will hurt Europe, but will disproportionately harder hit Russia. Over half of the Russian GDP is energy exports and denying them this revenue source hurts the oligarchs promptly and hardly. I do not expect a street revolution to bring down Putin, only the powerful generals and oligarchs can. Hitting them is hitting Putin.
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Old 26.02.2022, 13:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think of it in terms of asymmetric pain. Yes, this will hurt Europe, but will disproportionately harder hit Russia. Over half of the Russian GDP is energy exports and denying them this revenue source hurts the oligarchs promptly and hardly. I do not expect a street revolution to bring down Putin, only the powerful generals and oligarchs can. Hitting them is hitting Putin.
I agree with going hard after the oligarchs and their families and freezing all their money and their ability to be anywhere in the West.
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  #2987  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Now confirmed that Italy got a carve out for luxury goods not being part of any sanctions. Just imagine, placing the sale of Prada bags and Gucci shoes to Russian oligarchs over the sovereignty of Ukraine and the lives of her people. It's truly sickening.

Reports that only Germany, Cyprus and Hungary are holding out over Swift now, let's hope it happens soon.

EDIT: Sounds like Hungary not opposing Swift sanctions anymore!
Italy and Cyprus not opposing it anymore, Hungary is the only one still opposing..
Edit: Hungary was the last EU country to oppose this measure, they too came around.
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  #2988  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I suppose ru fail in UA will be a lesson for China as well for Nato
And if they don't fail?

Tom
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  #2989  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From Jason Hunter:

''I'm quite surprised at many a right wing UK commentator and journalist now calling Putin a "despot", "dictator", "maniac" etc.
These same people SUPPORTED Putins foreign policy funded by Russia to misinform the UK public to vote for Brexit to destabilise the EU.''

the hypocrisy of the far right is vast and beyond.
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  #2990  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:26
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Re: Ukraine- what can WE do here in CH to help?

The energy traders and trade financing could have the biggest, single impact, if they wished - and many are based in Switzerland.
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  #2991  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukraine: Woman confronts armed Russian soldier
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  #2992  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree with going hard after the oligarchs and their families and freezing all their money and their ability to be anywhere in the West.
Yes, but how do you inflict pain on them if their businesses continue to thrive? Yes, they won't be able to enjoy their yachts in Spain or have whatever assets they have frozen, but the underlying business, especially energy and less ag, will continue to deliver revenues.
SWIFT exclusion on it's own wont deliver magic, no question, but SWIFT and energy sanctions will essentially choke them and the only way to survive is going through their war chest (currently at around USD 650bn I believe)

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the hypocrisy of the far right is vast and beyond.
I would rarely give the benefit of doubt to any far-right politician, but in this case, they are in good company. Practically the whole of West Europe underestimated and never understood the real threat of Putin. For me the more shocking news is the complete lack of attention by Germany and Italy. They have no excuse and should be held accountable for this for years to come. They are showing to Putin that indeed there are cracks in Europe and he can always leverage these difference even after the war crimes he's committing as we speak.

Btw, ask yourselves the question, if this was a Middle Eastern or and African country, sanctions would have been brutal, quick and not even debated.
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  #2993  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Btw, ask yourselves the question, if this was a Middle Eastern or and African country, sanctions would have been brutal, quick and not even debated.
I’m generally with you on these issues except for this. It’s the nukes that keep the US out.
North Korea would have been squashed years ago, but for its puny nuclear program.
The nukes are the wild card that keeps NATO out of it.
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  #2994  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am concerned that cutting them off SWIFT is going to hurt us more than it will hurt Putin. At least in the short term there will be massive disruptions. And I doubt it will alter what is happening in Ukraine over the next months.

I don't like what I write here, but I think I am realistic.
Why? Swift already has several sanction protocols in place. It would be a simple move, but I doubt how effective it would be in the short term which is the inherent problem with sanctions as we know.

Keen to see what Cyprus will do as the island is absolutely heaving with Russians, particularly in Limassol, close the the Akrotiri air base.
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  #2995  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Btw, ask yourselves the question, if this was a Middle Eastern or and African country, sanctions would have been brutal, quick and not even debated.
OH lived much of his life in SA under sanctions and there were plenty of workarounds, which is why I don't have too much faith in them as a means to an end, but even with SA under apartheid, sanctions were the subject of much debate.
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Old 26.02.2022, 13:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I’m generally with you on these issues except for this. It’s the nukes that keep the US out.
I am talking about sanctions, not about military intervention

Btw, more good news pouring in.

Putin has managed to alienate his friend Orban, who now supports SWIFT exclusion, Finland is strongly suggesting it will be joining NATO and the French have captured a Russian ship for breach of sanctions (and it was not even carrying weapons)

Russia is turning itself into an economic desert and an internationally isolated player. Yesterday, I believe it was the Bulgarian Prime Minister who surprised with a excellent description of Russia. "On the economic map of the world, Russia is merely a small dot. It's essentially a gas station with nukes". Well done Putin!
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  #2997  
Old 26.02.2022, 13:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I’m generally with you on these issues except for this. It’s the nukes that keep the US out.
North Korea would have been squashed years ago, but for its puny nuclear program.
The nukes are the wild card that keeps NATO out of it.
Nobody wants to mention nukes here but since we are on it …

https://www.armscontrol.org/factshee...uclear-Weapons

The NATO and US involvement in this conflict could only mean an all-out war and nobody wants to get there, not even China.
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  #2998  
Old 26.02.2022, 14:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is the realpolitik element, and why Europe has been so slow to react. What amount of harm and cost are voters willing to tolerate for a (not so) far away land?

We have to proceed, it's our duty. This has to be a red line.
Sorry no, maybe you can afford to take a financial loss for someone thousands of kilometers away. (or you won’t be affected) Many people here do not have the financial security for that.
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Old 26.02.2022, 14:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukrainian army are holding up much better than I expected

Reports of Russians attacking neutral shipping.
"A Japanese-owned cargo ship "Namura Queen" was hit by a missile off the coast of Ukraine in the Black Sea on Friday, lightly injuring one crew member, an official from a Japanese marine transportation firm said Saturday. The tugboat 'P&O STAR' has come to the rescue.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry also reported that a different ship was shelled by a Russian warship on Friday. The vessel, "Millenial Spirit," was sailing under the Moldovan flag, and carried 600 tons of fuel oil and diesel onboard when it was struck. Two crew members were seriously injured as a result, according to the ministry. "
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Old 26.02.2022, 14:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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the hypocrisy of the far right is vast and beyond.
Just like the left then.

Tom
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