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  #3161  
Old 27.02.2022, 13:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My father and his neighbours built barricades, made Molotov's cocktails and are ready to welcome the Russian tanks.
I really don't know how to politely wish them what I really want to wish them so I'll just say hopefully they're healthy, smiling and VERY SUCCESSFUL after this is over!
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  #3162  
Old 27.02.2022, 13:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Regarding UK stopped issuing visas to UA:
https://twitter.com/katielfrank/stat...-EOpN63BW4u2pg

It is clear that the UK is only allowing Visas in cases of family reunification, and not for elderly parents either. But you have to be able to fullfil minimum salary requirement, etc, and all through all the red tape and wait. Ukrainians have been turned back trying to get on Eurostar at Gare du Nord in Paris, trying to reach family in the UK.

Please read the link below.

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/can-...asylum-policy/


''Wilson Solicitors London: sorry to report that @ukhomeoffice is refusing entry to Ukrainians at Paris Gare du Nord (Eurostar) seeking to join family in the UK because they don't have a Visa. And not being helped to apply for such a Visa'.

So those people have managed to get out somehow, and made the long journey in hope of finding safety with relatives in UK - and now turned on the street in Paris. And you ask about my 'agenda'???

Last edited by JackieH; 27.02.2022 at 13:54.
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  #3163  
Old 27.02.2022, 13:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My father and his neighbours built barricades, made Molotov's cocktails and are ready to welcome the Russian tanks.
I hope your family and the close ones stay safe through all this.
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  #3164  
Old 27.02.2022, 14:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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U.S. and Europe take aim at Russian central bank reserves, threatening blow to economy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...k-white-house/

Missed that yesterday. I think this is all good and needs to happen. I am getting a bit worried though that we are headed straight towards nuclear blackmail if/when Putin feels cornered. And I don't know I want to bet on Russian top military turning on Putin if we get to worst case.
Difficult to understand what central bank sanctions mean in practice.

Good article here.
"What does it mean that Russia “has” X or Y in foreign reserves? Where do these reserves exist?
The dollars, euros, and pounds owned by the Russian central bank—Russia may own them, but Russia does not control them. Almost all those hundreds of billions of Russian-owned assets are controlled by foreign central banks.
Russia’s reserves exist as notations in the records of central banks in the West, especially the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve."

So if Russia wants to deploy these reserves and then the ECB and the Fed say "no" then they are stuck in a bad place.
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  #3165  
Old 27.02.2022, 14:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Shortly after the cold war ended a Russian general was asked in an interview where the first halt of the Red Army would have been.
His answer: "Antwerp"
The only difference to an invasion today would be that the Red Army would have to go through Poland, again. But the result would be pretty much the same.
And if they were to invade, it would be best on a Friday afternoon, then they could invade until Monday before getting any resistance, EU armies go home for the weekend and at least in Germany the Bundeswehr doesn´t get paid overtime and weekend work has to be approved in advance.
"Seven days to the Rhine", in 4 days they have not even managed the 400Km to Kyiv without running out of diesel.
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  #3166  
Old 27.02.2022, 14:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They will certainly assess the risk of nuclear escalation. And it will not be assessed at zero, you are right.

What I meant is not an unannounced launch, but rather the likelihood of Russia - when cornered - saying "you calm down now or all cards are on the table", combined with a raising of the alert levels of the nuclear forces. Like the US did in Yom Kippur.

I admit I laughed at this risk a week ago. The bizarre thing is that the better UA is doing in its fight, the higher the escalation risk becomes. This is based on the assumption that Putin is not the type to cut his losses. If he is, then this becomes much better.
And here we go. Putin orders RU nuclear forces on combat alert.
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  #3167  
Old 27.02.2022, 14:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And here we go. Putin orders RU nuclear forces on combat alert.
Putin is insane
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  #3168  
Old 27.02.2022, 14:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And here we go. Putin orders RU nuclear forces on combat alert.


This is madness ! fortunately I still have my copy of the Protect & Survive
leaflet published by HMSO when Maggie Thatcher was PM back in the 1980's.

In the end I didn't need it as the only Brits that were attacked back in the 1980's were those living on the Falkland Islands, admittedly by another dictator, General Galtieri.
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  #3169  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Seven days to the Rhine", in 4 days they have not even managed the 400Km to Kyiv without running out of diesel.
The Red Army isn´t what it used to be it would seem and I´ll bet that the wargame scenarios will have been changed.
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  #3170  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Just now on Sky News, Ukraine and Russia agreed to negotiations on the Belarus Ukrainian border.
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  #3171  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Moscow reports that Ukraine agreed to talk to Russia in Gomel, Belarus.

For their peoples sake please let them stop fighting and start talking. This is madness and must be stopped.
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  #3172  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And here we go. Putin orders RU nuclear forces on combat alert.
Aaaand America puts it´s nuclear forces on high alert, Russia responds by alerting even higher, and the US ramps it up a notch. Russia goes to gas mark 11...

Are we really going to slide into a nuke war?
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  #3173  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Just a few days ago, some EF members laughed at me for being concerned.

I am certainly not laughing now, perhaps they still find it funny

JW, I threw away my copies when we moved here in 2009 - safe in the knowledge we would never need them.

Anyone emptying the booze and baked beans from their bunker?
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  #3174  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Aaaand America puts it´s nuclear forces on high alert, Russia responds by alerting even higher, and the US ramps it up a notch. Russia goes to gas mark 11...

Are we really going to slide into a nuke war?
I would hope Biden doesn't do that, and I don't think there is any point in it.

But I feel sick in my stomach.
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  #3175  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I would hope Biden doesn't do that, and I don't think there is any point in it.

But I feel sick in my stomach.
It´s nothing to do with Biden, these are the MAD mechanisms kicking in.
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  #3176  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And here we go. Putin orders RU nuclear forces on combat alert.
It's the End of the World As We Know It ! - by REM


It's the End of the World As We Know It ! by the pop group REM
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Old 27.02.2022, 15:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Aaaand America puts it´s nuclear forces on high alert, Russia responds by alerting even higher, and the US ramps it up a notch. Russia goes to gas mark 11...

Are we really going to slide into a nuke war?
America doesn’t put their nuclear forces on high alert. Putin doesn’t like the sanctions and the statements.

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty."
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  #3178  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russian MoD: Ukraine's Forces Use Banned Phosphorus Munitions Outside Kiev

https://sputniknews.com/20220227/rus...093422868.html


Will they use this as a pretence to use nuclear weapons?
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  #3179  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian MoD: Ukraine's Forces Use Banned Phosphorus Munitions Outside Kiev

https://sputniknews.com/20220227/rus...093422868.html


Will they use this as a pretence to use nuclear weapons?
Well they can ramp up a notch with thermobaric weapons before the big ones.
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  #3180  
Old 27.02.2022, 15:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It seems that Sting was wrong:
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