A neutral country is not free to join NATO

Cannot they neutralize and create there another international enclave with jobs and safe banking system for everyone being happy like in Switzerland?

28-Feb-2022 19:11:38

SHELL INTERNATIONAL B V ("RDS.A,RDS.B-N") Intends to Exit Equity Partnerships held with Gazprom Entities

The Board of Shell plc ("Shell") today announced its intention to exit
its joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities, including its 27.5
percent stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50
percent stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy
venture. Shell also intends to end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2
pipeline project.

"We are shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, which we deplore,
resulting from a senseless act of military aggression which threatens
European security," said Shell's chief executive officer, Ben van Beurden.

Shell's staff in Ukraine and other countries has been working together
to manage the company's response to the crisis locally. Shell will also
work with aid partners and humanitarian agencies to help in the relief
effort.

"Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction," said van
Beurden. "We cannot - and we will not - stand by. Our immediate focus is
the safety of our people in Ukraine and supporting our people in Russia.
In discussion with governments around the world, we will also work through
the detailed business implications, including the importance of secure
energy supplies to Europe and other markets, in compliance with relevant
sanctions."

At the end of 2021, Shell had around $3 billion in non-current assets
in these ventures in Russia. We expect that the decision to start the
process of exiting joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities will
impact the book value of Shell's Russia assets and lead to impairments.

Shell's Powering Progress strategy and financial framework remain
unchanged. We reiterate our progressive dividend policy and intent to
distribute 20-30 percent of CFFO to shareholders in the form of dividends
and share buybacks while targeting a strong balance sheet with long-term AA
credit metrics. We stepped up our distributions by announcing an $8.5
billion share buyback programme for the first half of 2022, and we expect
to increase our dividend per share by 4 percent for the first quarter of
2022.

Notes to Editors:
In 2021, Shell share Adjusted Earnings from Sakhalin Energy JV and Salym JV
were $0.7 billion.

Sakhalin-2
Shell has a 27.5 percent interest in Sakhalin-2, the joint venture with
Gazprom, an integrated oil and gas project located on Sakhalin island.
Other ownership interests are Gazprom 50%, Mitsui 12.5%, Mitsubishi 10%.

Salym
Shell has a 50 percent interest in Salym Petroleum Development N.V., a
joint venture with Gazprom Neft that is developing the Salym fields in the
Khanty Mansiysk Autonomous District of western Siberia.

Nord Stream 2
Shell is one of five energy companies which have each committed to provide
financing and guarantees for up to 10% of the estimated (euro)9.5 billion
total cost of the project.

Gydan
A joint venture With Gazprom Neft (Shell interest 50%) to explore and
develop blocks in the Gydan peninsula, in north-western Siberia. The
project is in the exploration phase, with no production.

And this is the joke of the day:

"Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's working trip to Switzerland has been canceled due to an “unprecedented” airspace ban, imposed by several EU countries as a response to the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Lavrov was due to attend the session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on March 1, as well as to give a speech at the Conference on Disarmament.

“FM Lavrov's visit to Geneva for the session of the UN HRC and the Conference on Disarmament has been canceled due to an unprecedented ban on his flight in the airspace of a number of EU countries that have imposed anti-Russian sanctions,” the Russian mission in Geneva said on Twitter."

https://www.rt.com/russia/550872-lav...eled-airspace/

btw, quite curious now, if a Russian ends up in Europe with a Russian issued VISA credit card, can he pay for his hotel or he'll be declined?

This is quite funny. I came across it on Twitter and quite apt on this forum:

Switzerland was officially tasked by Zelinski to organise a piece conference in Switzerland between RU and UA, to be held asap (like, later this week). Preliminary talks were expected today and tomorrow during the HRC conference in Geneva.

No such talks unless Lavrov is allowed to fly over EE and into CH.
No such conferene in CH unless the country stays neutral until then, RU wouldn't accept holding it in a sanctioning aka hostile country.

Apparently that fell through sometime this afternoon. Hence Putins's communiquè on the conditions, Lavrov's communiqué you quoted, and CH's decision to join the sanctions today.

Sometimes things are a bit more complicated than they appear at a glance.

Don't read this if you are prone to depression. But amid all the hype about the overwhelming sanctions efforts and the heroic Ukrainian response, there are big warning signs that this is not getting better:

Russian attacks are getting heavier and undoubtedly more accepting of (or even going for) civilian casualties. As great and inspiring the picture of civilians with Molotov cocktails are - this means also risk of random civilians just being shot at by the Russians.

The Ukrainian fighting spirit is impressive and they are the bravest people. The do remarkably well, and understandably are in no spirit to give up or offer concessions. Which makes it difficult for Russia to negotiate and save face.

Putin's reaction - if we take the Kremlin statement of the Macron call seriously - is so far to insist on the "security interests", thereby not moving one iota from his initial position formulated last week. And why would he? He has only lost so far, and before any meaningful negotiations will want to recover some position of strength. He thinks he can achieve this by taking Charkiv and/or Kyiv by brutal force.

On top, he issued a maybe not totally surprising, but quite early order to increase the nuclear alert level. We have discussed how this is difficult to interpret - but there is a dangerous slope going from initial hopes of the Ukrainians breaking downs to using cluster munitions to using thermobaric weapons (which are already deployed in UA if I understand correctly) to ... going tactical nuclear. This in his logic might achieve breaking the Ukrainian resistance and having the West hit the brakes on any further engagement in fear of this getting totally out of hand.

The jubilant tone of some, calling for NATO to establish no-fly zones over UA or already asking for NATO intervention in case of coming RU atrocities plays right into this.

Look at Putin how is sitting 15m away from everybody, how he is publicly shitting on his "closest advisors", and how he is taking about UA nazis and drug-traffickers. Seems outright paranoid. The claim that he is supersmart and outplaying everyone seems debunked by seeing his totally wrong calculation with UA. At best he is a high risk poker player.

Bottom line: Plenty of downside here. Unless you want to bet on Putin throwing the towel or being overthrown, there needs to be an exit route for Putin that he can accept.

Just propaganda, Russia has a fleet of presidential aircraft which are exempt from sanctions.

He can pay with the card. But the next bill won‘t be paid and then the card will eventually be blocked.

Better late than never
"FIFA, the global governing body of soccer, imposed on Monday an indefinite ban on Russia from participating in all competitions.

The decision came amid international pressure to ban Russia from soccer's World Cup, which is to take place later this year in Qatar."

I am fully aware there is more to it - but the thought of this asshole speaking at a disarmament conference made me laugh.

I agree. There's no scenario in which Putin simply decides "right, comrades, lets pack and go home". As things stand now, his only way forward is to escalate the conflict which means more civilian deaths, more destruction. This is coming, and judging by the now famous huge 5km long column of hardware, gasoline and supply which just reach Kiev, it could start pretty soon,

I guess the only exit route is Putin choosing and leaving a successor that will never prosecute him. But, even before invading Ukraine on 2022, was this a real possibility?

I guess the options now are being overthrown by the army command or a bloodthirsty mob. Putin will literally fight to death to avoid any of these options. Ukraine, the EU, the US and anyone else are too far away. The problems are much closer to Mr. Dictator. As long as the army supports the invasion he avoids being overthrown. The mob of protesters is a much lesser risk, for now.

Gold is only useful when you can sell it.
Maybe they can sell it for yuan but how is that better for Russia than buying stuff with rubles, the yuan is also not a sought after currency.

Without Swift then how can China, or any other country, pay Russia for their gold anyway?
As long as 40% of the world’s international payments are in dollars, setting up a new clearing facility for yuan, whose share is 3%, is not really attractive.

China has readied its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). CIPS settles international claims in yuan but since 2016, it has used SWIFT as its communications channel so is not yet a viable alternative to Swift.

BTW, Russian gross domestic product was roughly $1.5 trillion in 2020, making its economy slightly smaller than the state of New York’s.

Exactly. He will never resign. He will never let a mob get close to him. So this leaves some form of army/siloviki coup. Not sure that is a bet I would want to take. That is why I am saying, there might be a rationale for him to escalate in such a way that the West will just back off.

And North Korea's GDP is estimated at 19 billion USD. Yet nobody dares to take Kim Jong Un out. I know, China and all - but you get the picture?

The International Tennis Federation (ITF) announced the organization will not hold any events in Belarus this year "due to Russian aggression against Ukraine." The announcement comes on the heels of the tennis governing body's decision to indefinitely cancel all events in Russia.

I wonder if that will change anything for Daniil Medvedev?

I'm also wondering what Putin hopes to get out of this and what paths there are to rolling back sanctions.

I guess he would want to get:

1. Recognition of Crimea as Russian
2. Recognition of L+D as independent states
3. Removal of current government to be replaced with a friendly government
4. Some way to ensure that these new territories and Russia itself are protected against future attacks
5. Roll back of all sanctions

Honestly, if he manages to negotiate all of that, his negotiation team should get a super bonus and pay raise!

1. I'm surprised hasn't happened already
2. I guess maybe a compromise where the Minsk accords are implemented fully
3. I guess he's in the process of doing
4. Were already part of the failed discussions with NATO.
5. What can Russia offer to achieve this?

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The Germans are slowly waking up…including both the frothing right wingers and the left wing nut-jobs.
That ex German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder is still prostituting hisself doesn’t come as a surprise though.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...-their-naivety