I don't see a way for him to escalate and the West backing off, it's now a stand-off with too much at stake. Neither side will back off, there needs to be some way to deescalate and equally important a way for him to exit by saving some face and possibly assurance he won't end up in the Hague.

I would say there is close to zero chance of the West backing off until Putin ceases his attack and retreats. Even when he does that and things de-escalate, the sanctions and pressure will stay for a while. Putin crossed a huge line in the sand this time and Russia is going to pay for that for decades.

EDIT - Also I think Putin will be gone within a year or two, because significant public and political sentiment will be against him at home and and overwhelming diplomatic sentiment against him abroad. I think that the decision will be made by many powerful people within Russia that the only way the country can hope to recover from this crisis is with new and more moderate leadership that can slowly make reparations with the world.

In my ideal fantasy outcome, Navalny will be released from prison and elected into power to take Russia out of the dark ages. However, that may be far too much to hope for.

With backing off I mean for the West to let the Russian do in UA what they want to do. Maybe supply weapons still, certainly keep sanctions - but no intervention. Maybe backing off was the wrong term.

That would be the ideal. Putin´s grip on power and control over the state is immense. Remember back when the militaries staged a coup against Gorbachev? That didn´t work too well.

Or, he can organize a false flag missile attack from UA, and retaliate with nukes.

Tom

What is your point?
What is the link between North Korea and the Ukraine invasion?

What is "the picture"?

North Korea has had similar sanctions as Russia has now for a long time.

Nobody "dares to take Putin out" either.

Nuclear deterrence. I thought that was obvious.

Maybe I am missing something, but how are these situations comparable?

If Putin is not around in a year or two then it could only be by coup, and the last successful coup in Russia was in 1917

This only shows that everyone will be affected by Putin's madness including people who have absolutely nothing to do with this conflict. And there are or will be tragedies on the Russian side too..(of course I am not necessarily referring to him now..)

I'm sorry. This is a major war with the potential to become a nuclear crisis. Who gives a f--- about tennis or judo symbolisms?

He lives in a bunker like Hitler and probably will die like Hitler.....do you see any other "exit" from this madness that he created, slammer?

Agree, these are rare and unlikely in general.

My 2 cents on this are that a lot will depend on whether Putin will be ultimately successful in Ukraine after the inevitable escalation that is coming sooner rather than later. If he somehow manages to conquer Ukraine and forces Zelenski's government into exile, he'll probably be able to consolidate power at least until next election in 2024 irrelevant of sanctions.

If this turns into a guerilla warfare and drags on for more than a few short months, the combination of factors against him will be too much and mass protests on the street triggered by poverty and hurt pride (HUGELY important for the Russian psyche) could turn the generals and oligarchs against him.

There's an uglier one: Gaddafi style.

Hopefully less than Putin doing the same. Yet there will be no peace treaty without him doing just that.

Quite chilling assessment:

"From a purely military/tactical standpoint, Russia has the manpower and firepower to take Kyiv. No question," said an American source familiar with the intelligence. "And no matter how much resistance the Ukrainians put up."

Good article, optimism seems to be running high now, but objective expert analysis seems to be a bit more cautious, to say the least.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/p...ars/index.html

There is not a "potential to become a nuclear crisis", this is just Putin trying to distract from his incompetent army. No other nuclear power is taking him seriously or raising their readiness levels.

Incredible failure of the red army on their first day to fail to destroy Ukraine’s air defenses, now after five days they cannot even occupy Kyiv only 400 km, a half day drive, from the Russian border.

I hope you are right, but I am afraid you are just naive.

Depends if he is acting rational or if this is a sign of insanity.
This is not Stalin´s Russia and Putin doesn´t command the same level of abject fear that would stop anybody from any kind of intervention. So I think that if he were to be found out of his mind then he would be removed, quietly.
As for him being rational, which I think he is, why would the Duma want to have him removed? As long as he upholds the status quo of those in power and a war every now and then to keep the military happy. Bar a sweeping revolution that I don´t see on the horizon, he will keep his power and install the infrastructure to ensure that Putinism will be around for a long time.

__________________
Back in Bavaria, god´s own belly button.

same analytics predicted Kyiv will fall in 2 hours?