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  #3361  
Old 28.02.2022, 20:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That is why I am saying, there might be a rationale for him to escalate in such a way that the West will just back off.
I don't see a way for him to escalate and the West backing off, it's now a stand-off with too much at stake. Neither side will back off, there needs to be some way to deescalate and equally important a way for him to exit by saving some face and possibly assurance he won't end up in the Hague.
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  #3362  
Old 28.02.2022, 20:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I would say there is close to zero chance of the West backing off until Putin ceases his attack and retreats. Even when he does that and things de-escalate, the sanctions and pressure will stay for a while. Putin crossed a huge line in the sand this time and Russia is going to pay for that for decades.

EDIT - Also I think Putin will be gone within a year or two, because significant public and political sentiment will be against him at home and and overwhelming diplomatic sentiment against him abroad. I think that the decision will be made by many powerful people within Russia that the only way the country can hope to recover from this crisis is with new and more moderate leadership that can slowly make reparations with the world.

In my ideal fantasy outcome, Navalny will be released from prison and elected into power to take Russia out of the dark ages. However, that may be far too much to hope for.

Last edited by Chuff; 28.02.2022 at 21:05.
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  #3363  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

With backing off I mean for the West to let the Russian do in UA what they want to do. Maybe supply weapons still, certainly keep sanctions - but no intervention. Maybe backing off was the wrong term.
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  #3364  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I would say there is close to zero chance of the West backing off until Putin ceases his attack and retreats. Even when he does that and things de-escalate, the sanctions and pressure will stay for a while.

Putin crossed a huge line in the sand this time and Russia is going to pay for that for decades.

EDIT - Also I think Putin will be gone within a year or two, because significant public and diplomatic sentiment will be against him at home and abroad and I think that the decision will be made by many powerful people with Russia that the only way the country can hope to recover from that is with new and more moderate leadership.
That would be the ideal. Putinīs grip on power and control over the state is immense. Remember back when the militaries staged a coup against Gorbachev? That didnīt work too well.
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't see a way for him to escalate and the West backing off, it's now a stand-off with too much at stake. Neither side will back off, there needs to be some way to deescalate and equally important a way for him to exit by saving some face and possibly assurance he won't end up in the Hague.
Or, he can organize a false flag missile attack from UA, and retaliate with nukes.

Tom
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And North Korea's GDP is estimated at 19 billion USD. Yet nobody dares to take Kim Jong Un out. I know, China and all - but you get the picture?
What is your point?
What is the link between North Korea and the Ukraine invasion?

What is "the picture"?

North Korea has had similar sanctions as Russia has now for a long time.

Nobody "dares to take Putin out" either.
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  #3367  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What is your point?
What is the link between North Korea and the Ukraine invasion?

What is "the picture"?

North Korea has had similar sanctions as Russia has now for a long time.

Nobody "dares to take Putin out" either.
Nuclear deterrence. I thought that was obvious.
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  #3368  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That would be the ideal. Putinīs grip on power and control over the state is immense. Remember back when the militaries staged a coup against Gorbachev? That didnīt work too well.
Maybe I am missing something, but how are these situations comparable?
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Maybe I am missing something, but how are these situations comparable?
If Putin is not around in a year or two then it could only be by coup, and the last successful coup in Russia was in 1917
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  #3370  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The International Tennis Federation (ITF) announced the organization will not hold any events in Belarus this year "due to Russian aggression against Ukraine." The announcement comes on the heels of the tennis governing body's decision to indefinitely cancel all events in Russia.

I wonder if that will change anything for Daniil Medvedev?
This only shows that everyone will be affected by Putin's madness including people who have absolutely nothing to do with this conflict. And there are or will be tragedies on the Russian side too..(of course I am not necessarily referring to him now..)
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  #3371  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I'm sorry. This is a major war with the potential to become a nuclear crisis. Who gives a f--- about tennis or judo symbolisms?
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  #3372  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If Putin is not around in a year or two then it could only be by coup, and the last successful coup in Russia was in 1917
He lives in a bunker like Hitler and probably will die like Hitler.....do you see any other "exit" from this madness that he created, slammer?
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  #3373  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If Putin is not around in a year or two then it could only be by coup, and the last successful coup in Russia was in 1917
Agree, these are rare and unlikely in general.

My 2 cents on this are that a lot will depend on whether Putin will be ultimately successful in Ukraine after the inevitable escalation that is coming sooner rather than later. If he somehow manages to conquer Ukraine and forces Zelenski's government into exile, he'll probably be able to consolidate power at least until next election in 2024 irrelevant of sanctions.

If this turns into a guerilla warfare and drags on for more than a few short months, the combination of factors against him will be too much and mass protests on the street triggered by poverty and hurt pride (HUGELY important for the Russian psyche) could turn the generals and oligarchs against him.
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  #3374  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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He lives in a bunker like Hitler and probably will die like Hitler.....do you see any other "exit" from this madness that he created, slammer?
There's an uglier one: Gaddafi style.
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  #3375  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am fully aware there is more to it - but the thought of this asshole speaking at a disarmament conference made me laugh.
Hopefully less than Putin doing the same. Yet there will be no peace treaty without him doing just that.
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  #3376  
Old 28.02.2022, 21:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quite chilling assessment:

"From a purely military/tactical standpoint, Russia has the manpower and firepower to take Kyiv. No question," said an American source familiar with the intelligence. "And no matter how much resistance the Ukrainians put up."

Good article, optimism seems to be running high now, but objective expert analysis seems to be a bit more cautious, to say the least.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/p...ars/index.html
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm sorry. This is a major war with the potential to become a nuclear crisis. Who gives a f--- about tennis or judo symbolisms?
There is not a "potential to become a nuclear crisis", this is just Putin trying to distract from his incompetent army. No other nuclear power is taking him seriously or raising their readiness levels.

Incredible failure of the red army on their first day to fail to destroy Ukraine’s air defenses, now after five days they cannot even occupy Kyiv only 400 km, a half day drive, from the Russian border.
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There is not a "potential to become a nuclear crisis", this is just Putin trying to distract from his incompetent army. No other nuclear power is taking him seriously or raising their readiness levels.

Incredible failure of the red army on their first day to fail to destroy Ukraine’s air defenses, now after five days they cannot even occupy Kyiv only 400 km, a half day drive, from the Russian border.
I hope you are right, but I am afraid you are just naive.
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Old 28.02.2022, 21:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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He lives in a bunker like Hitler and probably will die like Hitler.....do you see any other "exit" from this madness that he created, slammer?
Depends if he is acting rational or if this is a sign of insanity.
This is not Stalinīs Russia and Putin doesnīt command the same level of abject fear that would stop anybody from any kind of intervention. So I think that if he were to be found out of his mind then he would be removed, quietly.
As for him being rational, which I think he is, why would the Duma want to have him removed? As long as he upholds the status quo of those in power and a war every now and then to keep the military happy. Bar a sweeping revolution that I donīt see on the horizon, he will keep his power and install the infrastructure to ensure that Putinism will be around for a long time.
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  #3380  
Old 28.02.2022, 22:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Quite chilling assessment:

"From a purely military/tactical standpoint, Russia has the manpower and firepower to take Kyiv. No question," said an American source familiar with the intelligence. "And no matter how much resistance the Ukrainians put up."

Good article, optimism seems to be running high now, but objective expert analysis seems to be a bit more cautious, to say the least.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/p...ars/index.html
same analytics predicted Kyiv will fall in 2 hours?
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