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  #321  
Old 19.04.2014, 21:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Unfortunately I have to agree. US might be unfortunately the only ally, but after their "reset with Russia" and "pivot to Asia", not sure if/when their interest aligns with Eastern Europe countries.
Now, when Germany's chancellor displays a portrait of Catherine the Great, Siemens ceo meets Putin just after Crimea is taken, and Schroeder presides over Nord Stream gas pipeline - it is more than just Real Politik. F.....g West.
Whatever we may say about Russia, Katharina II clearly was one of the most impresssive country leaders in history.

My question rather is what Mr Putin really wants.
Influence in Ukraine ? he already HAS influence there
take over the Eastern Ukraine ? maybe ... I don't know
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  #322  
Old 19.04.2014, 22:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The analysis in the western media is pretty much always the same. Putin=Imperialism, Imperialism=Evil, ergo Putin=Evil. Nobody sees Nato as an imperialistic tool, I can understand that, but nobody accepts that it is one in a post-soviet analysis. Putin is the first to understand in Moscow that the western's goal is to not only isolate Russia to to make it a small country like any small European power (France, UK, Germany etc.), which is not the way the Russians see themselves. The second Putin period is a long intense populistic reconquistad. If you want to know how he did it, look an the Bush neo-con movement and replace american patriotic ingredients by the russian counterpart. Even the Antigay laws are a tool for intern use and create a political siciocultural border between Europe and Russia. It's a rhetorical tool that became legal, not an actual opinion that became political. The same as the very efficient anti-NGO measures. The more those actions are advertised, the more they become symbolic and are transformed into political fuel for anti western emotions. See Bush area with a different Feindbild. Even the tactics used now in Ukraine are what the US did some decades ago to destabilize pro soviet countries (Angola, Nicaragua, Afganistan etc.) but of course, it is not linked contentwise, ideologically. It's just shared methodology on very different terrains.
One can be very anti Russia like me because of neo-con politics of the second Putin area, it doesn't change anything to the fact that since the first Putin area, Russia is a different country for the better. Ukraine never had a big cleaning, Maidan was nothing else than yet another attempt at it. Didn't work, again. The orange revolution got confiscated by corruption from their own people and this one has caused a reaction because it was (partially) real nazism and real regionalist nationalism. Analyse the use of the words "fascists" and "terrorists" in the discourse of both sides, you'll see that the revolution caused a reaction that itself caused a terror. It's a classical scheme of things. You can't blame reactionists when there is a revolution, there is ALWAYS a reaction after a revolution. The form it takes depends on who is revolutionary. In Kiev, it was a mix of sweet democratic nationalosm and plain nazi dictatorial fascism. No wonder the reaction is heavy!
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  #323  
Old 20.04.2014, 09:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The analysis in the western media is pretty much always the same. Putin=Imperialism, Imperialism=Evil, ergo Putin=Evil. Nobody sees Nato as an imperialistic tool, I can understand that, but nobody accepts that it is one in a post-soviet analysis. Putin is the first to understand in Moscow that the western's goal is to not only isolate Russia to to make it a small country like any small European power (France, UK, Germany etc.), which is not the way the Russians see themselves. The second Putin period is a long intense populistic reconquistad. If you want to know how he did it, look an the Bush neo-con movement and replace american patriotic ingredients by the russian counterpart. Even the Antigay laws are a tool for intern use and create a political siciocultural border between Europe and Russia. It's a rhetorical tool that became legal, not an actual opinion that became political. The same as the very efficient anti-NGO measures. The more those actions are advertised, the more they become symbolic and are transformed into political fuel for anti western emotions. See Bush area with a different Feindbild. Even the tactics used now in Ukraine are what the US did some decades ago to destabilize pro soviet countries (Angola, Nicaragua, Afganistan etc.) but of course, it is not linked contentwise, ideologically. It's just shared methodology on very different terrains.
One can be very anti Russia like me because of neo-con politics of the second Putin area, it doesn't change anything to the fact that since the first Putin area, Russia is a different country for the better. Ukraine never had a big cleaning, Maidan was nothing else than yet another attempt at it. Didn't work, again. The orange revolution got confiscated by corruption from their own people and this one has caused a reaction because it was (partially) real nazism and real regionalist nationalism. Analyse the use of the words "fascists" and "terrorists" in the discourse of both sides, you'll see that the revolution caused a reaction that itself caused a terror. It's a classical scheme of things. You can't blame reactionists when there is a revolution, there is ALWAYS a reaction after a revolution. The form it takes depends on who is revolutionary. In Kiev, it was a mix of sweet democratic nationalosm and plain nazi dictatorial fascism. No wonder the reaction is heavy!
But much of the media DOES see NATO as negative and as a threat

The containment program of Harry Truman started to work when Russia had become a "medium-power" like Britain and France. Putin wants to get Russia back to a position of a superpower again, an ambitious intention indeed
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  #324  
Old 20.04.2014, 11:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

When finally Germans have have their A bomb we will be back where we already were.
Germany is all against containing Russia now, even if they have the biggest leverage right now.

But they can't leave their destiny to their allies, especially if Germany's interests seem to align with Russia's, then who is whose ally after all?
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  #325  
Old 20.04.2014, 17:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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When finally Germans have have their A bomb we will be back where we already were.
Germany is all against containing Russia now, even if they have the biggest leverage right now.

But they can't leave their destiny to their allies, especially if Germany's interests seem to align with Russia's, then who is whose ally after all?
There at present is nothing indicating a wish of Germany for nuclear weapons

Germany and Russia may have some common interests, and Germany may agree to Russia taking over WhiteRussia and eastern Poland, but only if Germany could get (back) Western Poland. In regard to Slowakia, Romania and Ukraine, the German interests are exactly contrary to the ones of Russia.
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  #326  
Old 20.04.2014, 21:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seems the anti Russians are forming armed militias, not surprising unfortunately....
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  #327  
Old 21.04.2014, 00:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems the anti Russians are forming armed militias, not surprising unfortunately....
Ukraine now has to fear a full onslaught of Russia against Ukraine. So them preparing to defend themselves as well as possible. The aim sure is to make it clear to Russia that Russia cannot capture that country in an afternoon
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  #328  
Old 21.04.2014, 00:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukraine now has to fear a full onslaught of Russia against Ukraine. So them preparing to defend themselves as well as possible. The aim sure is to make it clear to Russia that Russia cannot capture that country in an afternoon
Well I think Russia will capture the country in an afternoon if they want to do that but their problem will be keeping it. It could well turn into another Afghanistan or Iraq with a strong Resistance movement and a very messy on-going situation.
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  #329  
Old 21.04.2014, 00:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Europeans are not Afghans. Russia is extremely efficient at pacifying a European society - they have done so successfully for 50 years in Eastern Europe, East Germany included. Look at what happens in Crimea or the "separatist" towns in eastern Ukraine - any dissent is immediately suppressed - TV, newspapers and internet shut down, journalists and dissenters either beaten and killed or disappeared.
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  #330  
Old 21.04.2014, 01:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Europeans are not Afghans. Russia is extremely efficient at pacifying a European society - they have done so successfully for 50 years in Eastern Europe, East Germany included. Look at what happens in Crimea or the "separatist" towns in eastern Ukraine - any dissent is immediately suppressed - TV, newspapers and internet shut down, journalists and dissenters either beaten and killed or disappeared.
About "they have done so successfully for 50 years in Eastern Europe, East Germany included."

Actually they have not done any of this in Europe since the Berlin Wall fell around 25 years ago; consequently the current generation of military have no experience of this "pacifying a European society".

Of course, Putin can keep his special forces people in Ukraine for as long as he wants to cover this situation but that leaves him vulnerable in other areas; most of the Russian military people involved are crack units whose usual job is guarding Moscow - how long can he afford to keep them locked away in Ukraine?

About "any dissent is immediately suppressed" - presumably the dissenters will soon learn how to do effective dissent?
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  #331  
Old 21.04.2014, 07:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Europeans are not Afghans. Russia is extremely efficient at pacifying a European society - they have done so successfully for 50 years in Eastern Europe, East Germany included. Look at what happens in Crimea or the "separatist" towns in eastern Ukraine - any dissent is immediately suppressed - TV, newspapers and internet shut down, journalists and dissenters either beaten and killed or disappeared.
The majority people in Crimea were and are ethnic Russians with close links to Russia. The Russia which "pacified" Eastern Europe was ruled by the apparatus of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and had an efficient army

What the Ukraine now tries to do is to raise the "entry price" and the time invasion forces would need. Not really hopeless in regard of the Ukraine as such, but strategically totally hopeless in regard to the area between the Don and the Crimea. But again, if the entry-price is high, Mr Putin will abstain from going too far.

The question is whether the cities on the Ukrainian side of the border would wish to join Russia. If yes, we may seen some referendums taking place
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  #332  
Old 21.04.2014, 17:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The question is whether the cities on the Ukrainian side of the border would wish to join Russia. If yes, we may seen some referendums taking place
I think there is no question about it -- the cities on the Ukrainian side of the border wish to join Russia and get at least some protection. Ukraine is heading into the civil war and even more poverty than before the revolution. The real question is whether Russia wants to be joined with any of the areas in the East or South of Ukraine. And another big question -- what the US wants to achieve in Ukraine?
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  #333  
Old 21.04.2014, 18:41
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World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Stop parroting Kremlin's propaganda. What civil war? There aren't any two (armed) sides. For a bloody uprisal/ liberation civil war go to Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan. Ukraine is none of these, the biggest danger is Russia delivering combat arms to criminals (who, posing as locals, attack and conquer an opera building thinking this is the local council).

Besides, the Soviets controlled the subdued countries by investing them with GRU and KGB style control and they kept these services first headed by them and later reporting to them. Think Stasi, but every former Soviet satellite country had it. After initial cleaning of guerrillas with regular army then it was no less brutal and indiscriminate with these services. After Stalin died the most repressive part slowed (the holy ideology like) but the power was still held with an iron fist. People would disappear or end up in jails for years. Even German Nazis weren't so repressive (except for Jews and those who helped them) and they couldn't really weed out Polish resistance movement but Soviets could do it with complete disregard for law and any rights.
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  #334  
Old 21.04.2014, 18:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "they have done so successfully for 50 years in Eastern Europe, East Germany included."
The biggest problem of Ukrainian government is that they have absolutely no money. And they are still extremely corrupt so nobody would even consider giving them any money to see their Swiss bank accounts grow. And Ukraine is highly dependent on Russia. If hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian migrant workers have to go from Russia back home then this would be another revolution.
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  #335  
Old 21.04.2014, 19:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Who's side is China on again?
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  #336  
Old 21.04.2014, 19:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The biggest problem of Ukrainian government is that they have absolutely no money. And they are still extremely corrupt so nobody would even consider giving them any money to see their Swiss bank accounts grow. And Ukraine is highly dependent on Russia. If hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian migrant workers have to go from Russia back home then this would be another revolution.
The biggest problem is that Russia has gas. I mean money. Remind me how is the Orthodox week called among 5 star hoteliers in Switzerland? I'll tell you - the Russian week. Some parts of Russia prosper, some are even worse off.
Now about "civil war" in Ukraine - here are unsung heroes of it - Russian special forces and military:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/wo...to-russia.html

And now how modern and prosperous Russia is (published last year, so don't claim it was made on purpose):
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/...ia/?ref=europe

Wake up.
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  #337  
Old 21.04.2014, 19:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Stop parroting Kremlin's propaganda. What civil war? There aren't any two (armed) sides.
...
Well, a couple of Ukrainian regions have proclaimed independence from Ukraine. Kiev has sent the army to deal with the rebels, but for now the army has lost a few military vehicles to the locals and couldn't do much more than that. But the situation is very dangerous -- the breakaway regions are armed, supported by many locals and probably supported by the Russians. I don't see how this would be peacefully resolved.
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  #338  
Old 21.04.2014, 19:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Who's side is China on again?
China is on the China's side -- Putin will visit China in May, and this time an agreement on the gas prices might be reached.
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  #339  
Old 21.04.2014, 19:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

[QUOTE=leonie;2137626]I think there is no question about it -- the cities on the Ukrainian side of the border wish to join Russia and get at least some protection. Ukraine is heading into the civil war and even more poverty than before the revolution. The real question is whether Russia wants to be joined with any of the areas in the East or South of Ukraine. And another big question -- what the US wants to achieve in Ukraine?[/QUOTE]
Convince NATO and other Friendly nation, the need to buy US made weapon ,like the 'F35'
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  #340  
Old 21.04.2014, 21:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Convince NATO and other Friendly nation, the need to buy US made weapon ,like the 'F35'
And maybe US made gas as well?
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