Rumors of Putins health slowly deteriorating have increased in the last years.

Could be his shot (ha!) at going out with a bang.

I'm pretty sure he wouldn't want to end up next to Stalin and Lenin, stuffed sock-puppet-style.

Just doesn't suit him.

Sure, the Russians can just keep pouring in more and more resources until they are successful.

At some point, the EU might want to ask itself: "At which stage of what looks a bit like the beginning of the Vietnam-war are we right now?".

Russia has - in theory - a lot of resources it can throw at this.

Putin might cave-in (very) much earlier, but how much would you bet on this thing having no chance of going sideways for the EU?

Apart from France and maybe the UK, most EU military contributions to NATO are more symbolic than providing any additional firepower (German Airforce is notorious for being low on spares and working kit, the rest of the army not much better and the navy not much use in this conflict)

And don't forget: the clock for Taiwan is ticking, too.

Xi is up for re-election and this opportunity is almost too good to be wasted.

I think people are underestimating the unprecedented nature and impact of the current US/EU/worldwide actions if they think China wants any part of this at a time when the world is reacting to the Ukraine invasion with an unprecedented collective resolve and anger and brutal sanctions designed to cripple a countries entire economy. Not to mention being an outcast from the worlds sporting and musical events that form an important part of international diplomacy and influence. Why would China, an economy increasingly interlinked with the rest of the world and a country that prides itself on its growing sporting achievements and influence, want to face that kind of heat at the worst possible point in time by conducting their own invasion? They are witnessing a direct example of the kind of reaction they could receive from the international community if they attack Taiwan.

I think that it is almost certain that China will be closely watching what is happening to Russia diplomatically and economically, both now and in the coming months, and if they have even an iota of sense then the re-acquisition of Taiwan by force is going to take a back seat in their list of current priorities now that their key strategic ally in the region is a definitive worldwide pariah. The Chinese are not stupid and I think they will play the long game and wait for the dust to settle before risking anything. Thanks to Putin acting as a willing test subject, they now have a real-world example of what can happen if the West and their allies are pushed far and hard enough.

I think this analysis does not take into account many things; not only the wildly different circumstances to the time you are referring to, but also that Russias elite are tightly integrated with Western economies and lifestyles. They don't want to be an international pariah; their international assets frozen; their ability to do business castrated; their spheres of influence reduced and to be shunned by the international community; their spoilt families haranguing them constantly at home as all of their privileges are slowly stripped away. Putin and his unstable ambitions are the only reason that is happening, he is the one roadblock to regaining that lifestyle. Not only will the elite be wanting the removal of this mad dog, but the public sentiment due to warring and killing civilians of their closest and most beloved neighbours, where Russian people have many friends and family, will have a major impact too. Not to mention he has publicly humiliated his most senior advisors and this kind of stuff brews the specific conditions needed for large-scale treachery. When you add all of that cluster**** of a situation together then I honestly cannot see how his position is tenable in any kind of long-term future from this point.

Again a bit of keyboard strategy. I keep on wondering why the hell did he do it? And one possible explanation is that he essentially forced NATO into a mistake irrelevant of what NATO does.

If NATO doesn't intervene (as now and his most likely planning scenario) he could crush the Ukrainians and then tell them "look, NATO can't protect you from me, they are only talk and no action. I can guarantee your safety with some conditions....". Reading some eastern-European forums and facebook posts I am shocked at the level of "support" for Putin with precisely this message "NATO is weak, they couldn't protect Ukraine". Partly trolls, for sure, but partly real people with a distorted view.

If NATO does intervene, then he would have spinned the story about how he was right all along and NATO is a threat to him as it's an attacking alliance. This would have given him even more room to maneuver internally in Russia to basically strengthen the military even further. He could have even gone further by trying to forge some sort of anti-NATO coalition

It depends on how tight Putin´s grip is, he won´t go without a fight and one option would be changing Russia from an authoritarian to a totalitarian state a la Stalin. In that case Russia´s rich would be a target like the Romanov´s.
But you could be correct, a report in the news just now claimed that the Russian rich are starting to push back against Putin.

I know nobody wants to hear it, but the West cannot intervene and its best shot is betting on UA proving too big to swallow for Putin, and Russia getting stuck there as it economically bleeds out.

An interesting, but not very cheerful perspective from Fiona Hill:

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340

Agree. Even rational players become irrational when the stakes get too high.

Someone yesterday on the news said something interesting as well "Putin is not a sophisticated chess-player, he's a poker player"

Why he did it....he was planning it for a long time and thought now is the moment. He has a narcissistic personality - lacks empathy, has delusional feelings about his importance etc etc. would destroy everyone who humiliated him, and if you are to believe Obama and other leaders who met with him he only knows the "law of the street" which means he is not so refined or educated. Why, it doesn't matter why, it was in the plan.

It's 1st of March already and I think EU and everyone else who could help should be really involved in protecting the civilians that escape from the war zones because there will be a lot more than now. There are basically only women with children and some elderly, these are the most vulnerable categories in every conflict, this is what we need to focus more now, of course sending military equipments and medicines, food and other supplies to UA is also vital. There shouldn't be any stuttering from anyone anymore, each country should do whatever they can. Putin is openly threatening everyone and warns them against helping UA, he is like a rabid dog who would bite everyone now but you know what to say when in doubt "Russian warship, go f.... yourself!"

I believe he would have gone nuclear in Crimea, so Ukraine would not stop him.
Pictures I saw yesterday showed nuke capable rocket launchers with the "Z" on them, go figure.

Another excellent and cool-headed analysis:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/st...81975022940167


Why would he go nuclear on Crimea when he fully controls it?!
A nuclear-capable missile does not mean that the payload is nuclear. It is highly unlikely there are Russian nukes in Ukraine, there's not even one report suggesting this. Moreover, for a tactical strike, he doesn't need them to be in Ukraine anyway.

Having read the Fiona Hill piece, it kind of dawns on me that there is no viable exit route for Putin unless he gets UA. Which means this is going to play out the hard way.

Sure, this is what I was trying to say, he's only way is escalation and artillery / heavy fire bombardment to plough his way in. We're all rooting for the Ukrainians (at least I am !), but I'm afraid the worst is yet to come.

Me too, but does anyone else think that convoy is super vulnerable?

Even if NATO countries are not directly involved as boots in the ground there, they could provide strategic advice, that could be a game changer for a targeted strike on that convoy!

This is what I just said to OH...why not attack that 40-mile tailback in 4 locations. The Russian tanks would be there until the cows came home!

Hmm! At what point does strategic advice become nato involvement in the eyes of Putin?

They have now significant air-superiority and have apparently take down a few command centers for the Ukrainian Bayraktar drones which were so effective in the first days.

The convoy is public knowledge for at least two days now which means the Ukrainians knew about it even earlier and have been unable to target it so far.

You think the Ukrainians don't know about the convoy? NATO must stay out of this.

i would not worry much about the convoy. remember helicopters breakthru near Kyiv with ru descent?
They was passed by purpose. The landing was full of mines. When mines did its job, the rest was covered with artillery

nato will provide intel data for sure