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  #3501  
Old 02.03.2022, 00:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I don't know about the spirit in "normal" Russia. Protests seem to be there, but not more than hundreds of people. Half of them get arrested.

Do any of the EFers here with real connections to friends and family in Russia have a sense for (1) whether ordinary Russians actually see the same news (online) that we are seeing, and (2) whether they feel an uprising could happen?
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  #3502  
Old 02.03.2022, 00:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Since I cannot sleep good these days a live dream brought me an idea. Feel free to use your imagination, criticise and point out possible repercussions:

What if we (as NATO and EU community) strike a deal with Russian citizens, basically saying:

"Get rid of Putin & Co. and we welcome you in NATO and EU."

How to get rid of them? Your choice, Russian citizens.

Since there are already heavy protests in Russia maybe that would add a good amount of fuel to the already ignited fire.
Everyone would wish that it all stops right here right now … every day means more lives lost and families displaced out of their homeland.

The words of this song are very poignant.

https://youtu.be/XzEwCc4WVKs
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  #3503  
Old 02.03.2022, 01:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Unfortunately it's very hard to re-unite after spilling each other's blood. I'm afraid hatred is now much deeper rooted than before and even if people understand on an intellectual level that it was putin's fault, hate is an emotion, not a intellectual choice.

In somewhat Swiss related news, Nord Stream 2 files for bankruptcy firing all 106 employees in Zug
Swiss media says 140 employees have no job after Nord Stream2 is about to declare bankruptcy in Zug

https://t.co/lWFSaSOTo8
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  #3504  
Old 02.03.2022, 01:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Swiss media says 140 employees have no job after Nord Stream2 is about to declare bankruptcy in Zug

https://t.co/lWFSaSOTo8
Tough luck. They all go to max RAV money. No sympathy here.
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  #3505  
Old 02.03.2022, 02:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Those jobs were always a risky play.

Germany always insisted that Nord Stream 2 was not political - only about the gas.

Now they’ve made it a political topic and try to walk back on it faster than you can say „Boom“.
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  #3506  
Old 02.03.2022, 06:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Unfortunately it's very hard to re-unite after spilling each other's blood. I'm afraid hatred is now much deeper rooted than before and even if people understand on an intellectual level that it was putin's fault, hate is an emotion, not a intellectual choice.
People still remember Stalin's engineered Ukrainian famine in 1932-33.
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  #3507  
Old 02.03.2022, 06:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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People still remember Stalin's engineered Ukrainian famine in 1932-33.
The film Mr.Jones, about the Welsh journalist Gareth Jones's journey to publish a story about the famine and how to Kremlin tried to thwart him is worth a watch.
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  #3508  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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People still remember Stalin's engineered Ukrainian famine in 1932-33.
Stalin's politics in Eastern Europe will not be forgotten any time soon. There are still people who lived during those times in terror. In my country the old elite was either imprisoned, killed or pushed to seek exile, and replaced with Soviet puppet governments and Moscow approved people instead. The late 40's and'50s, those were the hardest years as you didn't know if you are going to be left alive after that horrific political purge. Not to mention having your land, even house(s) and everything else confiscated by the communists.

What Putin has done with his opposition is rather similar with those times and with other authoritarian (communist but not only) regimes in general. Of course, the main difference, probably, is that if you are not politically involved and mind your own business maybe nothing so bad can happen to you in Putin's Russia, but he probably isn't after small people anyway.
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  #3509  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

And article explaining Putin's motives - and why he's now surprised by the West's reaction to his latest invasion.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/o...ava/index.html

And a video explaining more of the background to his thinking. Long, but interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
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  #3510  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Slightly funny, but it does mirror German sentiments on why it was so hard to cut energy ties with Russia.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/en...?siteid=yhoof2
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  #3511  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I was listening to BBC World Radio just now and they were talking to a Ukrainian called Vlad, and at the end of the interview he said they kept their spirits up by their black humour and making jokes about gypsies. I kid you not. The reporter had to call Vlad on it. Did anyone else hear it? It was a Borat moment.
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  #3512  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't know about the spirit in "normal" Russia. Protests seem to be there, but not more than hundreds of people. Half of them get arrested.

Do any of the EFers here with real connections to friends and family in Russia have a sense for (1) whether ordinary Russians actually see the same news (online) that we are seeing, and (2) whether they feel an uprising could happen?
Yes, I have several Russian friends and they are good people and appalled and horrified by what is happening and do not want to be associated with it in anyway.

I have one in transit to my place who managed to leave a couple of days ago and now is on day three to escape. Spoke to them last night and they are hurting badly because of the nationality they have and do not want to go back.

Now they are faced of where to go, limited tourist visa so less than 90 days and counting and what to do, short term and long term.

They told me that many other Russians wanted to leave but were not in such a good position to do so.

The flight from Istanbul to Rome yesterday had a lot of other Russians fleeing too to the point the passport control actually joked with them. They laughed too but shared with me how sad they felt.

Leaving family who did not want to leave and no certainty of what the future holds.
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  #3513  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Do any of the EFers here with real connections to friends and family in Russia have a sense for (1) whether ordinary Russians actually see the same news (online) that we are seeing, and (2) whether they feel an uprising could happen?
Many many people are in shock and disbelief and cannot make sense of what is happening. Some people feel that something catastrophic happened, but some other people actively support this war. They don’t have the same news as here, I try to follow both and it’s like completely different worlds being painted to us and to them. The alternative media is completely silenced. In the last years the military propaganda such as regular shows about new weapons was everywhere so some people think that Russia is very strong militarily.

The uprising is not coming. The media reports that Putin’s support has increased in the last week but again this could be the propaganda. The sanctions are taking effect on the most vulnerable such as the elderly.
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  #3514  
Old 02.03.2022, 07:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Stalin's politics in Eastern Europe will not be forgotten any time soon.
Sorry to pick on your post, but I have to make this comment. Stalins politics in Eastern Europe were brutal, dishonest and long and fully agree should not be forgotten. BUT Stalin was allowed and even enabled by Churchil and the West to do all that as the West saw Eastern Europe as a safety belt between itself and Russia.

The EXACT SAME strategic mistake is being done by the West now and if there's ONE silver lining to the war in Ukraine is if it's a wake up call to the West that East Europe is no safety belt. East Europe WANTS and NEEDS to be part of the normal world.
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Old 02.03.2022, 07:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I saw this morning that Apple have gone as far as they dare, which is to remove russian broadcasters from the store, but it does make me wonder whether they are getting pressure from the US. Although you dont really think about it, its probably one of the most potent "real war" weapons without actually landing any bombs we have: Amazon, Microsoft and Apple between them can turn off most computing infrastructure corporations use as much of it is hosted in clouds or at least relies on licensing that can be disabled centrally.

Yes I know there are loads of old kit out there, but if Microsoft disabled Windows and cut off Azure and Amazon stopped AWS in one hit at Russia it would be pretty hard for many businesses not to just stop on the spot.

I dont expect it to happen because it is very close to a Real Act Of War which could bring bomb level reprisals, but it was an interesting thought.
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  #3516  
Old 02.03.2022, 08:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sorry to pick on your post, but I have to make this comment. Stalins politics in Eastern Europe were brutal, dishonest and long and fully agree should not be forgotten. BUT Stalin was allowed and even enabled by Churchil and the West to do all that as the West saw Eastern Europe as a safety belt between itself and Russia.

The EXACT SAME strategic mistake is being done by the West now and if there's ONE silver lining to the war in Ukraine is if it's a wake up call to the West that East Europe is no safety belt. East Europe WANTS and NEEDS to be part of the normal world.
Stalin and Putin are very different, and it will not help to equate them if you want to understand the situation. I am not defending either of them, but the political system under Stalin was such a completely different story than it is currently in Russia. Stalin is as relevant now as the tsar Nicolas the second.
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  #3517  
Old 02.03.2022, 08:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sorry to pick on your post, but I have to make this comment. Stalins politics in Eastern Europe were brutal, dishonest and long and fully agree should not be forgotten. BUT Stalin was allowed and even enabled by Churchil and the West to do all that as the West saw Eastern Europe as a safety belt between itself and Russia.
.
No, you are totally right, absolutely. They traded us with Russia as if we didn't count for anything. Churchill traded Romania for Greece for example. Of course, he foresaw the britons will need holiday homes..(joke)

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Stalin and Putin are very different, and it will not help to equate them if you want to understand the situation. I am not defending either of them, but the political system under Stalin was such a completely different story than it is currently in Russia. Stalin is as relevant now as the tsar Nicolas the second.
I think he meant the elimination of political adversaries, not reinstalling "communism".


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The EXACT SAME strategic mistake is being done by the West now and if there's ONE silver lining to the war in Ukraine is if it's a wake up call to the West that East Europe is no safety belt. East Europe WANTS and NEEDS to be part of the normal world.

Absolutely!!!!!!

This is what I was saying all along.
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  #3518  
Old 02.03.2022, 08:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Stalin and Putin are very different
They could, by their actions, both be classed as psychopaths.

Not that different.
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Old 02.03.2022, 08:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They could, by their actions, both be classed as psychopaths.

Not that different.
Putin has declared right from the beginning that (not exact quote) "The collapse of Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century"......and "once a KGB, always a KGB".

When someone tells you who they are, you better believe them.


Anyways, I think his popularity was based on the promise that he'll punish all those nasty oligarchs, fix corruption etc etc

Last edited by greenmount; 02.03.2022 at 08:55.
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Old 02.03.2022, 08:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The good news (for me) is that my parents went to the west of Ukraine. They were standing in the train for 10 hours, but now they are sleeping in a bed in a friend's home. Tomorrow they'll try to cross the border.
This is really great news, I am hoping that the way to the border will be fast. Waiting for any news from our relatives, hope they make it to any border.
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