Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #3561  
Old 02.03.2022, 13:51
MidfieldGeneral's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Zürich
Posts: 1,589
Groaned at 108 Times in 101 Posts
Thanked 3,326 Times in 1,361 Posts
MidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond reputeMidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond reputeMidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond reputeMidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond reputeMidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond reputeMidfieldGeneral has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Yet the base scenario seems to be "let's go to war extremely overstretched on multiple fronts and without re-supply".

And he is not a military man at all, if this is supposed to mean proper military eduction.
OK sorry my bad, but he will have been well briefed militarily and he's an experienced leader. He will have been fully aware of all possible outcomes.

on a separate note, Abramovich has put up Chelsea for sale anticipating sanctions. He's owed £2bn by Chelsea.
Reply With Quote
  #3562  
Old 02.03.2022, 13:52
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,567
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,674 Times in 12,922 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
A couple of "what I reckon" observations from my side:

Putin is an experienced leader and military man, I don't think he thought this would be an easy war and a quick Ukraine rollover. He would have surely calculated several military scenarios.

The advice by Ukrainian authorities (if true) to get civilians to make Molotov cocktails and resist the Russians is totally irresponsible.
Enlisting civilians to resist invaders is a centuries old tradition, remember Dad's Army?
In this case it is a better option than sitting in one's apartment building waiting for Russian bombs, rockets, and shells to come through the walls.

Somebody calculated there is one Russian soldier in Ukraine for every 250 civilians so my money is on the civilians.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #3563  
Old 02.03.2022, 14:00
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Kt.Zh
Posts: 12,460
Groaned at 490 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,538 Times in 9,887 Posts
greenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Enlisting civilians to resist invaders is a centuries old tradition, remember Dad's Army?
In this case it is a better option than sitting in one's apartment building waiting for Russian bombs, rockets, and shells to come through the walls.

Somebody calculated there is one Russian soldier in Ukraine for every 250 civilians so my money is on the civilians.
Desperate times, desperate measures...
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank greenmount for this useful post:
  #3564  
Old 02.03.2022, 14:11
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,567
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,674 Times in 12,922 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Thing is, he's done this twice successfully already - Georgia and Crimea. Both times the West had other concerns and didn't really react. This time he's managed to pick the "wrong" time if you like and now has the West fully focused on what he's attempting. I don't think he was expecting the strength of the resistance the Ukrainians are putting up, nor did he expect the West to even notice, let alone back Ukraine against his aggression.
I agree, I am sure Putin expected a similar reaction as to his Crimea invasion and did not expect such wide ranging and severe sanctions.
Even in the 1998 economic crisis the Russian stock market did not close for so long as now.
Reply With Quote
  #3565  
Old 02.03.2022, 14:11
Medea Fleecestealer's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 23,621
Groaned at 467 Times in 363 Posts
Thanked 18,942 Times in 10,454 Posts
Medea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond reputeMedea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond reputeMedea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond reputeMedea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond reputeMedea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond reputeMedea Fleecestealer has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
OK sorry my bad, but he will have been well briefed militarily and he's an experienced leader. He will have been fully aware of all possible outcomes.

on a separate note, Abramovich has put up Chelsea for sale anticipating sanctions. He's owed £2bn by Chelsea.
Might become Swiss property.

"Roman Abramovich's future as Chelsea owner is in doubt after a Swiss billionaire claimed he has been offered the chance to buy the club.

Hansjorg Wyss told Swiss newspaper Blick that Abramovich "wants to get rid of Chelsea quickly" after the threat of sanctions was raised in Parliament."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60585081
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Medea Fleecestealer for this useful post:
  #3566  
Old 02.03.2022, 14:23
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,340
Groaned at 434 Times in 312 Posts
Thanked 9,570 Times in 4,055 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Agree. He is not a military man at all, he comes from the KGB.

Btw, an incredible interview with Andrey Kortunov. Kortunov is Soviet "blue blood": MGIMO graduate, close adviser to the Kremlin and Putin with stints in the embassies in London, Washington and the UN. He was a staunch defender of Putin since decades.

The fact that he is shocked and surprised is already interesting, but more importantly, he is ashamed, embarrassed and depressed. I think putin unintentionally broke something in the Russian model and there's no way things will continue as they were. There will be some sort of change, the question is in what direction.
Very interesting.

And for what it is worth, I was at MGIMO for a year in 1999/2000. At that time it had become a kindergarten for spoiled rich kids and the quality at least of the economic faculty was ... let's say still very Soviet.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post:
  #3567  
Old 02.03.2022, 14:38
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,567
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,674 Times in 12,922 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Apparently the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20% to support the Ruble (or should we say the rubble).

The Ruble had fallen 30% on Asian markets in early trading this morning. Now down only 20% or so.
Ruble still collapsing, now over 30% down again. Due to the restrictions on the Russian Central Bank there seems to be little Putin can do to stop the collapse.

Likely this will drive domestic Russian inflation from the current 8% to well over 40%.

For the pessimists amongst us, I just got an email from AliExpress advertising a Geiger radioactivity counter for only CHF 40.-
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #3568  
Old 02.03.2022, 15:11
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,323
Groaned at 243 Times in 177 Posts
Thanked 4,947 Times in 1,886 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Very interesting.

And for what it is worth, I was at MGIMO for a year in 1999/2000. At that time it had become a kindergarten for spoiled rich kids and the quality at least of the economic faculty was ... let's say still very Soviet.
It was sort of like the ENA of the Communist world during communism. Only the best of the best (and connected of course!) would go there and was pretty much a guarantee for a solid career in the various state functions.

Since you've been a student there and looking at your nickname, you're so far a very poor soviet troll, what's wrong?
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #3569  
Old 02.03.2022, 15:22
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Kt.Zh
Posts: 12,460
Groaned at 490 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,538 Times in 9,887 Posts
greenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
For the pessimists amongst us, I just got an email from AliExpress advertising a Geiger radioactivity counter for only CHF 40.-
I think they already ran out of stock....is this the new toilet paper btw?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank greenmount for this useful post:
  #3570  
Old 02.03.2022, 15:47
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,323
Groaned at 243 Times in 177 Posts
Thanked 4,947 Times in 1,886 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Another piece of interesting news

Erdoğan calls on EU to show sensitivity about Turkey's membership

Could it be that Ankara is re-assessing it's priorities and has decided to become the conduit of Middle-Eastern gas and oil to Europe to replace Russia as an energy supplier? If this is the case, their value-proposition all of a sudden became much more tempting.
Reply With Quote
  #3571  
Old 02.03.2022, 15:53
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,340
Groaned at 434 Times in 312 Posts
Thanked 9,570 Times in 4,055 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It was sort of like the ENA of the Communist world during communism. Only the best of the best (and connected of course!) would go there and was pretty much a guarantee for a solid career in the various state functions.

Since you've been a student there and looking at your nickname, you're so far a very poor soviet troll, what's wrong?
In fact, my nickname dates back to those days. And apologies for not meeting the expectations.

I know the reputation of MGIMO, and it still is an entry ticket into Russian government service. I was there on a scholarship and lived in the dormitory. In front of the main uni building there were big black Mercedes limos with drivers waiting for some of the students.

I also remember that these were the early days of Putin's presidency, he was hugely popular among the young people, and I was frequently stopped by the police and had my documents checked because I looked like a "chornyi", i.e. from the Caucasus region. It was the time when Putin had apartment buildings in Moscow blown up to justify a war in Chechnya. Let's be honest - he always was what he is today.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post:
  #3572  
Old 02.03.2022, 15:59
Axa's Avatar
Axa Axa is online now
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Suhr, Aargau
Posts: 5,910
Groaned at 114 Times in 103 Posts
Thanked 8,616 Times in 4,052 Posts
Axa has a reputation beyond reputeAxa has a reputation beyond reputeAxa has a reputation beyond reputeAxa has a reputation beyond reputeAxa has a reputation beyond reputeAxa has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Another piece of interesting news

Erdoğan calls on EU to show sensitivity about Turkey's membership

Could it be that Ankara is re-assessing it's priorities and has decided to become the conduit of Middle-Eastern gas and oil to Europe to replace Russia as an energy supplier? If this is the case, their value-proposition all of a sudden became much more tempting.
Very very interesting question by Erdogan:

Quote:
"Will you put Turkey on your agenda when someone attacks (us) too?"
I forgot where I read that Turkey is the main foreign investor in Ukraine. So, the invasion is not helping at all Turkish investments in Ukraine.

While avoiding frontal confrontation with Russia, it's clear Erdogan is not supporting Putin and it's playing an interesting card in the negotiation with the EU. Damn...only 5 days from the invasion and the world looks different.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Axa for this useful post:
  #3573  
Old 02.03.2022, 16:05
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,323
Groaned at 243 Times in 177 Posts
Thanked 4,947 Times in 1,886 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post

I forgot where I read that Turkey is the main foreign investor in Ukraine. So, the invasion is not helping at all to Turkish investments in Ukraine.
Moreover it's somewhat personal for Erdogan: the now-famous Bayraktar Ukrainian drones are produced by his son-in-law and there's also a joint-venture for their manufacture in Ukraine.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank gaburko for this useful post:
  #3574  
Old 02.03.2022, 16:46
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Nyon
Posts: 8,567
Groaned at 540 Times in 399 Posts
Thanked 11,896 Times in 5,540 Posts
bowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Türkiye has a long way to go to EU membership (as does Ukraine). The death penalty for example. A working democracy with adequate checks and balances for another. The list is long.
Reply With Quote
  #3575  
Old 02.03.2022, 16:51
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,567
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,674 Times in 12,922 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Moreover it's somewhat personal for Erdogan: the now-famous Bayraktar Ukrainian drones are produced by his son-in-law and there's also a joint-venture for their manufacture in Ukraine.
Interesting discussion about drones, certainly the Ukrainian army uses them very well.

The question is if the weapons they carry are big enough to make a difference in modern warfare. Of course, you can fit them with bigger weapons but then you need to increase the size of the drone and so risk losing the benefit of being a small device that is hard to track and attack.

If you have something like the 40 mile long convoy mentioned earlier then a couple of drones are not going to achieve much against it. A different situation if you can identify small, high value targets to attack but that is not so easy.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #3576  
Old 02.03.2022, 17:05
gaburko's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: BL
Posts: 1,323
Groaned at 243 Times in 177 Posts
Thanked 4,947 Times in 1,886 Posts
gaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond reputegaburko has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post

The question is if the weapons they carry are big enough to make a difference in modern warfare.
No single weapon, barring a tactical/strategic nuclear strike, can win a war on it's own. The Bayraktar though was probably the most important asset in Azerbaijan inventory vs Armenia for example and until the moment when Russia took full control over the sky in Ukraine, the Bayraktar was incredibly effective against ground targets. They are cheaper than a manned helicopter, harder to track and trickier to neutralize.

A 40 mile column like the one the Russians have is something that is a major exception in modern warfare, it just doesn't happen that often and whether you attack it from air or from artillery it would require a massive amount of firepower, something which is not where a drone is strong at.

But in a modern context with smaller, much more mobile ground units, a drone is one of the most effective tools.
Reply With Quote
  #3577  
Old 02.03.2022, 17:19
Aleydis's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Zurich
Posts: 1,041
Groaned at 37 Times in 30 Posts
Thanked 949 Times in 493 Posts
Aleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Agree. He is not a military man at all, he comes from the KGB.

Btw, an incredible interview with Andrey Kortunov. Kortunov is Soviet "blue blood": MGIMO graduate, close adviser to the Kremlin and Putin with stints in the embassies in London, Washington and the UN. He was a staunch defender of Putin since decades.

The fact that he is shocked and surprised is already interesting, but more importantly, he is ashamed, embarrassed and depressed. I think putin unintentionally broke something in the Russian model and there's no way things will continue as they were. There will be some sort of change, the question is in what direction.
By the same man https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analyti...he-new-normal/
Reply With Quote
  #3578  
Old 02.03.2022, 17:23
Tom1234's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Kanton Luzern
Posts: 18,892
Groaned at 839 Times in 654 Posts
Thanked 29,216 Times in 11,816 Posts
Tom1234 has a reputation beyond reputeTom1234 has a reputation beyond reputeTom1234 has a reputation beyond reputeTom1234 has a reputation beyond reputeTom1234 has a reputation beyond reputeTom1234 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post

A 40 mile column like the one the Russians have is something that is a major exception in modern warfare, it just doesn't happen that often and whether you attack it from air or from artillery it would require a massive amount of firepower, something which is not where a drone is strong at.
I disagree - a drone would be perfect for this.

I should think that perhaps only one in four vehicles is a tank. The rest will be troop carriers, food wagons, water wagons and fuel tankers

A drone operator will easily be able to see which are the fuel tankers.
If these are targeted then they will create the most damage due to the fuel and long-term, the tanks won't be going anywhere without any fuel.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Tom1234 for this useful post:
  #3579  
Old 02.03.2022, 17:27
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 14,255
Groaned at 1,470 Times in 967 Posts
Thanked 21,634 Times in 8,255 Posts
Chuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Blackpool… Where Lancashires Rich live, should try Blackburn.
Blackpool is overall the most deprived place in the entire UK.
Reply With Quote
  #3580  
Old 02.03.2022, 17:29
NotAllThere's Avatar
Modulo 2
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Baselland
Posts: 16,522
Groaned at 355 Times in 308 Posts
Thanked 26,093 Times in 10,648 Posts
NotAllThere has a reputation beyond reputeNotAllThere has a reputation beyond reputeNotAllThere has a reputation beyond reputeNotAllThere has a reputation beyond reputeNotAllThere has a reputation beyond reputeNotAllThere has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
I don't know about the spirit in "normal" Russia. Protests seem to be there, but not more than hundreds of people. Half of them get arrested.
Article in The Times, by Andrey Kalikh (paywall). In St Petersburg, there are rallies organised via Telegram. They're deliberately small so that the police, who can't be everywhere, can't pick them all up.

Another interesting article here, "Dnipro will be a Stalingrad for the Russian attackers, vows regional chief". Intends to put a million people under arms to defends his city.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
crimea, russia, ukraine




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 3 (0 members and 3 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Jewish Refugees in Switzerland during World War II zanskar International affairs/politics 48 16.06.2010 15:58
Book about Switzerland in the second world war [recommendation?] telandy Other/general 14 18.06.2007 20:15


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 12:53.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0