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Old 03.03.2022, 14:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't think there is hard evidence for that. But assume a mix of Soviet anti-NATO paranoia, Covid paranoia and some idea that he is the chosen one ...
I think this is precisely the direction he has taken. Unfortunately, we have a fairly recent historical example as there's wide consensus among historians that Hitler was revered by his inner circle in a religious way.

The fact that Goebbels' wife murdered her own children (6 of them) in the bunker before commiting suicide herself with her husband by saying that they should not live in world without Hitler is just one of many proofs that this was a sect-like organization.

If true, we're dealing with complete lunatics, but more importantly, my dream to see him eliminated by the oligarchs seems naiive and a no-go.
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think this is precisely the direction he has taken. Unfortunately, we have a fairly recent historical example as there's wide consensus among historians that Hitler was revered by his inner circle in a religious way.

The fact that Goebbels' wife murdered her own children (6 of them) in the bunker before commiting suicide herself with her husband by saying that they should not live in world without Hitler is just one of many proofs that this was a sect-like organization.

If true, we're dealing with complete lunatics, but more importantly, my dream to see him eliminated by the oligarchs seems naiive and a no-go.
Hitler wasn´t a lunatic, nor is Putin, both are rational and sane and doing the right thing.
From their point of view.
The way they saw and see it, it´s us who can´t comprehend the vision and both had the power to go through with their vision without having to account to the public.
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

On the subject of who is mister putin.. and more
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e-war-chechnya
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  #3664  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Today will be another round of talks — really hope they agree to stop fighting. I think this would be the most important first step, let them stop the fighting. They are destroying Ukraine and killing people.
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Today will be another round of talks — really hope they agree to stop fighting. I think this would be the most important first step, let them stop the fighting. They are destroying Ukraine and killing people.
Most talks are just to keep the door open. Until the situation becomes desperate or untenable for either side the talks won't progress much.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but it's war after all.
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  #3666  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Today will be another round of talks — really hope they agree to stop fighting. I think this would be the most important first step, let them stop the fighting. They are destroying Ukraine and killing people.
I should really hope so, that it will be constructive because while reporter was talking the sky went ablaze.

Ukraine conflict: Reporter takes cover as blast lights up Kyiv's sky https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600984
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sorry, but just no. They shouldn't be allowed to compete. I know it's hard on the athletes and not their fault, but given the pressure the IOC put on FIFA and other sports governing bodies to do more, this is a disgrace on the IOC's part.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/60586037
Seems they changed their minds.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/60599739

What they really mean is probably so many countries said they wouldn't compete if the Russian/Belarus athletes did that there'd be no Games because there'd be no competitors.

Feel sorry for the athletes caught up in all this, but allowing them to compete would have been wrong.
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  #3668  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If true, we're dealing with complete lunatics, but more importantly, my dream to see him eliminated by the oligarchs seems naiive and a no-go.
I think there is realistically very little chance that the oligarchs worship Putin as any kind of religious figure. Putin is just a man with complete tyrannical power over those under him. Many of the oligarchs will likely fear and hate him in equal measure, especially given recent events, and I don't see how he will retain their support through this car crash in their wealth and power and influence.

Given all the talk of nukes I would not be surprised if some of them are already starting to think very hard about ways to curb or even remove him without sacrificing their own precious skins.
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think there is realistically very little chance that the oligarchs worship Putin as any kind of religious figure. Putin is just a man with complete tyrannical power over those under him. Many of the oligarchs will likely fear and hate him in equal measure, especially given recent events, and I don't see how he will retain their support through this car crash in their wealth and power and influence.
In recent years, oligarchs who have said one word against Putin have either ended up in a Siberian penal camp for a few years or have died in not-so-mysterious circumstances when abroad.

The only chance of Putin being ousted is by the military.
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Old 03.03.2022, 15:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I should really hope so, that it will be constructive because while reporter was talking the sky went ablaze.

Ukraine conflict: Reporter takes cover as blast lights up Kyiv's sky https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600984
I wonder if any additional representatives are attending the talks? Maybe RedCross or similar? People are stuck in the bombed cities for over a week now, at least some kind of agreement has to be reached to let them out. It does feel like these talks are not for the real steps.
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  #3671  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Given all the talk of nukes I would not be surprised if some of them are already starting to think very hard about ways to curb or even remove him without sacrificing their own precious skins.
I agree and this is / was my hope as well. The problem is he's not giving them a physical chance to do so as he's apparently living in a bunker and goes to the Kremlin to meet the siloviki daily. He's no longer meeting oligarchs or civil servants apart from group meetings.

Moreover, a few years ago he developed a national guard force, reporting directly to him and counting 340,000 personnel. Sort of like the Roman Pretorian Guards and these are apparently very loyal to him.

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The only chance of Putin being ousted is by the military.
Looks like they are very loyal to him too, at least at the generals level. A coup led by low-ranking officers is probably nothing short of impossible to agree on and execute without leaking out.
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  #3672  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree and this is / was my hope as well. The problem is he's not giving them a physical chance to do so as he's apparently living in a bunker and goes to the Kremlin to meet the siloviki daily. He's no longer meeting oligarchs or civil servants apart from group meetings.

Moreover, a few years ago he developed a national guard force, reporting directly to him and counting 340,000 personnel. Sort of like the Roman Pretorian Guards and these are apparently very loyal to him.



Looks like they are very loyal to him too, at least at the generals level. A coup led by low-ranking officers is probably nothing short of impossible to agree on and execute without leaking out.
Yeah, I imagine that they would have to use all of their considerable skills in bribery and corruption to find a weak chink in his armour. I suspect there are some badly paid and/or highly disillusioned people somewhere in the chain that would be vulnerable to coercion.
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  #3673  
Old 03.03.2022, 15:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yeah, I imagine that they would have to use all of their considerable skills in bribery and corruption to find a weak chink in his armour. I suspect there are some badly paid and/or highly disillusioned people somewhere in the chain that would be vulnerable to coercion.
Btw, for a change, I would love to be wrong and you to be right!

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I disagree - a drone would be perfect for this.
You might be spot-on here! Just now on Sky News one of the military experts said that the Ukrainians are actually slowly bleeding the convoy by targeting precisely the fuel tankers with their own drones (not the Bayraktar ones) which slows them down significantly. They weren't able to provide more specific data re number of vehicles hit or the frequency, but I thought this was interesting

Last edited by gaburko; 03.03.2022 at 16:03.
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  #3674  
Old 03.03.2022, 16:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I cannot read the article, but according to the general on Sky News they are now quite comfortable in the skies and the fact that they are having this huge column sitting like ducks for over 3 days now and the Ukrainians were unable to target it is somehow an indirect proof. Also, the desperate plea of Ukraine for more jets is another indirect sign that they have suffered massive losses and need help.

Btw, I truly hope I'm wrong and the Ukrainians have some surprises, would be wonderful!
I do not know if the convoy is a sitting duck or a trap, so long as it is not moving it is not a threat. Seems like the Ukrainian army has plenty of targets.

"Today, the UK's defense ministry said the convoy appears to have stalled some 30 kilometers (19 miles) outside Kyiv and has made "little discernible progress" over the past three days, citing intelligence.
"The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30 km from the center of the city, having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days," the UK statement said."

************************************************** *

"The reservation system that is the backbone of airlines worldwide says it has terminated its agreement with Russia's government-owned carrier, which could significantly hamper domestic travel.

The technology company Sabre says Aeroflot has been removed from its global distribution system, meaning the airline will not be shown in its "marketplace used by travel agencies, travel websites and corporations around the world to shop, book and service flight reservations."

**************************

"The first foreign fighters have arrived in Ukraine to help defend the country against the Russian invasion, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Ukraine is already greeting foreign volunteers. (The) first 16,000 are already on their way to protect freedom and life for us, and for all,” he said in a video address posted on Facebook Thursday."
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  #3675  
Old 03.03.2022, 16:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The Oligarchs know it's now going to be different world - with or without Putin.

There's probably a lot of compromat about each and every one of them that would get out - and you can never be sure if there's already a paid assassin waiting for you that can strike even when Putin is already gone.

In fact, I'd be surprised if it wasn't the case. With the amount of staff these people have, it would be a miracle if some of them weren't double-dipping from the FSB, too. Heck, a lot of them are probably ex-FSB anyway...

Most of these Oligarchs are so rich because Putin allowed them them to literally take that wealth (for a fee, of course). Whoever comes next might have another agenda.

I don't see Putin ending like Beria.

But I don't see somebody like Navalny being successful at Putin's job either.

BTW: found this paper on the NATO website:

https://www.nato.int/docu/nato-ukrai...ws_en_0206.pdf

(while looking for something different).

It's from 2006, but NATO membership is already discussed there. Ukraine was keen on joining back then already....
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  #3676  
Old 03.03.2022, 16:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Stay Calm and Don’t Advocate for a War Against Russia
Putin’s violence may still get worse. But Americans shouldn’t root for a dangerous escalation of hostilities.

By Tom Nichols

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...campaign=share
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Old 03.03.2022, 17:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree and this is / was my hope as well. The problem is he's not giving them a physical chance to do so as he's apparently living in a bunker and goes to the Kremlin to meet the siloviki daily. He's no longer meeting oligarchs or civil servants apart from group meetings.

Moreover, a few years ago he developed a national guard force, reporting directly to him and counting 340,000 personnel. Sort of like the Roman Pretorian Guards and these are apparently very loyal to him.
Indeed, this level of "bunkering" is typical of authoritarians..power tripping and ego comes with proportional amounts of paranoia. The big distance between him and his chronies in recent media is as much about physical self-protection as anything else...he knows a pat on the back or a handshake could be an assassination attempt through methods he himself has ordered on his enemies.
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Old 03.03.2022, 17:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Moreover, a few years ago he developed a national guard force, reporting directly to him and counting 340,000 personnel. Sort of like the Roman Pretorian Guards and these are apparently very loyal to him.
time to repost the list of Roman emperors murdered by the Praetorian Guard

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catego...aetorian_Guard
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Old 03.03.2022, 17:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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time to repost the list of Roman emperors murdered by the Praetorian Guard

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catego...aetorian_Guard
Now do Russian dictators.
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Old 03.03.2022, 18:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Now do Russian dictators.
Well, the last Russian Emperor had an appointment with an execution squad. During the USSR times, the 5 out of 8 leaders died in office. Since 1991, only Yeltsin enjoyed some years of retirement. The other guy (Putin's sockpuppet) is still active.

Quite interesting that death, either from natural causes or with some external help, seems to be main driver of transition of power in Russia in the last century.
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