World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? - Page 191

slammer · #**3801** 05.03.2022, 09:35

	Quote:	komsomolez
	Not necessarily. It will force NATO to shoot down Russian planes, and probably to take out Russian artillery. Unless NATO would go for a full blown attack on Russian forces in UA (which could end up with Russia going tactical nuclear), the Russian shelling of UA cities in the East and South will continue regardless. A NATO intervention would probably lead to a rally around the flag in Russia, motivate the Russian forces, eliminate any remote chance of a coup and probably bring China firmly on Russia's side.

Sounds like the most likely outcome, add to that Russian planes won´t want to be shot down and you would see direct nato on Russia air combat. From that point on Nato would be at war with Russia.
I do worry a bit about all the hardware currently being sent to Nato´s eastern border, a short "accidental" overflight into disputed territory or a "Bedford incident" incident and things get hot.

komsomolez · #**3802** 05.03.2022, 09:38

	Quote:	Chuff
	I am honestly not convinced that China wants any of this over something as insignificant to them as Ukraine. The EU is heavily invested in the Chinese economy and vice versa but if the EU really had the will, it could, with difficulty and disruption of course, disentangle itself from that and set up more manufacturing in Europe as well as transfer things to elsewhere in the world such as Mexico which is getting increasingly competitive vs China. Chinas huge population is extremely susceptible to economic downturn and a government can quickly spend a crapton of money supporting those gazillions of people if jobs are lost. Who else is it going to depend on to help out if things with the EU go South... Russia, who now have a rapidly tanking economy and who are now facing even more long-term sanctions? China may end up having to support Russia financially which will strengthen their hold over Russia and turn the balance of power in that relationship even more in their favour, but it will also weaken them at the same time if they have to face sanctions and declining influence themselves. In the end this is just my armchair opinion and I could be wrong, but I would be really surprised if China risked alienating the Western world by joining Putin on his suicide mission to obliterate Ukraine. At some point I think the EU has to step in if diplomacy fails, and if they leave it too late to intervene then there will be little left of Ukraine to save and an independent Ukraine, with all of its close ties to Europe, will be a shameful footnote in history.

I don't know. You asked me what I think would happen. I am as clueless as you are.

Buenzli · #**3803** 05.03.2022, 09:40

Yet another consideration for China is its "belt and road" initiative:
Reuters: China’s Belt and Road strafed by Vladimir Putin

slammer · #**3804** 05.03.2022, 09:46

	Quote:	Buenzli
	Could you share how much of it is the oil price, and how much the taxes in Germany?

Tax hasn´t gone up, still at 19% and 65 cent energy tax as well as CO2 deductions at around 10 Cents a liter and last but not least oil storage deduction. In fact the government is trying to reduce taxes on fuel.
https://www.adac.de/news/aktueller-spritpreis/

But with over 105 USD for a barrel that price isn´t going down.

robBob · #**3805** 05.03.2022, 09:57

	Quote:	slammer
	Tax hasn´t gone up, still at 19% and 65 cent energy tax as well as CO2 deductions at around 10 Cents a liter and last but not least oil storage deduction. In fact the government is trying to reduce taxes on fuel. https://www.adac.de/news/aktueller-spritpreis/ But with over 105 USD for a barrel that price isn´t going down.

Same old story. Too quick to raise the overnight prices and too slow to lower em equals nice juicy profit.

komsomolez · #**3806** 05.03.2022, 10:09

This is another problem in this mess.

Volunteer Hackers Converge on Ukraine Conflict With No One in Charge https://nyti.ms/3vIZooX

marton · #**3807** 05.03.2022, 10:39

	Quote:	slammer
	Sounds like the most likely outcome, add to that Russian planes won´t want to be shot down and you would see direct nato on Russia air combat. From that point on Nato would be at war with Russia. I do worry a bit about all the hardware currently being sent to Nato´s eastern border, a short "accidental" overflight into disputed territory or a "Bedford incident" incident and things get hot.

Russian military planes are in violation of overflying other countries all the time, in the last week Sweden reported this.

Aleydis · #**3808** 05.03.2022, 10:48

I cannot access .ru websites, but live broadcast on 1tv.com and tass.com remain available... to be consumed in very small doses, otherwise a severe headache guaranteed 🤯

slammer · #**3809** 05.03.2022, 11:33

	Quote:	marton
	Russian military planes are in violation of overflying other countries all the time, in the last week Sweden reported this.

Yeah, but that is tit for tat, we overfly their airspace, they overfly ours.
And that is part of the problem, "Us" and "Them" Russia was never seen as an equal partner, or god forbid an allied country after the Warschau Pakt dissolved.
The cold war never ended, it just went into another phase.

greenmount · #**3810** 05.03.2022, 11:48

	Quote:	marton
	Russian military planes are in violation of overflying other countries all the time, in the last week Sweden reported this.

And not only....

But hey, they don't want no problems with the neighbours

komsomolez · #**3811** 05.03.2022, 12:04

	Quote:	Aleydis
	I cannot access .ru websites, but live broadcast on 1tv.com and tass.com remain available... to be consumed in very small doses, otherwise a severe headache guaranteed 🤯

My Russian has gotten very rusty, but it is still enough to grasp the main messages of the Russian news. I just watched 10 minutes 1TV and it is the most bizarre thing. Ukrainian terrorists with Western help attacking schools and kindergartens in the peaceful citiy of Mariupol - that of course has always been part of the peace-loving DNR.

Aleydis · #**3812** 05.03.2022, 12:21

Brain drain in Russia... again

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ia-ukraine-war

Aleydis · #**3813** 05.03.2022, 12:24

Komsomolez, thank you for providing the essence.

Moderators, I know posting a way to watch TV in Russian is not exactly appropriate for EF. Thank you for not deleting the post.

Reb77Br · #**3814** 05.03.2022, 12:35

	Quote:	komsomolez
	My Russian has gotten very rusty, but it is still enough to grasp the main messages of the Russian news. I just watched 10 minutes 1TV and it is the most bizarre thing. Ukrainian terrorists with Western help attacking schools and kindergartens in the peaceful citiy of Mariupol - that of course has always been part of the peace-loving DNR.

Ukrainian terrorists in Ukraine? Wouldn't even viewers of state-run Russian TV wonder if that's logical?

slammer · #**3815** 05.03.2022, 12:45

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Ukrainian terrorists in Ukraine? Wouldn't even viewers of state-run Russian TV wonder if that's logical?

Depends on how you spin it.
"Ukraine state sponsored Terrorists running amok among peaceful Russians in Donbas"
Or
"Baby eating Nazi drug pushers backed by western "democracies" destroy a Kindergarten."

etc. etc. etc!
Push it long enough and loud enough and even the most stupid will get it that Ukrainians are evil and probably have sex with their sisters.

Or as Herman Göring is quoted as saying:

Quote:

“Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.”

Boom, in a nutshell.

NotAllThere · #**3816** 05.03.2022, 13:11

Goebbels was writing in a far different time, when the concept of a free press wasn't quite as it is now. Nor were there so many avenues to get news. Of course for the gullible and conspiracy theorists, nothing has changed.

litespeed · #**3817** 05.03.2022, 13:20

I am convinced the only country that can influence Russia to end this war peacefully is China. The question is, do they want to.

robBob · #**3818** 05.03.2022, 13:59

	Quote:	litespeed
	I am convinced the only country that can influence Russia to end this war peacefully is China. The question is, do they want to.

Who knows! China and the Ukraine have had a significant relationship till now with China getting a decent amount of high tech and the Ukraine getting infrastructure.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whats-s...onship-ukraine

slammer · #**3819** 05.03.2022, 14:03

	Quote:	NotAllThere
	Goebbels was writing in a far different time, when the concept of a free press wasn't quite as it is now. Nor were there so many avenues to get news. Of course for the gullible and conspiracy theorists, nothing has changed.

Göring, not Goebbels.
And then again, what free press, that concept has long left the table. Now news is more biased left or right or slightly right or slightly left, than it is truly free.
But it doesn´t matter, as we saw during the Trumpian era the news that people listened to in the US was rather leaning to the right for instance, that spilled over to Europe. Russias news is Putin centered and that is shouting that Ukraine is the enemy.

NotAllThere · #**3820** 05.03.2022, 14:36

"Bias" and "free" are not mutually exclusive concepts. A paper can be biased and still free. It's when the government controls the media that there's a problem. That certainly is not the case in most Western nations. You can watch Fox and CNN. And Al Jazeera. (But not RT!). Or read the Telegraph and the Guardian.