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  #381  
Old 06.05.2014, 10:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Journalists in Russia got awarded for their "Service to the Fatherland" last week:

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The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, secretly gave prestigious awards to pro-Kremlin journalists for their "objective coverage" of the events leading up to the March annexation of Crimea, it has emerged.


Putin awarded medals of the "Order of Service to the Fatherland" to 300 journalists including several editors, directors and television hosts known for their Kremlin-friendly coverage in an executive order signed on 22 April that was not made public. After the well respected newspaper Vedomosti first published details of the awards on Monday, presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the order had been signed but declined to provide details.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...jective-crimea

There were also rumors going around that the head of Russia TV 1 channel tried to kill himself after meeting with Putin a few days ago:
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Baku – APA. Head of Russian Television Channel One Konstantin Ernst attempted to commit suicide, APA reports quoting blog of newsstreet.ru. However, this information has been deleted from the blog.

According to information, Ernst went home after phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on April 30. Thereafter, his wife heard a gunshot from his cabinet at home. Injuring from neck and tongue, Ernst was immediately taken to the Clinical Hospital of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation. He is currently absent-minded.

Neither hospital nor Television Channel One commented on the information.
http://en.apa.az/xeber_head_of_russi..._r_210738.html
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  #382  
Old 06.05.2014, 12:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin has categorically proved that a) Russians are chess champions for good reasons and b) we still live in a time when borders can be redrawn.

In the short-medium term, the entire Ukraine is lost, and Europe will enter something similar to the cold war. Putin set out to destabilise the country and make the next election difficult and/or meaningless, and he is close to reaching this objective. Sovereignty means having the exclusive claim on legitimate force..and the Ukraine government is far from having that claim. Disorganised and under-resourced, they have no chance, and the people will rapidly get tired and apathetic.

Europe and the US have acted with extreme lethargy and weakness, not really realising what is at stake here...what has caused World Wars in the past has been forgotten, and red flags are popping up everywhere. They could be shaping events, rather than standing by like spectators. Sanctions? Vladimir must be laughing his ar$se off. Putin has sacrificed his international trust and credibility; one doesn't do that lightly. Leaders need to be actively and militarily re-enforcing sovereignties closer to the conflict, preventing any spill over that could arise.

I fear this tension will be setting in for the medium term at the very least.
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  #383  
Old 06.05.2014, 23:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems the Tatars in Crimea are not too happy with their new Russian masters. That's strange, I thought Crimea voted 99% in favor to join Russia?



http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...st/499385.html
Whether the soldiers are Russians or Ukrainians, I love their uniforms. Look miles better than what we had in the 1980ies and 90ies
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  #384  
Old 07.05.2014, 00:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin has categorically proved that a) Russians are chess champions for good reasons and b) we still live in a time when borders can be redrawn.

In the short-medium term, the entire Ukraine is lost, and Europe will enter something similar to the cold war. Putin set out to destabilise the country and make the next election difficult and/or meaningless, and he is close to reaching this objective. Sovereignty means having the exclusive claim on legitimate force..and the Ukraine government is far from having that claim. Disorganised and under-resourced, they have no chance, and the people will rapidly get tired and apathetic.

Europe and the US have acted with extreme lethargy and weakness, not really realising what is at stake here...what has caused World Wars in the past has been forgotten, and red flags are popping up everywhere. They could be shaping events, rather than standing by like spectators. Sanctions? Vladimir must be laughing his ar$se off. Putin has sacrificed his international trust and credibility; one doesn't do that lightly. Leaders need to be actively and militarily re-enforcing sovereignties closer to the conflict, preventing any spill over that could arise.

I fear this tension will be setting in for the medium term at the very least.
No, the Ukraine is not lost. BUT will lose a big slice in the East definitely. The area Russia needs is the area between Kupyansk and Donetsk. Putin may even go for Kharkov to Melitopol. You have to bear in mind that for example both the German Foreign Minister Steinmeier and the Swiss Foreign Minister Burkhalter are basically pro Russia minded and have good friends in the upper echelons in Russia.

The Eastern Ukraine was a liability for the Ukraine right from the beginning in 1991, as it is clearly a Russian land.

Putin btw. will try to find a way to placate the Tatars, possibly by giving them an area inside what is now still Ukraine, just north of the Crimea. Half a dozen flies with one hit
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  #385  
Old 07.05.2014, 00:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin has categorically proved that a) Russians are chess champions for good reasons and b) we still live in a time when borders can be redrawn.

In the short-medium term, the entire Ukraine is lost, and Europe will enter something similar to the cold war. Putin set out to destabilise the country and make the next election difficult and/or meaningless, and he is close to reaching this objective. Sovereignty means having the exclusive claim on legitimate force..and the Ukraine government is far from having that claim. Disorganised and under-resourced, they have no chance, and the people will rapidly get tired and apathetic.

Europe and the US have acted with extreme lethargy and weakness, not really realising what is at stake here...what has caused World Wars in the past has been forgotten, and red flags are popping up everywhere. They could be shaping events, rather than standing by like spectators. Sanctions? Vladimir must be laughing his ar$se off. Putin has sacrificed his international trust and credibility; one doesn't do that lightly. Leaders need to be actively and militarily re-enforcing sovereignties closer to the conflict, preventing any spill over that could arise.

I fear this tension will be setting in for the medium term at the very least.
About "Putin has categorically proved that a) Russians are chess champions for good reasons"

True but chessmen are not alive. Putin's problem is he is playing with chessmen who have their own ideas, agendas and aspirations!
The key question is can he control them
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  #386  
Old 07.05.2014, 07:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "Putin has categorically proved that a) Russians are chess champions for good reasons"

True but chessmen are not alive. Putin's problem is he is playing with chessmen who have their own ideas, agendas and aspirations!
The key question is can he control them
But he has shown that he can MANIPULATE people, that he can influence people, AND that he can give people the impression that HE fulfils their agendas and aspirations
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  #387  
Old 07.05.2014, 08:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

When I talk Chess, I was metaphorically referring to strategy. Putin is well aware of his opponents and what he can do and when. He knows that the US is way too debt and conflict laden to take on a nuclear super power. In addition, the EU government can't act efficiently or decisively enough to order pizza let alone do anything to shape this conflict. As for NATO...I think they've grown lazy and caught out by forgetting the very threat for which they were created.

Wolli, Putin's goal not to take over the Ukraine, but to isolate it and let it either implode or give Russia an excuse to use overt military force, until a pro-Russian government is returned to power. It's a fine line for Kiev that they are neither experienced nor equipped to walk.

At the end of the day: Ukraine is on it's own. But the West needs to quietly and effectively strengthen neighbouring lands in order to avoid spill over. Eastern countries have burnt bridges to join to NATO, so it's time NATO comes to the party.
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  #388  
Old 07.05.2014, 10:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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When I talk Chess, I was metaphorically referring to strategy. Putin is well aware of his opponents and what he can do and when. He knows that the US is way too debt and conflict laden to take on a nuclear super power. In addition, the EU government can't act efficiently or decisively enough to order pizza let alone do anything to shape this conflict. As for NATO...I think they've grown lazy and caught out by forgetting the very threat for which they were created.

Wolli, Putin's goal not to take over the Ukraine, but to isolate it and let it either implode or give Russia an excuse to use overt military force, until a pro-Russian government is returned to power. It's a fine line for Kiev that they are neither experienced nor equipped to walk.

At the end of the day: Ukraine is on it's own. But the West needs to quietly and effectively strengthen neighbouring lands in order to avoid spill over. Eastern countries have burnt bridges to join to NATO, so it's time NATO comes to the party.
To isolate Ukraine is THE SAME as to destroy it as an independent country. A pro-Russian government will arrange that Ukraine joins Russia. Or at least hand the eastern half to Russia
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  #389  
Old 07.05.2014, 12:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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To isolate Ukraine is THE SAME as to destroy it as an independent country. A pro-Russian government will arrange that Ukraine joins Russia. Or at least hand the eastern half to Russia
Exactly.

Without outside military help (and who would dare give it), the Ukraine is reliant on it's own citizens and forces to fend off Russia. Not impossible, but unlikely. Therefore I stand by what I said before: In the short-medium term, the Ukraine as we know it is lost.
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  #390  
Old 07.05.2014, 13:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Oh - and lest we forget - China has some pretty major vested interests in the region.... wheat
China sues Ukraine for breach of US$3b loan-for-grain agreement
So far they've been sitting nicely on the sidelines.... but for how long still?

P.
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  #391  
Old 07.05.2014, 14:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Oh - and lest we forget - China has some pretty major vested interests in the region.... wheat
China sues Ukraine for breach of US$3b loan-for-grain agreement
So far they've been sitting nicely on the sidelines.... but for how long still?

P.
I doubt very much China will go to war over $3 billion...it's peanuts to what a military offensive costs.
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  #392  
Old 07.05.2014, 15:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I doubt very much China will go to war over $3 billion...it's peanuts to what a military offensive costs.
Wheat, not peanuts

I am not suggesting that they would go to war, but I'm pretty sure they will "lean in" in order to have their contractual rights enforced.
Another relevant link
China To Lease 3 Million Hectares Of Ukrainian Farmland (sept 2013)

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Old 07.05.2014, 21:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exactly.

Without outside military help (and who would dare give it), the Ukraine is reliant on it's own citizens and forces to fend off Russia. Not impossible, but unlikely. Therefore I stand by what I said before: In the short-medium term, the Ukraine as we know it is lost.
If the Ukraine is lost short - medium term, it is totally lost in the long-term. For a variety of reasons, Putin apparently does not want a full scale take-over of the Ukraine and only wants the East. He has enough political adversaries in St. Petersburg, Moscow and some other major Russian cities and can well do without Kiev and the Western Ukraine. I still believe that Russia WILL get the sizeable slice of Eastern Ukraine it wants
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  #394  
Old 08.05.2014, 09:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From Russian TV English speaking news program: "Good evening. We are Russia Today. You will be Russia tomorrow."
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Old 08.05.2014, 10:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Why is Putin suddenly backing off the fake referendum plans for the East of Ukraine that he had been pushing for? Did Switzerland's Burkhalter do something to him in yesterdays meeting? Are things not going as Putin planned (ie: did he lose control of the separatists?) Did financial pressure from the West have an effect? Are other forces inside Russia pressuirng him to stop because of the strained relations with Europe and the rest of the civilized world?

In any case, the separatists in East Ukraine that rose up under Russian support and guidance have now suddenly found themselves "hung out to dry" at exactly the moment they expected the Russian military to roll in and save them (ie: in the face of the Ukraine military operations and upcoming votes). There's alot of anger at Putin in East Ukraine right now, he promised to "protect" them, and then turned his back on them and betrayed them in their moment of need.

Quote:
It remained unclear whether the pro-Russia gunmen who have taken over public buildings in a number of towns in the Donetsk region would drop their referendum plans. Outside the main headquarters of the separatist movement, an occupied government building in Donetsk, there was confusion at Putin's statement. A group of men guarding the entrance insisted that it was impossible Putin had offered support for the Kiev elections and asked to delay the referendum, and were certain it was a false story dreamed up by nefarious Ukrainian and western media.
"So Russia has abandoned us as well," said Natalia Medvedenko, 58. "Well we will just have to fight the fascists on our own. But I still don't quite believe it."


In rebel-held Slavyansk a member of the militia who gave his name as Rustem described Putin as a coward who was "afraid of losing his money". Loading sandbags into a truck, he said: "Instead of helping Russian people here, he is betraying us. He will pay for this with a revolution in Red Square. Russian people will not stand by and watch this happen."
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  #396  
Old 08.05.2014, 10:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

BTW, Putin looks too "plastic" after his facelift a couple of years ago, I know he's vain and all about image, but he really should have just stayed as he was...



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Old 08.05.2014, 17:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Why is Putin suddenly backing off the fake referendum plans for the East of Ukraine that he had been pushing for? Did Switzerland's Burkhalter do something to him in yesterdays meeting? Are things not going as Putin planned (ie: did he lose control of the separatists?) Did financial pressure from the West have an effect? Are other forces inside Russia pressuirng him to stop because of the strained relations with Europe and the rest of the civilized world?

In any case, the separatists in East Ukraine that rose up under Russian support and guidance have now suddenly found themselves "hung out to dry" at exactly the moment they expected the Russian military to roll in and save them (ie: in the face of the Ukraine military operations and upcoming votes). There's alot of anger at Putin in East Ukraine right now, he promised to "protect" them, and then turned his back on them and betrayed them in their moment of need.


About "Why is Putin suddenly backing off the fake referendum plans for the East of Ukraine" Well he will only support it if he is 100% sure of winning; otherwise he will look very silly
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  #398  
Old 08.05.2014, 22:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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BTW, Putin looks too "plastic" after his facelift a couple of years ago, I know he's vain and all about image, but he really should have just stayed as he was...
Sh*t I had totally missed that!!
Guess who gave him the foolish idea?
His little italian clown comrade Silvio, must have been him!

Never trust a vain man, no I won't...

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Old 08.05.2014, 23:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "Why is Putin suddenly backing off the fake referendum plans for the East of Ukraine" Well he will only support it if he is 100% sure of winning; otherwise he will look very silly
Well… with a won referendum, he gets at best half of the country and a huge NATO base at its border in the western part.
With a unified Ukraine, he gets it all. No war needed, just time. It's not the first time and it won't be the last. Same in Kazachstan, btw. (the Kazachs had a nationalistic pan-turkish period but they are over it now, back to post-soviet business). Azerbaijan has the same issue but is more ambiguous towards both Moscow and the west incl. Turkey. Georgia is a whole story for itself. Time is a wonderful thing when you are in the Kreml - time is Washington's worse enemy, they need the result within a year for political use in elections or the benefit of the action is lost. Guess who has more interest in winning time. At the end, money wins, and even the most nationalistic ukrainian businessman doesn't need two seconds to understand that the money is not west, it's north. Always has been and always will be. They want the money, don't worry, they will get it from where the money is. And that's definitely neither Berlin nor Washington.
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Old 09.05.2014, 07:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well… with a won referendum, he gets at best half of the country and a huge NATO base at its border in the western part.
With a unified Ukraine, he gets it all. No war needed, just time. It's not the first time and it won't be the last. Same in Kazachstan, btw. (the Kazachs had a nationalistic pan-turkish period but they are over it now, back to post-soviet business). Azerbaijan has the same issue but is more ambiguous towards both Moscow and the west incl. Turkey. Georgia is a whole story for itself. Time is a wonderful thing when you are in the Kreml - time is Washington's worse enemy, they need the result within a year for political use in elections or the benefit of the action is lost. Guess who has more interest in winning time. At the end, money wins, and even the most nationalistic ukrainian businessman doesn't need two seconds to understand that the money is not west, it's north. Always has been and always will be. They want the money, don't worry, they will get it from where the money is. And that's definitely neither Berlin nor Washington.


About "With a unified Ukraine, he gets it all" Including a lot of anti-Russian people who are willing to use violence; look at Odessa. Are you sure Putin wants that?
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