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  #4001  
Old 07.03.2022, 14:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So Russian entities are to settle whatever financial obligations they have in Rubles, Switzerland on the list
https://tass.com/politics/1418197

Could someone explain to me what consequences this will have in practice? Except breach of contract that is...
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  #4002  
Old 07.03.2022, 14:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Last item (lower right corner) kind of baffles me.
Are there vending machines there?
That is to pay the entrance fee for the bunker.
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Old 07.03.2022, 14:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I prefer this one

Attachment 143539
I'm stuck at 2, I think I'd reach for a bottle and a few glasses at that point. I don't think I've the flexibility to reach 7.
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Old 07.03.2022, 14:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So Russian entities are to settle whatever financial obligations they have in Rubles, Switzerland on the list
https://tass.com/politics/1418197

Could someone explain to me what consequences this will have in practice? Except breach of contract that is...
It's not necessarily breach of contract, depends on how the contracts are written. However, it would imply that any foreign entity would need to keep roubles in Russian banks subject to massive devaluation without any way to repatriate them leading to losses due to FX fluctuation. Some entities that might have large amounts to settle might decide to purchase some property as a defensive mechanism, but in this environment such an "investment" would be quite sensitive.

It's a massive breach of trust and foreign investors do not forget such measures for years to come even if business resumes in the future. The risk premium of doing business in Russia will remain quite high for years to come.

On another topic, we're getting more and more insights into the reasons for putler's invasion. So far, this is the most ridiculous one

Russian Church Leader Appears to Blame Gay Pride Parades for Ukraine War
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  #4005  
Old 07.03.2022, 14:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's not necessarily breach of contract, depends on how the contracts are written. However, it would imply that any foreign entity would need to keep roubles in Russian banks subject to massive devaluation without any way to repatriate them leading to losses due to FX fluctuation. Some entities that might have large amounts to settle might decide to purchase some property as a defensive mechanism, but in this environment such an "investment" would be quite sensitive.

It's a massive breach of trust and foreign investors do not forget such measures for years to come even if business resumes in the future. The risk premium of doing business in Russia will remain quite high for years to come.

On another topic, we're getting more and more insights into the reasons for putler's invasion. So far, this is the most ridiculous one

Russian Church Leader Appears to Blame Gay Pride Parades for Ukraine War
Gay Nazis? Just how gullible is the Russian churchgoer?
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  #4006  
Old 07.03.2022, 14:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The whole point of Poland sending their MIGs, is that is what the Ukrainian Air Force already have. Poland then get new jets from the US to replace them as they have time to learn a new aircraft (hopefully).
Polish Air Force is flying F-16 since 2006.
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Old 07.03.2022, 14:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I'm sure if Not the Nine O'clock News was around today, they would produce a 4 minute warning sketch of the BBC's
Question Time program like this 1980's classic.

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  #4008  
Old 07.03.2022, 14:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm stuck at 2, I think I'd reach for a bottle and a few glasses at that point. I don't think I've the flexibility to reach 7.
Some won't even make it to 1
https://youtu.be/3edi2Wkr5YI
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  #4009  
Old 07.03.2022, 15:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So Russian entities are to settle whatever financial obligations they have in Rubles, Switzerland on the list
https://tass.com/politics/1418197

Could someone explain to me what consequences this will have in practice? Except breach of contract that is...
Clearly, they are trying to avoid meeting their foreign currency obligations.

I don't know how this will work in practice, without Swift they cannot make electronic payments. It will be hard to deliver huge sacks of rubles when there are no flights between Russia and most countries listed.

The value of the ruble dropped another 20% today, around 140 rubles to the US $ now. They will need some very large sacks
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Old 07.03.2022, 15:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Clearly, they are trying to avoid meeting their foreign currency obligations.

I don't know how this will work in practice, without Swift they cannot make electronic payments. It will be hard to deliver huge sacks of rubles when there are no flights between Russia and most countries listed.

The value of the ruble dropped another 20% today, around 140 rubles to the US $ now. They will need some very large sacks
Well, some banks are still connected to SWIFT, but the rouble is not really a convertible currency so a western bank will not accept it. The local entity will have to convert the rubles into some convertible currency and transfer this abroad, but as we know, they already imposed capital controls so this isn't an option either. The roubles are stuck in Russia and will be melting like spring snow unless some assets are purchased. This of course, carries it's own substantial risk and is not a trivial exercise. Typically, corporate procedures for capital expenditure are very risk-averse.
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  #4011  
Old 07.03.2022, 15:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Another round of talks is currently ongoing between Ukraine and Russia. Hoping for some progress.
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Old 07.03.2022, 16:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From The Times (paywall)

Russia has offered to bring a halt to its onslaught in Ukraine “in a moment” if Kyiv accepts a string of conditions that would be akin to admitting defeat in the 12-day-old conflict.

Speaking as both sides were set to meet today for talks, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, demanded that Ukraine stop its military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, recognise Crimea as Russian territory and accept the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states.

“We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,” Peskov said, despite widespread international condemnation of Russia’s aggression and invasion of its southern neighbour.


If Ukraine admits defeat at this point and agrees entirely, we'll still all know that it was Russia (Putin) that lost.
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  #4013  
Old 07.03.2022, 16:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,”
This is rich! Unbelievable
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Old 07.03.2022, 16:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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From The Times (paywall)

Russia has offered to bring a halt to its onslaught in Ukraine “in a moment” if Kyiv accepts a string of conditions that would be akin to admitting defeat in the 12-day-old conflict.

Speaking as both sides were set to meet today for talks, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, demanded that Ukraine stop its military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, recognise Crimea as Russian territory and accept the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states.

“We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,” Peskov said, despite widespread international condemnation of Russia’s aggression and invasion of its southern neighbour.


If Ukraine admits defeat at this point and agrees entirely, we'll still all know that it was Russia (Putin) that lost.
Does this bullshit proposal even include Russian withdrawal or is the offer just to "halt in a moment"?
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Old 07.03.2022, 16:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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From The Times (paywall)

Russia has offered to bring a halt to its onslaught in Ukraine “in a moment” if Kyiv accepts a string of conditions that would be akin to admitting defeat in the 12-day-old conflict.

Speaking as both sides were set to meet today for talks, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, demanded that Ukraine stop its military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, recognise Crimea as Russian territory and accept the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent states.

“We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,” Peskov said, despite widespread international condemnation of Russia’s aggression and invasion of its southern neighbour.


If Ukraine admits defeat at this point and agrees entirely, we'll still all know that it was Russia (Putin) that lost.
as soon as zelenski accepts this bs, zelenski is done
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  #4016  
Old 07.03.2022, 16:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It feels so empty to read about these talks — no representatives from any other country to help and mediate, no Red Cross or any other humanitarian organization to talk on behalf of the Ukrainian civilians. These talks don’t seem to be set up for any success. Only Lukashenko is there providing the room. This is hopeless.
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Old 07.03.2022, 18:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

With Ukraine practically arming any civilian who can hold a gun and the rest building IEDs - who can say who actually is a civilian?

Not blaming the citizens defending their homes and home-country, but it's 2022 and the distinction between soldier and civilian can hardly be made anymore in most conflicts.

Ukraine hopes to use the talks to buy time until they can shore up their defenses to a point where the cost becomes too high for Russia.
Russia just wants to bye time to reach their military goals.

NATO has dangled the EU-membership and NATO-membership carrot in front of Ukraine for a very long time, while Ukraine has dangled that same carrot as stick in front of Russia.

Now Ukraine is trying to force the EU's hands and Russia is pushing against it.
Civilians will be losers.
EU will pay.
US is already profiting (LNG and crude from the US vs Russia, huge amounts of assets can be scooped at a discount).

Same-old, same-old.
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  #4018  
Old 07.03.2022, 18:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, this is beyond my comprehension. I feel there's some hidden in plain sight thing I cannot see:

Quote:
The Government of the Russian Federation has approved on Monday a list of foreign states and territories that commit unfriendly actions against Russia, its companies, and citizens.

The list includes the United States and Canada, the EU states, the UK (including Jersey, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar), Ukraine, Montenegro, Switzerland, Albania, Andorra, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, San Marino, North Macedonia, and also Japan, South Korea, Australia, Micronesia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan (considered a territory of China, but ruled by its own administration since 1949).

The government noted that according to this decree, Russian citizens and companies, the state itself, its regions and municipalities that have foreign exchange obligations to foreign creditors from the list of unfriendly countries will be able to pay them in rubles. The new temporary procedure applies to payments exceeding 10 mln rubles per month (or a similar amount in foreign currency).
https://tass.com/politics/1418197

So, what's happening here? Foreigner, I declare you unfriendly, therefore I can pay you in rubles in spite of currency controls? Finance people, help! Only thing I understand is 10 million rubles is about 60K€.
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Old 07.03.2022, 18:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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NATO has dangled the EU-membership and NATO-membership carrot in front of Ukraine for a very long time, while Ukraine has dangled that same carrot as stick in front of Russia.

Now Ukraine is trying to force the EU's hands and Russia is pushing against it.
Civilians will be losers.
EU will pay.
US is already profiting (LNG and crude from the US vs Russia, huge amounts of assets can be scooped at a discount).

Same-old, same-old.
Yes, same old nonsense.
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Old 07.03.2022, 19:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Finance people, help! Only thing I understand is 10 million rubles is about 60K€.
It means if you have euro to collect from your Russian customers you're 10 days late

I know of a few companies (not my employer) who are trying to get goods instead of payment, but it's a bit uneven negotiation and very much depends on the strength of the relationships
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