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Old 09.03.2022, 07:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russians waiting in massive queues after McDonald's announced closure of all 850 restaurants in Russia

McDonalds signaled both the beginning and the end of democracy in Russia.

This was in 1990
I remember this time and these pictures of McDonalds opening in Moscow, and also thought about this yesterday while reading about the closures of McDonalds. I also thought about the peaceful withdrawal of the Russian military from across the Eastern Europe at the time. Russian tanks were stationed everywhere, they were in Berlin and could have created the bloodbath when the USSR collapsed. We were so grateful that it was peaceful then.
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  #4082  
Old 09.03.2022, 07:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am not a war monger however there is a moral duty for liberal democracies to support Ukraine so long as their are people their willing to fight for their country.

I am also concerned over escalation, yet on the other hand I also realise that Putin cannot be appeased. A fine needs to be trodden. Whilst the events that have led up to this invasion are perhaps not so black and white as some would have us believe, what is undeniable is that a sovereign country has been invaded by another which is as black and white as there is.

I think that Ukraine's resistance has been nothing short of inspiring in the face of such force. I pray for this level of courage.



Amazing!
Wasn´t implying you to be a war monger in any way, shape or form.
However there is simply no easy way out, Ukraine is not going to roll over, Russia is not going to stop and Nato can´t be seen not doing anything.
We all stand to lose, except arms manufacturers, at least they will go out on a high note.
For me I´m still in awe how the German government can suddenly find 150 billion for arms but accept strikes from Kindergarten teachers wanting a bit more pay.
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  #4083  
Old 09.03.2022, 07:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I remember this time and these pictures of McDonalds opening in Moscow, and also thought about this yesterday while reading about the closures of McDonalds. I also thought about the peaceful withdrawal of the Russian military from across the Eastern Europe at the time. Russian tanks were stationed everywhere, they were in Berlin and could have created the bloodbath when the USSR collapsed. We were so grateful that it was peaceful then.
True, but I think they secured pro-Russian regimes before the wall collapsed in the rest of the countries, probably not in those countries who could have kept some sort of anti-communist resistance. It was really difficult for those country who were 90% influenced by USSR. At Yalta they decided not only who goes to whom, but also the percentage of influence etc. And Putin says the biggest catastrophe of the 20th century was the collapse of USSR? That's....OK, but we all know now who he is.
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Old 09.03.2022, 07:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, but I think they secured pro-Russian regimes before the wall collapsed in the rest of the countries, probably not in those countries who could have some sort of anti-communist resistance.
They could have created so much mess in Europe and in Russia during the collapse of the communist regime, they had a lot of weapons everywhere. Wars actually broke out in some Soviet republics after the fall of the USSR, but not in Russia and not in Europe. I think Gorbachev is to be fully credited for this.
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Old 09.03.2022, 07:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, but I think they secured pro-Russian regimes before the wall collapsed in the rest of the countries, probably not in those countries who could have some sort of anti-communist resistance.
I believe these pro-russian regimes established themselves and were not necessarily engineered by Russia at the time . If you think about it, when communism collapsed, the only people who could rally quickly, had experience in the state apparatus and knew what power is were the former communists. At the same time, giving up power would have put them in literal mortal danger (Romania was a painful example to all of them).

It was only later, once the dust settled when Moscow realized it could start using this to their advantage, but Yeltsin was still somehow cozying up to the West. It started in earnest with Putin in the late 90s
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Old 09.03.2022, 07:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was only later, once the dust settled when Moscow realized it could start using this to their advantage, but Yeltsin was still somehow cozying up to the West. It started in earnest with Putin in the late 90s
Yep, I agree, plus we had Gorbachev when the wall collapsed and say what you wish, but he was a rational guy.

Leonie, yes, I totally agree btw.

If you think more of it, he really thought he could reform the system. He's defo not the bad guy in all of these.
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Old 09.03.2022, 07:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was only later, once the dust settled when Moscow realized it could start using this to their advantage, but Yeltsin was still somehow cozying up to the West. It started in earnest with Putin in the late 90s
There was basically no Putin in the late 90s. Putin started in August 1999 as the deputy Prime Minister, immediately appointed as the acting Prime Minister, and in 31 December 1999 became the acting President, when Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned. Some historians say that this was a quiet coup in Kremlin caused by the NATO bombing of Serbia. Apparently this scared the living hell out of some powerful people in Russia and caused Yeltsin to be replaced by Putin.
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Old 09.03.2022, 08:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There was basically no Putin in the late 90s. Putin started in August 1999 as the deputy Prime Minister, immediately appointed as the acting Prime Minister, and in 31 December 1999 became the acting President, when Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned. Some historians say that this was a quiet coup in Kremlin caused by the NATO bombing of Serbia. Apparently this scared the living hell out of some powerful people in Russia and caused Yeltsin to be replaced by Putin.
Well, he was in KGB and probably prepared to take over. An extremely ambitious guy.

Anyways, back to the awful present: I think that Mothers Committee in Russia is banned now? He assured "mothers" that no recruits go to Ukraine yet we see only teenagers captured.

In which kind of apocalyptic world do we live when a 19 y.o. has to fight for his country or even worse, be sent to fight against another one? We all thought this is a thing of the past...at least in Europe.
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Old 09.03.2022, 08:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Could it be….?
The US has dismissed the Polish Mig29 offer as provokative and Selensky has put Ukraine neutrality on the table. There could be a diplomatic solution after all.
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  #4090  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I remember this time and these pictures of McDonalds opening in Moscow, and also thought about this yesterday while reading about the closures of McDonalds.
The line to McDonald's in 90s is now replaced with the lines to the ATMs.
Moscow, 2 a.m.: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...660792875&_rdr
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  #4091  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For me I´m still in awe how the German government can suddenly find 150 billion for arms but accept strikes from Kindergarten teachers wanting a bit more pay.
ask the teachers what they prefer: to be shelled or to have higher salaries
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  #4092  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The line to McDonald's in 90s is now replaced with the lines to the ATMs.
Moscow, 2 a.m.: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...660792875&_rdr
looks beatiful
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Old 09.03.2022, 08:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Could it be….?
Selensky has put Ukraine neutrality on the table. There could be a diplomatic solution after all.
Ze can put his penis on the piano. Nato is in UA Constitution
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  #4094  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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. At the same time, giving up power would have put them in literal mortal danger (Romania was a painful example to all of them).
Yes, I unfortunately saw that video..
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  #4095  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ze can put his penis on the piano. Nato is in UA Constitution
Constitutions can be amended.
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  #4096  
Old 09.03.2022, 08:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ze can put his penis on the piano. Nato is in UA Constitution
It was not before 2019, so of course constitutions can be changed.

I know that everyone says there is no road to victory for Putin. I agree. The problem is there is also difficult to see a road to victory for Ukraine - unless you expect that they can either drive Russia out of UA or for Russia to collapse and give up. Both very unlikely in the short term. So horrendous suffering to come and a country left in ruins.

Of course a negotiated solution would mean that Putin stays in power and - apart form sanctions - gets away with this. Which is an awful thought.

But let us assume Russia would accept armed neutrality, concession of Crimea and a international peacekeeping force in Eastern Ukraine in order for it to retreat. Even if sanctions would be pulled back somewhat (would need to be part of the deal), I would think that most of the damage is done and some "tectonic" changes are irreversible. That would leave Russia arguably weakened for decades. UA in the mean time could avoid the worst, start rebuilding with international support and play a long game of getting stronger while the enemy gets weaker.

Probably delusional, just trying "to game things out" as the alleged experts do. Would like to hear your thoughts thought. In the mean time I can get some coffee and get real.
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Old 09.03.2022, 09:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Probably delusional, just trying "to game things out" as the alleged experts do. Would like to hear your thoughts thought. In the mean time I can get some coffee and get real.
I agree with your thought process, one addition. If the west gets involved in a negotiation, the quid-pro-quo for somewhat reduced sanctions should be paying huge reparation to Ukraine. Otherwise the deterrence for the future would be nil.
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Old 09.03.2022, 09:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Wasn´t implying you to be a war monger in any way, shape or form.
However there is simply no easy way out, Ukraine is not going to roll over, Russia is not going to stop and Nato can´t be seen not doing anything.
We all stand to lose, except arms manufacturers, at least they will go out on a high note.
For me I´m still in awe how the German government can suddenly find 150 billion for arms but accept strikes from Kindergarten teachers wanting a bit more pay.
You should know by now.
;-)

Governments have as much money as they need to spend.

If they really want to buy something, they'll find the money. Though, Germany has developed a somewhat dangerous pattern of declaring a "net zero" debt ceiling - and then adding on top of it as some sort of "exception". Like a smoker or an alcoholic who has a relapse. It's now been done so often that people are probably seeing through the ruse by now and will make arguing for budget cuts more and more difficult in the future.
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Old 09.03.2022, 09:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree with your thought process, one addition. If the west gets involved in a negotiation, the quid-pro-quo for somewhat reduced sanctions should be paying huge reparation to Ukraine. Otherwise the deterrence for the future would be nil.
Reparations worked so well for Europe after 1918.

Best thing ever.
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Old 09.03.2022, 09:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was not before 2019, so of course constitutions can be changed.

I know that everyone says there is no road to victory for Putin. I agree. The problem is there is also difficult to see a road to victory for Ukraine - unless you expect that they can either drive Russia out of UA or for Russia to collapse and give up. Both very unlikely in the short term. So horrendous suffering to come and a country left in ruins.

Of course a negotiated solution would mean that Putin stays in power and - apart form sanctions - gets away with this. Which is an awful thought.

But let us assume Russia would accept armed neutrality, concession of Crimea and a international peacekeeping force in Eastern Ukraine in order for it to retreat. Even if sanctions would be pulled back somewhat (would need to be part of the deal), I would think that most of the damage is done and some "tectonic" changes are irreversible. That would leave Russia arguably weakened for decades. UA in the mean time could avoid the worst, start rebuilding with international support and play a long game of getting stronger while the enemy gets weaker.

Probably delusional, just trying "to game things out" as the alleged experts do. Would like to hear your thoughts thought. In the mean time I can get some coffee and get real.
I'm also curious as to how this ends. I expect:

- Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian
- UA recognises LH DK as independent (or at least allows for quasi autonomy) - tough question might be whether this applies to only the currently rebel held parts or a greater area
- UA agrees not to join NATO
- UA agrees not to join EU
- RU pulls back and no longer funds separatists in LH/DK and no further enlargement of these
- ROW drops sanctions (possibly phased)
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