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09.03.2022, 09:22
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Could it be….?
............................
There could be a diplomatic solution after all. | | | | | A "solution" as cynical as the invitation to send Ukrainian refugees through humanitarian corridors leading to Russia.
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09.03.2022, 09:22
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | I agree with your thought process, one addition. If the west gets involved in a negotiation, the quid-pro-quo for somewhat reduced sanctions should be paying huge reparation to Ukraine. Otherwise the deterrence for the future would be nil. | | | | | One of the bigger issues how the West will deal with war crimes. It has almost gone beyond the point of no return that Putin will have to be held accountable for these, not sure how they'll ever get him to the Hague.
The biggest problems with a conflict like this is the longer it goes for, the more difficult the legacy socio-political issues are to deal with...people forget what peacetime life is like. For example, armed civilians develop a combat mindset...and when the conflict dissipates, it can be difficult to return to normal life. The thousands of small arms wlll never get returned, and may come back to haunt a return to normality. Dispossession, permanent injury, crime, looting, rape, exploitation.. these are the coal-face horrors of war that haven't quite surfaced on social media yet.
__________________ So sayeth the 'Speed * I do look like my avatar | The following 4 users would like to thank litespeed for this useful post: | | 
09.03.2022, 09:26
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Reparations worked so well for Europe after 1918.
Best thing ever. | | | | |
They didn't work after 18, but they worked after 45 so it seems we have learned how to implement them in a way to deter. Or you believe it is someone else that should pay for the senseless destruction of putler?
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09.03.2022, 09:34
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | A "solution" as cynical as the invitation to send Ukrainian refugees through humanitarian corridors leading to Russia. | | | | | Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on solutions. I hope they will be more realistic than saying Russia must capitulate, hand over Putin to The Hague and pay reparations.
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09.03.2022, 09:36
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | It was not before 2019, so of course constitutions can be changed. | | | | | Interesting analysis here (just pre-invasion). | Quote: | |  | | | I'm also curious as to how this ends. I expect:
- Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian
- UA recognises LH DK as independent (or at least allows for quasi autonomy) - tough question might be whether this applies to only the currently rebel held parts or a greater area
- UA agrees not to join NATO
- UA agrees not to join EU
- RU pulls back and no longer funds separatists in LH/DK and no further enlargement of these
- ROW drops sanctions (possibly phased) | | | | | -ten, twenty years later, UA joins the United States of America and Europe... | This user would like to thank NotAllThere for this useful post: | | 
09.03.2022, 09:37
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on solutions. I hope they will be more realistic than saying Russia must capitulate, hand over Putin to The Hague and pay reparations. | | | | | I take it you're not really interested in my view anyway so let's leave it here. | The following 2 users groan at greenmount for this post: | | 
09.03.2022, 09:47
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | One of the bigger issues how the West will deal with war crimes. It has almost gone beyond the point of no return that Putin will have to be held accountable for these, not sure how they'll ever get him to the Hague.
The biggest problems with a conflict like this is the longer it goes for, the more difficult the legacy socio-political issues are to deal with...people forget what peacetime life is like. For example, armed civilians develop a combat mindset...and when the conflict dissipates, it can be difficult to return to normal life. The thousands of small arms wlll never get returned, and may come back to haunt a return to normality. Dispossession, permanent injury, crime, looting, rape, exploitation.. these are the coal-face horrors of war that haven't quite surfaced on social media yet. | | | | | I agree. A solution must be reached very soon otherwise we'll see even more disasters and tragedies... As if it's not enough to see that already two millions of people have run for their lives from Ukraine.
But what if he knows Ukrainians won't agree with all of his conditions and keeps killing civilians till it makes Nato intervene in UA? Maybe this is his plan, drag everyone else into this conflict.
Plus who can trust Putin anymore when he says he will stop as soon as UA gives up here and there. I don't know anything for sure, like everyone else here, just trying to see these issues from every angle.
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09.03.2022, 09:59
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | |
But what if he knows Ukrainians won't agree with all of his conditions and keeps killing civilians till it makes Nato intervene in UA? Maybe this is his plan, drag everyone else into this conflict.
| | | | | Many see Putin as a Chess player and that he has his strategy many steps ahead of the West. But right now he seems more like a poker player, going full tilt, doubling down with threats of nuclear arms and spill-over conflict.
Is it victory at any cost? Only getting inside Putin's head can answer this one.
To me, a sign for me for optimism is that he has his family hidden in Switzerland. That means he values them, has emotional attachment for their wellbeing. I doubt he wants them living in a nuclear waste land.
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09.03.2022, 10:44
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
Now that Coca-Cola, Levi, VW, BMW, Visa, Nike and many others are abandoning Russia it seems Putin's dream of restoring the USSR is coming true; the land of empty shelves and few consumer brands.
He just needs to restart Trabant's production to gild the lily.
Meanwhile, in China, at least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities. They are treading a fine line between staying friendly with Russia and avoiding upsetting their major customers in the West; the two biggest are US and Japan.
The oil price is also hurting, China is the world's largest oil importer with currently only 15% from Russia.
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09.03.2022, 10:50
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | He just needs to restart Trabant's production to gild the lily.
| | | | | You can't polish a turd. It was hardly a lily to start with.
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09.03.2022, 10:54
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | They didn't work after 18, but they worked after 45 so it seems we have learned how to implement them in a way to deter. Or you believe it is someone else that should pay for the senseless destruction of putler? | | | | | Well, I see your point. But let us not forget that the reparations after WWII followed the unconditional surrender of Germany.
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09.03.2022, 10:55
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Many see Putin as a Chess player and that he has his strategy many steps ahead of the West. But right now he seems more like a poker player, going full tilt, doubling down with threats of nuclear arms and spill-over conflict.
Is it victory at any cost? Only getting inside Putin's head can answer this one.
To me, a sign for me for optimism is that he has his family hidden in Switzerland. That means he values them, has emotional attachment for their wellbeing. I doubt he wants them living in a nuclear waste land. | | | | | I only try to see these things now from Ukraine's point of view:
- they agreed to hand in to Ru the nuclear weapons that have been stationed on their territory during soviet times in exchange for an agreement in '94 by which Ru has recognised their independence and promised to respect their borders
- Ru has already proved in 2014 that they didn't really mean that
- Ukraine's biggest problem seems to be (to them and many others) that Russia wants the whole Ukraine not only Crimea and the self-declared independent republics in the Eastern part.
It's hard to argue some arguments. I am optimistic though but know that nobody can win under these conditions especially when having to deal with a rather unpredictable Putin.
At the current moment, with all the censorship (and sanctions) in Russia, bringing him in front of The Hague or in some sort of Nurenberg Trials seems just wishful thinking.
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09.03.2022, 11:03
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Well, I see your point. But let us not forget that the reparations after WWII followed the unconditional surrender of Germany. | | | | | Yes, but the objective should be to change the calculus of putler / russia.
Imagine the following outcome: "successful" negotiations in which the soviets pull out, keep Crimea and the two independent republics, get some sanctions relief and Ukraine declares "neutrality". In this scenario, putler has basically won as he will go unpunished, undeterred and more likely to do that again in the future.
Ukraine will be devastated for years, probably decades to come and someone else will be paying the bill.
It's not only immoral, it's dangerous.
p.s. lets not forget that the west already has control of circa USD 400bn of Russian assets, which is not a bad starting point.
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09.03.2022, 11:05
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
Very interesting read from Swiss Handelszeitung . I guess I'm shopping for iodine tablets now | Quote: |  | | | Neutral Switzerland is the sanctions queen
"This is a nuclear financial war and the largest sanctions round in history," said Peter Piatetsky, a former US Treasury Department official who co-founded Castellum.ai. "In less than two weeks, Russia went from being part of the global economy to the single largest target of global sanctions and a financial pariah."
Which country is cracking down on Russia the hardest? The answer is surprising: it is neutral Switzerland – at least based on the number of measures. Federal Bern issued 568 sanctions.
The Federal Council hesitated for a long time before adopting tough measures against Russia, and finally adopted the European Union's sanctions package. According to Castellum.ai, however, fewer sanctions are in force in the EU, namely 518. The USA, on the other hand, which otherwise likes to show a lot of strength when it comes to punitive measures, have only passed 243 sanctions. | | | | | https://www.handelszeitung.ch/politi...nktionskonigin https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctions-dashboard | The following 2 users would like to thank Axa for this useful post: | | 
09.03.2022, 11:11
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Very interesting read from Swiss Handelszeitung . I guess I'm shopping for iodine tablets now  | | | | | That will only protect you for radioactive iodine. Which makes up only a few percent of nuclear fallout.
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09.03.2022, 11:16
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Yes, but the objective should be to change the calculus of putler / russia. | | | | | Can I question the use of putler as opposed to calling the megalomaniac by his real name?
Can we not let his name exist in it's own right with all the negativity and evil associated with it, rather than trying to tack it on to another evil?
It strikes me of the habit of affixing -gate to every scandal to the point where it's lost the bite and has nearly turned into a comic reference.
Let Putin be called Putin and have his name be directly associated with his actions.
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09.03.2022, 11:17
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | That will only protect you for radioactive iodine. Which makes up only a few percent of nuclear fallout. | | | | | True. But AFAIK it's the only one that the body actively absorbs.
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09.03.2022, 11:20
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | That will only protect you for radioactive iodine. Which makes up only a few percent of nuclear fallout. | | | | | I guess it was a failed attempt at humor. Even the use of the ROFL emoji did not help
Don't worry, I'm not running to the pharmacy yet.
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09.03.2022, 11:29
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Let Putin be called Putin and have his name be directly associated with his actions. | | | | | I agree, language is much more important than some may think.
Before the war there were all sorts of internet memes and jokes that made him look almost "sympathisch". Hahaganda.
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09.03.2022, 11:38
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| | Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? | Quote: | |  | | | Yes, but the objective should be to change the calculus of putler / russia.
Imagine the following outcome: "successful" negotiations in which the soviets pull out, keep Crimea and the two independent republics, get some sanctions relief and Ukraine declares "neutrality". In this scenario, putler has basically won as he will go unpunished, undeterred and more likely to do that again in the future.
Ukraine will be devastated for years, probably decades to come and someone else will be paying the bill.
It's not only immoral, it's dangerous.
p.s. lets not forget that the west already has control of circa USD 400bn of Russian assets, which is not a bad starting point. | | | | | Agree. I just don't think it could ever be called reparations.
And to the point of Russia winning in this scenario: There are no good solutions here, but holding negotiations only makes sense if you keep your eyes on a possible agreement. That was my point - at the moment both RU and UA are losing this war. I was just trying to think through possible alleys, and had in mind the concept of stopping the actual bleeding now, move the economic bleeding to Russia long term and buy time and bet on Russia getting weaker and essentially a form of regime change.
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