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  #4141  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The Russkies have reportedly cut power for the cooling pumps at Chernobyl. Looks like they are turning the screws a bit more.
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  #4142  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But: has Europe at any time considered Russia for EU membership? Rather: redefine Europe as Eurasia. Could this be the moment to resource to very radical ideas to solve this unsolvable problem?

Sure the idea has been floated

But it won't work for one main reason: membership in the EU requires pretty stringent laws being implemented about rule of law, market fairness, respect of human rights, working democratic institutions, protection of environment, etc, etc. These rules have always been incompatible with the cleptocratic authoritarian Russian ruling elites of which Putin is the prime representative.

Plus this would also mean EU law overriding russian law. Never gonna happen. See Brexit story

We see how much pain EU has enforcing the EU rules with the eastern states where similar elites still exist, while there may be a chance to slowly get them in line, with Russia that would just be impossible.

In reality Russians may have wanted to join EU for the money, but not for what it represents.
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia did apply to join NATO before.
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  #4144  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Russkies have reportedly cut power for the cooling pumps at Chernobyl. Looks like they are turning the screws a bit more.
There's various arguments going around whether that is really dangerous or not, such old spent nuclear fuel may not be in danger of overheating even without cooling.

But what do we know? And of course, it doesn't mean that nasty things can't be done with spent nuclear fuel if one is stupid enough...
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Russkies have reportedly cut power for the cooling pumps at Chernobyl. Looks like they are turning the screws a bit more.
Hatd to understand, Chernobyl was shutdown over 20 years ago so what is left to disconnect?
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  #4146  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia did apply to join NATO before.
It didn't quite "apply", it wanted to be invited, according to diplomatic sources at least
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-in-his-rule

I have the feeling this was just Putin talk, don't think there was ever a formal process initiated. This is NATO's side of the story
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm

Wish I could see a well articulated Russian view, rather than the blabbing of Putin's recent speech
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Hatd to understand, Chernobyl was shutdown over 20 years ago so what is left to disconnect?
The old fuel rods still need to be cooled. That needs power.
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  #4148  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It didn't quite "apply", it wanted to be invited, according to diplomatic sources at least
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-in-his-rule

I have the feeling this was just Putin talk, don't think there was ever a formal process initiated. This is NATO's side of the story
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm

Wish I could see a well articulated Russian view, rather than the blabbing of Putin's recent speech
i think it was more of a troll than a serious expectation to join.
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Looks like UA is backing down on NATO membership.

Absolutely ridiculous that it took a war to get to here given that there was no realistic prospect of UA ever joining.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...ato-membership
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

"President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24."

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I'm also curious as to how this ends. I expect:

- Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian
✓ UA recognises LH DK as independent (or at least allows for quasi autonomy) - tough question might be whether this applies to only the currently rebel held parts or a greater area
✓ UA agrees not to join NATO
- UA agrees not to join EU
- RU pulls back and no longer funds separatists in LH/DK and no further enlargement of these
- ROW drops sanctions (possibly phased)
So two of the 4 major items, I expected are now in play. Hopefully enough of a start to move from fighting to negotiated settlement.
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Old 09.03.2022, 16:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So two of the 4 major items, I expected are now in play. Hopefully enough of a start to move from fighting to negotiated settlement.

The problem is, these and many other conditions have been already agreed and signed bilaterally by Russia and Ukraine in 1999 and 2014, some even with guarantees from Germany and France, and then almost immediately violated by Ukraine, with full silence from Europe.

So, the question is not about the signature, but about implementation and control.
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  #4152  
Old 09.03.2022, 16:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The problem is, these and many other conditions have been already agreed and signed bilaterally by Russia and Ukraine in 1999 and 2014, some even with guarantees from Germany and France, and then almost immediately violated by Ukraine, with full silence from Europe.

So, the question is not about the signature, but about implementation and control.
Failure to stick to the Minsk agreements was a contributing factor, but not joining NATO is new (even if only symbolic in practice).
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  #4153  
Old 09.03.2022, 17:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i think it was more of a troll than a serious expectation to join.
Of course

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Looks like UA is backing down on NATO membership.

Absolutely ridiculous that it took a war to get to here given that there was no realistic prospect of UA ever joining.
...

So two of the 4 major items, I expected are now in play.
I personally doubt these are really the "issues" at play, these are just hiding the underlying problem. NATO membership (which was never on the cards) and the small eastern regions were never the real issue for Putin/Russia. Not even Crimea, which was pretty much annexed and done with, is an issue.

The main issue and want of Putin is to change regime in Ukraine. So it can control it as it does with Belarus. An unfriendly regime in Ukraine (which Zelenski is) is a major problem for him, for a million of reasons, political, economical, strategical, etc. All the russian "demands" are just means put forward to hide their opposition to the current Ukrainian government.

This conflict will end when either regime changes in Ukraine or in Russia. Anything in the middle remains possible but it would just be postponing one of these outcomes.
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  #4154  
Old 09.03.2022, 17:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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During WWII the Allies had declared that they seek nothing short of unconditional surrender and the Nazis had literally nothing to lose if they kept fighting until the end as the end would have been the same whether they are defeated or surrender.

This is not the case with Russia and Ukraine, not sure why you believe it was a relevant example.



Because you clerarly stated



"It's clear to everyone that wars finish on the negotiation table, not on the battlefield, BUT the battlefield performance sets the cards on the table"


Which is not really true
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Old 09.03.2022, 17:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But what do we know? And of course, it doesn't mean that nasty things can't be done with spent nuclear fuel if one is stupid enough...

Sounds like we're going to find out soonish
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Old 09.03.2022, 17:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Failure to stick to the Minsk agreements was a contributing factor, but not joining NATO is new (even if only symbolic in practice).

Not exactly.
Neutral (no block membership) and non-nuclear status was agreed and signed by all USSR members at separation from RF in 1999.
Ukraine violated both - NATO membership as a strategic objective added to constitution, and non-nuclear commitment abandoned early this year
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Old 09.03.2022, 17:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24."



So two of the 4 major items, I expected are now in play. Hopefully enough of a start to move from fighting to negotiated settlement.
Where did you read this? All I could see us that Zelensky floated the neutrality idea but refuses any territorial concessions.
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  #4158  
Old 09.03.2022, 17:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not exactly.
Neutral (no block membership) and non-nuclear status was agreed and signed by all USSR members at separation from RF in 1999.
Ukraine violated both - NATO membership as a strategic objective added to constitution, and non-nuclear commitment abandoned early this year
Don't forget the bio weapons labs at the border to Russia.
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Old 09.03.2022, 18:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Strange business

Putin still seems to be promoting his delusion that the Ukrainians and Russians are one people and so his forces are to be welcomed as the great liberator.

Meanwhile, his forces seem to be ignoring standard military doctrines and are doing fast advances past major Ukraine units so leaving them in the rear and able to attack the Russian supply lines.

Almost two weeks, and no Russian major victories announced and the ever persistent stories of Russian troops selling fuel in Belarus.

Lots of pictures around of destroyed or captured Russian heavy armour.

Probably sometime in the future, or never, before we know the truth of what really happened - it seems this will be a very long and ever more bloody war.
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Old 09.03.2022, 18:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not sure if this has been discussed, and I know this is probably a very impopular thought and a bit naive . Berlusconi, I recall, spoke about this years ago. But: has Europe at any time considered Russia for EU membership? Rather: redefine Europe as Eurasia. Could this be the moment to resource to very radical ideas to solve this unsolvable problem?
The US would do, probably have done, everything they can to prevent that.

Russia+EU would be strong enough, and independent enough on a resources level, to actually become independent. Compare that to now, with Russian fuels cut off someone else has to supply the EU/Europe, the world markets and the US have us by the nose. Likewise with very many other base materials and commodities.

And then there's the issue of nuclear weapons, after Brexit only France is a nuclear power, and they're probably too small to really count on a geostrategic level.
Not so Russia.
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i think it was more of a troll than a serious expectation to join.
Russia did join the Partnership for Peace though, may be a founding member.

Putin held his speech before the Bundestag in 2001 in German, he didn't do that just because he liked the venue.
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