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Old 09.05.2014, 10:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Deutsche Welle gave a good summary on Putin's "surprise" announcement yesterday:

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It sounds like a sensation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to postpone an independence referendum planned for May 11. Putin made hsi remarks at a press conference with Didier Burkhalter, chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), in Moscow on Wednesday (07.05.2014). Putin, however, added a caveat, saying that Kyiv had to end its military operation against the separatists. He also invited both sides to take part in a dialogue.


The leaders of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People's Republic” responded immediately. The Russian news agency “Interfax” quoted a representative of the separatist group who said it was impossible to postpone the referendum. A decision was expected on Thursday (08.05.2014).


Separatists: May 11 is not possible
Putin's surprising request came just a few hours after the Ukrainian intelligence service SBU published an intercepted phone call between Dmitri Boizov, a representative of the separatists, and the leader of the right-wing movement “Russian National Unity”, Alexander Barkashov. “I am canceling the referendum on May 11, we can't manage it,” said Bojzov in the phone call. The reason for this is that the Ukrainian army outnumbers the pro-Russian forces in Donetsk.
In short, the separatist numbers are too small and they lack any real local support. Putin doesn't want to send Russian troops in to fight an actual war with Ukraine, so the best tactic is to find a way to call off the Ukrainian Army's assault on the separatists in order to buy some timefor them to strengthen themselves.

Notice Putin didn't call on the separatists to lay down their arms, he called on the Ukrainian Army to lay down theirs. Also note that he didn't say the "referendum" should not happen, he just said it should be "postponed". And then later on the same day he launched some ICBM's:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-test...unrest-1444647

Of course the rocket testing was all planned a long time ago, has nothing to do with the crisis in Ukraine, is not compensating for anybody's penis size, blah-blah-blah....
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  #402  
Old 09.05.2014, 13:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin lays wreaths at "Kiev" and "Odessa" tuomb-stones, and gives the one-finger salute:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/smirking-vl...photos-1447722



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  #403  
Old 09.05.2014, 18:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "With a unified Ukraine, he gets it all" Including a lot of anti-Russian people who are willing to use violence; look at Odessa. Are you sure Putin wants that?
He wants just enough trouble to be unavoidable but no change. Russians, not only Putin, don't trust the west after the series of slap in the face when Russia was really low down. Bush basically didn't care at a time he thought he could. Putin make them care now that he can.

This doesn't mean the soviet inspired milicias with good memory in eastern Ukraine are controled by Moscow. Manipulated, yes, but definitely not controlled.
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  #404  
Old 09.05.2014, 19:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

All with Germany's sympathy (if not collusion).
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  #405  
Old 10.05.2014, 01:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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All with Germany's sympathy (if not collusion).
A strange statement. Germany is the only major country in Europe which tries to support the Ukraine while Messrs Cameron and Hollande yield to Putin and leave the Ukraine in the rain. London and Paris already have given up Ukraine, right along the old slogan Mourir pour Danzig ?
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  #406  
Old 10.05.2014, 09:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A strange statement. Germany is the only major country in Europe which tries to support the Ukraine while Messrs Cameron and Hollande yield to Putin and leave the Ukraine in the rain. London and Paris already have given up Ukraine, right along the old slogan Mourir pour Danzig ?
It doesn't look so, Wolli. In fact, it looks like we have a German-Russian pact. Again.
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Old 10.05.2014, 10:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It doesn't look so, Wolli. In fact, it looks like we have a German-Russian pact. Again.
if so, a TEMPORARY pact AGAIN

and Messrs Steinmeier and Burkhalter recently have done more for the Ukraine than Britain and France together. The Ukraine canNOT be saved AGAINST Russia, only WITH Russia
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  #408  
Old 10.05.2014, 13:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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if so, a TEMPORARY pact AGAIN

and Messrs Steinmeier and Burkhalter recently have done more for the Ukraine than Britain and France together. The Ukraine canNOT be saved AGAINST Russia, only WITH Russia
Seems the pro-Russian militia in Donesk have been beating up Red Cross members; we can definitely conclude Putin has lost control of them but will still be blamed!
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  #409  
Old 10.05.2014, 15:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems the pro-Russian militia in Donesk have been beating up Red Cross members; we can definitely conclude Putin has lost control of them but will still be blamed!
Putin repeatedly said that he has no control over irregular forces in the Ukraine
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  #410  
Old 10.05.2014, 15:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This doesn't mean the soviet inspired milicias with good memory in eastern Ukraine are controled by Moscow. Manipulated, yes, but definitely not controlled.
I beg to differ, they are like Dobermans on a leash.

Forget what Putin says, look at what he does. He is a smart cookie, and knows that his political expiry date is rapidly approaching. And after having made himself and a few buddies a lot lot richer and the general public poorer, as well as made a mockery of the justice system (they'll even put dead people on trial just to rub it in). He can't just step down and expect not to be called to account for his crimes. Soooooo..
He needs a distraction, a gift of contrition. Bringing some of the old USSR back under the Russian flag will stir patriotism long enough that people will stare down into their empty Vodka bottles and think Vladimir is a hero, and not a crook.

Putin wants a political stay-out-of-jail free card, and he will do anything...ANYTHING... to get it.
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Old 10.05.2014, 18:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Forget what Putin says, look at what he does.
Forget what XXXXX says, look at what he does. Works for every thing. Now ask yourself who has what kind of glasses while looking. You may include me, but don't forget to include yourself.
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Old 12.05.2014, 04:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I beg to differ, they are like Dobermans on a leash.

Forget what Putin says, look at what he does. He is a smart cookie, and knows that his political expiry date is rapidly approaching. And after having made himself and a few buddies a lot lot richer and the general public poorer, as well as made a mockery of the justice system (they'll even put dead people on trial just to rub it in). He can't just step down and expect not to be called to account for his crimes. Soooooo..
He needs a distraction, a gift of contrition. Bringing some of the old USSR back under the Russian flag will stir patriotism long enough that people will stare down into their empty Vodka bottles and think Vladimir is a hero, and not a crook.

Putin wants a political stay-out-of-jail free card, and he will do anything...ANYTHING... to get it.
He HAS got the CRIMEA BACK for Russia. He HAS got Russia back onto the map

CRIMES ? None out of a Russian perspective.

Eastern Ukraine ? YES he will try to capture a slice, but not start a war.

Tatars ? He of course is aware of the problem as the main part of them is around KAZAN. He may give them a slice of the CRIMEA or a slice of the East Ukraine.

FURTHER ? he is a pragmatist and will look what can be done with either Turkey or Bulgaria or BOTH , and than proceed . If you realize that Mr Erdogan originates from the EAstern Black Sea Coast you may realize that there are open ways
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Old 12.05.2014, 08:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Switzerland plays hosts not just to dissidents but also to many wealthy Russians-owned companies (mostly in raw materials) and facilitates their business. Touch this instead of "talking". This is a safe haven for the bandit state tycoons.

It is not (yet) a matter of dying for Ukraine but just taking some economical hit. And now see who walks the talk. Germany? Quite the opposite.
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Old 12.05.2014, 09:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So we had a referendum yesterday and there was one dead person, shot by the official Ukrainian armed forces.

What I read in the Western media is that the referendum was marred by violence and that there was one dead. They all forget to mention that he/she was killed by the Ukrainian state's forces.
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Old 12.05.2014, 14:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So we had a referendum yesterday and there was one dead person, shot by the official Ukrainian armed forces.

What I read in the Western media is that the referendum was marred by violence and that there was one dead. They all forget to mention that he/she was killed by the Ukrainian state's forces.
About "there was one dead person, shot by the official Ukrainian armed forces."

Official Ukrainian armed forces doing what they are allowed to do?

So what happens next with these republics? They say "It is necessary to form state bodies and military authorities as soon as possible" - anybody know where they plan to get the money to pay these new people/jobs? New taxes?
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Old 12.05.2014, 18:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "there was one dead person, shot by the official Ukrainian armed forces."

Official Ukrainian armed forces doing what they are allowed to do?

So what happens next with these republics? They say "It is necessary to form state bodies and military authorities as soon as possible" - anybody know where they plan to get the money to pay these new people/jobs? New taxes?
So if a village in Switzerland decided to hold an illegal referendum because they got sick of the rest of the country, would it be fine for the Swiss army to shoot at them?
It's one thing to not recognize it and another thing to shoot at the people.
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Old 12.05.2014, 18:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So what happens next with these republics?
The question was asked very carefully, it's not an explicit vote for independence. Their goal was to show that they have the support of the population and they won that: Kiev government can not disregard half of the country. Of course, the number means nothing because people against the vote didn't vote at all. But the participation was very high. That's what counts in this strategic game.
Everything was made to keep a unified Ukraine because the worse case scenario is a federation. This is not Sudetenland 1938 but Belgium 1993. East-European style of course, which is far more rough.
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Old 12.05.2014, 20:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So if a village in Switzerland decided to hold an illegal referendum because they got sick of the rest of the country, would it be fine for the Swiss army to shoot at them?
It's one thing to not recognize it and another thing to shoot at the people.
Death is the usual penalty for treason?
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  #419  
Old 12.05.2014, 21:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But the participation was very high.

Steinmeier did you tell so? Is parroting Russia's propaganda part of Germany's "back to Sonderweg"?
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  #420  
Old 12.05.2014, 21:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The question was asked very carefully, it's not an explicit vote for independence. Their goal was to show that they have the support of the population and they won that: Kiev government can not disregard half of the country. Of course, the number means nothing because people against the vote didn't vote at all. But the participation was very high. That's what counts in this strategic game.
Everything was made to keep a unified Ukraine because the worse case scenario is a federation. This is not Sudetenland 1938 but Belgium 1993. East-European style of course, which is far more rough.
On Kiev's own treatment of eastern Ukraine's political activities.

"We hear various political figures, including within the U.S. and Germany, criticizing these referenda and declaring them illegal, not to be taken seriously, a farce, and lacking in credibility. They don’t want their own citizens getting the idea that they actually have a right to separate from the state that claims to rule them."
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