True. It seems like having three quite balanced powers: Eurasia, China and US...would not be bad.

At this point I want NATO to stop worrying about escalation and get involved. I can't see it leading directly to nuclear war if we act to protect Ukranians from genocide with a no-fly zone.

All of this public outrage and condemnation doesn't stop Ukranians being slaughtered. The EU imo needs to take more direct action to deter Russia and at the very least work asap to get the most advanced anti-air weapon systems in the hands of the Ukranians.

As fas as I see it he is set to "liberate" Ukraine from Ukrainians as a nation (including, as a collateral damage, all the other ethnicities that live there). We might call it, technically, in a different way but....
This war doesn't seem to be against Nato or because of whatever the pretext was that he invoked in the early days. They are attacking civilians and even the ugly, monstrous thing called War has some boundaries that nobody crosses, or shouldn't cross.

If more advanced weapons are delivered then more and more fighting will occur in the Ukrainian cities. Millions of people are still trapped there with no help and no way out. If this is not immediately addressed, these people are facing the humanitarian catastrophe. Weapons would support the Ukrainian army and this part is being worked on, but the diplomatic efforts must also be made to bring food and water, and let the people out. Today the Foreign Ministers are meeting in Turkey, and the media coverage is so little — why? Why diplomats across the world are so silent? The EU and the US have to try to negotiate with Putin to save the civilians.

Another very insightful interview, this time with Bellingcat the Netherlands-based investigative journalism group that specializes in fact-checking and open-source intelligence. Unfortunately only in Russian and quite long (47 min), but a few key points:

1. The encrypted military system that Russia developed and launched with huge fanfare has completely failed, this is why the army is forced to use normal mobile phones, which Bellingcat is able to tap.
2. The mixing of various generations of military hardware is one of the many mistakes they've done as fixing and maintenance on the battle field is next to impossible.
3. There's total chaos among the middle officers and soldiers on the ground.
4. The plan of Moscow, now apparent to everyone, was confirmed: they wanted a very quick operation targeting Kiev and bringing the government down.
5. There's increasing circumstantial evidence that the GRU and the generals are not providing the full picture to Putin.
6. Interesting insight from him: during the Crimean annexation, Putin was able to reward his top aides with monetary compensation (he gave a couple of examples with media and telecom companies given to some of his guys). However, today with the increased sanctions and pressure Putin is unable to "motivate" them and there's probably a re-assessment of their position. They will be targeted by sanctions, they are part of an increasingly bogged-down war while at the same time they won't get any benefit.
7. He is NOT confirming the widely-cited news that Putin has basically secluded himself in a bunker.
8. He was asked whether he can confirm the >10k dead / arrested Russian soldiers, but his response was that after 3k they stopped verifying the numbers as this was already well-beyond the initial cost-calculation of Moscow and this is why one of the most critical moments would be once the war is over, the Russian military will have to communicate to the families and this could lead to massive protests.
9. a "joke" by the lady asking the questions: Putin started WW3 with WW1 weapons. The response of Grozev was that in a modern conflict you can't win a war with tanks, especially old tanks.
10. Grozev believes that the war is coming to an end he even speculated that the active military operations could be over in about a week. NO EVIDENCE, he just expressed an opinion based on his knowledge of the Russian initial plan, on the facts on the ground and the situation in Moscow.
11. He's quite confident there's no risk of nuclear strike on Ukraine as internally in Moscow his aides will not approve and understand the need for such a thing and the wider Russian population will not support this either as supposedly everything is going to plan and supposedly they are winning.

sorry for the long post

He banned the Mothers Committee already, exactly because he didn't want to hear anything coming from that direction. This is saying a lot of things about him. He seemed to enjoy his time and even stay close to young female flight attendants but doesn't want to hear anything from other women....

Rio Tinto terminating all Russian business contracts (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/business/rio...es-2022-03-10/

The UN definition of genocide is when 10% of a popuilation or a minority are indiscrimately killed. It does not take into account sex or age.


We are far from that number.


Saying it is a genocide is just wrong, false.


It is a massive tradegy, it's murder, it's a lot of things, but it is not a genocide and by pushing this argument it won't help as it is clearly not.

Just received

the more advanced weapons will be delivered, the sooner ru will get off UA
ru stopping only where and when it has been stopped by force
dont be naive and think that ru will stop by itself after conquering UA

so let's wait until right numbers arrives

Wiki disagrees with you

"It is intended rather to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. The objectives of such a plan would be the disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings..."

No, i am not saying that, i am saying call it what it is, indiscriminate murder, but not genocide, that's just fake news

Putin and Russia are treated with great respect (and fear) by the media even in these conditions. Diplomats and foreign politicians are afraid to treat him as he would deserve to be treated and kick him in the balls (verbally). He is telling all sort of lies and the others keep silent. Why, the same reflexes of submission in relation to Russia.
Old customs die hard.

The Psaki statement last night on Russia potentially using chem/bio weapons is quite scary.

Russia chose China. Let alone economic and military reasons, authoritarian regimes sort of naturally gravitate around each other.

The 10% maybe wrong although i remember reading something likle this during the Ruwada crisis, somewhere there has to be a line in the sand in order to act. Without being flippant, it's a bit like speeding, 50 is ok, 51 is wrong. There needs to be a clear definition and it would need to be a percentage as 1 million Swiss people is a lot, 1 million Chinese people is also a lot, but percentage wise very different.



Wiki may disagree, however i did mention UN and here is the UN definition.

https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml


It's everything horible you can imagine, but it is not a genocide in the correct use of the word.

It's not fake news, it seems it is indeed genocide.

As already pointed above, wiki disagrees with you, but also the UN definition which you mentioned disagrees with you too.

"In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

Killing members of the group;
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group."


Btw, you quoted 10%, nowhere in the UN documents was I able to find any mention of any metric. I have to say, I personally did not look at this as genocide, but I am increasingly likely to change my opinion

This is a very difficult task as he is just waiting for any pretext to attack other countries.

But I agree something must be done, I don't know what is the most effective but also wise way to deter him and put an end to this senseless invasion.

I remain convinced that the rational choice is to support Ukraine with aid and weapons, to bleed Russia economically and to trust that the Russian military will get into deeper quicksands as this continues.

The No Fly Zone is an illusion; it will be either an unenforced joke or lead to NATO shooting down Russian aircraft. Which means open war with Russia. The damage Russia is inflicting on UA is mainly from artillery, so how does that stop with a NFZ? Or is then the next step NATO bombing Russian artillery?

I know it is cruel to Ukraine, but I just cannot see how rushing into an open war with Russia out of understandable anger and rage is a smart choice.