World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? - Page 211

gaburko · #**4201** 10.03.2022, 09:11

	Quote:	komsomolez
	The No Fly Zone is an illusion;.

Agree. Moreover, a UK military expert a few days ago mentioned that it's not only the risk of shooting down Russian jets, but in order to enforce it, NATO would have to knock down air-defense systems in Belarus and Russia itself in order to ensure the NFZ. An absolute no-go.

Phil_MCR · #**4202** 10.03.2022, 09:15

	Quote:	gaburko
	10. Grozev believes that the war is coming to an end he even speculated that the active military operations could be over in about a week. NO EVIDENCE, he just expressed an opinion based on his knowledge of the Russian initial plan, on the facts on the ground and the situation in Moscow.

that's my hope/guess too. i think both sides have reached a point where it is better for them to stop and negotiate than continue fighting. as UA have indicated willingness to cede key elements demanded by russia, there's the basis of an agreement to be had.

vladest · #**4203** 10.03.2022, 09:19

	Quote:	komsomolez
	The Psaki statement last night on Russia potentially using chem/bio weapons is quite scary.

Syria scenario

vladest · #**4204** 10.03.2022, 09:21

	Quote:	komsomolez
	it will be either an unenforced joke or lead to NATO shooting down Russian aircraft. Which means open war with Russia.

Turkey did this. ru answer was...smashing turkey's tomatos

komsomolez · #**4205** 10.03.2022, 09:27

	Quote:	vladest
	Turkey did this. ru answer was...smashing turkey's tomatos

You mean when they shot down that jet on their border with Syria - the jet that arguably had violated Turkish airspace? How is that comparable?

Phil_MCR · #**4206** 10.03.2022, 09:48

	Quote:	komsomolez
	I remain convinced that the rational choice is to support Ukraine with aid and weapons, to bleed Russia economically and to trust that the Russian military will get into deeper quicksands as this continues. The No Fly Zone is an illusion; it will be either an unenforced joke or lead to NATO shooting down Russian aircraft. Which means open war with Russia. The damage Russia is inflicting on UA is mainly from artillery, so how does that stop with a NFZ? Or is then the next step NATO bombing Russian artillery? I know it is cruel to Ukraine, but I just cannot see how rushing into an open war with Russia out of understandable anger and rage is a smart choice.

A NFZ will virtually be impossible (just look at the locations of the airbases on the Russian side vs the US side - as well as air defense systems). Rather than NATO shooting down Russian aircraft, it will mean RU aircraft shooting down the NATO planes supposed to enforce the NFZ.

The message at 13:10 to those advocating for steps that would lead to WW3

https://youtu.be/YvdMavBtgtA?t=771

greenmount · #**4207** 10.03.2022, 09:49

If you want to hear some really good insight into Putin and his state apparatus's world you can watch some interviews with Julia Ioffe, a Russian-Jew emigrated to USA as a child and en expert on this regime.

marton · #**4208** 10.03.2022, 10:39

@ gaburko

Re No. 1. I do not understand why the Ukrainians do not block Russian mobile phones from their mobile network to block intra-army communication, maybe they believe it is more useful to listen to the conversations and to know exactly where the army users are.

	Quote:	greenmount
	This is a very difficult task as he is just waiting for any pretext to attack other countries. But I agree something must be done, I don't know what is the most effective but also wise way to deter him and put an end to this senseless invasion.

Putin's army in Ukraine is bogged down, I do not see them being capable of punching through Ukraine to attack the bordering countries when they have not yet reached Odesa.
He could go through Belarus but that would probably disrupt him from using the same area as a supply chain for his army in Ukraine.

Phil_MCR · #**4209** 10.03.2022, 10:40

	Quote:	marton
	@ gaburko Re No. 1. I do not understand why the Ukrainians do not block Russian mobile phones from their mobile network to block intra-army communication, maybe they believe it is more useful to listen to the conversations and to know exactly where the army users are.

they do. they've been using the data gained from this, but they cut them off at critical times.

greenmount · #**4210** 10.03.2022, 10:47

	Quote:	marton
	@ gaburko Re No. 1. I do not understand why the Ukrainians do not block Russian mobile phones from their mobile network to block intra-army communication, maybe they believe it is more useful to listen to the conversations and to know exactly where the army users are. Putin's army in Ukraine is bogged down, I do not see them being capable of punching through Ukraine to attack the bordering countries when they have not yet reached Odesa. He could go through Belarus but that would probably disrupt him from using the same area as a supply chain for his army in Ukraine.

I tend to agree with you, but every time we thought he wouldn't do this or that he proved us wrong....We are assisting, helplessly, at the greatest catastrophe in Europe since the end of the Second World War. It is beyond infuriating. And why? Because of one mans distorted view on history and distorted view on his own legacy or his own historical mission, one man's ego.....and the system and the clique that enabled and enables him of course. I really don't know who or what could stop Putin.

Gil · #**4211** 10.03.2022, 11:00

	Quote:	Chuff
	At this point I want NATO to stop worrying about escalation and get involved. I can't see it leading directly to nuclear war if we act to protect Ukranians from genocide with a no-fly zone. All of this public outrage and condemnation doesn't stop Ukranians being slaughtered. The EU imo needs to take more direct action to deter Russia and at the very least work asap to get the most advanced anti-air weapon systems in the hands of the Ukranians.

Totally agree, although lots of experts knowledgeable in these matters don't. It just feels like everything is organised around 'don't annoy vlad' regardless of what he does. I can't see that Putins expansionist aims are important enough to him to risk a conflict with Nato, much less a nuclear escalation. Discussion of the difficulties of enforcing a NFZ seem irrelevant at the moment, establish it, let Putin do the calculus for whether he wants to risk incursions then deal with that if he does.

robBob · #**4212** 10.03.2022, 11:09

A slight glimmer of hope: https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...dy-2022-03-07/

If only all Russian people can comprehend what is actually going on and ...

The truth has to get through!

Phil_MCR · #**4213** 10.03.2022, 11:22

First MCD is shutdown, now concerts from long dead russian composers are cancelled too!

“Cancelling a Tchaikovsky concert is so daft ordinary Russians will write it off as mad Vlad overdoing the propaganda.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...raine-conflict

Tom1234 · #**4214** 10.03.2022, 11:33

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	First MCD is shutdown, now concerts from long dead russian composers are cancelled too! “Cancelling a Tchaikovsky concert is so daft ordinary Russians will write it off as mad Vlad overdoing the propaganda.” https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...raine-conflict

Too right - I've binned my Dostoevsky novels and poured my vodka down the sink. That will show them!

bowlie · #**4215** 10.03.2022, 11:39

	Quote:	Tom1234
	Too right - I've binned my Dostoevsky novels and poured my vodka down the sink. That will show them!

I’m disposing of my Russian Vodka using more conventional methods. But I won’t be buying any more.

Axa · #**4216** 10.03.2022, 11:42

	Quote:	Tom1234
	Too right - I've binned my Dostoevsky novels and poured my vodka down the sink. That will show them!

Extra points if you emptied Absulute vodka down the sink, that'll teach the Russians

#**4217** 10.03.2022, 11:43

COOP will not sell Russian vodkas any more, but Migros (Denner) will.

Gil · #**4218** 10.03.2022, 11:43

	Quote:	Tom1234
	Too right - I've binned my Dostoevsky novels and poured my vodka down the sink. That will show them!

Boney M's 'Rasputin' will never be heard in this house again

Ato · #**4219** 10.03.2022, 11:45

	Quote:	Axa
	Extra points if you emptied Absulute vodka down the sink, that'll teach the Russians

I'll never touch Smirnoff again!
Nothing to do with anything happening now, but a recommendation for others.

Biro · #**4220** 10.03.2022, 11:47

	Quote:	gaburko
	It's not fake news, it seems it is indeed genocide. As already pointed above, wiki disagrees with you, but also the UN definition which you mentioned disagrees with you too. "In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: Killing members of the group; Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group." Btw, you quoted 10%, nowhere in the UN documents was I able to find any mention of any metric. I have to say, I personally did not look at this as genocide, but I am increasingly likely to change my opinion

As i said it was somethnig i read a while ago during ther Ruwanda genocide and i may have been mistaken.

By the lose definition you quote, anything could be classed a s a genocide.

Putain is not targeting any specifc group, he is targeting everybody in Ukraine.

But, i'm sure you know best.