I am more into analysis than forecasting the future and here we are well into the third week of the Russian invasion without any Russian major strategic victories being claimed so the situation is not looking good for Russia

Russia has a huge physical problem when we consider Ukraine is around 600K sq km. Assume 200K Russian troops so if they were spread out evenly (won't happen, just an example) then there would be one soldier in every 3 sq km.

Russia has a problem if they advance then the more military they have to leave behind to protect their line of advance so they get ever more spread out and create ever longer supply lines for the Ukrainians to attack.
Ukraine can keep its forces in strong groups close to their well hidden supply stores, then pick and overwhelm opportunity targets.

The days are getting warmer leading to snowmelt and flooding so there are many photos of Russian heavy equipment stuck in deep mud. If they are limited to only travelling by road then they become vulnerable to infantry carried anti-tank weapons, infantry can much easier cross these flooded areas.

Ukraine seems to have plenty of anti-tank and anti-air weapons, possibly too many, there are reports of as many as five or six missiles being fired at a single aircraft which demonstrats the Ukrainians are poor shots.

The worst case for Ukraine is this war will drag on and on with no clear end, the best case is the Russians will sooner or later have to abandon their invasion.

you expecting this openly claimed by russia state media?

The Times: Emmanuel Macron goes for the Zelensky look

The Clown?

Funnily enough, the Kremlin seem to think it has happened. According to Marina Ovsyannikova has appeared in a Moscow Court.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called her actions an act of "hooliganism"

You have no evidence whatsoever there's no live news in Russia. If you repeat the claim, I'll treat it as deliberately posting fake news.

sooo scary

Looks like food delivery guy from one of these places that sell pizza, kebab and anything in between.

At least we have confirmed that Putin's brainwashing extends beyond Russia's borders - in spite of free press.

Boris Johnson can do the dressed-down hoodie look too:

I am genuinely interested in your point of view. Can you please clarify your position? Why do you think Russia has not necessarily the right, but valid reasons for that war?

I am not asking you provocatively, I am genuinely curious to understand if we're missing something here.

I am very vocal in my view that this is 100% and entirely Russia's fault and it doesn't have any right, moral, political or historical for what it's doing.

Interesting outcome, feels a bit staged one way or the other. Let's see what we hear about this going forward.

Putin moments that I have seen were staged but that news bulletin looked like it was live broadcast.

Do you think they have a reason to stage that specific moment?

rarely in such complex situations can you say that one side or another is 100% at fault. anyone claiming such is ignorant, overly simplistic or biased.

what lens you examine the situation also colours the view.

looking at the situation from an ideological lens looks very different from a military/real politik lens.

I suppose you mean the war could have been avoided?

Call me ignorant, doesn't bother me much. What I am interested in is a view of why Russia should be justified to wage war against Ukraine. I am not saying Ukraine is a saint, I am merely asking if war was the right decision and if yes, what are the arguments for this war.

110%. but critical thinking seems frowned upon here.

Says the one who made a post saying that the attack on the maternity no.3 from Mariupol was fake news....

Fine, clarify your position please? Same question. What might I be missing? I really wouldn't mind an argument based view.

The joke of the evening in Russian Telegram channels... 🙂

Biden, Blinken and several other senior US officials not permitted to enter Russia.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-...ken-sanctions/

Sochi holiday ruined for them!

in my opinion, it was simply a case of conquer now or (eventually) be conquered.
the ever-increasing encroachment of NATO bases to Russia is a threat to them. at least they perceive it as such: if they lose Ukraine to NATO then they are basically at the mercy of western powers and they see it as detrimental to Russias security. the last straw.

obviously, from a western perspective, we're the good guys so what's the problem right? but not everybody sees it so clear cut like this. hence conquer or be conquered mentality.

this is obviously my opinion only. i don't think anyone but Putin and his inner circle know what his real goals are and why and how he plans to achieve them. maybe he really does want to resurrect the USSR.