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  #4681  
Old 17.03.2022, 20:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Utter nonsense. US LNG is a price taker not a price setter. It is cheap on loading in the US, but it will go to the highest paying market (Europe or Asia) and collect that price.
and that price is higher than russian gas.
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Old 17.03.2022, 20:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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and that price is higher than russian gas.
I'm sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about. The price of Russian gas into Europe is overwhelmingly indexed to the European market price. Which gives Russia enormous pricing power as they control 40% of supply.
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Old 17.03.2022, 20:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's why I would assume that once a certain grace-period has passed, pressure will mount on Zelensky to sign whatever is on the table.

Hell, even Israel's Bennett has done that a while ago (though, of course, there are strategic reasons for that, too: Israel is sort-of-depending on Russia to keep Syria from totally glitching into a septic tank of anarchy like rest of the countries the West tried to "fix" (Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq say hello)).

Also, how can Biden call Putin a "War Criminal" and expect from Putin to shake hands and sit across from him at some summit in the future?

You'd expect that from Trump. And I believe even he was smart enough to avoid denominations like that one. At least most of the time. ;-)


There's no way this can result in a happy end. It's just different levels of messed up, depending on which side you end up.
Indeed, I think it's easy to fall into the the trap of taking heart from the staunch resistance put up by Ukraine. It's easy to believe that they can actually win this. Maybe they will, but whilst Russian progress has been thwarted, they're still making progress. Once there is a link up with the southern troops and they are able to encircle cities like Kyiv, I can see the most likely outcome is Russia pounding Ukraine into surrender.
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  #4684  
Old 17.03.2022, 21:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Indeed, I think it's easy to fall into the the trap of taking heart from the staunch resistance put up by Ukraine. It's easy to believe that they can actually win this. Maybe they will, but whilst Russian progress has been thwarted, they're still making progress. Once there is a link up with the southern troops and they are able to encircle cities like Kyiv, I can see the most likely outcome is Russia pounding Ukraine into surrender.
Link up with the southern troops who just retreated from Mykolaiv, only another 400Km through hostile Ukranian forces including 1st echelon of reserves with three armoured brigades
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  #4685  
Old 17.03.2022, 21:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about. The price of Russian gas into Europe is overwhelmingly indexed to the European market price. Which gives Russia enormous pricing power as they control 40% of supply.
if in your world were it would be so much cheaper to build LNG terminals and import LNG, why has europe continued to instead pay higher prices for russian gas and suffer the dependency problem too?
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  #4686  
Old 17.03.2022, 21:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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if in your world were it would be so much cheaper to build LNG terminals and import LNG, why has europe continued to instead pay higher prices for russian gas and suffer the dependency problem too?
You need to read a book or two on gas pricing. There are different structures, indexed to different underlyings. Prices are not static so neither is the relation between the different structures. Europe's sins were two-fold: entering into LNG contracts that are not firm, and assuming that Russia would always be willing to sell gas whatever the price level and whatever the political environment.
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  #4687  
Old 17.03.2022, 22:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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if in your world were it would be so much cheaper to build LNG terminals and import LNG, why has europe continued to instead pay higher prices for russian gas and suffer the dependency problem too?
Russian gas is much cheaper than LNG from the US by 50%, also you don´t need to build the infrastructure for US gas from scratch.
Add to that US gas for export is produced from fracking, not the most environmentally friendly way by the way. And we still need to transition from fossil fuel to renewables. I think that another result of the Ukraine war is that our goal of under 2° warming is a pipedream.
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Old 17.03.2022, 22:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian gas is much cheaper than LNG from the US by 50%, also you don´t need to build the infrastructure for US gas from scratch.
Another uninformed statement.
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Old 17.03.2022, 22:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Nothing wrong with fracking.

Tom
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  #4690  
Old 17.03.2022, 23:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Another uninformed statement.
Not really, the US sells to the highest bidder whereas Russian gas prices are fixed. Also Europe does not have the capacity to land US gas in the amount needed by the continent. And don´t forget that you would require around 4000 LNG tankers to supply the gas delivered by pipeline.
Do the math.
https://www.t-online.de/finanzen/new...ch-.html<br />https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse..._29267330.html
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  #4691  
Old 17.03.2022, 23:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Nothing wrong with fracking.

Tom
Depends where it is. When it's causing frequent earth tremors in a residential area which has never experienced these tremors before, that's a huge issue.
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Old 17.03.2022, 23:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Depends where it is. When it's causing frequent earth tremors in a residential area which has never experienced these tremors before, that's a huge issue.
But most fracking is done in remote areas 1000s of km from civilisation.

Tom
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  #4693  
Old 17.03.2022, 23:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But most fracking is done in remote areas 1000s of km from civilisation.

Tom
In the US, yes, but even there, the limit for earthquakes caused by fracking has been repeatedly increased by vested interests.

The site in my UK home county was quarter of a mile from a primary school. Whilst many buildings in countries which are accustomed to earthquakes are built those measures in mind, buildings in Lancashire definitely aren't.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climat...-a9074216.html

There was a 3.9 in Manchester 20yrs ago and the appeal which went out was "Please send chips & gravy and bottles of blue pop!"
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  #4694  
Old 17.03.2022, 23:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But most fracking is done in remote areas 1000s of km from civilisation.

Tom
That is not a good way to describe Texas.
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  #4695  
Old 18.03.2022, 08:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not really, the US sells to the highest bidder whereas Russian gas prices are fixed.
Russian gas prices are not fixed.

And "the US" doesn't sell at all, US based private companies do. And they sell upon loading based on US market prices plus certain fees. The buyer then is free to take the LNG where they please, usually the highest paying market, which can be Asia or Europe or Brazil. The spreads between these markets are constantly changing.

Seriously, your knowledge level of the issue is poor and you should either read up or stop talking about something you don't understand.
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  #4696  
Old 18.03.2022, 09:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US themselves see the Budapest memorandum as not binding.

Can't really expect that others do what you don't do yourself.
I was talking about Ukraine and Russia here.
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  #4697  
Old 18.03.2022, 09:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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UA will have to look after their own interests. they can strike a deal now or wait until more of their cities are flattened and their citizens die or leave. If it lasts more than a few months, Europe will not care any more and it will be old news.

The US will be happy to keep feeding weapons in and funding a proxy war with Russia. They only stand to benefit as countries strengthen NATO commitments and new countries wish to join NATO. They also benefit, if Europe turns its back on Russian oil and gas to the benefit of US LNG suppliers. In fact, you could argue that US interests are against peace in Ukraine.
Phil, Russian Federation doesn't only supply oil and gas on a mutual beneficial basis. In some of the ex-commie countries Ru oligarchs have bought entire industries like steel production, oil and gas distribution companies, energy sector etc.etc. and sometimes they did it only to sabotage those industries in order to promote the Ru companies. It is not only the USA, EU and whoever other (Western) power who does proxy (economic) wars. I find it very naive or maybe just ignorant to dismiss Ru as just some giant gas and oil supplier. Russian money could and did buy lots of things and in most cases it was just a Trojan horse not a vehicle for development.

Last edited by greenmount; 18.03.2022 at 09:44.
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Old 18.03.2022, 09:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian gas prices are not fixed.

And "the US" doesn't sell at all, US based private companies do. And they sell upon loading based on US market prices plus certain fees. The buyer then is free to take the LNG where they please, usually the highest paying market, which can be Asia or Europe or Brazil. The spreads between these markets are constantly changing.

Seriously, your knowledge level of the issue is poor and you should either read up or stop talking about something you don't understand.
Maybe I should have written US companies, as I meant it to be read, but the rest is on point.

PS. Seems Germany´s prices for Russian gas was fixed by contract. And it seems that Gazprom has allowed Germany´s gastanks storage to run empty.
https://www.tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/...ge-517783.html

Last edited by slammer; 18.03.2022 at 10:25.
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Old 18.03.2022, 10:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

If the higher end estimates of Russian soldier deaths are correct then they lost more in three weeks than the US did in twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
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Old 18.03.2022, 11:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Maybe I should have written US companies, as I meant it to be read, but the rest is on point.

PS. Seems Germany´s prices for Russian gas was fixed by contract. And it seems that Gazprom has allowed Germany´s gastanks storage to run empty.
https://www.tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/...ge-517783.html
Most Russian gas contracts are indexed to Month Ahead prices on the European market. This means that the price for March 2022 would be the average of all March contract prices during February 2022. So yes, fixed, for one month. So if then during March the spot market price goes up, the "Russian contract" will be "cheaper" than the market. Can be the other way around of course.

This does not mean that the Russian price is "fixed" or "below the market". The opposite is the case. It does follow the market, just that there is a technical difference between the monthly price and the daily price.

Maybe this is too complex for the Schwaebisches Tagblatt or T-Online to understand, of course.
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