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  #4861  
Old 23.03.2022, 06:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I have tried to find information about the gas transit, and found that it actually has increased since the fighting started. Since February 25th the amount of gas transit through Ukraine almost doubled compared with the „pre-war“ amount, and reached 109 million cubic meters per day, which is maximum according to the current contract with Gazprom. Transit of the Russian gas to Europe gives Ukraine up to $2 billion annually.

Formally Russia is not in war with Ukraine, the Russians claim that it is not a war but a special operation. Without declaration of war, the contract for gas transit is valid and gas keeps going. Both sides seem to take care not to damage the transit system.
More I think about this, more angry I get — how is this possible? They made a deal, they quietly agreed about keeping the gas transit. This should have been the first thing to get canceled when the war started, but it was not even discussed aloud in the news.

They cannot agree about the humanitarian corridors from Mariupol where people are dying every day, their meetings bring nothing in terms of the ceasefire, they cannot stop destroying Ukrainian cities, but they quietly keep pumping and selling gas together. Isn’t this horrible? Zelensky criticizes companies which are doing business with Russia, but he made a deal with the aggressor about gas.
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  #4862  
Old 23.03.2022, 07:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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More I think about this, more angry I get — how is this possible? They made a deal, they quietly agreed about keeping the gas transit. This should have been the first thing to get canceled when the war started, but it was not even discussed aloud in the news.

They cannot agree about the humanitarian corridors from Mariupol where people are dying every day, their meetings bring nothing in terms of the ceasefire, they cannot stop destroying Ukrainian cities, but they quietly keep pumping and selling gas together. Isn’t this horrible? Zelensky criticizes companies which are doing business with Russia, but he made a deal with the aggressor about gas.
stop manipulating. UA fulfilling contractual obligations towards EU
its not UA paying for the gas its EU countries
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  #4863  
Old 23.03.2022, 07:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Deportation is not the worst case scenario which can happen.
It's the best case scenario in fact. You have access to all international brands again and can buy as much sugar as you want without having to wait in line for three hours.

Unless you are deported to North Korea, of course.
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  #4864  
Old 23.03.2022, 07:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Last night I have watched an interview of Christiane Amanpour with Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. I don't know how she did it (keep her nerves in check) but she did it. It was an excellent interview in the sense that she wasn't afraid or sickened to ask about what's going on in Ukraine, Russia's plans etc.
I had the feeling I watched the "minister of truth" from 1984 speaking. Hallucinatory.
At this point I think Putin is not only the greatest unkrainophobe but also the greatest russophobe on earth. What on earth do they plan to do with these countries.....
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  #4865  
Old 23.03.2022, 08:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's the best case scenario in fact. You have access to all international brands again and can buy as much sugar as you want without having to wait in line for three hours.

Unless you are deported to North Korea, of course.
You also get the plane ticket and some kind of visa to enter another country.
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  #4866  
Old 23.03.2022, 08:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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stop manipulating. UA fulfilling contractual obligations towards EU
its not UA paying for the gas its EU countries
I thought he was a decent man with iron balls — he should have sent all Gazprom contracts in the same direction as the war ship.
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Old 23.03.2022, 08:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Last night I have watched an interview of Christiane Amanpour with Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. I don't know how she did it (keep her nerves in check) but she did it. It was an excellent interview in the sense that she wasn't afraid or sickened to ask about what's going on in Ukraine, Russia's plans etc.
I had the feeling I watched the "minister of truth" from 1984 speaking. Hallucinatory.
At this point I think Putin is not only the greatest unkrainophobe but also the greatest russophobe on earth. What on earth do they plan to do with these countries.....
Amanpour has sat down with the Devil on more than one occasion, she's knows how to do it.

I'd like to see Louis Theroux do an interview with Putin. He has a way of getting into people's heads.
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  #4868  
Old 23.03.2022, 09:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Amanpour has sat down with the Devil on more than one occasion, she's knows how to do it.

I'd like to see Louis Theroux do an interview with Putin. He has a way of getting into people's heads.



I always thought Louis was better getting into their pants !
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Old 23.03.2022, 10:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Amanpour has sat down with the Devil on more than one occasion, she's knows how to do it.

I'd like to see Louis Theroux do an interview with Putin. He has a way of getting into people's heads.
His interviews with people who survived traumatic accidents sticks long in the memory.

I can never fail to laugh out loud when he "innocently" asks one survivor "...and were you an Arsenal fan before the head injury?"

I say this as an Arsenal fan (probably due to some early head injury!) myself
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  #4870  
Old 23.03.2022, 10:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Yeah. No. I still prefer Christiane.
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  #4871  
Old 23.03.2022, 10:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I thought he was a decent man with iron balls — he should have sent all Gazprom contracts in the same direction as the war ship.
1. zelensky is talking head, nothing more
2. if there would be collateral decision to stop gas supplies it would be stopped
3. you continue manipulating
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  #4872  
Old 23.03.2022, 12:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Most comprehensible research I have ever found on early NATO expansion negotiations - long read if you try to make sense of declassified documents:
Savranskaya, Svetlana, and Tom Blanton. (2017) “NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard.” 12 December 2017. The National Security Archive Website.
-> https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...-leaders-early

more sources below [if anyone cares to have a summary plus argument, pm me - I will send you my semester paper (2019)]

References:

Berryman, John. (2011) “Russia, NATO Enlargement, and “Regions of Privileged Interests”. In Kanet, Roger (Ed.): Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. 228-245. Springer.

Congressional Research Service (CRS). (2019) “U.S. Sanctions on Russia: An Overview.” CRS Website. <https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45415> European Statistical Office (Eurostat). (2018)

“EU Imports of Energy Products – Recent Developments.” Eurostat website. <https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/46126.pdf>

Götz, Elias. (2015) “It’s Geopolitics, Stupid: Explaining Russia’s Ukraine Policy.” Global Affairs 1.1: 3-10. <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23340460.2015.960184>

Götz, Elias. (2016) “Russia, the West, and the Ukraine Crisis: Three Contending Perspectives.” Contemporary politics 22.3: 249-266. <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13569775.2016.1201313>

Hutcheson, Derek S. and No Petersson. (2016) “Shortcut to Legitimacy: Popularity in Putin’s Russia.” Europe-Asia Studies 68.7: 1107-1126. <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2016.1216949>

Kissinger, Henry A. (2016) “Kissinger’s Vision for US-Russia Relations.” The National Interest. 4 February 2016. <https://nationalinterest.org/feature/kissingers-vision-us-russia-relations-15111>

Kofman, Michael, and Matthew Rojansky. (2018) “What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria?” Military Review 24: 6-23. <https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/Rojansky-Victory-for-Russia-1.pdf>

Krug, Christian, and Kalina Oroschakoff. (2017) “Germany and Austria Warn US Over Expanded Russia Sanctions.” POLITICO Europe Website. 15 June. <https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-and-austria-warn-u-s-over-expanded-russia-sanctions>

Lavrov, Sergey V. (2016) “Russia’s Foreign Policy in a Historical Perspective.” Russia in Global Affairs 14(2). <https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/Russias-Foreign-Policy-in-a-Historical-Perspective-18067>

Mankoff, Jeffrey, and Andrew Kuchins. (2015) “Russia, Ukraine, and US Policy Options: A Briefing Memo.” Center for Strategic and International Studies 29. <http://csis.org/files/publication/150129_Mankoff_RussiaUkraineUSOptions_Web.pdf>
15

Matlary, Janne Haaland. (2018) Hard Power in Hard Times: Can Europe Act Strategically? Springer.

NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). (1999) NATO Press Release NAC-S(99)66. 24 April 1999. NATO Website. <https://www.nato.int/docu/pr/1999/p99-066e.htm>

Nygren, Bertil. (2011) “Russia and Georgia – From Confrontation to War: What is Next?” In Kanet, Roger (Ed.): Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. 101-120. Springer.

Obama, Barack. (2010) National Security Strategy of the United States of America. National Security Strategy Archive. <http://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2010/>

Obama, Barack. (2015) National Security Strategy of the United States of America. National Security Strategy Archive <http://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2015/>

Oldberg, Ingmar. (2011) “Aims and Means in Russian Foreign Policy.” In Kanet, Roger (Ed.): Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. 30-58. Springer.

Putin, Vladimir. (2000) Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. Federation of American Scientist Website. <https://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/econcept.htm>

Putin, Vladimir. (2007) “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy.” Transcript. President of Russia Website. 12 February 2007. <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034>

Putin, Vladimir. (2008) Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. President of Russia Website. <http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116>

Putin, Vladimir. (2016) Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Website. <http://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2542248?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw&_101_INST ANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw_languageId=en_GB>

Savranskaya, Svetlana, and Tom Blanton. (2017) “NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard.” 12 December 2017. The National Security Archive Website. <https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early>

Sergunin, Alexander. (2016) Explaining Russian Foreign Policy Behavior: Theory and Practice. Vol. 147. Columbia University Press. Shearman, Peter. (2011) “History, Russia and the West, and Cold Wars.” In Kanet, Roger (Ed.): Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. 11-29. Springer.

Stoltenberg, Jens. (2019) “Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the Meeting of the NATO-Russia Council”. 25 January 2019. NATO Website. <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_162658.htm>

Trenin, Dmitri. (2009) “Russia’s Spheres of Interest, not Influence.” The Washington Quarterly 32.4: 3-22. <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01636600903231089>

Trump, Donald J. (2017) National Security Strategy of the United States of America. National Security Strategy Archive. <http://nssarchive.us/national-security-strategy-2017/>

The Moscow Times. (2019) “Trump Extends U.S. Sanctions Against Russia Over Crimea.” The Moscow Times Website. 5 March 2019. <https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/trump-extends-us-sanctions-against-russia-over-crimea-a64711>

Ziegler, Charles E. (2016) “Russia on the Rebound: Using and Misusing the Responsibility to Protect.” International Relations 30.3: 346-361. <https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177
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  #4873  
Old 23.03.2022, 14:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Brexit / anti-EU element on here should usefully listen to (OK, read) from about 0:25 to 0:51.
around the 3 minute mark there's an interesting part about switzerland and neutrality.
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  #4874  
Old 23.03.2022, 15:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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stop manipulating. UA fulfilling contractual obligations towards EU
its not UA paying for the gas its EU countries
How can you replace gas suppliers so soon? The whole dependancy on the Russian gas has been going on for decades. There are a few countries which always got nice deals with Russia, in exchange for other favours of course, and now they won't or cannot give them up so soon.
But they (EU) plan to "fix" some things..
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-s...immermans-iea/

Last edited by greenmount; 23.03.2022 at 15:40.
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Old 23.03.2022, 15:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This conflict is absolutely black and white for the whole civilized world. It's the war between good and evil.
No, it is not. Follow the money. To make my statement simple - I mean the (in particular, US) military industry.

PS CNN is also propaganda, just a little bit more sophisticated than Russian TV. Or maybe it's the other way around 😵💫
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Old 23.03.2022, 15:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No, it is not. Follow the money. To make my statement simple - I mean the (in particular, US) military industry.

PS CNN is also propaganda, just a little bit more sophisticated than Russian TV. Or maybe it's the other way around 😵💫
If it's not, then tell us why in clear words instead of asking to follow the money.
Let's make it simpler - 2014 and before - what was not black and white there?
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Old 23.03.2022, 15:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If it's not, then tell us why in clear words instead of asking to follow the money.
Let's make it simpler - 2014 and before - what was not black and white there?
Maybe Russia started this war to make the US military industry rich?
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Old 23.03.2022, 15:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How can you replace gas suppliers so soon? The whole dependancy on the Russian gas has been going on for decades. There are a few countries which always got nice deals with Russia, in exchange for other favours of course, and now they won't or cannot give them up so soon.
But they (EU) plan to "fix" some things..
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-s...immermans-iea/
From the article you link:

Quote:
The EU can cut most of its reliance on Russian gas by the end of this year if governments implement a raft of emergency measures to be proposed by the European Commission on Tuesday.
Only 9 months, that fast? I need to see it to believe it. At the same time, I want to believe.

There are several estimates of what happens if Europe stops buying Russian natural gas, 2-3% of Russian GDP is gone. https://www.statista.com/chart/26927...ns-per-sector/
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Old 23.03.2022, 15:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Nato will not send troops at least now, but jfyi, ww3 already started
and Nato definitely helping. if one not see it, doesnt means its not happening
Moreover, 13 countries including ones in Nato, decided to solve UA problem with air defense
You might want to learn to make an argument. The post above is a perfect example of a general statement with zero substance.
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Old 23.03.2022, 16:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If it's not, then tell us why in clear words instead of asking to follow the money.
Let's make it simpler - 2014 and before - what was not black and white there?
I refer to the first link in post 4872.
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