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Old 02.04.2022, 13:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I firmly believe these so called negotiations are in totally bad faith on the part of the Russians, and I recall some "Kremlinologists" saying early on that he is not considered a powerful guy = has no real mandate to negotiate.
That is most certainly an option. I was watching his face and hand gestures, including on replay, and he seemed increasingly uncomfortable - hence the conclusion.
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Old 02.04.2022, 13:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I disagree, It would be smart to proceed, advising everyone of the timings and approximate locations.

Life has to continue despite the bully in the next playground misbehaving.
I let someone smarter and more educated than me respond:

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/sta...OmBhCYDyQ&s=19

This guy - who I really recommend to follow - is a Russia and nuclear expert who has taught at the US Naval War College for 25 years.
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Old 02.04.2022, 13:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think it´s a case of "rally around the leader" Russian citizens have been given a spoon fed diet of spun truths, and truths fitting the agenda, outright truths, repetition, repetition, repetition and a strong leader telling apathetic people what to do.
It´s roughly the same way advertising works by the way.
Ever since we have had "leaders" it´s a tried and tested method to get "your" tribe behind you.
In the end it´s just a case of the right words and actions gettin a bunch of monkeys in one tree to buy crap they don´t need or to hate the bunch of monkeys in the other tree.
It´s the human condition and it´s all the same.
Remember Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney? Rallying around the flag? Civilian casualties? But, yes the US are a Democracy, so this was something entirely different 🙄

Emotions aside, in my personal opinion, the only somewhat normal player on the international arena is the EU - simply because so many interests are represented.
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  #5344  
Old 02.04.2022, 14:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Jeeez, Minuteman III, a 1960ties missile, think 12" floppy disk and tape, where do they even get spares for them things... Museums and ebay?
True, both sides in this war are also mostly using Soviet era weaponry.

"Russian troops are “slowly but noticeably” moving out of the north of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky".
What a humiliation for the Russian army that was always claimed to be one of the world's best.

They now seem to be focussing on expanding the Eastern separatist zones and creating a land corridor to Crimea.

There are claims the Russians are leaving their dead behind as they retreat, lots of videos of dead bodies left in the streets but like in this one from Bucha it is not clear if they are Russian soldiers.
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Old 02.04.2022, 14:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are claims the Russians are leaving their dead behind as they retreat, lots of videos of dead bodies left in the streets but like in this one from Bucha it is not clear if they are Russian soldiers.
They look more like civilians than soldiers I´m afraid.
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Old 02.04.2022, 14:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are claims the Russians are leaving their dead behind as they retreat, lots of videos of dead bodies left in the streets but like in this one from Bucha it is not clear if they are Russian soldiers.
The person who uploaded the video mentions in the text that they are civilians.
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Old 02.04.2022, 17:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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UA will need offensive weapons in order to have a chance of pushing the Russians back in at least part of the country.

We cannot engage in de-escalation only, we have escalated the economic war and I don't think other than rethorically it will make a difference whether we supply anti-aircraft missiles or those half-useless tanks.
I always thought Ukraine had no chance of winning this war, they have shown great ability to slow and damage the Russian army.

Now with the Russians withdrawing from some areas and according to some videos and photos they are abandoning vehicles and even some supplies, I do see a very faint hope of Ukraine winning.

The best thing for Ukraine would be if Putin decides his generals are incompetent and starts issuing orders directly to the military in Ukraine. Some people believe this is already happening, for example, they believe the seriously failed push to Odesa was ordered by Putin which meant the Russian military was too thinly spread and due to Ukraine's ambushes poorly supplied.

Ukraine's guerilla ambush tactic of using small groups mostly armed with anti-tank weapons and sniper rifles is claimed to be very successful.
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Old 02.04.2022, 17:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The best thing for Ukraine would be if Putin decides his generals are incompetent and starts issuing orders directly to the military in Ukraine. Some people believe this is already happening, for example, they believe the seriously failed push to Odesa was ordered by Putin which meant the Russian military was too thinly spread and due to Ukraine's ambushes poorly supplied.
There has been a Western intelligence report this week (cannot remember where) that said that the Russian military in Ukraine indeed has no field commander but was getting orders from Moscow. Doesn't mean Putin, but probably close to Putin. And far away from the field. The assessment was that this is a very, let's say unusual way to lead a war.
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  #5349  
Old 02.04.2022, 17:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Emotions aside, in my personal opinion, the only somewhat normal player on the international arena is the EU - simply because so many interests are represented.
Really?

I think the EU is still a mess in the international arena, and a lot of the current mess (in particular not being able to fully go to economic war with Russia) is self-inflicted. EU member states have shown signs of pulling it together and wanting to build up own military competence and energy independence lately. This is good, but there is a long way to go.
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Old 02.04.2022, 18:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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One more thing. The Americans in the German-speaking part of Switzerland are often referred to as "die Amis". I assure you it's a derogatory term.
How good is your german if you think " Amis " is a derogatory term?
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Old 02.04.2022, 18:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If only it were that easy.

In just the same way that all 140 million plus of them are not Putin fanboys blindly following and agreeing with him they’re not all against him either.

What is it that you don’t get? Not all Russians are the same, just as all Ukrainians aren’t the same or any other nationality for that matter. Sharing a nationality with somebody doesn’t mean you have to think like them or agree with them.
I agree.
Real life is much more twisted and complex than people would like.

I have seen claims that 10% of Ukraine military are ethnic Russians and 20% of the Russian military are ethnic Ukrainians, no idea if this is correct.

What I do know is that one of the most competent Russian generals in Ukraine is Lieutenant-General Mikhail Zusko who is an ethnic Ukrainian.
Here is a nice video of him handing out medals.

He was one of the two generals leading the failed assault on Odesa which gives strength to the rumour that the military is getting orders from Moscow, Zusko alone would never have organised the assault so poorly and the other general, Lieutenant-General Rezantsev, was also very competent.
Rezantsev is believed to have been killed by Ukrainian artillery shelling of Kherson airport.
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  #5352  
Old 02.04.2022, 18:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I have seen claims that 10% of Ukraine military are ethnic Russians and 20% of the Russian military are ethnic Ukrainians, no idea if this is correct.
The proportion might be different but in general it is true. That's why this war is not an ethnic conflict. Otherwise Russia wouldn't bomb Russian speaking cities to the ground.
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Old 02.04.2022, 19:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How good is your german if you think " Amis " is a derogatory term?
Depends on context, when negativ the Term is used on the same Level as „Frog, Eytie, Kraut, Mick... etc.“ would be in English speaking countries.
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  #5354  
Old 02.04.2022, 19:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How good is your german if you think " Amis " is a derogatory term?
10 years of learning and my ex-husband is Swiss (he explained that and much more)... including what his co-workers and friends think lately (yes, we are still talking in spite of everything.. to the extent that he checks on my best friend and her niece, both in Russia)
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Old 02.04.2022, 20:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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One more thing. The Americans in the German-speaking part of Switzerland are often referred to as "die Amis". I assure you it's a derogatory term.
It’s not. It’s just like saying Germans, the Brits etc.
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  #5356  
Old 02.04.2022, 20:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It’s not. It’s just like saying Germans, the Brits etc.
Let's agree to disagree on this one.
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Old 02.04.2022, 21:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Hope this is true
"Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, said Saturday that the Kyiv region had been "liberated" from Russian forces.

She said in a post on Facebook that Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, and "the whole Kyiv region was liberated from the invader.""

I assume Ukraine's "denazification" is now on the back burner and has transmogrified into "let us grab as much land as we can and hope this will somehow strengthen our peace negotiation" unless the Ukrainians are able to "hand us our arse".
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Old 02.04.2022, 21:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The proportion might be different but in general it is true. That's why this war is not an ethnic conflict. Otherwise Russia wouldn't bomb Russian speaking cities to the ground.
True.
And presumably why Russian speaking cities did not welcome the Russian invaders, contrary to Putin's rhetoric.
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  #5359  
Old 02.04.2022, 22:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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...another gas war, for supplying gas to energy weak Europe... Russian people are not trapped by Putin, because Putin is a product of Russian people way of thinking...gas wars started as soon Putin come to power, gas are the power behind Putin...cheap gas for Europe is the tool for economical growth, cheap Turkmen gas is monopolised by Russians pipes...Putin use gas to rebuild his Soviet Empire... countries with the biggest gas reserves are Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran...Kurdistan have quite big reserves, so was attempt for supplying gas to Nabucco project but it ended in Syrian war, same as all Arabian wars, all of them related to gas supply...so again people dying, because of capitalist sharks...if someone want to win war against Putin, just don't buy gas from him...
I am not sure what your point is, however, today despite all the Russian threats the Russian gas is flowing as normal into the EU and Germany.
Of course, if Putin does turn off the gas then this would be a "breach" of the contract which, eventually, would be very, very expensive for Russia.
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Old 02.04.2022, 23:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree.
Real life is much more twisted and complex than people would like.

I have seen claims that 10% of Ukraine military are ethnic Russians and 20% of the Russian military are ethnic Ukrainians, no idea if this is correct.

What I do know is that one of the most competent Russian generals in Ukraine is Lieutenant-General Mikhail Zusko who is an ethnic Ukrainian.
Here is a nice video of him handing out medals.

He was one of the two generals leading the failed assault on Odesa which gives strength to the rumour that the military is getting orders from Moscow, Zusko alone would never have organised the assault so poorly and the other general, Lieutenant-General Rezantsev, was also very competent.
Rezantsev is believed to have been killed by Ukrainian artillery shelling of Kherson airport.
Rumours that Lieutenant-General Mikhail Zusko will be appointed overall field commander for the Russian forces in Ukraine. Would not be good news for Ukraine to have a really competent Russian general in control, so far this role was filled by a non military experienced "apparatchik".
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