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Old 05.06.2014, 22:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "If you really want to criticize Putin, ask him why he gave a gas prices far under international market to the Ukrainians in the first place"
I thought that price was all part of the deal about the Black Sea fleet and Sevastopol harbour?
My point was that Ukraine has found ways to deal with Russia wonderfully even with the most nationalistic idiotic governments before the external intervention pushed the last one. Neither Putin nor anybody else in both countries actually fight each other. If you ask me, Kiev got away with quite a lot since independence. Russia had clear defined demands, the rest was for Kiev to organize, and we've seen what "organization" means in Ukraine independently of what side is in power.
As for the present crisis, it's purely a geopolitical game with the US in the background. Europe is irrelevant in that matter, and it is in my eyes very reasonable of Merkel not to intervene. Sanctions are idiotic. It's like asking Putin to accept to loose money but keep cooperation when the US needs it. Nobody in Russia will blame Obama to take care of his country's interests, but they won't blame Putin for doing the same either.
As for Crimea, it's the king of idiots Eltsin who basically didn't want to take the time to solve the issue right away in the weeks preceding independence. Kravchuk basically had to keep Crimea whether he wanted or not. A time bomb. Now it's solved. The end.
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  #542  
Old 05.06.2014, 23:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia has been pulling Ukraine towards tighter political and economic cooperation on Russia's terms (EuroAsian union). Some in Ukraine didn't really want it, so for a while they were teased with a link to EU instead (to get some concessions from Russia). Then the Kiev protests ensued, and a hidden power game ousted Yanukovych.

Looks like Russians were planning well-in-advance the "military excercises" and green peoples infiltration, so maybe weren't surprised by coup d'etat in Kiev.

This is a very Europe-relevant thing as this is reshaping the borders by one of the big players for the first time since '45. And even if US "needs" Russia elsewhere, it wants Europe to hold together and not some countries to form a de-facto alliance with Russia (and long term against other European countries). In this regard France might be missing a big turning point...
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  #543  
Old 08.06.2014, 13:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Royal Navy sends warship to Baltic amid continuing Ukraine tensions

Must be time to clean out our bomb shelters.
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  #544  
Old 09.06.2014, 08:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My point was that Ukraine has found ways to deal with Russia wonderfully even with the most nationalistic idiotic governments before the external intervention pushed the last one. Neither Putin nor anybody else in both countries actually fight each other. If you ask me, Kiev got away with quite a lot since independence. Russia had clear defined demands, the rest was for Kiev to organize, and we've seen what "organization" means in Ukraine independently of what side is in power.
As for the present crisis, it's purely a geopolitical game with the US in the background. Europe is irrelevant in that matter, and it is in my eyes very reasonable of Merkel not to intervene. Sanctions are idiotic. It's like asking Putin to accept to loose money but keep cooperation when the US needs it. Nobody in Russia will blame Obama to take care of his country's interests, but they won't blame Putin for doing the same either.
As for Crimea, it's the king of idiots Eltsin who basically didn't want to take the time to solve the issue right away in the weeks preceding independence. Kravchuk basically had to keep Crimea whether he wanted or not. A time bomb. Now it's solved. The end.
You are a bit extreme in several points
>> Ukraine under the toppled President gradually lost any real independence
>> none of the governments in question were "idiotic"
>> the Russian "demands" were not something to get "organized"
>> as both France and Britain play the "Mourir pour Danzig ? " game, Mrs Merkel simply goes for REALPOLITIK and encourages Mr Steinmeier to ally with Mr Burkhalter, moving Germany into a kind of Neutrality
>> Sanctions indeed ARE rubbish. Interesting is to see how Obama pushes NATO towards the Russian (including WhiteRussa) border .... he can do so as not in danger of losing a presidential election !
>> Yeltsin was NOT an idiot at all. He just, as Mrs Merkel now, was doing REALPOLITIK

And now towards a real solution proposal. Russia and Ukraine could unite under the Ukraine-Russia name but moving the Capital to Kiev ! Both Ukrainian and Russian to be official country languages, White Russia to be invited to join the New Ukraine-Russia
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  #545  
Old 09.06.2014, 17:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Mass protests forced the president of the Georgian breakaway republic Abkhazia from power last week.
De-facto President Aleksander Ankvab resigned on June 1 after putting up only token resistance to a diverse band of opposition groups who stormed the building from which he governed.

Will Moscow use this chance to annex another pro-Russian area?
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  #546  
Old 11.06.2014, 23:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Mass protests forced the president of the Georgian breakaway republic Abkhazia from power last week.
De-facto President Aleksander Ankvab resigned on June 1 after putting up only token resistance to a diverse band of opposition groups who stormed the building from which he governed.

Will Moscow use this chance to annex another pro-Russian area?
Russia could have done so for years, but apparently is not very eager to push the matter

Putin is NOT a coward, but very much up to REALpolitik and may love to establish some buffer republics between Russia and the Caucasus
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  #547  
Old 11.06.2014, 23:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

There is quite a high respect for soviet borders in the Russian world. It's hard to understand from far west, but it's like they know better than we do that changing any square meter is a pandora's box. No, Crimea is NOT a contradiction. I know, the east is not a binary world.
Abkhasia is anti-Tbilissi with or without Moscow. It's a way for Russia to make sure Georgia is never nato-compatible.
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  #548  
Old 12.06.2014, 23:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There is quite a high respect for soviet borders in the Russian world. It's hard to understand from far west, but it's like they know better than we do that changing any square meter is a pandora's box. No, Crimea is NOT a contradiction. I know, the east is not a binary world.
Abkhasia is anti-Tbilissi with or without Moscow. It's a way for Russia to make sure Georgia is never nato-compatible.
NATO may or will expand, even if not right now, regardless of Abchasia. The problems for Georgia are Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russia may be better served by 4 fairly pro-Russian Caucasian republics inside NATO than with just a few square-meters of additional territory.

Crimea only became Ukrainian when Nikita gave it to HIS home country Ukraine. It was part of the Turkish Empire until Empress Katharina II conquered it. Alright, I am with you when you demand that the Crimea should be handed to Turkey
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  #549  
Old 13.06.2014, 00:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia may be better served by 4 fairly pro-Russian Caucasian republics inside NATO
For a Russian brain, this sentence is totally and utterly non-sense. There is no communication possible with Moscow with such sentences. Right or wrong is another issue, I am just making a point about thought process.
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  #550  
Old 13.06.2014, 01:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For a Russian brain, this sentence is totally and utterly non-sense. There is no communication possible with Moscow with such sentences. Right or wrong is another issue, I am just making a point about thought process.
Such sentences were common place with Czar Peter the Great and Empress Katharina II. You should not forget that Mr Putin is not from Central Russia but from the Baltics (Leningrad) . Not only the Romanov were not really Russian, but many of the Soviet--Russian leaders after 1918 as well.

At the other hand, a typical Russian may regard a takeover of Abkhazia as rubbish and may rather insist on taking over Georgia and Armenia and Azerbaijan as well.

Here again another problem. Baku-Azerbaijan is just the smaller Azerbaijan, with Täbriz-Azerbaijan being the far larger one. If you realize that a good part of the Iranian military top staff is Azeri, you may see some interesting possibilities for Mr Putin. Inspired a bit by the present upheaval in Iraq of course
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  #551  
Old 13.06.2014, 09:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I am not sure I understand where the disagreement is between Wollishofener and Faltrad...
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  #552  
Old 13.06.2014, 09:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am not sure I understand where the disagreement is between Wollishofener and Faltrad...
My point: Pro Russian Nato-Republic is an oxymoron, a contradiction in terms, a conceptual impossibility…

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Such sentences were common place with Czar Peter the Great and Empress Katharina II.
You do know that quite a few things happened since then, don't you?
Nato and Russia are totally, utterly and absolutely incompatible for Moscow as well as for Skt Peterburg, Irkutsk, Magadan, Krasnodar and the rest.
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  #553  
Old 13.06.2014, 17:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am not sure I understand where the disagreement is between Wollishofener and Faltrad...
There can't be true agreement or disagreement if they're not even on the same frequency. One deals with reality and the other with irrelevant historical trivia.
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  #554  
Old 13.06.2014, 17:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia is incompatible with the western world. They have completely different axioms regarding human rights, governance, civility.
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  #555  
Old 13.06.2014, 17:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia has been pulling Ukraine towards tighter political and economic cooperation on Russia's terms (EuroAsian union). Some in Ukraine didn't really want it, so for a while they were teased with a link to EU instead (to get some concessions from Russia). Then the Kiev protests ensued, and a hidden power game ousted Yanukovych.

Looks like Russians were planning well-in-advance the "military excercises" and green peoples infiltration, so maybe weren't surprised by coup d'etat in Kiev.

This is a very Europe-relevant thing as this is reshaping the borders by one of the big players for the first time since '45. And even if US "needs" Russia elsewhere, it wants Europe to hold together and not some countries to form a de-facto alliance with Russia (and long term against other European countries). In this regard France might be missing a big turning point...
Wasn't only a few days ago when the French foreign minister Laurent Fabius declared that E.U. is not ready to integrate Ukraine? So far, Ukraine lost Crimea and it on the way of losing a chunk from the Eastern side, and gained.... Meantime, the German-Russian friendship is stronger than ever, there is nothing that France or anyone else can do, it is a bad timing in Europe (see the rise of far-right parties etc etc) I'm afraid it will be really bad for Ukraine and others in the area - Moldova, Georgia etc.
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  #556  
Old 13.06.2014, 18:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia is incompatible with the western world. They have completely different axioms regarding human rights, governance, civility.
Let me rephrase the Russian way. Same thing, just processed differently cognitively speaking:

Russia is for multipolarism while atlantist western countries want to impose unipolar US world domination, Nato being the armed branch.

Works for China too, btw. France is a special case as always, the one tradition is multipolarist, the unipolarists being in the same party. German is strange: politicians are atlantist unipolarist in theory big time, put let live multipolarists in Realpolitik, population is mostly pacifist and don't relate to armed alliances, even if pacifism doesn't mean much nowadays.

Last edited by Faltrad; 13.06.2014 at 20:40.
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  #557  
Old 14.06.2014, 00:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My point: Pro Russian Nato-Republic is an oxymoron, a contradiction in terms, a conceptual impossibility…


You do know that quite a few things happened since then, don't you?
Nato and Russia are totally, utterly and absolutely incompatible for Moscow as well as for Skt Peterburg, Irkutsk, Magadan, Krasnodar and the rest.
You might remember how much military hardware was delivered to the Soviet Union in WW-II wartime (DC-3 --- LI-2). In those times, the USSR itself was an ally of the Western alliance --- But if those are right who say that ISIS is just an offshoot of the Syrian Mukhabarat and that the weapons come from Russia, matters become complicated



Right now, President Obama is working on some kind of intervention in Iraq. He will need Russian support, and only can get this by making some deals. I don't know what deals will result, but that some deals ARE to result is obvious
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  #558  
Old 14.06.2014, 00:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia is incompatible with the western world. They have completely different axioms regarding human rights, governance, civility.
But what exactly IS the "Western World" ? Does it only go up to the Oder-Neisse Line ? of the the Curzon / Brest-Litovsk Line ? What are THEY ? The Russians as people ? Or the ruling KGB clique of Vladimir .... ?
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  #559  
Old 14.06.2014, 00:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Wasn't only a few days ago when the French foreign minister Laurent Fabius declared that E.U. is not ready to integrate Ukraine? So far, Ukraine lost Crimea and it on the way of losing a chunk from the Eastern side, and gained.... Meantime, the German-Russian friendship is stronger than ever, there is nothing that France or anyone else can do, it is a bad timing in Europe (see the rise of far-right parties etc etc) I'm afraid it will be really bad for Ukraine and others in the area - Moldova, Georgia etc.
Germany in fact is moving into neutrality. France and Britain simply do NOT WANT to "Mourir pour Danzig". It is not a question whether they CAN DO, it is the reaity that Britain and France just as in the days of Neville Chamberlain and Mr Daladier do NOT want to do anything. So that Mrs Merkel has chosen the Bismarck'sche approach

Interesting that now the three countries with German speaking majorities are at least defacto neutral.
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  #560  
Old 14.06.2014, 02:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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France and Britain simply do NOT WANT to "Mourir pour Danzig". It is not a question whether they CAN DO, it is the reaity that Britain and France just as in the days of Neville Chamberlain and Mr Daladier do NOT want to do anything. So that Mrs Merkel has chosen the Bismarck'sche approach
I think that you are looking too far back in history. USSR and cold war times explain most of what is happening in the east. The turning point for Moscow what the Rose and the Orange revolution because on episode that didn't make it big in the western media is the attempt at a red revolution in Moscow. The foreign NGO regulation, as anti democratic it actually is, is a rational response to a fact: it was indeed the way the putsch was prepared and financed.

It would be utterly naive to think that the US does not have an hostile policy against Russia to avoid at all price to change anything to the unipolar world inherited from the end of communism. I don't see why Russians, Chinese or any other place in the world should care about US geopolitical interest if they are not their own. For the US, love in a one way relationship and they want the better role. Well, nice for them sometimes, and tough on them other times. Don't ask why Putin should care but why some of you do, dear readers.
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