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  #5601  
Old 08.04.2022, 14:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I do not agree that the days of the battle tank are numbered.

What Russia has demonstrated in Ukraine is first that if you fail to follow the military doctrine of close air and flanking infantry support for your tank advances then you will lose your tanks.
Secondly, Soviet era tanks do not stand up well against anti tank weapons.
Fact is tanks are still a liability as whatever improvements are made over the years there's always a counter measure against them
& obviously they will always present a greater target.

Whereas humaniods encapsulated in Robocop type gear or even android humanoids will no doubt be all over the place in future conflicts
together with a vast array of drones.
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  #5602  
Old 08.04.2022, 14:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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maybe dropping sanctions wil be part of the deal-making and wider negotiations.
"Build your enemy a golden bridge to retreat over" attributed to Sun Tzu
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  #5603  
Old 08.04.2022, 14:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Reports on the BBC radio about two missiles targeting a train station in E. Ukraine where large queues of evacuees were patiently waiting for trains West.

I assume these weapons are reasonably accurate and two suggest they hit what they were aimed at.

What is the strategic objective to deliberately killing fleeing civilians? And deterring others from fleeing? Surely fewer civilians make it easier for the Russians.

The only explanation, to me, is simply kill for the sake of killing.
Now reported to be cluster munitions. The gift that just keeps on giving.
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  #5604  
Old 08.04.2022, 15:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You should write a post on Reddit to complain

Seriously, what vushka said is literally what President Zelensky said in his own words in an Economist interview last week. To paraphrase, he said that there is basically split in his allies: Those that want a quick resolution to this war like Germany and France, those that want Russia to be defeated/humiliated militarily like Poland and Czechia, and finally those that want a prolonged war in order to weaken Russia like US/UK.

Source

Volodymyr Zelensky in his own words

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...-his-own-words

For those who don't have a subscription you can watch the interview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNjiRmIWtss
The US havn´t learned anything from the end of the first world war, when the allied did a number on Germany and took them to the cleaners.
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  #5605  
Old 08.04.2022, 15:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US havn´t learned anything from the end of the first world war, when the allied did a number on Germany and took them to the cleaners.
Marshall Plan, West Germany.
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  #5606  
Old 08.04.2022, 16:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Marshall Plan, West Germany.
That was the second, not the first one.
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  #5607  
Old 08.04.2022, 16:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That was the second, not the first one.
Indeed, it's lessons learned from WW1 and the carrot comes after the war ends. Before war ends, only stick.
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  #5608  
Old 08.04.2022, 16:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Stupid people like me assume messages by Ukraine diplomats, Ukraine embassy in the UK, are representative of the Ukraine's public communication.

https://twitter.com/UkrEmbLondon/sta...06134692970499
He did ask for weapons (and ammunition...) with various occasions, but I think this is the most relevant one


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President Volodymyr Zelensky pressed a NATO summit Thursday to flood weapons into Ukraine and Western allies responded with new sanctions against Russia, promises of military aid, and discussion of expelling Moscow from the international G20 body.


As battles raged across Ukraine, with television footage showing a large Russian warship ablaze at dockside near the southern city of Mariupol, Zelensky addressed the emergency NATO summit and a G7 leaders' meeting by video link.

He said the West should provide "all the weapons we need" to "prevent the deaths of Ukrainians from Russian strikes, from Russian occupation."

Kicking off a day of intense diplomacy, US President Joe Biden made clear that the Western alliance was listening.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...sure-on-russia


Again, to say that "the West" wants them to continue fighting whereas they would rather surrender is a BIG LIE.
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  #5609  
Old 08.04.2022, 17:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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He did ask for weapons (and ammunition...) with various occasions, but I think this is the most relevant one



https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...sure-on-russia


Again, to say that "the West" wants them to continue fighting whereas they would rather surrender is a BIG LIE.
Ukrainians don't want to surrender, but I'm sure you will agree, that "the longer Putin bleeds, the bigger the probability of removing him is".

What happens if war ends today, sanctions are cancelled, and Putin stays in power? I don't think that "Problem solved" stamp would be ready to use in that scenario.
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  #5610  
Old 08.04.2022, 17:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukrainians don't want to surrender, but I'm sure you will agree, that "the longer Putin bleeds, the bigger the probability of removing him is".
I'm not sure if it's really true that dragging it on will make it easier to remove him.

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What happens if war ends today, sanctions are cancelled, and Putin stays in power?
Fewer people die. But some long-term workable agreement needs to be reached first.

It seems that UA is ready to agree to abandon NATO membership (wouldn't have happened anyway so that one is a red herring) but maybe RU loses out here because after this episode, UA will have more weapons than ever and is being armed by NATO even if not a member.

UA agreed to not seek nuclear weapons.

Finding an agreement on Crimea and Donbass seems much more difficult.

The outcome of the war is still a big unknown, can one side or the other achieve a quick and decisive victory? Or will it be a multi-year drawn out affair. If the latter, will Russia be willing to fight over years or will they use more extreme measures to end it quickly?
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  #5611  
Old 08.04.2022, 17:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm not sure if it's really true that dragging it on will make it easier to remove him.



Fewer people die. But some long-term workable agreement needs to be reached first.
It's not about dragging - it's about draining Russia financially deeper. So deep, that even the zombies in Russia will wake up because of the poverty.

And just to be clear - I don't like that concept at all, but I can imagine that for some of the west countries it can be seen as useful.
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  #5612  
Old 08.04.2022, 17:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The only way Ukraine agrees to neutrality is if it is armed to the teeth. Allegedly Russia demanded that Ukraine cannot have more than 50.000 soldiers ... demilitarization, you know.
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  #5613  
Old 08.04.2022, 18:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What is the strategic objective to deliberately killing fleeing civilians?
Did you see any point in any other "strategic" decisions of Russia in this war?

Russia is a terroristic organisation and uses the methods of terrorists. That's its main strategy.
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  #5614  
Old 08.04.2022, 18:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Did you see any point in any other "strategic" decisions of Russia in this war?

Russia is a terroristic organisation and uses the methods of terrorists. That's its main strategy.
Cf: Syria.
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  #5615  
Old 08.04.2022, 20:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukrainians don't want to surrender, but I'm sure you will agree, that "the longer Putin bleeds, the bigger the probability of removing him is".

What happens if war ends today, sanctions are cancelled, and Putin stays in power? I don't think that "Problem solved" stamp would be ready to use in that scenario.
He's a thug and will strike again once the West is sleeping in their shoes again.
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  #5616  
Old 08.04.2022, 20:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's not about dragging - it's about draining Russia financially deeper. So deep, that even the zombies in Russia will wake up because of the poverty.

And just to be clear - I don't like that concept at all, but I can imagine that for some of the west countries it can be seen as useful.
But you have clear examples such as Cuba and Iran where it didn't work at all even after many years.
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  #5617  
Old 08.04.2022, 21:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This is one of the more bizarre statements of Ms Zakharova. Maybe the native speakers can listen in to say whether this feels real. My first reaction was "must be fake".

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...65165227958272
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  #5618  
Old 08.04.2022, 21:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But you have clear examples such as Cuba and Iran where it didn't work at all even after many years.
When was the last time Cuba and Iran invaded other countries? It works.
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  #5619  
Old 08.04.2022, 21:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But you have clear examples such as Cuba and Iran where it didn't work at all even after many years.
Who took down Tsar while being pushed to the edge?

"
As a result of the defeats suffered in World War I, there was a weakening of the authority of Tsar Nicholas II. The monarch believed that he was an instrument in the hand of God, answerable only to him, and was appointed by him to protect Orthodoxy and the Tsar's absolute power (self-rule)[13].

The Tsar lost real control over the country, and the Tsarina and Rasputin, if any minister opposed their opinion, urged the Tsar to resign the politician immediately. In this way, the most competent members of the government fell into disfavor. As a result, the government was made up almost entirely of losers and Rasputin's protégés. The Tsarina and Rasputin interfered in various areas of Russian empire life. The situation at the front and food shortages increased social discontent, which was focused on the Tsarina[14].
"

Sounds pretty familiar to me.
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  #5620  
Old 08.04.2022, 21:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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When was the last time Cuba and Iran invaded other countries? It works.
Iran is stirring up all sorts of conflicts in the Middle East and obviously that won't get better if the are becoming a nuclear power. So I am not sure this is a good example.

Sanctions are meant to punish bad behaviour, reduce the economic and technical capabilities to do more damage, and the removal of sanctions can serve as a motivator for rogue states to normalize. Can work, or not.
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