Likely most of the Russian elite military who were sent to invade major targets in the first days of the war have been killed or injured, Russia can call on hundreds of thousands of reservists but think quantity, not quality.

It will be years before Russia can put together a sizeable professional army and even then with mostly Soviet era equipment. It is claimed Russia has huge reserves of such equipment, it is also claimed the soldiers have stripped them down to sell valuable items like the optics.

Russia's newest tank the T-14 has yet to appear in Ukraine, they never revealed how many they have; probably less than 100 - could be as few as twenty. Due to sanctions blocking the Russian import of western high technology the chances of Russia now building large numbers of modern weapons are slim.

Your post does not change the fact that Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war, should they put their mind to it.

"little to none"?
From the NATO web site "Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Allies have agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
This brings the total number of multinational battlegroups to eight, extending all along NATO’s eastern flank – from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south."

A typical NATO battlegroup has tanks, infantry with armoured vehicles, heavy artillery, air defence, over 1,000 personnel, etc.

Lots more information in the NATO site if you are interested.

Now? They're bogged down in one quagmire, I don't think they'll be wanting a second front, especially with country with a strong national defence policy.
As Marton says, Russia's equipment isn't up to scratch, and we've seen their logistics and moral are dismal.

Probably the safest time to join NATO for exactly that reason.

There is a certain Russian pro-government Telegram channel, but the comment option is another matter... so I got banned today after posting about the fact that some medications are barely available in Russia... I posted very not so pro-government stuff before, nothing radical.. maybe because it comes from a Swiss number.. <shaking head>

Obviously I didn't mean now while engaged with Ukraine, Ato. I just meant generally speaking. Sigh.

That is exactly what I said in my post above.

Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war*, should they put their mind to it.

*Except for now, which I forgot to mention and relied on mind reading for others to imply?

It was clear from the context that it was a general statement.

If the obligation to defend allies was indeed such a NEGATIVE, there would be no NATO.

I was referring to deployment of strategic systems such as nuclear weapons and air defence systems and permanent deployment of forces, not temporary deployments in response to the Ukraine conflict.

Was it? Obviously not or others wouldn’t have misinterpreted it.
I don’t think your posts are always as clear to others as you like to think they are.

I think Russia would struggle to beat Andorra at the moment.

It depends on the relative strengths of the parties to the pact. Initially it might have made sense, but I think NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched.

Voicing membership to Ukraine and Georgia just lead to invasion of those countries. Existing NATO members have little appetite to get involved there. Having seen what happened to Ukraine and Georgia, I'm not sure that it would be sensible to roll the dice with Finland.

Yes, and I think FIN and SWE would be excellent members. Impeccable democracies, stable economies and modern militaries. Much more reliable than current members such as Hungary, if you ask me.

The 2008 communication was an utter mistake not by NATO as such as mostly by the US on one side and to a lesser degree Germany/France on the other. It was stupid to promise them membership without any realistic lane how to join. Either don't, or do it and follow up with a plan. I would argue that both countries at that time were light years away from being proper candidates.

In 2008 things looked a lot different than now, particularly in regards to Russia. Plus, nothing was really promised - this is politics after all. There was a clear opening and invitation to join the western block at some point in the future, and both Ukraine and Georgia were keen.

I don't think that was a mistake. After all, what was the alternative? It was either Nato or be at some point reintegrated in Putin's new old soviet union.
It might have been possible for Ukraine to become a truly neutral country as it is big enough and has enough resources to defend itself from its neighbors - but Ukraine wasn't and is not there yet. For Georgia armed neutrality is just not an option...

Correction, not 'if I have' but 'I have'

"NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched."

I would be interested to know why you believe "the credibility is already stretched"? Surely the more members there are then the more forces are available to join in the mutual defence.
As Russia has demonstrated they no longer have the capability to make a strong ground attack on multiple countries.

China might be a different case with a very large army with modern equipment but not really well positioned geographically to ground attack Europe.

No worries, he'll run to Xi. Hu has become a portal for Russia and China. Orban is very versatile, he has a special sense for what's fashionable. He started off as a true liberal and democrat, schooled at Soros university, in a time when liberalism was cool. Then he started copy-paste-ing KGB's manual so no worries, his flexibility and acrobatics will keep him in power.

Vladimir Kara-Murza, a long-standing Russian pro-democracy voice and close friend of the late Boris Nemtsov, was arrested in Moscow yesterday for opposition to the war. There is a great interview with him from the 2017 PBS documentary which is worth watching. He paints a clear picture of Putin's path from 1999 to 2017.

https://youtu.be/yIibXQU_dgo

He chose to go back to Russia recently, a Nawalny move. He said he could not be credible in calling for Russians to stand up against the regime from safe UK.

Hi all you effers

Just put on some fantastic music... and this came up...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-Y0SMitMpk

What with all these civilian graves being found, i thought it might fit!

with that, enjoy Easter y'all

Greg