Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Off-Topic > Off-Topic > International affairs/politics  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #5701  
Old 12.04.2022, 14:58
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,570
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,683 Times in 12,925 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Finland theoretically being on their side is obviously not the same thing as being in NATO. If Finland were in NATO then NATO would be obliged to defend it in the event of any attack. With Finland in NATO, NATO can also position weapons systems and deterrents in Finland. Finland know they can't stand up to Russia in modern warfare so it makes perfect sense for them to get into NATO where they will not need to stand alone if attacked.

At this point, who cares about 'more friction' with Russia... the time for countries to organise these things is now while Russia have their military hands full with Ukraine and the ongoing sanctions.
Likely most of the Russian elite military who were sent to invade major targets in the first days of the war have been killed or injured, Russia can call on hundreds of thousands of reservists but think quantity, not quality.

It will be years before Russia can put together a sizeable professional army and even then with mostly Soviet era equipment. It is claimed Russia has huge reserves of such equipment, it is also claimed the soldiers have stripped them down to sell valuable items like the optics.

Russia's newest tank the T-14 has yet to appear in Ukraine, they never revealed how many they have; probably less than 100 - could be as few as twenty. Due to sanctions blocking the Russian import of western high technology the chances of Russia now building large numbers of modern weapons are slim.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank marton for this useful post:
  #5702  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:03
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 14,255
Groaned at 1,470 Times in 967 Posts
Thanked 21,634 Times in 8,255 Posts
Chuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Likely most of the Russian elite military who were sent to invade major targets in the first days of the war have been killed or injured, Russia can call on hundreds of thousands of reservists but think quantity, not quality.

It will be years before Russia can put together a sizeable professional army and even then with mostly Soviet era equipment. It is claimed Russia has huge reserves of such equipment, it is also claimed the soldiers have stripped them down to sell valuable items like the optics.

Russia's newest tank the T-14 has yet to appear in Ukraine, they never revealed how many they have; probably less than 100 - could be as few as twenty. Due to sanctions blocking the Russian import of western high technology the chances of Russia now building large numbers of modern weapons are slim.
Your post does not change the fact that Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war, should they put their mind to it.
Reply With Quote
  #5703  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:13
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,570
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,683 Times in 12,925 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
That was my point and that is a NEGATIVE for NATO.



True but doubtful if it would happen as it would be too much provocation to Russia (in same way that US didn't accept missiles on Cuba). I'm not sure to what extent weapons/bases have been stationed in the recently joined countries - I presume little to none.



It's true that they are probably now too busy to respond immediately - in prior times there was more fear of Russia striking between applying and joining.

Though the US have made it clear that they would not be drawn into a war over Ukraine and that Ukraine wasn't within their vital interests. I doubt Finland would rank much higher in their priority list.
"little to none"?
From the NATO web site "Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Allies have agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
This brings the total number of multinational battlegroups to eight, extending all along NATO’s eastern flank – from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south."

A typical NATO battlegroup has tanks, infantry with armoured vehicles, heavy artillery, air defence, over 1,000 personnel, etc.

Lots more information in the NATO site if you are interested.
Reply With Quote
  #5704  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:18
Ato Ato is offline
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: ZH
Posts: 2,320
Groaned at 44 Times in 39 Posts
Thanked 4,730 Times in 1,870 Posts
Ato has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Your post does not change the fact that Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war, should they put their mind to it.
Now? They're bogged down in one quagmire, I don't think they'll be wanting a second front, especially with country with a strong national defence policy.
As Marton says, Russia's equipment isn't up to scratch, and we've seen their logistics and moral are dismal.

Probably the safest time to join NATO for exactly that reason.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Ato for this useful post:
  #5705  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:20
Aleydis's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Zurich
Posts: 1,041
Groaned at 37 Times in 30 Posts
Thanked 949 Times in 493 Posts
Aleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond reputeAleydis has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

There is a certain Russian pro-government Telegram channel, but the comment option is another matter... so I got banned today after posting about the fact that some medications are barely available in Russia... I posted very not so pro-government stuff before, nothing radical.. maybe because it comes from a Swiss number.. <shaking head>
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Aleydis for this useful post:
  #5706  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:22
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 14,255
Groaned at 1,470 Times in 967 Posts
Thanked 21,634 Times in 8,255 Posts
Chuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Now? They're bogged down in one quagmire, I don't think they'll be wanting a second front, especially with country with a strong national defence policy.
As Marton says, Russia's equipment isn't up to scratch, and we've seen their logistics and moral are dismal.
Obviously I didn't mean now while engaged with Ukraine, Ato. I just meant generally speaking. Sigh.

Quote:
View Post
Probably the safest time to join NATO for exactly that reason
That is exactly what I said in my post above.
Reply With Quote
  #5707  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:26
Ato Ato is offline
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: ZH
Posts: 2,320
Groaned at 44 Times in 39 Posts
Thanked 4,730 Times in 1,870 Posts
Ato has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond reputeAto has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
That is exactly what I said in my post above that you clearly didn't read properly, and yes obviously I mean they could beat Finland when not engaged with Ukraine.
Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war*, should they put their mind to it.

*Except for now, which I forgot to mention and relied on mind reading for others to imply?
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Ato for this useful post:
  #5708  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:30
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Zurich
Posts: 14,255
Groaned at 1,470 Times in 967 Posts
Thanked 21,634 Times in 8,255 Posts
Chuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond reputeChuff has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Russia could still beat Finland in any modern conventional war*, should they put their mind to it.

*Except for now, which I forgot to mention and relied on mind reading for others to imply?
It was clear from the context that it was a general statement.
Reply With Quote
  #5709  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:30
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,346
Groaned at 434 Times in 312 Posts
Thanked 9,572 Times in 4,056 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
That was my point and that is a NEGATIVE for NATO.
If the obligation to defend allies was indeed such a NEGATIVE, there would be no NATO.
Reply With Quote
  #5710  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:34
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Baselland
Posts: 15,819
Groaned at 310 Times in 209 Posts
Thanked 20,280 Times in 8,534 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
"little to none"?
From the NATO web site "Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Allies have agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
This brings the total number of multinational battlegroups to eight, extending all along NATO’s eastern flank – from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south."

A typical NATO battlegroup has tanks, infantry with armoured vehicles, heavy artillery, air defence, over 1,000 personnel, etc.

Lots more information in the NATO site if you are interested.
I was referring to deployment of strategic systems such as nuclear weapons and air defence systems and permanent deployment of forces, not temporary deployments in response to the Ukraine conflict.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #5711  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:41
Belgianmum's Avatar
Roastbeef & Yorkshire mod
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Neuchâtel
Posts: 15,264
Groaned at 319 Times in 274 Posts
Thanked 26,973 Times in 10,876 Posts
Belgianmum has a reputation beyond reputeBelgianmum has a reputation beyond reputeBelgianmum has a reputation beyond reputeBelgianmum has a reputation beyond reputeBelgianmum has a reputation beyond reputeBelgianmum has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It was clear from the context that it was a general statement.
Was it? Obviously not or others wouldn’t have misinterpreted it.
I don’t think your posts are always as clear to others as you like to think they are.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users would like to thank Belgianmum for this useful post:
  #5712  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:41
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Nyon
Posts: 8,568
Groaned at 540 Times in 399 Posts
Thanked 11,897 Times in 5,541 Posts
bowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond reputebowlie has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I think Russia would struggle to beat Andorra at the moment.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank bowlie for this useful post:
  #5713  
Old 12.04.2022, 15:42
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Baselland
Posts: 15,819
Groaned at 310 Times in 209 Posts
Thanked 20,280 Times in 8,534 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
If the obligation to defend allies was indeed such a NEGATIVE, there would be no NATO.
It depends on the relative strengths of the parties to the pact. Initially it might have made sense, but I think NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched.

Voicing membership to Ukraine and Georgia just lead to invasion of those countries. Existing NATO members have little appetite to get involved there. Having seen what happened to Ukraine and Georgia, I'm not sure that it would be sensible to roll the dice with Finland.
Reply With Quote
  #5714  
Old 12.04.2022, 16:31
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,346
Groaned at 434 Times in 312 Posts
Thanked 9,572 Times in 4,056 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It depends on the relative strengths of the parties to the pact. Initially it might have made sense, but I think NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched.

Voicing membership to Ukraine and Georgia just lead to invasion of those countries. Existing NATO members have little appetite to get involved there. Having seen what happened to Ukraine and Georgia, I'm not sure that it would be sensible to roll the dice with Finland.
Yes, and I think FIN and SWE would be excellent members. Impeccable democracies, stable economies and modern militaries. Much more reliable than current members such as Hungary, if you ask me.

The 2008 communication was an utter mistake not by NATO as such as mostly by the US on one side and to a lesser degree Germany/France on the other. It was stupid to promise them membership without any realistic lane how to join. Either don't, or do it and follow up with a plan. I would argue that both countries at that time were light years away from being proper candidates.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post:
  #5715  
Old 12.04.2022, 17:08
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Lausanne
Posts: 656
Groaned at 51 Times in 30 Posts
Thanked 788 Times in 414 Posts
dandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputationdandi has an excellent reputation
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It was stupid to promise them membership without any realistic lane how to join.
In 2008 things looked a lot different than now, particularly in regards to Russia. Plus, nothing was really promised - this is politics after all. There was a clear opening and invitation to join the western block at some point in the future, and both Ukraine and Georgia were keen.

I don't think that was a mistake. After all, what was the alternative? It was either Nato or be at some point reintegrated in Putin's new old soviet union.
It might have been possible for Ukraine to become a truly neutral country as it is big enough and has enough resources to defend itself from its neighbors - but Ukraine wasn't and is not there yet. For Georgia armed neutrality is just not an option...
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank dandi for this useful post:
  #5716  
Old 12.04.2022, 17:13
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Up there over the fog
Posts: 5,078
Groaned at 781 Times in 515 Posts
Thanked 4,942 Times in 2,625 Posts
JackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond reputeJackieH has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Correction, not 'if I have' but 'I have'
Reply With Quote
  #5717  
Old 12.04.2022, 17:57
marton's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kt. Zürich
Posts: 12,570
Groaned at 746 Times in 628 Posts
Thanked 24,683 Times in 12,925 Posts
marton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond reputemarton has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
It depends on the relative strengths of the parties to the pact. Initially it might have made sense, but I think NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched.

Voicing membership to Ukraine and Georgia just lead to invasion of those countries. Existing NATO members have little appetite to get involved there. Having seen what happened to Ukraine and Georgia, I'm not sure that it would be sensible to roll the dice with Finland.
"NATO has over expanded, the credibility of Art.5 mutual defence is already stretched."

I would be interested to know why you believe "the credibility is already stretched"? Surely the more members there are then the more forces are available to join in the mutual defence.
As Russia has demonstrated they no longer have the capability to make a strong ground attack on multiple countries.

China might be a different case with a very large army with modern equipment but not really well positioned geographically to ground attack Europe.
Reply With Quote
  #5718  
Old 12.04.2022, 21:08
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Kt.Zh
Posts: 12,460
Groaned at 490 Times in 405 Posts
Thanked 19,538 Times in 9,887 Posts
greenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond reputegreenmount has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote:
View Post
Viktor Orbán is still dreaming about a new nuclear power plant financed and built with Russian reactors. However, I think that power plant was one of the very first civilian casualties of the invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/ene...plant-project/
No worries, he'll run to Xi. Hu has become a portal for Russia and China. Orban is very versatile, he has a special sense for what's fashionable. He started off as a true liberal and democrat, schooled at Soros university, in a time when liberalism was cool. Then he started copy-paste-ing KGB's manual so no worries, his flexibility and acrobatics will keep him in power.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank greenmount for this useful post:
  #5719  
Old 12.04.2022, 22:30
komsomolez's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SZ
Posts: 4,346
Groaned at 434 Times in 312 Posts
Thanked 9,572 Times in 4,056 Posts
komsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond reputekomsomolez has a reputation beyond repute
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Vladimir Kara-Murza, a long-standing Russian pro-democracy voice and close friend of the late Boris Nemtsov, was arrested in Moscow yesterday for opposition to the war. There is a great interview with him from the 2017 PBS documentary which is worth watching. He paints a clear picture of Putin's path from 1999 to 2017.

https://youtu.be/yIibXQU_dgo

He chose to go back to Russia recently, a Nawalny move. He said he could not be credible in calling for Russians to stand up against the regime from safe UK.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users would like to thank komsomolez for this useful post:
  #5720  
Old 13.04.2022, 09:12
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: 4900 Langenthal
Posts: 222
Groaned at 6 Times in 5 Posts
Thanked 294 Times in 121 Posts
Greg Zimmermann has earned the respect of manyGreg Zimmermann has earned the respect of manyGreg Zimmermann has earned the respect of many
Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Hi all you effers

Just put on some fantastic music... and this came up...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-Y0SMitMpk

What with all these civilian graves being found, i thought it might fit!

with that, enjoy Easter y'all

Greg
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
crimea, russia, ukraine




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 11 (0 members and 11 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Jewish Refugees in Switzerland during World War II zanskar International affairs/politics 48 16.06.2010 15:58
Book about Switzerland in the second world war [recommendation?] telandy Other/general 14 18.06.2007 20:15


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 02:59.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0